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<strong>Gold</strong>: Will Risk Aversion<br />
Banish Correction Fears?<br />
SPECIAL PDF REPORT AUGUST 2011<br />
Nine kilograms of gold are seen before being reprocessed in a foundry of the Safina company in the village of Vestec near Prague REUTERS/Petr Josek<br />
• <strong>Gold</strong> edges down; eyes on Fed cues on stimulus<br />
• <strong>Gold</strong> surge draws prospectors, thieves worldwide<br />
• Record prices spawn new wave of China gold bugs<br />
• Japanese cash in on gold price boom<br />
• Panners, big miners scramble to join Australia's gold rush<br />
• Some gold bulls say time to cash in, rally overdone
COMMODITIES GOLD: WILL RISK SHIVER AVERSION AFTER BANISH U.S. CREDIT CORRECTION DOWNGRADE FEARS? AUGUST 2011<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> edges down; eyes on Fed cues on stimulus<br />
By Rujun Shen<br />
SINGAPORE, Aug 31 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
S pot<br />
gold edged lower on Wednesday as investors waited for more clues to economic conditions and watched to see if<br />
the U.S. Federal Reserve would deploy more stimulus measures, but the metal is poised for its biggest monthly gain<br />
since Nov. 2009.<br />
Cash gold prices rallied 2.6 percent in the previous session as minutes from a Fed policy meeting on Aug. 9 showed<br />
the central bank discussed a range of unusual tools it could use to help the economy and more quantitative easing remains an<br />
option.<br />
More quantitative easing would push up the inflation outlook and spur buying interest in gold, which is seen as a good hedge<br />
against inflation.<br />
"The next data point for gold is some sort of clarity out of the U.S. Fed over the next few weeks on whether they will deliver<br />
another round of quantitative easing, or not and just let their economy continue on a slow growth path rather than a supported<br />
high growth path," said Tom Price, global commodity analyst at UBS.<br />
The Fed is scheduled to meet on Sept. 20 to discuss options to help spur the faltering U.S. economy.<br />
Spot gold inched down 0.2 percent to $1,833.29 an ounce by 0254 GMT, headed for a monthly rise of 13 percent, its strongest<br />
gain since November 2009. It has risen nearly 30 percent so far this year, close to the gain for all of 2010.<br />
U.S. gold gained 0.4 percent to $1,836.50 an ounce, also on course for a 13-percent rise from a month earlier.<br />
Technical analysis suggested that gold could rise to $1,862 in the day, said <strong>Reuters</strong> market analyst Wang Tao.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> 24-hour technical outlook:<br />
( http://link.reuters.com/weg53s )<br />
Inflation adjusted gold price: ( http://r.reuters.com/pun62s )<br />
Investors are eyeing a string of labour market data due later this week, including unemployment and non-farm payrolls data<br />
on September 2, after the latest data showed plunging consumer confidence in August.<br />
In the absence of a third round of quantitative easing by the Fed, gold's rally will run out of steam and prices could drop towards<br />
the $1,400-$1,500 level from which the rally took off in early July, said Price of UBS.<br />
A gold bar of melted gold granules is cast at the Austrian <strong>Gold</strong> and Silver Separating Plant 'Oegussa' in Vienna August 26, 2011. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner<br />
2
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
ASIA PHYSICAL APPETITE STRONG<br />
Lofty prices have barely shaken Asian investors' interest in bullion, and upcoming festivals in China and <strong>India</strong> are expected give<br />
a further boost to gold demand.<br />
"We are seeing strong demand from China," said a Hong Kong-based dealer, "Physical demand is likely to be strong in September,<br />
October and November."<br />
<strong>India</strong>, the world's largest gold consumer, is approaching the festival and wedding season which peaks in late October's<br />
Deepavali.<br />
Retail interest in gold is also expected to rise in China ahead of the week-long National Day holiday in early October.<br />
Spot gold was little changed at $41.33, headed for a 3.8-percent rise in August, the second month of straight gains.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> surge draws prospectors, thieves worldwide<br />
By Natalia Konstantinovskaya and Tan Ee Lyn<br />
TOKYO/BANGKOK, Aug 31(<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
I<br />
t has been called the saint-seducing metal, with good reason.<br />
As the price of gold rests near record highs, people from Spokane to Bangkok are selling jewelry or buying bullion, some<br />
are giving up steady jobs to take to panning while theft of gold chains and watches is on the rise worldwide.<br />
"Panning for gold is becoming a real family affair, more popular now because of the gold price," says Cordell Kent, who<br />
sells do-it-yourself mining equipment in the 19th century Australian gold rush town of Ballarat.<br />
"Some people I know are making hundreds, even thousands of dollars on the weekends."<br />
Locals say rising prices and heavy rain earlier this year are leading to a surge in amateur prospectors, looking for flakes of gold<br />
washing up on river-beds.<br />
"We're seeing a whole new gold rush now around Ballarat," Kent says.<br />
Spot gold sells now for $1,830 an ounce, up nearly a third this year. With currencies and stocks faltering and prices of other<br />
commodities held back by slowing economic growth, the frenzy for gold has gone global.<br />
Many are cashing in on the gold they have at home -- or on gold teeth -- although the trend is slowing in the belief prices will<br />
rise further.<br />
"The most disgusting thing I had to deal with was a rotten tooth with a gold crown from a customer's grandmother who died,"<br />
said Munehiro Otsuki, the manager of a gold store in the Shinjuku district of western Tokyo.<br />
3
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
He also had a customer seeking to sell half a dozen Buddha statues which he had thought were gold, but were in fact brass.<br />
"When I called him this week after the evaluation, I could tell by the way his voice changed that he was extremely disappointed.<br />
He never came back."<br />
At another store in the Kanda district of Tokyo, manager Kenta Okiyama spoke of a middle-aged woman dressed in brandname<br />
clothes, the smell of her expensive perfume wafting across the store, who poured 30 rings of varying designs out on the<br />
table in front of her.<br />
She told Okiyama these were rings she had received from ex-husbands and boyfriends back in the heyday of the 1980s, Japan's<br />
free-spending "bubble economy" era.<br />
"When I showed her the 200,000 yen ($2,630) on the calculator screen, the expression on her face changed in a way I will<br />
never forget," Okiyama said. "She became so happy and smiled, saying 'I'll take it right now.'"<br />
Ritsuko Aoki, a 40-year-old Tokyo housewife, said she was selling old jewelry to buy domestic appliances.<br />
"We did not even think that my old gold accessories were worth anything before we saw news about people selling their gold<br />
on TV," she said. "If gold prices rise more, I'll look for more accessories in the depths of my closet."<br />
VOLATILITY, HEDGING<br />
But experts say sales of recycled gold will rise only about 5 percent this year, against 30 percent in 2009. "Either people are<br />
waiting till the price hits $2,000 or they are running out," says Mariabi Peenya, a street side dealer in New York's Diamond<br />
District.<br />
Nevertheless, canny investors see opportunities in gold's price volatility. Although prices have been rising steadily since the<br />
start of the year, gold has veered between as low as $1,600 per ounce to as high as $1,900 in August.<br />
And if dealing in physical gold, it's much easier since there are no brokerage fees or delays in payment.<br />
"We bought and sold twice and made a nice tidy sum," says Ivy Mok, a mother of two who lives in Bangkok. "Not very huge<br />
because we sold, and then the price went even higher."<br />
She and her husband dealt in small gold bars bought and sold in the well-guarded upstairs rooms of stores in the city's Chinatown<br />
district.<br />
"People buy and sell their gold bars right there," Mok said. "But it was very stressful for me because once you are on the<br />
streets, you are on your own with all your gold bars and you feel very vulnerable."<br />
Her fears are not unfounded. One of the unsavoury sides of gold's price surge has been a matching surge in crimes associated<br />
with the metal.<br />
4
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
Dubai, Casablanca, Pathanamthitta in southern <strong>India</strong>, all have been hit by major robberies linked to gold in recent weeks. In<br />
Ghana, a gold dealer is being accused of fraud after he alleged he was held up and robbed of gold he had promised to customers.<br />
Snatchings of gold chains are on the increase in London, China, across the United States and many other parts of the globe,<br />
but especially in <strong>India</strong>, which is the world's biggest buyer of gold.<br />
In northern Vietnam, a gold shop owner, his wife and 19-month-old daughter were killed and the shop robbed 10 days ago in<br />
one of the most violent crimes in the country in years. Another daughter was discovered cowering under a bed with her hand<br />
severed.<br />
In France, there were 183 armed robberies of jewellers in the first half of 2011, up from 138 in the year-earlier period, according<br />
to OCLCO, a police agency that tackles organised crime. "If gold is a safe haven for people with savings, it is also becoming it<br />
would seem a safe haven for armed robbers," said Frederic Doidy, an officer with OCLCO.<br />
Record prices spawn new wave of China gold bugs<br />
By Fayen Wong<br />
SHANGHAI, Aug 29 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
R<br />
ecord gold prices, rather than denting China's enthusiasm for bullion, have emboldened investors to plough more<br />
money into gold bars and riskier bullion-based derivatives.<br />
August is traditionally a slow month for Chinese jewellers, but many shops in Shanghai visited by <strong>Reuters</strong> reported<br />
surprisingly solid gold sales over the last few weeks, with shoppers unfazed by gold's stellar price gains over the past<br />
few months.<br />
"The surge in prices has sparked another gold-buying craze. The 50 gram and 100 gram gold bars were selling like hot cakes,"<br />
said Ms. Liu, a store manager at Shanghai's major jeweller Lao Feng Xiang Co Ltd , who said gold sales this month were up at<br />
least 30 percent from a year ago.<br />
The attitude of Chinese consumers -- expected to soon overtake <strong>India</strong>ns as the world's top buyers of gold -- will be an important<br />
influence on longer-term trends.<br />
Demand from the world's most populous country, which is adding hundreds of thousands of people to the ranks of affluent<br />
and middle-income consumers every year, implies that the long-term price floor for gold is set for a steady increase.<br />
Inflation adjusted gold price: ( http://r.reuters.com/pun62s )<br />
Inflation adjusted gold price: ( http://r.reuters.com/pun62s )<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> and silver bars are pictured at the Austrian <strong>Gold</strong> and Silver Separating Plant 'Oegussa' in Vienna August 26, 2011. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner<br />
5
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
BUYING ON DIPS<br />
That demand may also help smooth out temporary drops in prices.<br />
Spot gold has come off its record highs of over $1,900 an ounce hit last week, falling back to around $1,820 an ounce, but<br />
such dips appear only to embolden consumers.<br />
"Many Chinese investors and consumers see price corrections as buying opportunities. The view that gold is an enduring store<br />
of value is firmly rooted in Chinese cultural traditions," said Hou Xingqiang, a gold analyst at Jinrui Futures.<br />
"<strong>Gold</strong>'s rally over the past two years and the debt worries in the West have only strengthened Chinese investors' belief that<br />
they need to own the metal as an investment asset."<br />
There is no shortage of bulls on Wall Street forecasting even higher gold prices, with J.P Morgan predicting at least $2,500 an<br />
ounce by the end of the year.<br />
Amid the gold frenzy, China's banks and brokerages have been quick to offer paper gold investments to cash in on the trend.<br />
Trade sources at the Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China say demand for their gold-linked savings<br />
products has soared, while a growing army of retail investors are also eager to dive into the paper gold market.<br />
Expectations that gold will extend its bull run have also encouraged investors into the country's nascent gold derivatives markets,<br />
such as the forward and futures contracts on the Shanghai <strong>Gold</strong> Exchange (SGE) and Shanghai Futures Exchange.<br />
Volumes for SGE's most popular gold forward contract hit a record high of 350,670 grams in August -- double the volume in<br />
July.<br />
"More investors are moving into paper gold because of the lower capital costs. The prospect of making big and quick bucks by<br />
betting on gold's ascent is beginning to look like a fairly easy way to make money," said He Wei, a gold analyst at Nanhua Futures.<br />
RISKY BETS<br />
That could create other risks down the road, however, which authorities are trying to fend off.<br />
Investors buying gold swaps and forwards generally do so on margin, putting up only a part of the money themselves -- potentially<br />
setting themselves up for much bigger losses should the market turn sour.<br />
Alarmed by the surge and worried that the giddying climb in prices was encouraging excessive risk-taking, the SGE raised<br />
margin requirements twice this month to 12 percent.<br />
The explosive interest in gold investments has also led investors to move to less mainstream derivative products offered by<br />
over-the-counter exchanges that have sprung up in recent years, bringing about new risks given the lower margin requirements.<br />
The Tianjin Precious Metals Exchange, established in 2010, has seen a leap in demand for its swap contracts.<br />
"The capital outlay for swap contracts is even lower and it's becoming a popular investment instrument," said Han Qingsheng,<br />
a trading manager at <strong>Gold</strong> Day, a brokerage for the Tianjin Precious Metals Exchange.<br />
While the government is taking a somewhat cautious approach, people's thirst for new investment products will no doubt accelerate<br />
China's opening up of the gold sector -- a move long awaited by foreign banks.<br />
In a sign that more<br />
changes are afoot, the<br />
China Banking Regulatory<br />
Commission has already<br />
granted membership to<br />
two foreign banks to trade<br />
gold futures on the Shanghai<br />
Futures Exchange.<br />
Industry watchers said<br />
changes on the horizon<br />
include night trading for<br />
the SHFE's gold contracts<br />
and expanding the list of<br />
domestic banks allowed to<br />
import gold -- a big step<br />
towards a full liberalisation<br />
of the sector.<br />
"As physical demand increases,<br />
the government<br />
will need to increase the<br />
6
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
supply avenues and some foreign banks have an advantage because of links to overseas mints or foreign trades," said a senior<br />
executive at foreign bank.<br />
"This would be the next step we're all waiting for."<br />
Managed money cuts gold length, short copper<br />
NEW YORK, Aug 26 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
M oney<br />
managers trimmed their net length in gold futures and options for a third straight week, even as bullion<br />
prices shot up by another 7 percent to fresh records above $1,900 an ounce, data on Friday showed.<br />
But the key speculative group showed some signs of doubt in the copper market, switching to a net short position<br />
in the industrial metal for the first time since October 2009.<br />
Managed money in COMEX gold declined to 201,294 lots in the week ended Aug. 23, <strong>Reuters</strong> data showed. That was down by<br />
