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SB60 3 - Telling the “Hot” from the “Not”: Online Content Recommendations on the Internet Yonatan Gur, Columbia Business School, New York, NY, United States of America, ygur14@gsb.columbia.edu, Omar Besbes, Assaf Zeevi A new class of online services allows publishers to direct readers to other webbased content they may be interested in. We study this dynamic recommendation problem, focusing on challenges introduced by the massive stream of new content and the short shelf-life of articles, and focusing on topic-based popularity as basis for recommendations. Work is based on collaboration with a leading provider of online content recommendations. ■ SB60 60- Remington- Hyatt Predictability and Resource Allocation Decisions in Air Traffic Management Sponsor: Aviation Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Shervin Ahmad Beygi, Lead Operations Research Analyst, Metron Aviation Inc., 45300 Catalina Ct, Dulles, VA, 20166, United States of America, shervin.ahmadbeygi@metronaviation.com 1 - Performance-based Ground Delay Program Decision-making using Multiple Criteria : Single Airport Case Yi Liu, University of California, Berkeley, 107 McLaughlin Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720, United States of America, liuyi.feier@gmail.com, Mark Hansen We develop performance metrics for capacity, efficiency and predictability, and show how these metrics may be traded off in the design of Ground Delay Program (GDP) under capacity uncertainty. We link the performance to the decisions on GDP clearance time and the scope of the program. This capability allows the service provider to make performance-based GDP decisions using multiple criteria. 2 - Airline Voting Mechanisms for Parameter Selection for Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) Initiatives Vikrant Vaze, Member Research Staff, Philips Research North America, 345 Scarborough Road, Briarcliff Manor, NY, 10510, United States of America, vikrant.vaze@philips.com, Cynthia Barnhart Parameter selection for ATM initiatives is performed by the regulators while taking airline preferences into account. We design a voting scheme which can replace current ad-hoc methods. Strategic behavior is modeled using an integer programming formulation which explicitly accounts for tie-breaking rules. We solve for a Nash equilibrium using best response heuristics. We evaluate equilibrium properties including existence, uniqueness, convergence, system optimality and pareto optimality. 3 - Flight Cancellation Behavior and Delay Savings Estimates Michael Seelhorst, University of California Berkeley, 1710 Delaware St., Berkeley, CA, 94703, United States of America, mseelhorst@berkeley.edu, Mark Hansen A discrete choice model was used to infer airline flight cancellation preferences from a sample of on-time performance flight data. The predicted cancellation probabilities were then used as inputs to delay savings estimates, which were approximated with a continuous technique. The results from this work will be useful for incorporating flight cancellation decisions into system-wide delay forecasting models. ■ SB61 61- Russell- Hyatt Airport/Airline Operations Management Sponsor: Aviation Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Ahmed Ghoniem, Assistant Professor, University of Massachusetts Amherst, 121 Presidents Dr., Amherst, MA, 01003, United States of America, aghoniem@isenberg.umass.edu 1 - Enhanced Column Generation for Multiple-runway Aircraft Sequencing Problem Farbod Farhadi, Doctoral Student, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Isenberg School of Management, 121 Presidents Drive, Amherst, MA, 01003, United States of America, ffarhadi@som.umass.edu, Ahmed Ghoniem We address mixed mode multiple-runway aircraft sequencing problem. An MIP formulation is enhanced with valid inequalities and symmetry-defeating INFORMS Phoenix – 2012 100 constraints. An alternative set partitioning problem is solved by column generation using multiple algorithmic features that accelerate the convergence and tighten the duality gap. 2 - Aircraft Rescheduling under Operation Disruptions Mohamed Kharbeche, Postdoctoral Associate, Qatar University, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Doha, 2713, Qatar, mkharbec@qu.edu.qa, Ameer Al-Salem, Ahmed Ghoniem, Hanif D. Sherali We address optimization models for multiple-runway aircraft sequencing problems under operation disruptions, namely, aircraft delays, new aircraft arrivals and flight cancellations. Extensive computational results are reported for exact as well as heuristic methods. 3 - An Integrated Approach for Airline Flight Scheduling, Fleet Assignment, and Aircraft Routing Ki-Hwan Bae, Virginia Polytechnic and State University, 250 Durham Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, United States of America, kbae04@vt.edu, Hanif D. Sherali, Mohamed Haouari We propose a model that integrates certain aspects of the schedule design, fleet assignment, and aircraft routing processes, while considering various modeling features. Maintenance routing decisions as well as through-flight opportunities are additionally incorporated in our model, and we apply a series of different solution techniques to handle the large-scale model formulation, reduce its complexity, and enhance its solvability. 