ThorEA - Towards an Alternative Nuclear Future.pdf

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Chapter 1: Thorium-fuelled ADSRs and their potential UK and global impact continued 1.4 Why thorium-fuelled ADSRs are an attractive proposition There is every possibility that industrialised countries will seek to decarbonise almost completely their electricity systems by 2040 (or even earlier) through improved energy efficiency, nuclear energy and growth in renewables. Indeed, such a scenario is already official UK government policy and the UK government hopes that other countries will follow a similar path. Within this scenario there is a clear need to provide more sustainable nuclear energy technology, and ensure affordable nuclear fuel in the long term. Broadly speaking, four sustainable nuclear technology options appear to be available. Option 1: PUREX reprocessing of LWR spent fuel for multiple MOX recycling, Option 2: Moving to critical fast reactors, Option 3: Commercialisation of nuclear fusion energy, Option 4: Moving to the thorium fuel cycle. Option 1 requires a plutonium economy, but might be favoured by moves away from PUREX techniques and towards more proliferation resistant and internationalisable approaches. Option 2, while attractive, remains subject to significant safety concerns owing to very high core power densities, short time constants and relatively slow reactor control response especially in systems with small Doppler feedbacks (such as are being promoted by the EU). Option 3, although a long standing goal, remains subject to significant technical uncertainties. Included within Option 4 are both conventional critical thoriumfuelled thermal nuclear reactors and ADSRs. The ADSR has the benefit that it does not need plutonium or enriched uranium (U-235) to initiate nuclear power generation in a critical thermal reactor. So, for example, in an export market there would be no need to supply fresh Pu-Th fuels to developing countries that are seeking to develop sustainable nuclear energy. Amongst the sustainable nuclear fission energy options the thorium ADSR has a distinct benefit that favours its internationalisation and widespread deployment. The thorium ADSR can operate with a once-through fuel cycle. Fresh fuel can be prepared in a benign and completely proliferation insensitive forms. No separated or separable plutonium or U-235 is required at any stage. Spent fuel can 14 Towards an Alternative Nuclear Future be protected by a particularly strong form of the so called ‘spent fuel standard’. Thorium-fuelled ADSR spent fuel can be sent for direct disposal without jeopardising sustainability. ADSR technologies are near-term and sustainable. Compared to other long-term future options thorium-fuelled ADSR systems have intrinsically good safety characteristics. Today raw uranium fuel forms a minor part (roughly 5%) of the lifetime levelised cost of nuclear power. In the event of a major global shift to nuclear power, and much sunk investment in long-lived nuclear power plants, there is a significant risk that global uranium demand in the 2030s could begin to exceed supply. Future prospects for uranium prices could then appear most unattractive when compared to thorium for ADSR systems. One might imagine a situation where a uranium fuelled PWR has a cost base in which perhaps as much as 50% of levelised costs of electricity are attributable to greatly inflated fuel prices. Crucially it is worth noting that, EU Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technology Platform notwithstanding, only one EU member state is enthusiastic for nuclear fuel reprocessing. If nuclear power undergoes a significant expansion without widespread acceptance of reprocessing then uranium prices will rise very steeply indeed (perhaps by a factor of 10 or more). It is to avoid such economic risks that a move towards thorium-fuelled ADSR should be favoured. In summary thorium-fuelled ADSRs will be: Technologically more accessible than fusion, Safer than critical fast reactors, More internationalisable and proliferation resistant than reprocessing, Cheaper than fuelling LWRs with uranium as demand for fuel begins to exceed supply. Thorium-fuelled ADSR technology is sustainable and yet it is consistent with once through fuel cycles. It is wholly consistent with all UK policy goals relating to climate change, nuclear power, reprocessing, and proliferation resistance, and as such deserves careful consideration as a significant component of an emerging nuclear strategy.
1.5 The potential global market for thorium-fuelled ADSR systems The analysis of the current nuclear market size and its future prospects offers a valuable insight on the market potential for thorium-fuelled ADSRs (see also the five forces analysis in Appendix IV). There are currently 436 nuclear reactors in operation worldwide, generating a total of 372 GWe, i.e. 15% of the electricity consumed globally. In its World Energy Outlook 2006 (IEA, 2007), the IEA forecasts an average 2.6% yearly increase in global electricity demand (4). In the IEA Electricity production/consumption (TWh/yr) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 World electricity consumption Potential expansion scenario Nuclear production (IEA alternative scenario) Nuclear production (IEA reference scenario) reference scenario, nuclear electricity production increases an average of 0.7% per year until 2030. The IEA alternative scenario foresees a growth of 2.3% in nuclear energy production. These scenarios are presented in the Figure 4 below, which also includes a potential expansion scenario in which global nuclear electricity share increases from 15% to 22% (current share in OECD countries) from 2007 to 2030, with an average growth of 4% per year. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Figure 4. Evolution of the global electricity demand and share of nuclear production for the three different IEA scenarios. These three growth scenarios would entail an increase in the nuclear energy production of 500, 2,000 and 4,800 TWh, respectively. Such an increase implies the commissioning of 65, 260 and 610 GWe, at 85% availability. The following table, Yearly growth Year Increase in electricity production from nuclear by 2030 (TWh) which summarises these scenarios, clearly indicates the enormous potential market for ADSR systems (~£100b), even if only 30% of the demand is met by ADSRs. New installed nuclear capacity by 2030 (GWe), 85% availability ADSRs (600 MWe) covering such demand Reference IEA 0.7% 500 68 114 Alternative IEA 2.3% 2,000 275 458 Potential expansion 4.0% 4,800 645 1,076 A report prepared by: the thorium energy amplifier association 15
Page 1 and 2: TOWARDS AN ALTERNATIVE NUCLEAR FUTU
Page 3 and 4: A report prepared by: the thorium e
Page 5 and 6: Appendices: Appendix I: ADSR Accele
Page 7 and 8: Executive Summary Recent developmen
Page 9 and 10: This report is structured as follow
Page 11 and 12: Thorium presents numerous advantage
Page 13: Operating reactors 500 40 450 400 3
Page 19 and 20: 2.3 Minimizing the economic cost of
Page 21 and 22: Chapter 3: An R&D Programme to secu
Page 25 and 26: Phase III: THOR Successful completi
Page 27 and 28: 3.6 Private Investment and construc
Page 31 and 32: Case Study 2: Letter of support fro
Page 33 and 34: 4.3 The patent landscape Categoriza
Page 35 and 36: 4.6 Future opportunities facilitate
Page 37 and 38: 4.7.1 Medical applications Both ADS
Page 39 and 40: 4.7.5 From megatons to megawatts: W
Page 41 and 42: For an operational lifetime of 40 y
Page 43 and 44: 5.2 Inward investment The delivery
Page 45 and 46: Chapter 6: The way forward In this
Page 49 and 50: A1.3 Accelerator reliability Accele
Page 51 and 52: Estimated thorium resources by coun
Page 53 and 54: FBTR, India: India’s first fast p
Page 55 and 56: Japan: Mitsui Engineering & Ship Bu
Page 57 and 58: EUROTRANS has proposed a route to a
Page 59 and 60: thorium oxide mixed fuels is access
Page 61 and 62: Appendix VIII: An historical UK per
Page 63 and 64: Bibliography Bryan, A. C. (2009). J
Page 65 and 66:
LBE - Lead-Bismuth Eutectic LEU - L
Page 67 and 68:
Q4. Early investment in accelerator
Page 69 and 70:
Q11. ThorEA focus upon FFAG technol
Page 71:
William J. Nuttall is a University
show all

ThorEA - Towards an Alternative Nuclear Future.pdf

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?