17,110 lots from the prior week and a gradual unwind from the 253,653-lot position recorded in the week of Aug. 7, which<br />
marked the biggest net long position in more than five years.<br />
During the week covered by the data, the price of spot gold rallied another 7 percent to a fresh record at $1,911.46 an ounce,<br />
as persistent worries about global economic growth burnished bullion's safe-haven appeal.<br />
As those growth concerns added fuel to gold's summer rally, it dented copper's demand outlook and forced hedge funds and<br />
other large speculators to turn net short by 332 lots. This was the first time the group held a net short position in the metal<br />
since the week of Oct. 11, 2009, when they were short 2,391 lots.<br />
Speculators increased their exposure in silver futures and options by 6,437 lots to 29,764 contracts, which marked the highest<br />
level since the week of April 24.<br />
"Safe haven" assets start to look risky<br />
By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent<br />
LONDON, Aug 26 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
T<br />
his year's heady bout of risk aversion on financial markets has ratcheted up demand for gold, U.S. Treasuries and the<br />
Swiss franc to levels that suggest they may no longer be the "safe havens" they are billed as.<br />
Some investors see all three as vulnerable to a sharp sell-off should the global economic environment improve over<br />
the coming months, or simply because prices are too high in the absence of outright financial catastrophe.<br />
"A safe asset is something that is going to be safe across economic environments," said William De Vijlder, chief investment<br />
officer at BNP Paribas Investment Partners. "It means you'd better make sure your forecast is right." There are already signs<br />
the demand froth is coming off, at least in gold and the Swiss franc.<br />
All three safe havens highlighted have distinct features, so losses from renewed demand for riskier assets would not hit each<br />
equally. <strong>Gold</strong>, for one, might fare better given that underlying demand for the metal is not all based on risk aversion.<br />
But none are "safe" in all circumstances, and their remarkable rises this year may now pose some risk for those holding them.<br />
Graphic on "Safe havens" ( http://r.reuters.com/jes43s )<br />
Ten-year U.S. Treasuries recently traded with yields below 2 percent -- their lowest in generations -- and, according to Merrill<br />
Lynch data, have returned some 11 percent over the summer.<br />
The Swiss franc has risen by 15.3 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively, to record highs against the dollar and euro , prompting<br />
moves from the Swiss National Bank to rein its currency in. Perhaps most spectacularly, gold has risen as much as 33<br />
percent, taking it to just below $2,000 an ounce -- a startling performance on top of a decade-long rally that has seen the<br />
metal's price rise more than 600 percent.<br />
In the last few days, however, there has been a sharp sell-off -- nothing really to dent the asset's major gains, but a reminder<br />
of how quickly heady gains can run out of steam.<br />
"It is not difficult to believe that gold could correct a reasonably good amount," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer at<br />
London & Capital, adding that this would not necessarily undermine its long-term bullish trend.<br />
DIFFERENT RISKS<br />
Of the three assets benefiting richly from the slowing global economy, lower interest rates and debt crises in the euro zone<br />
and elsewhere, gold is arguably the least vulnerable to a huge reversal. It offers no yield or dividend and can rise and fall rapidly<br />
based on investor fear alone.<br />
But the drivers behind its rise are diverse and it may hold up better than others when economic conditions change.<br />
Demand has been bolstered by central banks buying the metal as part of their diversification of foreign reserves. Even more<br />
significant may be the buying of bars and coins by newly wealthy Asian consumers, notably those in China.<br />
7
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
The World <strong>Gold</strong> Council estimates there was a roughly 25 percent rise in demand for gold from Chinese consumers between<br />
the second quarters of 2010 and 2011,<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> is also not particularly subject to what BNP Paribas' De Vijlder calls the "feedback loop", which occurs when a significant<br />
price rise begins to affect economies and prompts policy changes by governments.<br />
The same cannot be said for the Swiss franc, which has also wobbled recently courtesy of the SNB's moves to cap its gains.<br />
The SNB has cut official rates to near zero and pumped out more money to lower the franc's value. It has also sold francs in<br />
the forwards market to drive rates lower and make it expensive to hold the currency.<br />
This is only a part of what it could do, meaning investors will have to battle to protect gains -- something that detracts<br />
strongly from the concept of a "safe haven". Charlie Morris, head of absolute returns at HSBC Global Asset Management, believes<br />
investors have been treating the Swiss franc as something that it is not.<br />
"It is easy to forget that the Swissie is a relatively minor currency and not the global liquidity pool that it is cracked up to be,"<br />
he said.<br />
'POINTLESS AND DANGEROUS'?<br />
U.S. Treasuries, meanwhile, are at the point where investing in them is only slightly more lucrative than putting money under<br />
the mattress.<br />
They are supported, like gold, by outside-the-market factors such as Federal Reserve buying and huge inflows from China.<br />
Some of that will change as the U.S. economy improves or as Beijing diversifies.<br />
Mainly, though, yields of around 0.2 percent for short paper and only 2 percent for long, offer little. It would not take much of<br />
an inflationary spike or economic rebound to prompt a rush to the exit.<br />
"Treasuries are either pointless at the short end or dangerous at the long end," Morris said. "Either we have deflation and<br />
bonds deliver paltry yields ... or, more likely, inflation resurges and investors in bonds lose their shirts."<br />
A man melts down gold jewellery in Los Angeles, California August 23, 2011. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson<br />
8
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> loses more shine after CME margin hike<br />
By Rujun Shen<br />
SINGAPORE, Aug 25 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
G<br />
old fell more than 1 percent on Thursday, extending the previous session's losses, after the CME Group raised trading<br />
margins by the most in over two and a half years to curb volatility in the bullion that had surged to dizzying<br />
heights.<br />
Spot gold dropped by more than 4 percent on Wednesday, its biggest drop since December 2008, as investors liquidated<br />
positions after the precious metal surged nearly 35 percent this year to a record high above $1,911 on Tuesday.<br />
CME increased margin requirements on its gold futures contract by 27 percent, the second hike in a month, following similar<br />
moves by the Shanghai <strong>Gold</strong> Exchange and Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange earlier this month.<br />
Data suggesting the U.S. economy was facing a slowdown instead of a recession also took the shine off safer assets like gold.<br />
"People made a very good profit in a very short time," said David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup.<br />
"Even though they may expect prices to further rise in the medium term they'll just take money off the table and book profits,<br />
especially if it has been a very high yield."<br />
Spot gold slipped 1.2 percent to $1,730.29 an ounce by 0519 GMT. On Wednesday, bullion dropped 4.3 percent, its biggest<br />
daily drop since Dec. 1, 2008.<br />
U.S. gold fell 1.3 percent to $1,733.40. U.S. gold futures lost 5.6 percent on Wednesday, the steepest daily drop since March<br />
2008. Helping fuel Wednesday's sell-off was data showing new orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose more<br />
than expected in July, offering hopes that the ailing economy could dodge another recession and boosting risk appetite across<br />
markets.<br />
Before this week's drop, bullion had surged more than $400 since July and scored consecutive record highs as a struggling<br />
U.S. economy and crippling debt crisis in Europe boosted gold's safe-haven appeal.<br />
Spot gold has lost more than 9 percent from its all-time high of $1,911.46 hit on Tuesday. The price surged nearly 10 percent in<br />
the six-day climb before the decline.<br />
An employee counts some gold bars before he sells them to a customer at a gold shop in Hanoi August 23, 2011 REUTERS/Kham<br />
9
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> 24-hour technical outlook: ( http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/WT1/20112508095642.jpg )<br />
NOT SAFE ANYMORE?<br />
"People always refer to gold as safe haven. When we introduce volatility to the equation, it doesn't seem so safe anymore,"<br />
said a Singapore-based trader, but added that gold's luster looks intact. "Many leveraged longs are going to leave it alone for<br />
a while. And when prices come down like this, it might be a buying opportunity for real money account like central banks."<br />
Technical charts suggest that a medium-term uptrend for gold is intact even after the sharp drop over the past two sessions,<br />
with a rebound likely to push it to $1,784, said <strong>Reuters</strong> market analyst Wang Tao.<br />
Holdings in the SPDR <strong>Gold</strong> Trust dropped 2.2 percent on the day to 1,232.314 tonnes by Aug. 24, its lowest in more than a<br />
month and down 6 percent from a one-year high of 1,309.922 tonnes hit on Aug. 8.<br />
ANZ has raised its forecast for gold prices, expecting prices to peak at $2,200 in the second quarter of 2012, from a previous<br />
forecast of $1,800.<br />
"The substantial revision has been propped up by an unusual lack of support for the US dollar under the current uncertain<br />
financial market conditions - effectively channelling stronger than normal safe-haven flows to gold," said ANZ analysts in a<br />
research note.<br />
CME hikes gold margins as expected; second time in Aug<br />
By Antonita Madonna Devotta and Rujun Shen<br />
BANGALORE/SINGAPORE, Aug 24 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
T he<br />
CME Group on Wednesday raised margins on gold futures by about 27 percent, the biggest hike in more than two<br />
and a half years and the second increase in a month, as gold prices fell sharply after a record-setting rally.<br />
The hike was widely anticipated after the Shanghai <strong>Gold</strong> Exchange announced to raise margin requirements on some<br />
of its gold forward contracts earlier this week.<br />
The CME group raised maintenance margins on COMEX 100 <strong>Gold</strong> Futures for speculators to $7,000 per contract from<br />
$5,500, effective after the close of business on Thursday.<br />
The margin increase came as the most-active contract dropped 5.6 percent on Wednesday in its worst day since March 2008,<br />
after strong U.S. durable goods orders data prompted profit taking from the safe-haven's record high on Tuesday.<br />
A goldsmith works on a gold bangle at a workshop in Kolkata August 1, 2011. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri<br />
10
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
Prices of the contract slid to an intra-day low of $1,744 an ounce on Thursday after the CME announcement, before bouncing<br />
up to $1,763.20 by 0241 GMT. Prices hit an all-time high of $1,917.9 on Aug. 23.<br />
"A lot of hot money has entered the complex and the rally was done too much in too short a time," said David Thurtell, an analyst<br />
at Citigroup.<br />
"Last 24 hours there was definitely profit-taking. With the margin hike, if speculators don't have the money to pull out as extra<br />
margin they'll just cut their positions. That contributed to the liquidation."<br />
The new margin would be roughly 4 percent of a lot of the most-active contract, up from about 3 percent.<br />
The total aggregate margin call on COMEX gold futures contracts would be nearly $1.6 billion, based on calculations on the<br />
total open interest by the end of Aug. 23.<br />
CME hike announcement: ( http://link.reuters.com/fyk43s )<br />
Spot gold rallied about $400 dollar from the beginning of July to a record above $1,911 on Tuesday, on concerns about the<br />
faltering U.S. economy and a lingering euro zone crisis. The exchange operator also raised initial margins on COMEX 100<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> Futures for speculators, to $9,450 from $7,425 per contract.<br />
Margins are deposits paid by investors in futures markets, where full payment is made when contracts mature to an exchange<br />
or clearing house to cover the risk of default by that investor and typically are based on the largest most-likely daily market<br />
move.<br />
Japanese cash in on gold price boom<br />
By Chikako Mogi and Chikafumi Hodo<br />
TOKYO, Aug 24 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
F<br />
or Eriko Ebina, standing outside a downtown Tokyo medical equipment store that has a side business buying gold, the<br />
recent surge in prices for the precious metal was just too tempting.<br />
"For more than 30 years, I kept gold jewellery mother bought for me, and with media saying prices are high, I thought<br />
I would sell them now except for a few keepsakes from her," said Ebina, in her 60s.<br />
"I earned more than I thought they were worth. I'm not interested in buying gold."<br />
It is sellers like Ebina who will offset surging investment into gold funds in Japan, which should make the country a net exporter<br />
for the sixth year in a row. The assets of Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp's physical gold exchange traded fund<br />
(ETF), Japan's first backed by metal stored in the country, have grown by a quarter since end-July to 21.8 billion yen ($284.9<br />
million) as of Aug. 23.<br />
"Investors are seriously treating our gold ETF as a legitimate asset class, just like investing in equities, bonds and currencies,"<br />
said Osamu Hoshi, deputy general manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust.<br />
"They see a need to diversify their assets after seeing volatile moves in currencies and stocks and others," Hoshi said.<br />
GRAPHIC of Japan gold demand: ( http://link.reuters.com/cah43s )<br />
PDF on gold's run to record: ( http://link.reuters.com/syg43s )<br />
A downgrade of the U.S. sovereign debt rating amid a deteriorating outlook for the world's largest economy, as well as a<br />
spreading European debt crisis, have triggered a rush to gold that has boosted prices by 14 percent this month.<br />
"Inflows have become especially big this month as fears over both the U.S. dollar and the euro have intensified," said Ryosuke<br />
Okazaki, chief investment officer at ITC Investment Partners. ITC's Japan <strong>Gold</strong> Funds have about about 2 billion yen under<br />
management.<br />
Still, ETF assets are a fraction of physical holdings, and Japanese institutional investors such as pension funds remain reluctant<br />
about exposure to commodities.<br />
"They could be holding commodities in hedge funds, like managed futures, but I don't think many want to invest directly in<br />
gold or other commodities even if returns are extremely attractive," said a fund manager of an industrial material maker, who<br />
supervises about 50 billion yen in corporate pensions.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> prices may be hitting successive records, but for those buying in yen, they are still down nearly a fifth from a record high<br />
in 1980. There is also no strong incentive to buy. "The current core investor generation has not experienced real damage to<br />
the yen's value or a crisis which rocked the country," said Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Astmax Co Ltd.<br />
"There is no sense of fear in Japan right now as there is in Europe or in the United States. So, investors who own gold focus<br />
only on how to cash in from the rise in prices," he said.<br />
