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Assessment of the Cattle and Hog Industries Calendar Year 2000

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necessitates <strong>the</strong>ir participation in forward contracting, <strong>the</strong>y will be unable to obtain<br />

satisfactory terms in those forward sales agreements.<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r industry participants <strong>and</strong> observers contend that captive supplies do not<br />

appreciably affect spot market prices. These individuals point out that captive supplies<br />

do not alter <strong>the</strong> total supply <strong>of</strong>, nor dem<strong>and</strong> for, livestock. Proponents <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong><br />

captive supplies assert that <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> captive supplies merely shifts <strong>the</strong> distribution<br />

between spot markets <strong>and</strong> contract markets. Many livestock producers <strong>and</strong> university<br />

economists point out that captive supplies reduce transactions costs <strong>and</strong> improve price<br />

signals that reflect differences in animal quality. 105 They point out that captive supplies<br />

are forward sales arrangements that are critical to <strong>the</strong> long-term health <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> beef <strong>and</strong><br />

pork industries, as <strong>the</strong>y are necessary to improve coordination <strong>of</strong> production with<br />

changing consumer preferences.<br />

Concerns about <strong>the</strong> possible effects <strong>of</strong> captive supplies are complicated by doubts about<br />

<strong>the</strong> accuracy <strong>of</strong> available captive-supply data. For example, <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> packer-fed<br />

cattle reported to P&SP by <strong>the</strong> top 15 beef packers declined from 4.7 percent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir total<br />

slaughter in 1988 to 3.7 percent in 1998. 106 Some believe <strong>the</strong> actual percentage is much<br />

higher. In response, <strong>the</strong> Conference Report on USDA’s fiscal year 2001 Agricultural<br />

Appropriation directs <strong>the</strong> Secretary <strong>of</strong> Agriculture to conduct a comprehensive study on<br />

<strong>the</strong> issue <strong>of</strong> captive supplies by September 30, 2001, with <strong>the</strong> following instructions:<br />

In particular, <strong>the</strong> Secretary is instructed to examine <strong>and</strong> report on whe<strong>the</strong>r<br />

or not <strong>the</strong> cattle that are procured pursuant to a captive supply arrangement<br />

by a packer’s non-reporting subsidiary, affiliate <strong>and</strong> owners, <strong>of</strong>ficers <strong>and</strong><br />

employees are being included in <strong>the</strong> percentages reported as captive<br />

supply. The report shall also include <strong>the</strong> reasons why GIPSA’s annual<br />

“Packers <strong>and</strong> Stockyard Statistical Report” frequently reports a captive<br />

supply percentage much lower than <strong>the</strong> percentages reported by o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

entities. 107<br />

Underreporting <strong>of</strong> packer-fed cattle <strong>and</strong> cattle obtained through o<strong>the</strong>r types <strong>of</strong> captive<br />

supply arrangements may make it more difficult for feeders <strong>and</strong> industry analysts to<br />

assess accurately market conditions, including packers’ need to purchase cattle in <strong>the</strong> spot<br />

market.<br />

Economic analyses <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> captive supplies have shown a small inverse<br />

relationship between use <strong>of</strong> captive supplies <strong>and</strong> spot-market prices, but past economic<br />

analyses have not shown that use <strong>of</strong> captive supplies causes lower spot-market prices.<br />

P&SP will continue to monitor <strong>and</strong> seek evidence regarding this complex issue.<br />

105 Purcell, Wayne, White Paper on Status, Conflicts, Issues, Opportunities, <strong>and</strong> Needs in <strong>the</strong> U.S. Beef Industry, Research Instit ute on<br />

Livestock Pricing, Research Bulletin 5-99, May 1999.<br />

106 Packers <strong>and</strong> Stockyards Programs, Packers <strong>and</strong> Stockyards Statistical Report, 1998 Reporting <strong>Year</strong>, GIPSA SR-00-1, GIPSA-<br />

USDA, July <strong>2000</strong>.<br />

107 Conference Report 106-948, 106 th Congress, 2d Session, to accompany H.R. 4461, October 6, <strong>2000</strong>.<br />

34

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