4 - Environmental Value of Optimal Separation in Continuous Descent Arrivals Heng Chen, Isenberg School of Management, 121 Presidents Drive, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003, United States of America, heng@som.umass.edu, Senay Solak Optimal separation in continuous descent arrivals (CDA) refers to the use of spacing policies that are shown to be optimal based on stochastic dynamic models. These models involve optimization of different objective structures defined as functions of runway utilization and airline operating costs. Considering some potentially implementable objective structures, we derive both analytical and numerical results that quantify the environmental value of using optimal separation policies in CDA. ■ SB62 62- Borein A - Hyatt Joint Session Auctions/MSOM: Auctions and Procurement Sponsor: Auctions & Manufacturing & Service Oper Mgmt Invited Session Chair: Gabriel Weintraub, Columbia Business School, 3022 Broadway, New York, NY, 10027, United States of America, gyw2105@columbia.edu Co-Chair: Sang Won Kim, Columbia Business School, 3022 Broadway, New York, NY, 10027, United States of America, skim14@gsb.columbia.edu 1 - Production Cost Forecasts and Procurement Efficiency in Supply Chains Tunay Tunca, Associate Professor, University of Maryland, Robert H. Smith School of Business, College Park, MD, 20742, United States of America, ttunca@rhsmith.umd.edu We study the role supplier cost forecasting under upstream competition in supply chain procurement and examine the implications on market and channel performance. We derive a channel competitiveness measure that combines the forecast information structure in the supply chain with upstream channel fragmentation and study its relationship with supply chain efficiency. We show that such a measure can be a better indicator of supply chain performance compared to traditional measures. 2 - Analysis of the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) Mechanism in Combinatorial Auctions Sang Won Kim, Columbia Business School, 3022 Broadway, New York, NY, 10027, United States of America, skim14@gsb.columbia.edu, Jay Sethuraman, Gabriel Weintraub Recent theoretical works show that the VCG mechanism can have undesirable properties, such as low revenues, in combinatorial auction settings. In contrast, recent empirical work shows the opposite for a specific important application. In this work, we develop new theoretical results for VCG mechanism that explain this apparent paradox. More broadly, we show when VCG is expected to perform well in applications and when it does not.
3 - Bundled Procurement for (Free) Technology Acquisition and Future Competition Leon Chu, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America, leonyzhu@usc.edu, Yunzeng Wang We study the effectiveness of a procurement mechanism of a buyer that bundles the product procurement with the technology acquisition. It turns out that each supplier has a dominant offering strategy for the technology provision that only depends on the technology difference of the suppliers and the ratio between the current project size and the future market size. We find that a ratio of 10% is sufficient for the suppliers to offer the best technologies for most reasonable market conditions. 4 - Procurement Auctions with Error-prone RFQs Yan Yin, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States of America, yinyan@umich.edu Many requests for quotes (RFQs) contain errors that will trigger re-design (and windfall supplier profits) after production has begun. We study how the buyer’s payment changes in the error rate, supplier’s design knowledge, and competition intensity. Surprisingly, we find that a higher error rate can sometimes decrease the buyer’s total payment by mitigating supplier windfall profits. We also show “pre-paying” re-design costs can be an alternative strategy to stem windfall profits. ■ SB63 63- Borein B- Hyatt Worker and Consumer Behaviors Contributed Session Chair: Corey Kiassat, PhD Candidate, University of Toronto, Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering, 5 King’s College Road, Toronto, M5S 3G8, Canada, ckiassat@mie.utoronto.ca 1 - Hiring An Envy-free Secretary is Costly Nguyen Truong, IEOR PhD Student, University of California- Berkeley, 2414 Dwight Way #6, Berkeley, CA, 94704, United States of America, nltruong@berkeley.edu We consider the minimum expected rank secretary problem, where it is well known that the optimal stopping mechanism selects an applicant with rank $\approx 3.8695$. This mechanism, however, may not deliver intended results: early (late) applicants wish to delay (move to earlier) their interviews. In order for each applicant to not envy any other’s position, the optimal expected rank of the hired applicant is shown to be $\Omega(\ln(n))$. As such, it is costly to have envy-free participants. 