PHYSICAL SALE PREVAILING<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> in Japan is not so much associated with risk aversion, but more as an asset that many bought when prices languished for<br />
30 years.<br />
11
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
The retail price at Japan's largest bullion house Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo was 4,745 yen per gram on Aug. 23, excluding the 5<br />
percent consumption tax, the highest since September 1980. Retail gold peaked in January 1980 at 6,495 yen.<br />
Selling of gold has snowballed since the start of August, unlike in January 2008 when a spike in gold prices led to an explosive<br />
but short-lived gold sales boom, said Osamu Ikeda, Tanaka's general manager.<br />
"Selling accelerated in August as gold rallied to historic highs, and that is symbolic of a matured Japan," Ikeda said.<br />
Ikeda said the amount of gold for investment purposes that the house bought back from customers more than doubled to 10.2<br />
tonnes as of Aug. 23 from 4.3 tonnes in July. At the Aug. 23 prices this would be worth around 48.4 billion yen.<br />
Sellers are not limited to retired or retiring generations nor shops confined to established bullion houses.<br />
"<strong>Customer</strong>s bring all sorts of jewelry, gold cups, watch, teeth, but sometimes desperate ones bring fake gold or even their talismans,"<br />
said Seiichi Nakamura, manager at confectionary retail chain Nakamuraya.<br />
"A lot of stores of this kind appeared recently, so that it turned into sort of a survival game," he said, adding the number of<br />
customers, mainly women in their 40-50s, had doubled to 20 a day in recnt days.<br />
Media playing up the surge in gold is also driving the move.<br />
"The media helped us, I think. When people learned there is a boom for selling gold now, they decided to do it too. It's like a<br />
chain effect," said shop manager Kenta Okiyama at antique dealer Otakaraya.<br />
Tanaka Kikinzoku's Ikeda said buying interest has picked up, even in the physical market, from those in their 30s and 40s, although<br />
sellers still outnumber buyers by 5 to 1. "It used to be one-way flows of just sellers. Now, there are sellers to book profits<br />
and some buyers betting on further rises in prices," Ikeda said.<br />
NET GOLD EXPORTER<br />
As long as Japanese remain sellers as the price rallies, Japan is set to be a net gold exporter for the sixth consecutive year in<br />
2011.<br />
But households' growing desire to profit from a bullish market outlook may cap the total export volumes below the 2008 peak<br />
of 95.5 tonnes, just as they did last year. Between January-June, Japan exported a total 45.8 tonnes of gold, compared to 46<br />
tonnes the same period a year go. Net exports at 43 tonnes exceeded 39 tonnes a year earlier.<br />
Japan exported a total of 91 tonnes of gold and imported 13 tonnes in 2010, resulting in record net exports of 78 tonnes, about<br />
a quarter of annual output from top miner China.<br />
Japanese households were seen holding about 1,500 tonnes of gold last year, so the net exports may have reduced the<br />
amount to around 1,400 tonnes now, industry officials say.<br />
"There is still lots of gold in this country. Net exports could hit records again this year," Ikemizu said.<br />
12
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
Some gold bulls say time to cash in, rally overdone<br />
By Frank Tang and Rujun Shen<br />
NEW YORK/SINGAPORE, Aug 24 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
A<br />
s gold prices near $2,000 an ounce, some bulls say it's time to take money off the table after the safe-haven rally<br />
extended too far too fast in recent weeks.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> investors at several firms said gold prices could correct sharply, citing overvaluation. While that does not mean<br />
prominent bulls are now bears, they recommended investors take profit on gold holdings, after the precious metal<br />
traded briefly above $1,900 on Tuesday for the first time. Spot gold rebounded more than 1 percent to above $1,853 an<br />
ounce on Wednesday after sliding more than 3 percent in the previous session in its biggest daily fall in a year and a half.<br />
Investors in droves have sought a refuge in bullion from a stock market meltdown, fears about sovereign debts in Europe and<br />
the United States and worries about a recession.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> has gained nearly 9 percent in just the last six sessions before Tuesday's fall and by more than $400 since July.<br />
Independent investor Dennis Gartman, who has long been bullish on gold priced in non-U.S. currencies, said he was reducing<br />
his long positions on gold priced in euro and sterling terms. "Perhaps things have become a bit too frothy and reduced rather<br />
than increased exposure seems reasonable and wise," Gartman said.<br />
Gartman said gold's rally was not sustainable after SPDR <strong>Gold</strong> Trust's total assets surpassed that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ,<br />
making GLD the largest exchange-traded fund in the world for the first time. "Such senseless things happen after periods of<br />
euphoric rises in prices of some markets," Gartman said.<br />
A resurgence in investment demand has fuelled gold's rally in the past decade, particularly during periods of global economic<br />
slowdown, growing from 4 percent of total demand in 2000 to over 39 percent in 2010, according to estimates from Citigroup.<br />
"However, we caution that this very aspect that provided support for gold over this time may result in its downfall going forward,"<br />
the bank said in a note. "Even a slowdown, let alone a decline, in net investment flows can have a materially negative<br />
impact on the gold price from current levels." Still, Wednesday's bounce showed gold's appeal is far from fading as buyers<br />
picked up the precious metal after its sharp decline on Tuesday.<br />
"It's premature to call it a correction. But there is quite a bit of downside risk if gold breaks below $1,800 on a sustained basis.<br />
It may go lower to $1,700 or so," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures. Ong said the current environment of low interest<br />
rates and a weak dollar remain supportive of gold prices, adding that the potential of further quantitative easing by the<br />
Federal Reserve to boost an ailing U.S. economy also increases gold's appeal in the longer term.<br />
BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE NEWS?<br />
But UBS metals strategist Edel Tully said the Swiss bank "has certainly noticed an increase in clients looking to book profits."<br />
In a note on Tuesday, Tully also cautioned that the risk of more margin hikes from CME Group was rising, after the U.S. commodity<br />
exchange raised margins by 22 percent earlier in August.<br />
Fund managers said the metal was bid up as an inflation hedge on expectations of further U.S. monetary easing, and bullion<br />
could sell off if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke does not announce a new bond-buying stimulus program at an annual<br />
Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday.<br />
"There is some potential degree of 'buy the rumor, sell the news' on any future Fed policy that may come out at Jackson Hole.<br />
Investors might want to have that on the back of their minds as well," said Michael Cuggino, portfolio manager of the $15 billion<br />
Permanent Portfolio Funds. "<strong>Gold</strong> being as volatile as it is, it can go down in $100 to $200 and not really blink an eye,"<br />
Cuggino said.<br />
Analysts said anything short of a third round of quantitative easing would likely provide limited support for gold as the Fed<br />
had already vowed to keep interest rates low into 2013. Cuggino said that investors should stay put and not add new gold positions<br />
at current prices, even though the metal is still a safe haven and an integral part of an investment portfolio in longer<br />
term.<br />
Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, a broker-dealer with $54 billion in assets, said that on<br />
charts, gold is vulnerable for a sharp pullback as it is trading at $400 above its 200-day moving average, a sign of overbuying.<br />
"From a purely technical standpoint, I think it'd be wise to take some chips off the table," Luschini said.<br />
SLOW SEASONAL DEMAND<br />
"Given that we are in the seasonally slow period for physical demand, we believe prices could be subject to temporary corrections<br />
as profit-taking emerges," Barclays Capital said in a research note. Scrap supply teased out by lofty prices and potential<br />
margin requirement hikes could act as temporary barrier to gold's ascent, it added. But Barclays said those factors are only<br />
likely to temper the rally intermittently.<br />
"Beyond this, we believe the macro environment is evolving increasingly favourably for gold, and a return of market confidence<br />
in the state of the global economy, coupled with high and rising real interest rates and controlled inflation, will be required to<br />
quell its gains," said Barclays. Barclays has forecast prices to average $1,800 in the second half of this year and $2,000 in<br />
2012.<br />
13
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
SocGen raises 2011, 2012 gold price forecasts<br />
Aug 22 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
S ociete<br />
Generale on Monday raised its gold price forecast for this year and 2012, predicting that citing political and<br />
economic policy inertia with regard to debt management will continue to build appetite for the metal.<br />
The bank raised its average gold price forecast to $1,950 an ounce for the fourth quarter of 2011, pushing its 2011 annual<br />
average to $1,660 an ounce.<br />
"$1,900/oz is already within reach, and we expect levels of over $2,000/oz to be achieved before year-end," SocGen said in a<br />
note to clients. The bank also raised its 2012 forecasts to average $2,275 per ounce, and sees the metal trading around $2,500<br />
an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2012.<br />
"A combination of continued highly accommodative monetary policy, anemic growth, and continuing sovereign debt problems<br />
will continue to push gold to new highs," SocGen added.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> hit a third consecutive all-time high near $1,900 on Monday after staging its biggest weekly gain in more than two years<br />
last week. Late Monday, spot gold was up 1.6 percent at $1,888.90 an ounce, having earlier hit a record $1,894.10.<br />
Shanghai <strong>Gold</strong> Exchange lifts margins for gold forwards<br />
SHANGHAI, Aug 23 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
T<br />
he Shanghai <strong>Gold</strong> Exchange (SGE) said on Tuesday that it will raise trading margins on three gold spot-deferred contracts<br />
to 12 percent from 11 percent from Aug. 26 to limit trading risks following recent wild price swings.<br />
It would also widen daily trading limits for those contracts to 9 percent, up from 7 percent, the SGE said on its website.<br />
The contracts to be affected include Au(T+D) , Au(T+N1) and Au(T+N2) . The SGE said it was closely eyeing silver contract<br />
price movements and would consider raising trading margins, transaction fees or costs of rolling over forward contracts<br />
should volatility persist.<br />
This is the second time the SGE has raised collateral requirements on gold forward contracts this year -- both times took place<br />
in August -- as international gold prices hit a series of news highs over the past few weeks, boosted by a flight to safety on<br />
worries over stalling U.S. recovery and crippling sovereign debt in the euro zone.<br />
A worker casts a gold bar of melted gold jewellery at the Austrian <strong>Gold</strong> and Silver Separating Plant 'Oegussa' in Vienna February 28, 2011. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner<br />
14
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
The SGE's move also comes just two weeks after CME Group Inc upped margins on its gold futures by a whopping 22 percent<br />
on Aug. 11 -- the biggest rise since Feb 2010, reflecting growing concern among exchanges around the world that the metal's<br />
bull-run could be spurring traders to take excessive risks. Spot gold soared to an all-time high above $1,910 on Tuesday, on<br />
course for its biggest monthly rise in 29 years, as persistent worries about global economic growth burnished bullion's safehaven<br />
appeal.<br />
For a technical outlook on gold: ( http://link.reuters.com/waw33s )<br />
For inflation-adjusted gold price: ( http://r.reuters.com/pun62s )<br />
TRADING VOLUMES JUMP<br />
Trading volumes on the SGE's most popular Au (T+D) contract surged this month, with a daily average 32,627 trades, nearly<br />
double July's daily average of 16,376. With seven more trading days left, monthly volumes on the Au(T=D) contract for August<br />
also looks set to strike a new record, beating the high of 563,188 trades in December 2009. The contract has recorded<br />
522,280 trades so far this month. Margins are deposits buyers and sellers have to put down as collateral with an exchange to<br />
cover the risk of default.<br />
An increase in margin requirements would make it more expensive for speculators and other traders to play in the market.<br />
The SGE offers a total of 12 spot and forward contracts for various precious metals, including gold, silver and platinum. A spot<br />
-deferred contract is a forward contract that gives a seller the right to roll the contract forward rather than make delivery on a<br />
specific date.<br />
TECHNICALS-<strong>Gold</strong> prices to repeat 1980 climb -Wang Tao<br />
SINGAPORE, Aug 22 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
T he<br />
current bull run in spot gold prices could mirror the climb to dizzying heights seen in 1980, <strong>Reuters</strong> market analyst<br />
Wang Tao said, adding that bullion prices were increasingly becoming emotion driven.<br />
In 1980, gold climbed to $835, completing a bull cycle that started at $34.95 in 1970, Wang said.<br />
That cycle was corrective, made of three small waves labeled as "a-b-c", and the wave "c" traveled 4.618 times the<br />
length of the wave "a".<br />
"That ratio may repeat under the present scenario, indicating gold could hit about $4,000 over the next few years," Wang said.<br />
But he cautioned that it was too aggressive to target $4,000 right now, saying he would rather target $2,345 by the end of this<br />
year, which is the 261.8 percent Fibonacci projection level of the current wave "C", based on his wave count and a Fibonacci<br />
projection analysis.<br />
The wave "C" is composed of five small waves, with the current rally labeled as a wave "V", the final stage of a five-wave cycle,<br />
Wang said.<br />
Five-tael (6.65 ounces or 190 grams) gold bars are seen at a jewellery store in Hong Kong in this August 11, 2011 illustration photo REUTERS/Bobby Yip<br />
15
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
The final stage is often the fiercest rally in a commodities market, as seen in the sharp rise over the past several weeks, he said.<br />
While several political and financial uncertainties -- such as high inflation and oil price, Richard Nixon's action to detach the<br />
U.S. dollar from gold and Soviet intervention in Afghanistan -- led to the rally in gold to $835 in 1980, there are even more<br />
reasons for a surge in prices now, Wang said. "Today's situation could be worse, as risk aversion has taken tight hold of people's<br />
psychology."<br />
The G-7 and U.S. government are seen running out of resources to rescue the economy, which has been hit hard by the bankruptcies<br />
following the 2008 subprime debt, persistent worries that the sovereign debt crisis in euro zone peripheral countries<br />
may spread to bigger regional economies, high inflation in emerging markets and soaring commodities prices.<br />
Central banks from South Korea, Mexico and Russia to Thailand have been adding gold to their reserves in a sign of waning<br />
faith in the West's benchmark bonds and currencies like the dollar and the euro. Spot gold prices could rise further towards<br />
