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impact of monetary policy on indian economy in the post-reform period

impact of monetary policy on indian economy in the post-reform period

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The modern central banker needs to be open to <strong>the</strong> reality <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> <strong>on</strong>go<strong>in</strong>g<br />

structural changes around him and to keep an open m<strong>in</strong>d as to how <str<strong>on</strong>g>m<strong>on</strong>etary</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>policy</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

might best be used to enhance <strong>the</strong> welfare <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> citizens for whom he is resp<strong>on</strong>sible<br />

(William, 2002) (56) . Accord<strong>in</strong>g to him, a l<strong>on</strong>ger-term commitment to price stability,<br />

supplemented by c<strong>on</strong>cerns as to how f<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>in</strong>stability might impede <strong>the</strong> pursuit <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

this objective, should be <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>in</strong>cipal objective for <str<strong>on</strong>g>m<strong>on</strong>etary</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>policy</str<strong>on</strong>g> today.<br />

Some commentators have recently argued that an exclusive focus <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>m<strong>on</strong>etary</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>policy</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> achiev<strong>in</strong>g price stability is <strong>in</strong>appropriate <strong>in</strong> a world where asset price<br />

misalignments and f<strong>in</strong>ancial imbalances are <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly prevalent. Bank for<br />

Internati<strong>on</strong>al Settlements (2003) (57) reviews <strong>the</strong> argument that <str<strong>on</strong>g>m<strong>on</strong>etary</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>policy</str<strong>on</strong>g> should<br />

react to asset price movements and/or f<strong>in</strong>ancial imbalances over and above <strong>the</strong>ir <str<strong>on</strong>g>impact</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

<strong>on</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>flati<strong>on</strong> outlook. It c<strong>on</strong>cludes that, while <str<strong>on</strong>g>m<strong>on</strong>etary</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>policy</str<strong>on</strong>g> makers probably<br />

should take note <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> such developments, <strong>the</strong> macroec<strong>on</strong>omic implicati<strong>on</strong>s can be<br />

adequately embraced with<strong>in</strong> an appropriately flexible and forward-look<strong>in</strong>g c<strong>on</strong>cept <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

<strong>in</strong>flati<strong>on</strong> targets. In a simple New Keynesian model, modified to allow for capital and<br />

debt accumulati<strong>on</strong>, <strong>the</strong> author <strong>the</strong>n shows that <strong>the</strong> possibility <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> credit crunches may<br />

affect <strong>the</strong> design <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> optimal <str<strong>on</strong>g>policy</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>in</strong> subtle and unexpected ways.<br />

The RBI has been us<strong>in</strong>g open market operati<strong>on</strong>s to sterilize <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>flows <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

foreign capital so as to c<strong>on</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> domestic <str<strong>on</strong>g>m<strong>on</strong>etary</str<strong>on</strong>g> expansi<strong>on</strong>. At <strong>the</strong> same time, it is<br />

<strong>in</strong>terven<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> foreign exchange markets. With downward price rigidity and shocks<br />

such as decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g foreign <strong>in</strong>terest rates and decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g import tariffs as <strong>the</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omy<br />

<strong>in</strong>tegrates <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> world ec<strong>on</strong>omy, it is imperative to revise <strong>the</strong> m<strong>on</strong>ey supply target so<br />

as to enable <strong>the</strong> ec<strong>on</strong>omy to adjust to <strong>the</strong>se shocks better (Errol D‘Souza, 2003) (58) . The<br />

current <str<strong>on</strong>g>policy</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> sterilizati<strong>on</strong> and c<strong>on</strong>ta<strong>in</strong>ment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong> m<strong>on</strong>ey supply restricts <strong>the</strong> process<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>in</strong>come generati<strong>on</strong> and macroec<strong>on</strong>omic adjustment <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> force <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>the</strong>se shocks.<br />

The management <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> liquidity poses a major challenge to <strong>the</strong> c<strong>on</strong>duct <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>m<strong>on</strong>etary</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>policy</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>in</strong> an envir<strong>on</strong>ment <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> f<strong>in</strong>ancial liberalizati<strong>on</strong>. Indranil Sen Gupta et al.<br />

(2003) (59) has attempted to assess liquidity c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> market for bank reserves <strong>in</strong><br />

terms <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> central bank balance sheet flows. They c<strong>on</strong>struct <strong>the</strong> c<strong>on</strong>cepts <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> aut<strong>on</strong>omous<br />

liquidity (AL) and discreti<strong>on</strong>ary liquidity (DL) <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Indian c<strong>on</strong>text and f<strong>in</strong>ds that <strong>the</strong>re<br />

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