Singapore Banking Sector - Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Singapore Banking Sector
Results Season Takeaways
Report type: Update
Sector Overview
The Singapore Banking Sector provides traditional lending
and depository functions, as well as other services in the
areas of commercial banking, financial advisory, asst
management, insurance broking and capital market
services.
Post Results Highlight
Non Interest income
Non Interest Income beat expectations due to strong
performance of net trading income
Net trading income likely due to strong performances in
indices in 1Q12 leading higher valuation gains
Strong performances unlikely to be repeated in 2Q12 or
FY12, given currently macroeconomic uncertainties.
Net Interest Margins
NIMs improved 1-4bps in 1Q12, with OCBC’s NIMs
growth weakest at 1bps and DBS strongest at 4bps
DBS and OCBC guides possible upside potentials while
UOB guides that NIMs may have peaked
We expect NIMs to remain around current range
Loans growth outlook
Loans growth have slowed as guided by Managements
General Commerce loans slow due to decrease in RMB
appreciation driven trades, but expected to remain
relatively strong for the rest of FY2012
Strong growth of USD deposits to benefit growth of trade
finance business for UOB and DBS
We expect loans to SMEs to drive loans growth for
FY2012, and contributing to growth of non-interest
income
Investment actions
Based on 5 year historical price to book, all three banks are
below historical mean PB ratio, possibly indicating cheap
pricing based on valuations. While uncertainties in the
current macroeconomic conditions continue to suppress
prices, we think that DBS will outperform its local peers with
continued growth and strong performance. We rate DBS as
“Accumulate” while maintaining our “Neutral” call on UOB
and OCBC.
MICA (P) 012/01/2012
Ref. No.: SG2012_0136 1 of 10
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
18 May 2012
Singapore Banking Sector
Company Rating Price TP Upside M.Cap.
(S$) (S$) (%) (US$'mn)
DBS Group Holdings Ltd Accumulate 13.30 14.90 12.0% 25,220
Overseas Chinese
Banking Corp Neutral 8.43 8.20 -2.7% 22,639
United Overseas Bank Neutral 17.48 17.50 0.1% 21,582
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
Analyst
Ken Ang
Kenangw y@phillip.com.sg
Tel : (65) 6531 1793

Singapore Banking Sector
Singapore Equities Research
18 May 2012
Earnings surprise largely attributed to likely nonrecurring
strong performance of net trading income
Fig 1: Strong performance of Indices supported net
trading income in 1Q12, but largely flat since then
FTSE Straits Times Index – trending downwards since
1Q12, expected to be relatively flat for rest of FY2012
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI – Growth may be further
stimulated with possible policy rate cuts
Indonesia Sharia Stock Index – higher highs since 1Q12,
expected to perform relatively stronger than the STI
Thailand SET Index– higher highs since 1Q12, expected to
perform relatively stronger than the STI
Source: bigcharts.marketwatch.com, Phillip Securities Research
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Higher trading income contributed largely to the positive
earnings surprise. Trading income generally refers to
income from customer flow of treasury products, and from
trading activities including realized gains from sale of AFS
securities, and unrealized valuation gains on other products
such as FVTPL. The strong performances of the indices in
the Asean region may have supported the stronger net
trading income through higher equity valuation gains, and
greater opportunities to realize gains on AFS.
Moving forward, our strategist believes that while the market
outlook for export dependant countries such as Singapore
and Taiwan would be rather flat, countries such as Malaysia,
Indonesia and Thailand are expected to experience
relatively better economic growth. For Malaysia, given the
lower and more stable inflation rate, growth may be further
stimulated with policy rate cuts. This may benefit bonds due
to their inverse correlations with interest rates, while equity
securities perform in tandem with the Malaysian market.
However, as observed from the graphs in Fig 1, it is unlikely
for 1Q12’s strong net trading income to be repeated in 2Q12
and likely for the rest of FY2012, other than realizing current
valuation gains on AFS. Downward potentials to net trading
income may arise from further slowdown in the global
economy or from adverse developments on the debt crisis in
Europe. We are unable to do a comparison between the
three banks due to lack of disclosure by the banks.
NIMs improved in 1Q12 from better loans pricing – likely
to be stable and remain within current range for FY2012
Fig 2: NIMS have been trending downwards but
seems to have bottomed in 3Q11
2.25
2.15
2.05
1.95
1.85
1.75
1.65
OCBC DBS
UOB
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Source: Company data, Phillip Securities Research
NIMs have expanded across the three banks in 1Q12, with
DBS the strongest at 4bps, and OCBC weakest at 1bp.
UOB continued its strong rebound, increasing 3bps to
register a commendable 9bps increase since hitting lows in
3Q11. As previously highlighted in our 4Q11 results season
takeaway report, UOB’s increase in NIMS is likely due to the
offering of higher maturity loans, therefore commanding a
liquidity premium. However, longer maturity loans also pose
higher interest rate risks (for fixed rate loans) and credit risks.
DBS and OCBC has commented that there may be potential
for further NIMs expansion, while UOB guided that NIMs
may have peaked. With UOB’s main overseas markets
being in countries with relatively better market outlooks such
as Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, we prefer UOB for its
current high NIMs ability to increase NIMs significantly.

