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impact of monetary policy on indian economy in the post-reform period

impact of monetary policy on indian economy in the post-reform period

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ensur<strong>in</strong>g this optimal split between m<strong>on</strong>etizati<strong>on</strong> and borrow<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> present, it<br />

would be possible to balance <strong>the</strong> future needs <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omy vis-a–vis <strong>the</strong> needs <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong><br />

government and <strong>the</strong>reby avoid <strong>the</strong> high <strong>in</strong>terest/<strong>in</strong>flati<strong>on</strong> trap and <strong>the</strong> subsequent<br />

specter <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> an ec<strong>on</strong>omic slowdown.<br />

Draw<strong>in</strong>g from recent experiences <strong>in</strong> India and abroad, Michael Debabrata Patra<br />

and Sunando Roy (2000) (29) assess <strong>the</strong> Indian approach to re<strong>in</strong>forc<strong>in</strong>g f<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />

stability. In <strong>the</strong> c<strong>on</strong>text <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> macroec<strong>on</strong>omic, macro and micro-prudential policies<br />

undertaken <strong>in</strong> India, <strong>the</strong> paper empirically evaluates <strong>the</strong> resp<strong>on</strong>ses <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> various<br />

c<strong>on</strong>stituents <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> bank<strong>in</strong>g system and f<strong>in</strong>ds differential resp<strong>on</strong>ses.<br />

Renu Kohli (2000) (30) analyzes <strong>the</strong> exchange rate behavior and its management<br />

<strong>in</strong> India. A scrut<strong>in</strong>y <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> exchange rate management strategy <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> RBI reveals a<br />

str<strong>on</strong>g commitment to exchange rate stability and keep<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> exchange rate aligned to<br />

<strong>on</strong>e <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> its fundamentals, i.e., <strong>the</strong> price level. It was found a positive resp<strong>on</strong>se <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> direct<br />

<strong>in</strong>terventi<strong>on</strong> activity, to a rise <strong>in</strong> exchange rate volatility. It was also found that<br />

<strong>in</strong>terventi<strong>on</strong> activity adjustments appear to be tied to <strong>the</strong> price level. The implicati<strong>on</strong>s<br />

for <strong>in</strong>terventi<strong>on</strong> activity are even more significant <strong>in</strong> a situati<strong>on</strong> where <strong>the</strong> capital<br />

account is liberalized. A rise <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> scale <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> future <strong>in</strong>terventi<strong>on</strong> would <strong>the</strong>refore imply a<br />

significant build-up <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> reserves.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> aftermath <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> currency crises around <strong>the</strong> world, <strong>the</strong> role <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> Central<br />

Bank‘s <strong>in</strong>terventi<strong>on</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> foreign exchange market has ga<strong>in</strong>ed an importance. It is<br />

obvious that such <strong>in</strong>terventi<strong>on</strong> affects <strong>the</strong> exchange rate <strong>in</strong> two ways; first, by affect<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>the</strong> extent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> excess demand <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> foreign exchange market, and <strong>the</strong>reafter through a<br />

complex <strong>in</strong>terplay <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> macro-ec<strong>on</strong>omic variables. The literature has addressed this<br />

issue by estimat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> so-called <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g>fset coefficients, a method that is ad hoc and that is<br />

marked by <strong>the</strong> c<strong>on</strong>spicuous absence <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> an underly<strong>in</strong>g macro-model. In this paper,<br />

Sum<strong>on</strong> Kumar Bhaumik and Hiranya Mukhopadhyay (2000) (31) build <strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> stylized<br />

Mundell-Flem<strong>in</strong>g model, and derive an estimable reduced form <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> expressi<strong>on</strong> that<br />

allows us to l<strong>in</strong>k exchange rate movements with <strong>the</strong> RBI‘S <strong>in</strong>terventi<strong>on</strong>s. The model<br />

itself, <strong>the</strong> subsequent empirical results <strong>in</strong>dicate that <strong>the</strong> effect <strong>on</strong> RBI‘s <strong>in</strong>terventi<strong>on</strong>s <strong>in</strong><br />

17

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