2 - Consumer Behavior Analysis in a Convenient Store Based on Shopping Path Data Chenqu Luo, Master Student, Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, Building Shunde Room South 607, Beijing, 100084, China, luocq11@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn, Lefei Li The consumers’ shopping path indicates much to their shopping behaviors. We develop a utility function that describes consumers’ preference on the next movement and use Beyesian method for estimation. Statistics show the shopping behavior in a convenient store is quite different from that in a supermarket. Moreover, we can identify typical path patterns that are closely related to the consumers’ target products and visiting time, which potentially support the managers’ category decisions. 3 - Enhancing System Performance through Failure Risk Analysis from a Worker Characteristic Perspective Corey Kiassat, PhD Candidate, University of Toronto, Faculty of Applied Science & Engineering, 5 King’s College Road, Toronto, M5S 3G8, Canada, ckiassat@mie.utoronto.ca, Dragan Banjevic We want to perform a failure risk analysis to enhance system performance. We are specifically interested in the effect of worker characteristics on failure risk. In the case of failures caused by workers, the Decision Maker (DM) must intervene to mitigate the risk. We develop a revenue model, using the proportional hazards model, to provide the DM with a cost-benefit analysis, balancing the advantage of risk reduction against the direct cost of the intervention method. 4 - Intrapersonal Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Choice Behavior: Evidence Sasha Bartashnik, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, 405 Lexington Avenue, 3rd Floor, New York, NY, 10174, United States of America, bartasha@mskcc.org, Paul Kattuman We examine whether the traditional binary classification of individuals into dynamically consistent exponential or present-biased quasi-hyperbolic discounters is absolute using De Nederlandsche Bank Household Survey data. Most individuals are internally heterogeneous. Intrapersonal heterogeneity is significant and fairly stable over time. Our results have significant implications for enhancing individual and societal welfare via individualized choice architectures, particularly in healthcare. INFORMS Phoenix – 2012 101 ■ SB66 SB66 66- Ellis West- Hyatt Joint Session DM/QSR: Sensor-based Health Informatics Sponsor: Data Mining & Quality, Statistics and Reliability Sponsored Session Chair: Hui Yang, Assistant Professor, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, 33620, United States of America, huiyang@usf.edu 1 - Spatiotemporal Change Detection Methods in Nonhomogeneous Change Size Sung Won Han, Fellow, Hoffmann-La Roche Inc., 340 Kingsland St., Nutley, NJ, United States of America, sung_won.han@roche.com, Seoung Bum Kim, Kyu Jong Lee, Hua Zhong In the classical change point detection problem, the change pattern is homogeneous over time and space, and the change size is sustained after the change. However, in practical spatotemporal health care surveillance, the underlying assumptions of problems are more complicated. Change size can be various over space, so the change size can be large at the center of outbreak but small at the edge. We investigate the existing methods to see how they perform under the complex cases. 2 - Localization of Myocardial Infarction using Vectorcardiogram Octant Transition Network Trung Le, Oklahoma State University, 322 Engineering North, Stillwater, Ok, 74075, United States of America, trung.le@okstate.edu, Satish Bukkapatnam Myocardial Infarction is a leading cause of death in the US. Detecting the location of MI in the early stages can significantly improve treatment efficiency and reduce mortality risks. We present an approach that uses the topological features of octant network reconstructed from VCG signals to detect and localize MI. Extensive tests using data of from Physionet indicate that transition features can differentiate healthy, inferior, anterior MI with >92% sensitivity and >93% specificity. 3 - Multiscale Adaptive Basis Function Modeling of Spatiotemporal Signals Hui Yang, Assistant Professor, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, 33620, United States of America, huiyang@usf.edu Mathematical models facilitate the characterization and recognition of underlying biological patterns. However, there are practical issues pertinent to model efficacy, robustness, and generality. This paper presents a multiscale adaptive basis function approach to model space-time cardiac pathological behaviors, using the “best matching” projections of characteristic waves onto a dictionary of nonlinear basis functions. The model performance is experimentally evaluated with realworld signals. 4 - Developing a Healthcare Cost Index using Advanced Analytics Dursun Delen, Professor, Oklahoma State University, 700 N. Greenwood Ave., Tulsa, OK, 74106, United States of America, dursun.delen@okstate.edu, James Hess Due to high variability, cost of healthcare has become one of the largest risk factors for today’s businesses. Establishment of a practical healthcare commodity index provides the pathway to transparency, which allows businesses to trade healthcare cost futures, and ultimately creates the open market environment necessary to encourage and support competitive pricing. This presentation focuses on the overall process of developing (based on data and analytics) such a healthcare cost index.
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