Singapore Banking Sector
Singapore Equities Research
18 May 2012
Loans growth expected to gather momentum from
slower 1Q12
Fig 3: Q-Q Loans growth momentum slows in 1Q12
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
OCBC DBS
UOB Total
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Fig 4: Q-Q Total loans growth among local banks
negative in a few industries, but remain relatively
strong in housing, FIs, Professional & private loans
Total loans q-q grow th 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Agriculture
-4.0% 9.1% 18.2% 1.3%
Manufacturing
12.0% 5.0% 7.2% 2.4%
Building and construction 3.8% 8.4% 8.0% 1.8%
General commerce
24.0% 20.9% 1.9% -1.2%
Transport
6.1% 4.7% 4.4% -2.5%
Financial institutions
3.2% 9.3% 1.0% 4.9%
Professional and private (business) 7.0% 3.0% 7.5% 2.1%
Others
10.6% 5.3% 0.3% -4.8%
Housing
3.0% 4.8% 3.6% 3.1%
Total loans
7.6% 8.0% 4.2% 1.3%
Source: Company data, Phillip Securities Research
Loans growth momentum has slowed, but remains positive
for all three banks on an average loan balance basis. With
similar guidance of low teens loans growth, we expect
growth to increase for the next few quarters. We note that
current gross balances were likely reduced due to the
appreciation of the Singapore Dollar in 1Q12 against the
Asian currencies.
Fig 5: General Commerce loans VS Total Loans
Growth – growth may continue in FY2012
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
OCBC DBS
UOB Total
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Source: Company data, Phillip Securities Research
General Commerce (GC) loans have slowed, registering its
first negative q-q growth since 3Q09, based on the total GC
loans across the three banks. OCBC’s CEO Samuel Tsien
has guided that the drop was due to a decrease in demand
from the RMB appreciation driven trade financing by
customers from China, as written in our OCBC 1Q12 results
report dd 11 May 2012.
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We expect GC loans to continue its growth in FY2012 as 1)
New opportunities have risen from the deleveraging of
global banks as highlighted in our Sector reports. 2)
Success of Singapore’s Global Trader Program in increasing
trading activities with Singapore as companies’ regional
base. 3) An increase in intra Asia trade volumes.
Due to the attractive returns, short term commitments and
safe quality of assets as these loans are typically fully
collateralized, we expect General Commerce to continue
healthy loans growth in FY12. The three banks have also
built up a larger funding base of USD deposits and
wholesale funding, giving them the liquidity required to
increase USD denominated lending.
Fig 6: USD LDR continues to decrease as banks
boost USD liquidity through higher deposits (UOB
figs. not available)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
OCBC US$ DBS US$
OCBC LDR DBS LDR
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Source: Company data, Phillip Securities Research
180%
170%
160%
150%
140%
130%
120%
110%
100%
DBS continues to enjoy an advantage in General commerce
loans due to a larger and more established presence, while
UOB may perform better than OCBC due to better liquidity
management based on the LDR ratios.
Rise of the SMEs – Singapore and Abroad
Based on SPRING Singapore, 99% of all enterprises in
Singapore are SMEs, contributing over 50% of Singapore’s
GDP. Growth is likely further spurred by the low interest rate
environment, and increase in intra Asian trades as the
neighboring Asian countries continue to grow, although at a
slower pace. The local banks have stepped in, increasing
efforts to provide loans and transaction banking services,
including trade financing and cash management services.
While competition remains stiff for MNCs and larger SMEs,
the relatively smaller sized SMEs are relatively underserved
and provide opportunities for banks. Transaction Banking is
especially lucrative given the potential fees and
commissions and lower capital requirements.
Key risks for the Sector
A worsening global economy may result in rise of NPLs and
credit costs, as affected customers, especially SMEs and
unsecured consumer loans, default on loan repayments.
This may result in reduced net profits.
The return of US banks flushed with USD liquidity, as
suggested by OCBC’s CEO, re-entering the Asian markets
may provide competition to the Singapore banks and
increase NIMS pressure in the region.
90%

