Evacuation and traffic management (full report) - FLOODsite

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Task 17 Evacuation D17-1 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 7.2 The choice of the Gard pilot area .................................................................... 132 7.3 Description of the PICH inventory.................................................................. 132 7.4 Hydrological data ............................................................................................ 134 7.5 Geographical data ............................................................................................ 136 7.6 Evaluation of the road vulnerability ................................................................ 137 7.6.1 Introduction........................................................................................ 137 7.6.2 Step 1: identification of the potentially flooded road sections........... 137 7.6.3 Identification of road flooding vulnerability indicators ..................... 138 7.6.4 Conclusions........................................................................................ 144 7.6.5 Combination of flood vulnerability indicators ................................... 145 7.6.6 Validation and conclusions ................................................................ 146 7.7 Distributed rainfall-runoff simulation.............................................................. 147 7.7.1 Specification of the rainfall - runoff model........................................ 147 7.7.2 Model parameterisation...................................................................... 148 7.7.3 Choice of Curve Numbers (CN)......................................................... 149 7.7.4 Choice of river reach widths .............................................................. 149 7.7.5 Calibration procedure......................................................................... 150 7.7.6 Calibration results .............................................................................. 151 7.7.7 Validation of the results ..................................................................... 154 7.8 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 155 7.9 Development of a road inundation forecasting prototype ............................... 155 7.9.1 Objectives and evaluation criterions .................................................. 155 7.9.2 Definition of a submersion risk index ................................................ 156 7.10 Evaluation of the proposed approach .............................................................. 157 7.10.1 Detection of the hot spots................................................................... 157 7.10.2 Time sequence of submersion warnings ............................................ 160 7.11 Use of emergency routing techniques developed by the Orchestra project piloted in the Gard Region..................................................................................................... 162 7.11.1 Introduction........................................................................................ 162 7.12 Background to the internet based routing services developed under Orchestra165 7.13 Application of the web based routing services to the Gard Region................. 166 7.14 End user consultation....................................................................................... 166 7.14.1 Background ........................................................................................ 166 7.14.2 User feedback..................................................................................... 167 7.15 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 168 8. Conclusions and recommendations.............................................................................. 169 8.1 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 169 8.1.1 Introduction........................................................................................ 169 8.1.2 User requirements for evacuation planning........................................ 169 8.1.3 Evacuation modelling for flood event management........................... 169 8.1.4 Application of evacuation models in the Thames Estuary ................. 170 8.1.5 Application of evacuation models in the Schelde Estuary ................. 170 8.1.6 Development of a prototype flash-flood warning system for roads in the Gard Region ................................................................................................ 172 8.2 Recommendations ........................................................................................... 172 9. References .................................................................................................................... 173 Tables Table 2.1 Management activities in the UK 12 Table 2.2 Response activities in the UK 13 Table 5.1 Selected LSM objects 66 Table 5.2 Range of scenarios modelled for Thamesmead showing the code used to denote each model run 70 T17_07_02_Evacuation_and_traffic_management_D17_1_V4_4_P01.doc 19 03 2008 viii
Task 17 Evacuation D17-1 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 Table 5.3 Percentage of fatalities within Thamesmead for the modelled scenarios 73 Table 5.4 Percentage of people injured within Thamesmead for the modelled scenarios 74 Table 5.5 Costing weightings to assess different emergency planning options 77 Table 5.6 Costing weightings to assess different emergency planning options 77 Table 5.7 Summary of results of the evacuation time based on a simple spreadsheet model 83 Table 6.1 Overview of the exits and their capacity 95 Table 6.2 Description of evacuation categories and their car occupation 96 Table 6.3 Distribution of inhabitants over the different evacuation categories 96 Table 6.4 Summary of all assumptions used in the application of the Evacuation Calculator on the Schelde pilot 97 Table 6.5 Resulting evacuation times for evacuation of the whole area for different sets of assumptions 99 Table 6.6 Evacuation time of Walcheren compared with the evacuation time of the whole pilot area 101 Table 6.7 Evacuation times for use with ESCAPE 106 Table 6.8 Simulations carried out with ESCAPE 107 Table 6.9 The calculated evacuation times for each combination of the parameters in ESCAPE108 Table 6.10 Overview of the exits links and their capacity 112 Table 6.11 INDY evacuation times for the 12 basic scenarios 116 Table 6.12 Scenarios compared by the assignment used. 116 Table 6.13 Scenarios compared on the exits used. 117 Table 6.14 Comparison of evacuation times using linear and S-curve departure profiles 118 Table 6.15 Outcomes of INDY with the addition of the tunnel 120 Table 6.16 Outcomes of INDY with the shortest path 120 Table 6.17 Overview of shelter capacity 122 Table 6.18 Resulting evacuation times - simulations with and without the shelters 123 Table 6.19 Comparison of evacuation times – Evacuation of whole area and critical area 124 Table 6.20 Comparison of Evacuation Calculator with ESCAPE 125 Table 6.21 Comparison of the outcomes of the three models 127 Table 7.1 Results of the initial analysis 138 Table 7.2 Sorting efficiency based on the altitude indicator value 141 Table 7.3 The sorting efficiency based on the slope indicator value. 142 Table 7.4 Sorting efficiency based on the area indicator value 143 Table 7.5 Sorting efficiency based on the discharge indicator value 144 Table 7.6 Sorting efficiency based on the proposed indicator combination 145 Table 7.7 Validation results of the flooding potential index computation method – method 1, combination of geographical indicators and method 2, index based on a discharge ratio146 Table 7.8 Sets of widths based on the Stralher orders and the flood magnitude. 150 Table 7.9 Results of the rainfall - runoff model adjustment 152 Table 7.10 Results of the rainfall – runoff model validation 154 Table 7.11 Verification of the Crupedix and 1 in 2 year return period discharge estimation formula on gauged catchments of the Gard region. 157 Table 7.12 Probability of flooding with or without the hazard information 157 Table 7.13 Synthesis of results obtained for the 21 November 2003 storm on for the test areas 159 Table 7.14 Results for the 6 September 2005 storm 159 Figures Figure 1.1 The disaster risk management cycle 3 Figure 1.2 The stages of evacuation related to the preparation and response phases of the disaster risk management cycle 4 Figure 2.1 Setting up an inner cordon for incident control 17 Figure 2.2 Setting up an outer cordon for incident control 17 Figure 2.3 System of primary water defences and dike rings in the Netherlands 20 Figure 2.4 Administrative and operational responsibilities in a flood emergency in the Netherlands 23 T17_07_02_Evacuation_and_traffic_management_D17_1_V4_4_P01.doc 19 03 2008 ix
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