the 1980's inflation-adjusted record price of just below $2,500, Wang said.<br />
** Wang Tao is a <strong>Reuters</strong> market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.<br />
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult<br />
his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the<br />
analyses.**<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> shines as Swiss franc's haven appeal dims<br />
By Jan Harvey and Jessica Mortimer<br />
LONDON, Aug 22 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
M<br />
oves by the Swiss National Bank to curb strength of the Swiss franc will fuel investors' insatiable demand for gold,<br />
adding to its relentless rise to new record highs as confidence in the franc as a safe store of value dwindles.<br />
Analysts say this could help gold vault $2,000 an ounce within the coming weeks, with the potential for very large<br />
spikes if risk aversion on financial markets gains momentum.<br />
The Swiss franc has fallen sharply from record highs since the SNB bank vowed on Aug. 10 to take steps to curb franc<br />
strength. The Swiss central bank has flooded the franc market with liquidity and sold the currency via swaps on the forward<br />
market to dim its appeal.<br />
A man melts down gold jewelry in Los Angeles, California August 24, 2011. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson<br />
16
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
Since that date, gold priced in Swiss francs has spiked. This reversed a trend over recent months when Swiss francdenominated<br />
gold stayed relatively steady as gold in other major currencies hit a string of record highs.<br />
"While gold in euro, sterling and dollar terms was really skyrocketing, gold in Swiss franc terms wasn't doing much, and that's<br />
telling us that the Swiss franc was being seen as a proxy to gold," said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider<br />
Foreign Exchange.<br />
"Now we've seen an enormous spike in Swiss franc-denominated gold, which may indicate that the SNB has succeeded in<br />
causing the Swiss franc's proxy status to gold to become unhinged."<br />
Swiss franc-priced gold has risen nearly 20 percent since the SNB's announcement, hitting a record high for the first time<br />
since June 2010 near 1,500 francs ($1,908) an ounce. Spot gold has climbed just over 8 percent to record highs just below<br />
$1,900 an ounce in the same period.<br />
With concerns about high U.S. debt and a weak economy denting the appeal of the dollar and intervention by Japanese authorities<br />
weighing on the yen, the SNB's measures remove the franc as the remaining accessible safe-haven currency, boosting<br />
demand for gold.<br />
"Given that even the Swiss are considering adding liquidity to the market, gold as a currency that can't be printed has a certain<br />
attraction," said David Jollie, an analyst at Mitsui Precious Metals.<br />
Maurice Pomery, an analyst at consultants Strategic Alpha, said that now the SNB have "turned off the safety valve", gold<br />
could surpass $2,000 an ounce within two weeks, while silver will also gain.<br />
Analysts say gold's appeal is enhanced as the SNB's actions have caused short-term deposit and money rates in Switzerland<br />
to turn negative.<br />
"<strong>Gold</strong> usually does well in currencies that cut rates and have negative real rates," said Tobias Merath, an analyst at Credit<br />
Suisse. "If you get a negative nominal yield on government paper and a zero yield on gold, then gold looks more attractive."<br />
WEAKNESS ACROSS THE CURRENCIES<br />
Once seen as a hedge against weakness in the dollar, gold is increasingly perceived as an alternative to paper currencies in<br />
general as central banks seek to keep their currencies weak via quantitative easing or through intervention -- described by<br />
some as "currency wars".<br />
Central bank intervention in currency markets typically has a significant effect on gold prices. <strong>Gold</strong> priced in Japanese yen<br />
rallied nearly 9 percent to a then-record high near 140,000 yen ($1,836) an ounce in the week after the Bank of Japan intervened<br />
to curb strength in the currency on Aug. 4.<br />
BoJ/SNB activity, gold price: ( http://r.reuters.com/pex33s )<br />
Asset returns in 2011: ( http://r.reuters.com/suz52s )<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> in different currencies: ( http://r.reuters.com/wun62s )<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> prices have hit record highs in recent weeks in all major currencies -- U.S. dollars, yen, euros and sterling -- as well as<br />
major commodity currencies such as the South African rand, Canadian, New Zealand and Australian dollars. The devaluation<br />
of major currencies cannot be seen in currency rates - except until recently against the Swiss franc - because all currencies<br />
have been losing value, but it can be seen in their value against gold.<br />
Bank of New York Mellon currency strategist Simon Derrick argues that gold's long-term ascent that began in 2001 coincided<br />
with the Bank of Japan's quantitative easing programme that began that year and went on until 2006. "<strong>Gold</strong> is a flight from<br />
currency debasement," BNYM's Derrick said. "It's not gold going up, it's developed currencies going down."<br />
Record price to pinch <strong>India</strong>'s festive gold demand<br />
By Rajendra Jadhav<br />
MUMBAI, Aug 22 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
R<br />
ecord high prices could pinch gold demand in <strong>India</strong>, the world's biggest consumer, during the key festival buying<br />
season in September and October, but investment demand will help ensure record imports in 2011, the head of <strong>India</strong>'s<br />
leading trade body told <strong>Reuters</strong>. "If prices stay at current levels, demand will be lower during the festival season.<br />
But if prices fall to 25,000 rupees (per 10 grams), then it will rise," Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay<br />
Bullion Association, said in an interview on Monday.<br />
"Overall (<strong>India</strong>'s) imports I think will be more than 1,000 tonnes despite lower sales during festivals," he said.<br />
<strong>India</strong>'s key October gold contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange hit another record high on Monday at 28,244 rupees<br />
($618.44) per 10 grams while international prices rallied towards $1,900 an ounce. Interest in the safe haven commodity was<br />
fuelled by concerns over the global economic outlook.<br />
"In January to June we have already imported over 500 tonnes. Now people are not only buying during festivals. They buy<br />
throughout the year. Whenever they get an opportunity, they buy," Kothari said.<br />
17
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
<strong>India</strong>, whose appetite for gold dates back centuries, imported a record 958 tonnes in 2010 and a recent <strong>Reuters</strong> poll forecast<br />
imports to fall by 12 percent in 2011. The Bombay Bullion Association's forecast in the poll was 950-1,000 tonnes.<br />
<strong>India</strong>ns buy gold during festivals like Dhanteras and Deepavali, falling in October, because they consider them auspicious<br />
times for gifts and investments. Kothari said though demand has been rising for gold, demand for jewellery is falling as more<br />
and more people buy coins and bars.<br />
"Two to three years back, 85 percent of gold consumption was in jewellery form. Now that has fallen to 70 percent. Investment<br />
demand is continuously rising due to higher (jewellery) making charges and wastage (at the time of sale)," he said, adding in<br />
coming years the shift towards investment will continue.<br />
NO INCENTIVE FOR SCRAP SALES?<br />
Despite record high prices, scrap sales are not rising in <strong>India</strong> and Kothari says they are unlikely to rise in the current scenario.<br />
"I don't think scrap sales will rise because of higher prices. The equity market is not giving returns, property prices are steady ...<br />
they can sell gold, but where will they invest their money after selling?" he said. "Now prices are going up and up only. So I<br />
don't think <strong>India</strong>ns will sell old jewellery," he added.<br />
International spot gold prices retreated from early record highs near $1,900 an ounce on Monday, as a rebound in stock markets<br />
from last week's lows gathered pace, denting interest in so-called safe haven assets like bullion.<br />
"I think gold could cross the $2,000 an ounce level, may rise to $2,200 by the end of 2011," Kothari said, given a loss of confidence<br />
among investors in other asset classes.<br />
"Interest rates are very low in the U.S. and Europe. Lots of speculative money is coming into the market. Everyone is talking<br />
about gold, buying gold ... They are losing faith in other asset classes," he said. He added that prices could correct before<br />
heading over $2,000 per ounce. "It may fall to $1,750 before rising to $2,000," he said, as people paused to take profits in the<br />
metal.<br />
Banks race to raise gold price forecasts<br />
Aug 22 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
G old<br />
prices hit a record high near $1,900 an ounce on Monday, boosted by hefty losses in stock markets in recent sessions<br />
and speculation that a sluggish U.S. recovery could lead to a further round of quantitative easing.<br />
Spot prices are up by about a third this year and are on track for their biggest quarterly gain in at least 25 years. The<br />
rally has prompted a number of banks and trading houses to raise their gold price forecasts.<br />
Below are recent price views for gold. Please note that dates given are those of the reports in which the forecasts appeared,<br />
which may differ from the dates on which they were made.<br />
A woman checks a gold waist belt inside a jewellery shop on the occasion of the Akshaya Tritiya festival in the southern <strong>India</strong>n city of Hyderabad . REUTERS/Krishnendu<br />
18
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
SOCIETE GENERALE (AUG 22)<br />
* SocGen raised its average gold price forecast to $1,950 an ounce for the fourth quarter of 2011, pushing its 2011 annual average<br />
to $1,660 an ounce.<br />
* The bank also raised its 2012 forecasts to average $2,275 per ounce, and sees the metal trading around $2,500 an ounce in<br />
the fourth quarter of 2012.<br />
* "A combination of continued highly accommodative monetary policy, anemic growth, and continuing sovereign debt problems<br />
will continue to push gold to new highs," SocGen added.<br />
CITI (AUG 22)<br />
* Citi lifted its 2011 gold price forecast to $1,590 an ounce from $1,440, and its 2012 price view to $1,650 from $1,325. In 2013 it<br />
sees gold averaging $1,500 an ounce versus a previous forecast of $1,225.<br />
* "Increased global risk, (dollar) weakness, growing inflationary fears, the USA debt downgrade and continuing sovereign debt<br />
risks in Europe have increased investor appetite for gold," the bank said in a report.<br />
* "This has been supported by central banks reversing activities from being sellers for most of the past 15 years to net buyers<br />
more recently, and is supported by the Fed's stated desire to keep interest rates at super-low levels in the medium term," it<br />
added.<br />
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK (AUG 19)<br />
* National Australia Bank said that in quarterly average terms, it forecasts the gold price to be around $1,600 an ounce in December<br />
2011.<br />
* "Recent economic events should help to maintain the price of gold at an elevated level until uncertainty begins to dissipate<br />
and investor demand for gold unwinds," it said.<br />
HSBC (AUG 10)<br />
• HSBC said gold could rally above $1,850 an ounce this year and average more than $1,700 an ounce for the remainder<br />
of 2011.<br />
A customer tries on a gold necklace at a gold shop in Hanoi August 23, 2011. REUTERS/Kham<br />
19
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
* "<strong>Gold</strong> is a widely traded, universally accepted hard asset and a proven safe haven instrument," it said. "Investors have traditionally<br />
turned to it when faith in government policies - as reflected in a government's credit rating, the value of its currency<br />
and demand for its bonds, and even in levels of social unrest - deteriorates."<br />
* The bank reiterated its decision on Aug. 8 to lift its 2011 gold price forecast to $1,590 an ounce from $1,525, raise its price<br />
view for 2012 to $1,625 from $1,500, and increase its 2013 gold forecast to $1,550 from $1,450.<br />
BANK OF AMERICA-MERRILL LYNCH (AUG 9)<br />
* Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said in a research note it was revising its 12-month gold target to $2,000 an ounce.<br />
* "Physical gold is the ultimate collateral because it has no credit risk, so emerging market central banks have been diversifying<br />
their foreign exchange reserves into gold and other non-dollar, non-euro assets in recent quarters," it said.<br />
* "Looking ahead, the deterioration in credit quality in Europe and the U.S. coupled with an increased probability of QE3<br />
means these pressures will continue," it added.<br />
JPMORGAN (AUG 8)<br />
* JPMorgan said rising expectations that the financial crisis would flare up once more following Standard & Poor's downgrade<br />
of the United States' credit rating last week had caused it to lift its price view on gold this year.<br />
* "Before the downgrade, our view was that cash gold could average $1,800 per ounce by year end," the bank said in a note.<br />
"This view will likely now prove to be too conservative: spot gold could drive to $2,500 per ounce or higher, albeit on very high<br />
volatility."<br />
GOLDMAN SACHS (AUG 7)<br />
* <strong>Gold</strong>man Sachs said it was raising its gold price forecasts to $1,645 an ounce, $1,730 an ounce, and $1,860 an ounce on a<br />
three, six, and 12-month horizon respectively. "With our U.S. economics team now lowering their outlook for U.S. economic<br />
growth to 1.7 percent in 2011 and 2.1 percent in 2012, we now expect real interest rates will remain lower for longer, and we are<br />
now raising our gold price forecasts," it said.<br />
* "The recent escalation of sovereign debt concerns suggests that the near-term risk to our new forecast is skewed to the upside,<br />
and we continue to recommend long trading positions in gold," it added.<br />
UBS (AUG 3)<br />
* UBS said it was lifting its one-month gold forecast to $1,725 from $1,575 previously, and its three-month price view to $1,850<br />
from $1,600. "With U.S. growth strait-jacketed and as expectations for some form of Fed easing grow, the macro climate remains<br />
gold-supportive," it said in a note on Aug. 3. "There are still valid concerns about global growth, neither European nor<br />
U.S. debt issues have been comprehensively dealt with and European peripheral bond spreads reached record levels yesterday."<br />
* "From the potential for quantitative easing in the UK, to the reality that U.S. rate hikes are more than 12 months away, to<br />
continuing central bank diversification towards gold, there's no shortage of positives in the months ahead."<br />
Vietnam to allow gold imports to cool local prices<br />
By Tran Thuy<br />
HANOI, Aug 23 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
V ietnam's<br />
central bank has authorised at least one domestic firm to import more gold to help cool soaring prices and<br />
state-run newspapers said it may open the market to unlimited imports to narrow the gap between local and world<br />
quotes.<br />
Central bank officials, including Governor Nguyen Van Binh, could not be reached for an immediate comment, but<br />
sources with knowledge of a meeting between Binh and senior editors on Tuesday morning to discuss gold-related policies<br />
said the issue of allowing unlimited imports did not come up.<br />
However, the State Bank of Vietnam has agreed to allow Saigon Jewelry Co (SJC), one of the country's biggest gold trading<br />
companies, to import gold based on its demand, said Nguyen Cong Tuong, deputy director of sales at SJC.<br />
The move would help narrow the difference between domestic and international prices, which on Tuesday was around $45 an<br />