Singapore Banking Sector
Singapore Equities Research
18 May 2012
Com pany Rating FYE Price TP Upside Market Ent. Market Ent.
Equity Multiple (X) Dividend Yield (%)
Market price as of:
Cap. Value Cap. Value Net Incom e Book Value
18-May-12 (%) (S$'m n) (S$'m n) (US$'mn)(US$'mn) FY10 FY11 FY12E FY10 FY11 FY12E FY10 FY11 FY12E
DBS Group Holdings Ltd Accumulate Dec 13.30 14.90 12.0% 32,140 38,494 25,220 30,277 19.7 10.6 9.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 4.2% 4.2% 4.3%
Overseas Chinese Banking Corp Neutral Dec 8.43 8.20 -2.7% 28,850 19,710 22,639 15,366 12.8 12.5 11.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
United Overseas Bank
Source: Bloomberg, PSR est.
Neutral Dec 17.48 17.50 0.1% 27,503 26,169 21,582 20,521 10.2 11.8 10.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 4.0% 3.4% 3.4%
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Singapore Banking Sector
Singapore Equities Research
18 May 2012
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp – Insurance “wildcard”
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
DBS Group Holdings – Most stable Non II earnings
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
United Overseas Bank Ltd
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
OCBC - PB ratio
SD+1
SD-1
May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12
DBS - PB ratio
SD+1
SD-1
May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research
1.83
1.51
1.23 1.20
1.49
1.23
1.08
0.98
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- Net profit y-y growth slower than Total revenue growth
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012
Non Int Inc
Fees and
Comm
NII
Net Profit
PPOP
- Increasing y-y earnings from Non II, High net profit growth
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012
- Minimal y-y growth in total revenue
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
19.0
17.0
15.0
13.0
11.0
9.0
7.0
0
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012
UOB - PB ratio
SD+1
SD-1
OCBC - PE ratio
SD+1
SD-1
Non Int Inc
Fees and
Comm
NII
Net Profit
PPOP
Non Int Inc
Fees and
Comm
NII
Net Profit
PPOP
May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12
May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research
1.83
1.57
1.27 1.31
15.33
13.64
11.94

Singapore Banking Sector
Singapore Equities Research
18 May 2012
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
DBS - PE ratio
SD+1
SD-1
-
May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12
6
4
2
0
-4
-6
-8
25 April 12 rebased
-2
4/25/2012 5/1/2012 5/7/2012 5/13/2012
8
6
4
2
0
-4
-6
-8
OCB C
DBS
UOB
STI
1 month rebased
4/17/2012 -2
4/25/2012 5/3/2012 5/11/2012
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
OCBC
DBS
UOB
STI
OCBC
DB S
UOB
STI
3 months rebased
2/17/2012 3/8/2012 3/28/2012 4/17/2012 5/7/2012
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research
15.37
12.47
9.56
6 of 10
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
25
20
15
10
5
0
-10
-15
10
5
0
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
UOB - PE ratio
SD+1
SD-1
May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12
OCBC
DBS
UOB
STI
2 Year rebased
5/19/2010 10/19/2010 3/19/2011 8/19/2011 1/19/2012
OCB C
DBS
UOB
STI
1 Year rebased
5/19/2011 -5 7/19/2011 9/19/201111/19/20111/19/2012 3/19/2012
OCB C
DBS
UOB
STI
6 months rebased
15.17
13.02
10.87
11/18/201 -5 12/18/20111/18/2012 2/18/20123/18/2012 4/18/2012 5/18/2012
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research

Singapore Banking Sector
Singapore Equities Research
18 May 2012
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Chan Wai Chee Lee Kok Joo, CFA Joshua Tan
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Special Opportunities S-Chips, Strategy +65 6531 1249
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yebo@phillip.com.sg leekj@phillip.com.sg
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SG & US Financials, Gaming Property Transportation, Telecom.
+65 6531 1791 +65 6531 1792 +65 6531 1221
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Investment Analyst Investment Analyst Research Assistant
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