ounce. Analysts say the gap fuels gold smuggling and speculation.<br />
"State Bank's permission to import has effectively cut the domestic price from up to $100 higher than international price per<br />
tael to a few hundred thousand dong," SJC's Tuong said.<br />
Early this month, the State Bank of Vietnam approved 5 tonnes of gold imports and said it could double the quantity soon as<br />
surging prices sparked a frenzy at gold dealers and jewellers.<br />
The State Bank said in a statement on Tuesday three tonnes of gold had been imported by far.<br />
The measures come as gold prices in Vietnam rose to fresh record highs in recent days as world prices surged to all-time<br />
highs above $1,910 on Tuesday, due to gold's safe-haven allure amid nagging fears about the world economy.<br />
20
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
Vietnam's move to allow more gold imports adds to the picture of rising Asian demand after recent purchases by central<br />
banks in Thailand and South Korea.<br />
SJC offered to sell gold at a record of 48.87 million dong ($2,347) per tael in Hanoi on Tuesday, SJC data showed. The latest<br />
price indicates a rise of more than 9 percent from a week ago.<br />
One tael is equivalent to 37.5 grams or 1.21 troy ounce.<br />
In a detailed measure to help cool gold markets published on Tuesday, the State Bank of Vietnam said it would monitor production<br />
and trading of gold bullion more strictly by issuing permits to a number of its selected trading firms.<br />
This would allow the central bank "to intervene effectively in the gold market to fight against gold price speculation", the central<br />
bank said in a statement on its website. ($1=20,805 dong)<br />
<strong>India</strong> gold imports likely to fall on limited spends-Scotia<br />
By Siddesh Mayenkar<br />
KOVALAM, <strong>India</strong> Aug 20 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
G old<br />
buyers in <strong>India</strong>, the world's largest consumer of the yellow metal, are investing in it on expectations prices may<br />
rise, but imports are likely to fall as limited budgets buy less gold, the head of <strong>India</strong>'s biggest importing bank told<br />
<strong>Reuters</strong> on Saturday.<br />
"They are buying, we talk to jewellers, and they are saying demand is very high. People are planning their wedding<br />
purchases in advance because they feel that prices may go to 30,000 (rupees) they are using that to buy," said Sunil Kashyap,<br />
head of Asia, Scotia Mocatta.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> prices have gained more than 25 percent so far in the year to peak at 27,989 rupees per 10 grams on Saturday, continuing<br />
its rising trend for eight years in a row.<br />
<strong>India</strong>'s wedding and festival demand will gain pace and peak in October before tapering off in December.<br />
"People are spending the same, but the amount of gold that they are getting is less," said Kashyap, adding there could a 20<br />
percent decline in imports this year.<br />
<strong>India</strong> imported 958 tonnes of the yellow metal in 2010.<br />
Scotia is market leader, cornering about 35 percent of <strong>India</strong>'s imports and operates in collaboration with wholesalers across<br />
the country.<br />
"The perception right now is gold prices are going higher and because of that people are buying. If price keeps on going and<br />
filling that expectation you are going to see continuous demand," said Kashyap in the southern state of Kerala.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> bars are pictured at the Austrian <strong>Gold</strong> and Silver Separating Plant 'Oegussa' in Vienna August 26, 2011. REUTERS/Lisi Niesner<br />
21
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
However, the risk to continued demand, Scotia said, was "If there is a correction, people may just step aside."<br />
Jewellery demand is likely to witness a revival after a slow pace of growth in the quarter to June. Investment demand grew by a<br />
whopping 78 percent to 108.5 tonnes, while jewellery demand slowed by 17 percent to 139.5 tonnes in the second quarter.<br />
"People are buying jewellery as investment, there was a lot of new buyers who were not buying jewellery but buying gold bars<br />
and coins, but just in the south people are buying jewellery, so this year we may see some revival in jewellery demand," he said.<br />
<strong>India</strong>'s gold imports: ( http://link.reuters.com/xaf72s )<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> seen rising to $1,940 by year end ( http://link.reuters.com/rab72s )<br />
CORRECTION KILLS INTEREST IN SILVER<br />
Kashyap said silver imports had shrunk after spectacular sales in the first-half to June, adding prices were likely to fall by 18.5<br />
percent from current levels to $35 an ounce, driven by a slowdown in industrial demand.<br />
"There is a definite resistance to silver. Once it crossed 50,000 rupees and then went to 60,000 rupees, a lot of people got<br />
stuck with positions, and the correction from 60,000 rupees killed many people's interest, so there is now less interest as it is<br />
considered as a two-way metal," said Kashyap. "<strong>Gold</strong> has just moved in one direction."<br />
Silver prices have corrected 32 percent after peaking to 73,600 rupees in late April.<br />
"We had a very strong spurt (in imports) in the first half itself. I would suspect 3,500-4,000 tonnes (of imports in 2011) on low<br />
base effect," said Kashyap. <strong>India</strong> imported about 2,800 tonnes of the white metal last year.<br />
"The fact silver demand is inelastic to price, but here demand itself will not be coming down due to slowdown," he said.<br />
Kashyap feels there is lack of a clear laid out policy in <strong>India</strong> to boost avenues available to retail gold investors. Conversely,<br />
China has allowed a plethora of retail investment products to boost investments such as in the form of gold deposits, certificates<br />
and gold accumulation plans.<br />
"The banks here in <strong>India</strong> have already made representations to the regulator but they have not received any response," he said.<br />
POLL-<strong>India</strong> gold trade sees 2011 imports easing from record<br />
By Siddesh Mayenkar<br />
KOVALAM, <strong>India</strong> Aug 20(<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
G old<br />
imports from <strong>India</strong>, the world's largest consumer of bullion, are likely to ease to 825 tonnes in 2011, down 12 percent<br />
from last year's record of 958 tonnes, a <strong>Reuters</strong> poll of 12 importing banks, and traders showed.<br />
At a conference in Kovalam in southern state of Kerala, gold market participants gathered to assess the impact of<br />
record high prices on gold imports.<br />
The lowest imports was estimated at 500 tonnes by a private importing bank in Mumbai and the highest was estimated at<br />
1,000 tonnes by the Bombay Bullion Association and Kolkalta-based wholesaler JJ <strong>Gold</strong> House.<br />
Following are forecasts of industry members on <strong>India</strong>'s gold imports in 2011 in metric tonnes:<br />
Company Business Forecast<br />
Corporation Bank, Mumbai Importer 900<br />
IndusInd Bank, Mumbai Importer 700<br />
Private Bank, Mumbai Importer 500<br />
Parker Agrochem, Ahmedabad Wholesaler 600<br />
Quant Commodities, Mumbai Wholesaler 700-800<br />
MNC Bullion, Chennai Wholesaler 900<br />
Khemka International, New De lhi Wholesaler 700-750<br />
JJ <strong>Gold</strong> House, Kolkata Wholesaler 1,000<br />
Bharghav Vaidya, Mumbai Trader 950<br />
Surana Corporation, Chennai Wholesaler 950<br />
Bombay Bullion Association Trade body 950-1000<br />
State Trading Corp, New Delh i Importer 700<br />
MEDIAN 825<br />
22
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
<strong>India</strong> plans to encourage gold refining-govt official<br />
By Siddesh Mayenkar<br />
KOVALAM, <strong>India</strong> Aug 20 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
I ndia<br />
plans to encourage refining of locally made coins and bars for traders and investors of precious metals, a government<br />
official said, a move that could reduce shipments from overseas sellers.<br />
Domestic refining capacity is very minimal in <strong>India</strong> and the country mostly depends on supply of scrap and gold ores and<br />
dores from overseas mines. Overseas manufacturers such as South Africa's Rand Refinery, Switzerland's PAMP, and Australia's<br />
Perth Mint export gold bars and coins to <strong>India</strong>.<br />
"We want to encourage refining in <strong>India</strong>... government is with the industry to make it more transparent, efficient and professional,"<br />
S.K. Goel, special secretary and member of Central Board of Excise and Customs of department of revenue, said late<br />
on Friday. "We are open to any suggestion from industry players, refiners and importers. Government will try to examine and<br />
try to implement," Goel added.<br />
<strong>India</strong>'s gold imports: ( http://link.reuters.com/xaf72s )<br />
The government in its 2010/11 budget has reduced the custom duty on gold ore and concentrate to a flat duty of 140 rupees<br />
($3) per 10 grams from 2 percent on value earlier.<br />
"Let us see how it works... We will have to see its results, how much refining is impacted... Policy is always dynamic and not<br />
static," said Goel, when asked if government is considering a cut in duty on gold ores, a raw material used for making of bars<br />
and coins.<br />
<strong>India</strong> imports majority of its 800-900 tonnes of gold requirement from refiners in Switzerland, Australia and South Africa.<br />
"Unless the procedures are set in place for speedy clearance of dore gold imported by refineries at customs stations and at the<br />
factory, the cost will be counterproductive for such refinery," said Daman Prakash Rathod, director with MNC Bullion, a wholesaler<br />
in southern city of Chennai.<br />
The customs department undertakes tests to verify that the gold content is not more than 80 percent purity, before it is delivered<br />
to a refiner. Rathod said it takes three weeks on average to clear the consignment from customs.<br />
The excise duty on refined gold made from imported ore or concentrate was reduced to a specific duty of 280 rupees per 10<br />
grams from earlier 8 percent on value in 2010/11. <strong>India</strong>'s government has increased the import duty on gold to 300 rupees<br />
per 10 grams in its 2010/11 budget from 200 rupees earlier.<br />
A worker walks in front of a truck at Agnico-Eagle's Meadowbank gold mine near Baker Lake, Nunavut August 24, 2011. REUTERS/Chris Wattie<br />
23
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
<strong>India</strong> STC sees gold imports up 25% in yr to March 2012<br />
KOVALAM, <strong>India</strong>, Aug 19 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
I ndia's<br />
government-run gold importer State Trading Corporation (STC) expects a 25 percent jump in its imports to 125<br />
tonnes in the year to March 2012 due to surging investment demand, its top official said on Friday.<br />
"There might be a temporary dip in demand due to high prices, but again people may start buying because of investment,"<br />
N.K. Mathur, chairman and managing director with STC, told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in the southern<br />
state of Kerala. Local gold prices have gained more than 25 percent so far this year to peak at 27,962 rupees per 10 grams on<br />
Friday evening.<br />
Imports in <strong>India</strong>, the world's largest consumer of the metal, rose 34.9 percent in the first half of the year to 553 tonnes after a<br />
surge of 72 percent in 2010 to 959 tonnes and a 38 percent rise in investment demand. STC hopes to restart its imported coins<br />
sales division to cash in on rising investment demand, its chairman said.<br />
Mathur, asked if it would buy coins manufactured by MMTC PAMP, which expects to start its refinery in October, said this was<br />
possible. "We are not averse to buy from MMTC, it is business at the end of the day. If they want to market and we want to do<br />
it, it can work," said<br />
Mathur said it was not keen on selling silver coins as these are bulky, adding that silver imports formed "a small portion of its<br />
business." Mathur expects gold prices to trend upwards in the short-term.<br />
"In the short time it will rise, it will cross the $2,000 (an ounce) mark," said Mathur, adding there was an absence of alternatives<br />
for investment. "The dollar is uncertain and even equity markets are uncertain, the only safe place is gold," he said.<br />
Spot gold on international markets was set for its biggest one-week rise since late 2008 on Friday after a raft of soft economic<br />
data battered stock markets, though prices eased from record highs as equity markets and the euro edged off lows in afternoon<br />
trade. Spot gold was up 1.7 percent at $1,853.89 an ounce. It is on track for its biggest one-month rise in nearly 12 years<br />
in August and is up 31 percent so far this year.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> seen peaking at $1,900/oz in next 6 months -GFMS<br />
By Siddesh Mayenkar<br />
MUMBAI, Aug 18 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
G<br />
old could hit $1,900 an ounce in the next six months, driven by buyers seeking an investment safe from global economic<br />
problems, but a further rise to $2,000 looks unlikely, metals consultancy GFMS said on Thursday.<br />
"<strong>Gold</strong> will be muddling through to peak at $1,900 (an ounce)as U.S. data points have been ambiguous, the action on<br />
the fiscal and monetary front is also ambiguous," said Paul Walker, global head of precious metals at GFMS, which<br />
has been acquired by Thomson <strong>Reuters</strong>.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> extended record highs above $1,825 an ounce on Thursday after poorly received U.S. jobs data hurt assets seen as<br />
higher risk, such as stocks, while boosting interest in nominal safe havens such as gold.<br />
So far in August, the price has risen by more than 12 percent, putting it on track for its biggest monthly gain since November<br />
2009. "In the time frame, we really need exceptionally dramatic news to push gold above $2,000 and this is not our base<br />
case," said Walker. "This is highly unlikely."<br />
Although gold remains off its inflation-adjusted peak above $2,000 struck in 1980, it is one of the top performing assets this<br />
year, up by over 28 percent versus a 15-percent loss in U.S. blue-chip stocks or a 7.7-percent decline in the price of copper .<br />
He said there was a high probability of <strong>India</strong>'s gold imports crossing 1,000 tonnes this year -- up four percent on 2010 -- as<br />
expectations were for prices to gain further.<br />
The World <strong>Gold</strong> Council in a report on Thursday said <strong>India</strong>n gold jewellery buying was up 17 percent in the second quarter and<br />
that signs of strength in the market remained.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> imports by MMTC, <strong>India</strong>'s second biggest importer of the metal, have tumbled to 5 tonnes so far in August as buyers preferred<br />
a 'wait-and-watch' approach. Walker said consumers would wait for price stability before jumping in.<br />
"People are getting accustomed to this kind of a benchmark (price) even though it is at incredibly elevated levels. Everybody<br />
who is involved in the value chain in the <strong>India</strong>n gold market thinks prices will go up," said Walker, ahead of a conference in the<br />
southern state of Kerala. Silver prices could extend gains to $50 an ounce in the next months from around $40.60 an ounce<br />
now, he added.<br />
"It will follow gold up ... It will move towards $50, but it is going to be a hell of a lot more volatile," said Walker.<br />
Silver prices have more than trebled since 2008 to peak at $49.51 an ounce this year. "Silver will benefit from the same factors<br />
as that of gold from rising investment drivers. Until the global macro situation gets clearer, prices will go higher," he said.<br />
24
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
<strong>India</strong> gold seen powering to another high in Sept quarter<br />
By Siddesh Mayenkar<br />
MUMBAI, July 27 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
I<br />
ndia gold, which hit a record on Monday, are likely to extend gains for a second straight quarter to its peak as investors<br />
seek refuge from U.S. debt crisis and surging inflation, though physical demand cringing as a result could keep a lid on<br />
gains, a <strong>Reuters</strong> poll revealed.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> had recorded its earlier all-time high on April 30.<br />
"Major factors in the coming quarters could see gold rising as high as $1,650 (an ounce) by 2011 end. Euro zone debt fears and<br />
U.S. economy troubles are positive for gold," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director with Mumbai-based Commtrendz Research.<br />
The most-traded August gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) struck a record high of 23,358 rupees per 10 grams<br />
on July 25, before easing to 23,179 rupees on Wednesday. <strong>Gold</strong> may test 23,500 rupees by the end of September quarter and<br />
could extend gains to 23,950 rupees in December quarter and 24,400 by the end of March quarter in 2012, the poll estimated.<br />
"Decrease in purchasing power due to rising inflation may force more traders to convert assets into bullion," said Sugandha<br />
Sachdeva, in-charge of metals and energy research with Religare Commodities.<br />
The U.S. House of Representatives decided to postpone a vote on a plan to raise the debt ceiling until Thursday at the earliest,<br />
narrowing the chances for a deal to avert a debt default, which has supported the yellow metal so far.<br />
"Long-term view on precious metals continues to remain bullish taking into consideration the ongoing European debt crisis,"<br />
said Reena Walia Nair, senior research analyst with Angel Broking.<br />
"High oil prices and a slowdown in economic growth on the back of monetary tightening will also support demand for gold."<br />
<strong>India</strong>'s gold imports ( http://link.reuters.com/xaf72s )<br />
PHYSICAL BUYERS CAUTIOUS<br />
Physical buyers, however, are likely to turn cautious of getting stuck with high-priced inventory ahead of the festival season<br />
next month, limiting gold gains.<br />
<strong>India</strong>, world's No. 1 gold importer, bought 286 tonnes of gold overseas in the first quarter, up nearly 10 percent from a year<br />
ago, World <strong>Gold</strong> Council data show. The country imported 959 tonnes of gold in 2010, or an annual increase of 72 percent.<br />
"We expect buyers to return from first week of August as compulsive buyers for marriage would reappear, but how high prices<br />
would make them react is a million dollar question," said Daman Prakash Rathod, former convener of Tamil Nadu Bullion Forum.<br />
"As of now while western world is busy buying due to financial woes at their door, <strong>India</strong>ns have taken an extended holiday."<br />
Prices, investment products in focus at <strong>India</strong> gold meet<br />
By Siddesh Mayenkar<br />
MUMBAI, Aug 18 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
A s<br />
gold rallies to consecutive record highs, price, imports and investment demand for bullion will top the agenda at a<br />
conference in <strong>India</strong>, the metal's biggest consumer, this week.<br />
Attendees will not have far to look for evidence of <strong>India</strong>'s long-standing worship of gold, as the conference takes<br />
place in Kovalam, just an hour away from a $22 billion treasure hoard found last month under a temple in Kerala's<br />
state capital.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> prices in <strong>India</strong> , which relies on imports for almost all its supplies, have climbed about 25 percent so far this year to peak<br />
at 26,575 rupees ($583) per 10 grams on Thursday, around $1,810 an ounce.<br />
Spot gold is at $1,790 an ounce, near record highs above $1,813, spurred higher by investors looking for a safe haven as concerns<br />
over the health of economies in Europe and the United States hit currencies, stocks and bonds.<br />
The 8th <strong>India</strong> International <strong>Gold</strong> Conference, organised by the Bombay Bullion Association, will look at global gold scrap supplies,<br />
bullion-based investment products, an outlook on the bullion market and industrial uses of silver, as well as detailed<br />
discussion of the domestic gold market.<br />
"People will be looking at the kind of investment that could come in at record prices and new avenues that people might have<br />
to cover their risk in other markets," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director at Commtrendz Research, a commodity broker<br />
based in Mumbai.<br />
Conference attendees and participants, spanning state-run MMTC to Bank of Nova Scotia, will weigh the impact of record<br />
prices on imports to <strong>India</strong>. Imports in <strong>India</strong> rose 34.9 percent in the first half of the year to 553 tonnes after a surge of 72 percent<br />
in 2010 to 959 tonnes and a whopping 38 percent rise in investment demand, as high prices curbed buying this year.<br />
25
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST 2011<br />
Local prices are up more than 41 percent on a year ago. "People are thinking of almost double prices compared to last year,"<br />
said Daman Prakash Rathod, director with Chennai-based gold wholesaler MNC Bullion.<br />
But, he added, "in the coming months, strong seasonal impact will not allow any let up on the import front."<br />
<strong>India</strong>'s obsession with gold is nowhere more evident than in its wedding season, which runs from September to December,<br />
when jewellery and gilded gifts abound as brides traditionally carry their wealth while sons inherit land and fixed assets.<br />
Rural consumers -- many of whom invest in gold as they live far from the facilities of a bank -- will be looking to monsoon<br />
rains expected to be only slightly below normal to give a good crop and so boost incomes and saving capacity.<br />
INVESTMENT SPUR?<br />
Traders say rising awareness among <strong>India</strong>'s 1.2 billion population of the investment avenues in gold due to the large presence<br />
of commodity, stock brokers and mutual fund houses in smaller towns has supported buying to save.<br />
"Globalisation of media and better reach to every nook and corner of <strong>India</strong> through mobile (phones), cable TV have made a<br />
dramatic difference to customer preference," said MNC's Rathod.<br />
Investment in gold bars and coins rose eight percent in the quarter to March to 85.6 tonnes, with investment in exchange<br />
traded funds jumping 57 percent to 15.077 tonnes in February on a year ago -- small amounts but a significant shift. Still, with<br />
foreign players not allowed in commodities markets in <strong>India</strong>, there are limits to liquidity, crimping participation from hedge<br />
players and others who want nimble trading.<br />
The conference could see price forecasts from Scotia Mocatta, a unit of Canada-based Bank of Nova Scotia, State Bank of <strong>India</strong>,<br />
Religare Commodities, and GFMS, which was recently acquired by Thomson <strong>Reuters</strong>.<br />
Industry participants will also be hoping the Reserve Bank of <strong>India</strong> (RBI), the country's central bank , will give approval for forward<br />
contracts in silver and loans for traders, along with an exchange traded fund for the metal.<br />
"This facility should be there for flexibility in business operations. We are depriving (silver traders) of benefits and cashing in<br />
on lower prices. If we have these facilities for gold traders, then why not for silver?" said Mayank Khemka, managing director<br />
with Khemka Group of Companies, one of the speakers at the conference.<br />
A forward contract is a non-standardized agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a specified future time at a<br />
price agreed today. Khemka said they intend to take up the issue with the RBI in September.<br />
Participants will be also watching how <strong>India</strong>'s regional rival and neighbour China, which the World <strong>Gold</strong> Council says will overtake<br />
<strong>India</strong> this year in terms of gold consumption in the short-term, is coping with regulatory changes that allow more companies<br />
to deal in precious metal and what lessons traders back home can draw from them.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> a 'bubble that could deflate,' says analyst<br />
KOVALAM, <strong>India</strong>, Aug 20 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
R ecord<br />
gold prices may be heading for a correction of about 8 percent next month, but the safe-haven metal may also<br />
rally to $2,400 an ounce next year as investors seek refuge amid global economic turmoil, a global head at INTL<br />
FCStone on Saturday.<br />
"Trees don't grow till heaven. I think buyers need to be beware we are in a 'caveat emptor' market," said Jeffrey Rhodes,<br />
global head of precious metals at the brokerage and an industry expert, told reporters at a conference on gold in the<br />
southern <strong>India</strong>n state of Kerala.<br />
International gold struck a record of $1,877 an ounce on Friday, still on track for its biggest one-month rise in nearly 12 years in<br />
August and its biggest one-week gain since early 2009.<br />
Rhodes said gold may retrace to $1,725 by next month, and then race ahead. "My problem is that people are buying gold and<br />
they don't understand why they are buying gold and that's a big problem and that is a classic symptom of a bubble," said Rhodes.<br />
Rhodes said there is an absence of "real motivation" for investors to cash in their gold holdings to cover losses from the equity<br />
markets.<br />
On Friday, global equity markets slid anew and gold set a second-straight record high as fears of a possible U.S. slide into<br />
recession and concerns related to Europe's debt crisis kept investors on edge.<br />
26
COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS WILL RISK BATTERED SHIVER AVERSION ON JAPAN AFTER BY BANISH DEBT SHARPEST U.S. CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY CORRECTION FEARS AUGUST AUGUST 2011<br />
2011<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> exchange-traded funds mushroom in <strong>India</strong><br />
MUMBAI, Aug 18 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
G old<br />
exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may be new for <strong>India</strong>, but are gaining in popularity as investors become aware of<br />
the benefits of investing in gold paper as opposed to holding it as jewellery.<br />
ETFs are instruments that trade like shares and are backed by physical holdings of the commodity.<br />
<strong>India</strong> is the world's top consumer of gold, accounting for 20 percent of global demand. In a country where many of<br />
the 1.2 billion population live far from a bank, <strong>India</strong>ns traditionally invest in gold jewellery.<br />
Here are some key facts and figures on <strong>India</strong>'s gold ETFs:<br />
- <strong>India</strong> has eight gold ETFs currently listed with a total collection of more than 15 tonnes, up 57 percent on a year ago.<br />
- <strong>India</strong>'s gold ETF collection is small compared to its approximately 700 tonnes of annual gold consumption. But industry<br />
players suggest it could rise by at least 50 percent year-on-year.<br />
- Mumbai-based Benchmark Mutual Fund, owned by <strong>Gold</strong>man Sachs Asset Management, was the first to start a gold ETF in<br />
2007 and has the largest collection of more than eight tonnes.<br />
- The ETFs are listed on <strong>India</strong>'s National Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange and most of them have a minimum<br />
individual share size of one gram.<br />
- HDFC Mutual Fund is the latest to offer a gold ETF, which started trading last week. ICICI Prudential, which has already collected<br />
funds, will list its ETF soon.<br />
- <strong>Gold</strong> funds have been witnessing explosive growth due to the convenience of buying paper gold, which can be acquired<br />
online, and the guarantee of quality, that is absent in jewellery, officials managing the ETFs say.<br />
Key facts about <strong>India</strong>'s gold industry<br />
MUMBAI, Aug 18 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
I ndia's<br />
centuries-old gold industry is the world's biggest market for the metal, with imports meeting almost all the country's<br />
800-900 tonnes per year requirements for jewellery and investment.<br />
The market was only freed up in 1997, when the government allowed banks and other state-run trading firms to import the<br />
sensitive commodity directly.<br />
Here are facts on the industry and changes taking place:<br />
- <strong>India</strong>'s gold imports rose 34.9 percent to 553 tonnes in the first half of 2011, according to the World <strong>Gold</strong> Council (WGC). Imports<br />
jumped 72 percent in 2010 to 959 tonnes.<br />
- Imports are high but with a population of 1.2 billion, per capita consumption is relatively low. Per capita gold consumption is<br />
only 0.7 grams, half that of the United States and one-third of the Middle East, according to World <strong>Gold</strong> Council estimates.<br />
- <strong>India</strong>'s gold market is estimated to have more than 300,000 jewellers, mostly small, family-run businesses, a WGC study<br />
showed. Many jewellers are one-room shops with long-standing ties with customers, and items are often sold by weight.<br />
- Only 31 state-run and private banks along with government trading agencies have licences to import gold because of its implications<br />
for foreign exchange flows.<br />
- <strong>India</strong>'s 2010/11 budget raised the import duty on gold and platinum to 300 rupees ($6.65) per 10 grams from 200 rupees<br />
previously, with the duty on silver raised to 1,500 rupees per kg from 1,000 rupees earlier.<br />
- Investment purchases of gold have been rising faster than jewellery purchases. The WGC's latest data shows the investment<br />
to jewellery ratio was about 17:83 in the first half of 2011.<br />
- <strong>Gold</strong> buying in the form of exchange-traded funds is rising. Launched in 2007, the total collection among seven fund houses<br />
is over 15 tonnes, nearly double the level a year ago.<br />
- Large jewellery companies, such as Titan Industries , Reliance Jewels, Rajesh Exports and the state-run MMTC Ltd , are targeting<br />
the retail market with plans for hundreds of branded shops. They are hoping to attract sales from customers looking for<br />
a well-known name as a guarantee of quality.<br />
- In 2009, <strong>India</strong>'s gold market had its weakest year since trade was freed up in 1997. Record high prices and a failed monsoon<br />
meant imports fell 33 percent from the previous year to 480 tonnes, against an annual range between 600 and 800 tonnes in<br />
the previous five years.<br />
27
SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL SHIVER BATTERED AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN AFTER BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY U.S. $1,622/OZ CREDIT DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS DOWNGRADE SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
Auspicious days for gold purchases in <strong>India</strong> in 2011<br />
MUMBAI, Aug 18 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
T<br />
he following are some of the days considered auspicious, according to the Hindu calendar, for gold purchases in <strong>India</strong>:<br />
The biggest gold buying festivals are Akshaya Tritiya, which falls in the second quarter of the year, and Dhanteras.<br />
An inauspicious phase -- Shradh, a period for paying homage to ancestors -- is from Sept. 13 to Sept. 27.<br />
The Hindu calendar has regional variations, but the above dates are broadly followed across the country in the gold<br />
trade for planning inventories.<br />
Date Festival name Reason<br />
Sept.22 Gurupushyamrit Launching new ventures<br />
Oct. 6 Dussera Harvest-related<br />
Oct. 20 Gurupushyamrit Launching new ventures<br />
Oct. 24 Dhanteras Celebrating wealth<br />
Oct. 26 Deepavali Victory of good over evil<br />
Oct. 27 Balipratipada Final day of Deepavali<br />
Nov. 17 Gurupushyamrit Launching new ventures<br />
Silver trading in China and <strong>India</strong><br />
July 14 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
R obust<br />
demand from China and <strong>India</strong> helped ignite a record-setting rally in spot silver this year. Here are facts on duties<br />
and quotas on silver trade in the two countries, as well as silver's use in various industries.<br />
TRADE AND DUTIES IN CHINA AND INDIA<br />
China has been a net importer of silver, including silver plated with gold or platinum, unwrought or in semimanufactured<br />
or in powder form, since 2007.<br />
In the first five months of 2011, China imported 1,659 tonnes of silver, down 24 percent on the year. Silver exports dropped 21<br />
percent to 505 tonnes, official customs data showed.<br />
China does not impose an import duty on silver, except a 10.5 percent duty on base metals clad with silver. But a 17 percent<br />
value-added tax is levied on silver imports, in comparison to an exemption of VAT on gold imports.<br />
A goldsmith works on a gold bangle at a workshop in Kolkata August 1, 2011. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri<br />
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SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES ————————-- GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL BATTERED AUGUST AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN 2011 BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY $1,622/OZ DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
It does not impose an export duty on silver, but limits the amount of silver being exported. For 2011, Beijing handed out 5,670<br />
tonnes of quotas, up 11 percent from last year's.<br />
<strong>India</strong> charges 1,500 rupee per kilogram on its silver imports. There is no duty on silver exports.<br />
<strong>India</strong>n imports in the past five years (in tonnes):<br />
Year Imports<br />
2010 3,029<br />
2009 1,285<br />
2008 5,048<br />
2007 2,488<br />
2006 532<br />
(Source:GFMS)<br />
USE:<br />
Silver is used both as a precious and industrial metal.<br />
Its electrical and thermal conductivity mean it is widely used in electronic applications, particularly in conductors, switches, contacts<br />
and fuses. Silver use in the photovoltaic industry has grown rapidly, while demand for consumer electronics such as televisions<br />
and monitors using Plasma Display Panels and CD-ROMs has added to demand.<br />
Silver is also used in photography, although demand in this sector has been declining due to the rise of digital photography.<br />
Jewellery and silverware are traditionally key consumers of the metal.<br />
Historically, silver was more widely used in coins than gold.<br />
Following are tables of breakdown of silver fabrication consumption in different sectors in 2010, as well as top ten consumers,<br />
based on numbers from GFMS and the Silver Institute.<br />
(mln oz) Top ten countries in silver fabrication (million ounces):<br />
Fabrication 878.8 United States 189.6<br />
Industrial applications 487.4 China 127.2<br />
Photography 72.7 <strong>India</strong> 94.1<br />
Jewelry 167.0 Germany 39.6<br />
Silverware 50.3<br />
Coins & Metals 101.3<br />
Italy 35.2<br />
Italy 35.2<br />
29
SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES ————————-- GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL BATTERED AUGUST AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN 2011 BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY $1,622/OZ DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
As gold prices surge, cash-for-gold frenzy fades<br />
By Frank Tang and Paula Rogo<br />
NEW YORK, Aug 12 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
H anding<br />
out flyers at the corner of 47th Street and Fifth Avenue in New York City's Diamond District, Mariabi Peenya is<br />
having trouble finding passersby eager to sell their gold jewelry for cash.<br />
In Mexico City, Paulino Luna says fewer customers are coming to his small storefront in a colonial-era building, where<br />
he's been buying bullion for 25 years. And in Chennai, <strong>India</strong>, Daman Prakash Rathod finds the once-heaving crowd of<br />
local gold scrap sellers have all but disappeared.<br />
Across the globe, the latest surge in gold prices -- up as much as 20 percent since June as investors seek refuge from stock<br />
market turmoil and sovereign debt crises -- is failing to lure as many people into selling their gilt mementos, heirlooms and<br />
dusty family jewels as during the 2008 financial crisis.<br />
The success of massive cash-for-gold industry over the past three years, urging people to sell their gold, means there are fewer<br />
and fewer people with any "old gold" left.<br />
Anyone who cashed out when gold prices spiked in 2008 missed a three-year bullion boom in which prices doubled. Now with<br />
the U.S. Federal Reserve having pledged two years of near-zero interest rates, the rally in gold prices shows no sign of slowing.<br />
But it seems those people who still have gold may be holding out for even higher prices.<br />
"It's nothing like it was in 2008," says Peenya as he flagged passing New Yorkers, promising his price was best. "Either people<br />
are waiting till the price hits $2,000, or they are running out."<br />
The implications of a dwindling supply of "scrap" gold, that which isn't mined, may hit the global bullion market even harder<br />
than it hits local pawn shops. Worldwide, recycled gold usually meets 40 percent of demand. But that share is now declining<br />
just as demand for physical bullion surges anew from investors and central banks. That may be yet another reason to expect<br />
gold prices to rise even further.<br />
"The fact that scrap is not reacting as strongly as one might have expected to the stimulus of higher prices suggests those<br />
higher prices are more sustainable and price growth is easier," says Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of respected metals<br />
analytics firm GFMS Ltd, a unit of Thomson <strong>Reuters</strong>.<br />
An employee arranges gold jewellery at the counter of a gold shop in Hefei, Anhui province August 23, 2011. REUTERS/Stringer<br />
30
SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES ————————-- GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL BATTERED AUGUST AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN 2011 BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY $1,622/OZ DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> prices breached $1,800 an ounce for the first time this week, having almost tripled from its 2008 lows of $680.<br />
"The easier-to-let-go stuff has been let go, so it gets progressively more difficult given the move in the price to stimulate the<br />
same growth in scrap," Klapwijk said.<br />
In 2009, scrap supply surged by 30 percent to a record as consumers rushed to sell anything they had, both to turn a fast buck<br />
on a booming market and to cushion the blow of recession.<br />
In the years since then, large amounts of recycled gold flooded the physical market. But growth has slowed sharply as people<br />
either run out of things to sell, or wait for higher prices. Klapwijk expects recycled gold to grow by only about 5 percent this<br />
year.<br />
Scrap supply, breakdown: ( http://r.reuters.com/xeq23s )<br />
Americans spend less: ( http://r.reuters.com/nef92s )<br />
CASH-FOR-GOLD PART OF U.S. CULTURE<br />
The trend is perhaps most notable in the United States, which contributes about 10 percent of global scrap supply. Last year<br />
scrap supply was 143 tonnes -- equivalent to more than 10 million wedding bands. Some of that recycled gold also comes from<br />
industrial sources such as computer motherboards.<br />
Unlike some nations such as Turkey and <strong>India</strong>, where recycling jewelry has been commonplace for decades, most Americans<br />
had been unaccustomed to the idea of selling off old jewelry. Then a network of cash-for-gold businesses popped up after<br />
2008, thanks to the almost constant television and radio advertisements by pioneers such as Cash4<strong>Gold</strong>.com.<br />
Now, "We Buy <strong>Gold</strong>" signs are commonplace in windows of American main street stores.<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> recycling in the United States reached its climax when a Cash4<strong>Gold</strong> ad featuring rapper MC Hammer aired during the<br />
2009 Super Bowl, said Michael Toback, a board member of the 47th Street Business Improvement District in New York, who<br />
also owns jewelry refiner Myron Toback.<br />
In Manhattan's bustling Diamond District, many jewelry vendors say Americans may sell their remaining gold if economic conditions<br />
worsen. But many interviewed by <strong>Reuters</strong> agree that business has slowed by as much as a third from past year.<br />
EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOW DOWN TOO<br />
The change in psychology is evident elsewhere too.<br />
"I think everybody is still bullish about the market. They don't want to sell for the time being," says Hong Kong-based Dick<br />
Poon, manager at Heraeus Precious Metals, a German company that is a leading global metals dealer and refiner.<br />
In the historic center of Mexico City, several streets are crowded with kiosks where people line up to sell gold chains, medallions,<br />
earrings or bracelets for cash. Vendors weigh it all on simple scales. But Luna says business is drying up.<br />
"People don't have their parents' or grandparents' gold anymore, they've sold it," said Luna. "We are not seeing the same<br />
amount of volume that we saw before, every day there is less, of both gold and silver."<br />
And in the country which consumes more gold than any other, <strong>India</strong>, where gold jewelry is a central part of the culture from<br />
weddings to holidays, reselling gold has become a rarity.<br />
"The selling crowd has disappeared," Daman Prakash Rathod of gold wholesaler MNC Bullion said by telephone from Chennai.<br />
Watching friends and neighbors rue their decisions to sell at $1,000 or $1,200 or even $1,500 an ounce, he reckons other <strong>India</strong>ns<br />
have learned a lesson.<br />
"The excessive scrap that used to come a few years ago has stopped, and people who have sold must be cursing themselves for<br />
doing so at lower prices."<br />
Investor frostiness to palladium will thaw<br />
By Amanda Cooper<br />
LONDON, Aug 19 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
T<br />
he darkening economic outlook this month has sent investors out of the palladium market in droves, but the coming<br />
months of uncertainty are likely to be more of a cooling-off period than an end to their romance with last year's star<br />
performer.<br />
Palladium, which is mainly used in catalytic converters for gasoline-powered vehicle engines, has been one of the<br />
weakest commodities this year, falling about 5 percent to around $750 an ounce, after having virtually doubled in 2010.<br />
Last week marked the largest decline in speculative holdings of U.S. palladium futures on record , while exchange-traded funds<br />
lost more metal in that one week than in the preceding eight weeks together.<br />
The overarching concern among money managers and policymakers over the economic impact of vast U.S. and euro zone debts<br />
has sent speculators scurrying out of any assets that depend on growth.<br />
31
SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES ————————-- GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL BATTERED AUGUST AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN 2011 BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY $1,622/OZ DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
Palladium is one of the best gauges of investor sentiment towards the global economy, because the auto sector relies on demand<br />
from both the developed and emerging worlds.<br />
"It's all about industrial production, and at the moment it's not a happy story," said Sharps Pixley Chief Executive Ross Norman.<br />
"Fundamentally, I think it remains an attractive buy, but that depends on your view of how the economy plays out."<br />
Palladium will get hit further if the economic situation worsens significantly, he said, but "ultimately investors will seek to buy<br />
hard assets of all classes, and it will be a case of a rising tide lifting all boats in the commodities world".<br />
Societe Generale metals strategist David Wilson described the supply picture for palladium as "fairly positive" for prices. Without<br />
sales of Russian state stocks of the metal, the palladium market would have been in deficit since 2007.<br />
"Russian government stockpiles have dwindled, we think sales are going to be considerably lower than they have been in the<br />
past, and there is unlikely to be any expansion from (world number one producer) Norilsk (Nickel) over the next few years either,"<br />
he said.<br />
"The fall-off in palladium might be a good buying point," Wilson said.<br />
HOLDINGS DOWN<br />
Speculative holdings of palladium, as reflected by open interest held by net non-commercial traders on NYMEX, have fallen by<br />
nearly 20 percent so far this year, or 286,300 ounces, their largest decline since a record 6.85 million ounce exodus in 2006.<br />
While it is possible to dismiss the rush for the exits on NYMEX as little more than an expression of frustration among short-term<br />
speculators, the bleed of metal from exchange-traded funds reflects a more worrying trend among players with longer-term<br />
investment horizons.<br />
ETFs backed by physical metal, which helped fuel the 73 percent rise in investment demand for palladium last year -- thanks to<br />
the U.S. listing of ETF Securities' palladium fund -- have seen unrelenting outflows this year.<br />
Global ETF holdings of palladium haven fallen by nearly 20 percent in 2011, mirroring the decline in speculative interest in palladium<br />
futures, which together equate to about 550,000 ounces, or 50 percent of last year's total of 1.085 million ounces of<br />
investment demand.<br />
One of the principal drivers for investment in palladium over the prior two years was the explosion in demand for cars in China,<br />
which last year overtook the United States as the world's largest auto market.<br />
The logo of a gold jewellery shop is seen in Bucharest August 19, 2011. <strong>Gold</strong> prices rallied more than 2.5 percent to a record high as investors sought refuge from a second<br />
day of hefty losses on the stock markets, hurt by deepening concerns over slowing economic growth and the outlook for euro zone banks. REUTERS/Bogdan Cristel<br />
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SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES ————————-- GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL BATTERED AUGUST AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN 2011 BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY $1,622/OZ DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
But curbs on vehicle registrations and the end of a series of subsidies for new car purchases have slowed year-on-year sales<br />
growth in China to less than 6 percent in the first half of the year from 48 percent in the same period of 2010.<br />
In the United States, car sales are up modestly so far this year, yet economists are attaching ever-rising chances of the world's<br />
largest economy tipping back into recession, which would almost certainly bite into consumer spending power.<br />
Sharps Pixley's Norman noted the average age of a car today is 11 years, compared with 8.5 years in 1995, indicating that consumers<br />
invest in new vehicles less frequently.<br />
"Wherever you look, those macro issues that are very supportive for gold are obviously not supportive for palladium," said Societe<br />
Generale's Wilson said. In contrast to palladium, gold, perceived by many to be the safest of safe-havens has risen by over<br />
30 percent to record highs this year.<br />
"At times like these, palladium tends to suffer as the industrial tag has been out of vogue in the last month or so," said Saxo<br />
Bank senior manager Ole Hansen. "Cyclicals will have their day in the sun again, but just not now."<br />
Silver shines bright, to climb steadily in second half<br />
By Rujun Shen and Rajendra Jadhav<br />
SINGAPORE/MUMBAI, July 14 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
S ilver<br />
prices, deeply dented but unbroken by a rout in May, will climb steadily through the second half of the year as investors<br />
buy the metal as an alternative to expensive gold.<br />
Despite a swoon following a 60 percent rally to a peak in April, silver continues to lead the precious metals complex<br />
with a gain of 24 percent so far this year, outstripping gold's rise of 11 percent, and retains allure for inflation-wary investors.<br />
Silver , notorious for its price volatility, stung many investors with a drop of 33 percent over six sessions in early May from a record<br />
of $49.51 an ounce on April 28.<br />
Silver prices have held above $32 since mid-May, and are set to move higher in the second half of the year, supported by low<br />
interest rates in the United States, a sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone and inflation concerns in key emerging economies<br />
such as <strong>India</strong> and China.<br />
"Lingering fears of a sovereign debt crisis, inflationary pressures and a slowdown in the recovery continue to drive investors to<br />
look for a safe haven and hedge against uncertainty," said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures.<br />
"When gold hits a record high, investors will once again search for a cheaper alternative to gold, and silver may be the best candidate."<br />
On Thursday, spot gold extended its winning streak to a ninth session, hitting a record top of $1,589.56 an ounce, while silver<br />
extended a rise of 5.6 percent from the previous session to $38.38.<br />
2011 metals performance: ( http://link.reuters.com/cad62s )<br />
<strong>India</strong>'s silver investment: ( http://link.reuters.com/gyr52s )<br />
<strong>Gold</strong>-silver ratio: ( http://link.reuters.com/bum62s )<br />
Global silver fabrication demand: ( http://link.reuters.com/ser29r )<br />
Shanghai silver price and volume: ( http://link.reuters.com/zem62s )<br />
NOT LOSING MOMENTUM ANYMORE<br />
Phillip Futures expects silver prices to reach $43 in the second half of the year, while Barclays Capital expects prices to reach<br />
$40.2 in the third quarter.<br />
"Silver is looking reasonably good in the second half, as prices have been basing around $35, and is not losing momentum any<br />
more," said Mark Pervan, Global Head of Commodity Research at ANZ.<br />
Trading volumes for silver on the Shanghai <strong>Gold</strong> Exchange, China's flagship precious metals bourse, shot up to 2.257 million kg<br />
on May 13. While they plunged to 475,056 kg on July 13, that is still more than three times the average daily volume of 151,966<br />
kg last year.<br />
"Obviously there is strong support at current levels from physical demand -- mainly investment demand," a Tokyo-based trader<br />
said. "Prices below $35 should be a comfortable level for people to buy."<br />
The silver growth story will be underlined by continued Asian preference for the physical metal and rising demand for exchange<br />
-traded funds, analysts and traders said.<br />
"Physical silver bar hoarding will continue to gain momentum, because Asian, in particular Chinese, investors have a preference<br />
for physical rather than futures-based holdings in precious markets," said Pervan of ANZ.<br />
The outflow from silver-backed exchange-traded funds is also likely to be coming to an end, and the possibility of rising ETF<br />
demand will further buoy silver in years to come, Pervan said.<br />
33
SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES ————————-- GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL BATTERED AUGUST AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN 2011 BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY $1,622/OZ DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
ETFs let investors profit from price rises without owning physical material and have become popular among Western investors.<br />
Growth of such funds has helped gold prices take off, as the increasing holdings add to the demand for bullion. "The ETF story<br />
that has driven gold in the past four or five years is a new dynamic in silver," said Pervan.<br />
"Further build-up in silver ETF demand may be slightly more than what you'll see in gold, a lot of which is driven by a lower entry<br />
point to precious metals provided by silver -- it's 1/40 of gold's price, which is always going to be a trigger for small investors."<br />
The gold-silver ratio, or the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold, dropped to a one-month low of 41.4,<br />
off its lows under 32 in late April when spot silver prices rallied to the record high.<br />
IShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, rose more than 1 percent on the day to 9,633.95 tonnes by July 13, nearly 15<br />
times the fund's holdings at inception in April 2006. The world's biggest gold ETF, SPDR <strong>Gold</strong> Trust , reported holdings at<br />
1,225.41 tonnes, 151 times its holdings when the fund was launched in 2004. It would rank No.6 on the list of the world's top<br />
gold holders, right after France and ahead of China.<br />
Silver prices in the second half will also hinge on a pickup in demand from <strong>India</strong>, the world's largest bullion consumer and<br />
fourth biggest silver consumer in terms of fabrication demand. A number of gold ETFs have attracted increasing interest from<br />
investors in <strong>India</strong> this year, but silver ETFs are yet to launch due to regulatory uncertainties.<br />
GOOD MONSOON TO UNLOCK INDIA BUYS<br />
Retail investors in <strong>India</strong> rushed to buy silver bars and coins during the metal's meteoric rise early this year, only to rue their luck<br />
when the May rout shaved a third off the metal's value. But dealers say good monsoon rains and bulging farm incomes could<br />
bring back buyers.<br />
"If farmers get good crops, certainly demand would rise from rural households," said Harshad Ajmera, proprietor of wholesaler<br />
JJ <strong>Gold</strong> House in the eastern city of Kolkata. The monsoon has so far gone smoothly and bodes well for rural earnings.<br />
But silver imports will slow at least for the next month or two, coinciding with <strong>India</strong>'s monsoon season, which typically sees a<br />
lull in gold and silver buys as farmers focus on sowing crops. Rural areas make up 70 percent of <strong>India</strong>'s gold demand and more<br />
than 60 percent of its silver consumption.<br />
"I usually buy gold and silver jewellery at the time of the Diwali festival," said Vikram Patil, a 50-year-old cotton farmer from<br />
Jalgaon in <strong>India</strong>'s western state of Maharashtra, referring to the Hindu festival of lights, which usually falls in October. "If my<br />
earnings improve, I will invest more in jewellery."<br />
A piece of raw emerald is displayed at the Emerald Museum in Bogota August 17, 2011. REUTERS/Fredy Builes<br />
34
SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES ————————-- GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL BATTERED AUGUST AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN 2011 BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY $1,622/OZ DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
Panners, big miners scramble to join Australia's gold rush<br />
By James Regan<br />
SYDNEY, Aug 25 (<strong>Reuters</strong>) -<br />
O<br />
n his days off, Cordell Kent drives with his family about an hour into the eastern Australian countryside, lays out a<br />
picnic blanket and then joins hundreds of other families panning for gold in hopes of striking it rich.<br />
Heavy rains last year in the Ballarat gold fields that rinsed more nuggets and gold dust through the river systems,<br />
coupled with a meteoric rise in bullion to record prices, are putting fresh polish on a practice dating back to the Roman<br />
Empire.<br />
"We're seeing a whole new gold rush now around Ballarat, one where people are cashing in and making real money at very little<br />
cost," says Kent, who sells do-it-yourself mining equipment when he's not panning.<br />
A 35 percent surge in gold to a record high above $1,900 an ounce this year, outpacing an 11 percent gain for a broader commodities<br />
index, has triggered the gold frenzy.<br />
The vast majority of the 268 tonnes of gold found last year in Australia was by mining companies with headquarters overseas or<br />
on the western coast in Perth.<br />
Next year's take from Australia could be even higher by as much as 10 tonnes, or 9.6 million ounces, according to the Australian<br />
Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences .<br />
Even so, that falls short of the bumper 314 tonnes of gold mined in Australia in 1997.<br />
Asset returns in 2011: ( http://r.reuters.com/suz52s )<br />
<strong>Gold</strong> correlation with dollar: ( http://r.reuters.com/ryx52s )<br />
Inflation adjusted gold price: ( http://r.reuters.com/pun62s )<br />
Bullion this week traded above $1,900 an ounce for the first time, and although it pulled back to $1,750 an ounce, is still heading<br />
for its eleventh consecutive year of gains.<br />
Kent doubts a price correction would deter prospecting.<br />
He says panners, including his 15-year-old son, can find hundreds, or even thousands of dollars worth of gold. Some, he claims,<br />
have found nuggets weighing up to four ounces.<br />
What many consider the largest nugget ever found, dubbed "The Welcome Stranger", was dug up in Ballarat in 1869 and<br />
weighed 2,283 ounces.<br />
35
SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES ————————-- GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL BATTERED AUGUST AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN 2011 BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY $1,622/OZ DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
Panners submerge their pans in moving water to capture sediment, sorting the gold from the gravel and other material. As<br />
gold is much denser than rock, it quickly settles to the bottom of the pan.<br />
MAKING HAY<br />
Australia is the world's second-largest gold producing nation behind China. Its western gold fields are home to more millionaires<br />
per capita then anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere.<br />
Even a young Herbert Hoover tried his luck in Australia, working as a metallurgist for gold mines in the west before returning to<br />
America and being elected the 31st U.S. president.<br />
Anglo<strong>Gold</strong> Ashanti Ltd's Tropicana mine, under development at a cost of $700 million, is the top major Australian gold discovery<br />
of the past decade and is expected to produce about 480,000 ounces of gold a year.<br />
"Now is the time to make hay and the mining companies know it," says Keith Goode, director of Eagle Mining Research in Sydney.<br />
"These things go in cycles."<br />
Integra Mining expects to mine 100,000 ounces of gold this year from virtually nothing a year ago to maximise gold sales at<br />
higher prices.<br />
One of Australia's biggest gold producers, Melbourne-based Newcrest Mining , this week posted a 36 percent rise in underlying<br />
annual profit thanks to higher gold prices. This year, Newcrest Chief Executive Greg Robinson has vowed to dig deeper and produce<br />
up to 2.925 million ounces of gold, up from 2.53 million ounces in the 2011/12financial year.<br />
Even in Australia, regarded as an economy insulated from much of the economic and social turbulence occurring elsewhere,<br />
gold holds more appeal for investors over stocks.<br />
Since August 2006 the gold price in Australian dollars has outpaced the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries <strong>Gold</strong> index by more than 300<br />
percent.<br />
Investors in droves have sought a refuge in bullion<br />
from a stock market meltdown, fears about sovereign<br />
debts in Europe and the United States and worries<br />
about a recession.<br />
"The world economic and political issues are supporting<br />
a very strong gold price," says Newcrest's<br />
Robinson.<br />
MINERS CHOOSE GOLD<br />
Perth company Emergent Resources has put its<br />
plans to exploit iron ore deposits in the far west outback<br />
on hold to dig for gold.<br />
Another Perth-based company, Norton <strong>Gold</strong> Fields ,<br />
made a A$13.1 million profit this year after losing<br />
A$32.8 million last year, thanks to strong gold prices,<br />
and now expects even better profits next year as it<br />
turns up production.<br />
"Our balance sheet is much stronger than a year ago<br />
and will continue to improve as we reduce our debt<br />
levels," Norton Managing Director Andre Labuschange<br />
said.<br />
The company still owes about A$65 million under a<br />
hedging arrangement with the now-defunct Lehman<br />
Brothers bank but plans to make a voluntary repayment<br />
next month, bringing the outstanding amount<br />
to about A$50 million, he said<br />
Hedging of gold -- selling ounces to be mined at a<br />
later date for a fixed forward price -- a relic of the<br />
1990's when gold sold for as little as $253 an ounce -<br />
- is now taboo for many mining companies, whose<br />
shareholders want as much exposure as they can get<br />
to any upside in bullion.<br />
Globally, only 5.1 million ounces of gold were hedged<br />
in the first quarter, according to a tally by ABN Amro,<br />
out of forecast production this year of around 76 million<br />
ounces.<br />
Signs for merchants who buy and sell gold, silver and coins hang outside their shops in Paris<br />
August 11, 2011. REUTERS/John Schults<br />
36
SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES ————————-- GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL BATTERED AUGUST AVERSION ON HIGH JAPAN 2011 BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY $1,622/OZ DOWNGRADE CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL LOSS SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
SELLING FAMILY JEWELS<br />
It's not just mining companies and people with pans and shovels targeting gold.<br />
Jerry Zheng, a mobile phone salesman in Sydney, said he recently paid A$38,000 for a machine to analyse the gold content of<br />
jewellery after setting up a retail gold buying business.<br />
Zheng said business is brisk and that enough people are willing to sell everything from family heirlooms to objects of desire<br />
from loves long lost at today's prices to warrant the small profit he makes on each transaction.<br />
"We don't have any problem selling what we buy to refineries to melt down and resell as pure gold," Zheng said.<br />
At $1,900 an ounce, Zheng said his profit on an ounce was around $38.<br />
Zheng will also pay a 10 percent commission to anyone who hosts a party where neighbours are encouraged to sell their gold<br />
jewellery to his company.<br />
"We haven't had too much success with gold parties yet, but we are trying," Zheng said. "People are slowly understanding they<br />
can make money from gold."<br />
A man displays a gold necklace decorated with precious stones at a jewellery shop in Lahore April 21, 2011. <strong>India</strong> gold recovered from its previous session's losses on<br />
Thursday to hit another record high nearing 22,000 rupees ($495) following firm overseas markets, triggering purchases from physical traders to stock for festivals.<br />
REUTERS/Mohsin Raza<br />
37
SINGAPORE GOLD COMMODITIES GOLD GOLD: REBOUNDS HITS HOVERS WILL RECORD RISK INTERNATIONAL SHIVER BATTERED NEAR AVERSION ON HIGH RECORDS JAPAN AFTER BY ABOVE BANISH DEBT SHARPEST ENERGY U.S. ON $1,622/OZ CREDIT DOWNGRADE U.S. CORRECTION WEEK—SPECIAL DEBT LOSS DOWNGRADE WOES SINCE DESPITE FEARS? MAY PDF CORRECTION FEARS NOVEMBER AUGUST JULY JULY 2010 2011<br />
2011<br />
EDITORIAL:<br />
Clarence Fernandez ( Senior Sub Editor, Commodities & Energy )<br />
+65 6870 3861, clarence.fernandez@thomsonreuters.com<br />
Richard Mably (Global Editor, Commodities & Energy)<br />
+44-207-542-6280, richard.mably@thomsonreuters.com<br />
Veronica Brown (Editor, Commodities and Energy, EMEA)<br />
+44-20-7542-8065, Veronica.brown@thomsonreuters.com<br />
Jonathan Leff (Editor, Commodities & Energy, Americas)<br />
+1-646-223-6068, jonathan.leff@thomsonreuters.com<br />
Sambit Mohanty (Editor in Charge, Commodities & Energy,<br />
Asia), +65-6870-3084, sambit.mohanty@thomsonreuters.com<br />
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