Berlin Conference On The Human Dimensions Of - Rocky Mountain ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Cost of saved or supplied electricity, 2004 US¢/kWh (Savings: 12-y av. life, 4%/y real discount rate; Supply: merchant cashflow model or market empirical; wind: 30-y life, 4%/y real; cogeneration: 25-y life, 4%/y real) 10 –5 ↑↑↑↑↑↑↑↑↑ Keystone (6/07): 10.3 to 12.9¢ 5 Central power stations’ fatal competitors Levelized cost of delivered electricity or end-use efficiency (zero distributed benefits); remote sources incur 2.75¢/kWh (1996 embedded IOU average) delivery cost, including grid losses Median price of 5.7 GW commissioned in 1999–2006, σ = 0.12¢; cheapest was >1.3¢ lower Actual costs depend on many site- and plant-specific factors; all costs on this chart are indicative. Remote <strong>On</strong>site Natural gas: 1 “MCF” (thousand cubic feet) ~ 1.03 million BTU ~ 1.09 GJ all at levelized real prices kWh of coal-fired generation’s net carbon emissions displaceable per $0.10 spent: 1.0 1.2–1.7 0.9–1.7 + 2.2–6.5 + 2.4–8.9 + >2–10 + Broader, esp. residential, and suboptimal programs Good business retrofits Nuclear (MIT) Coal (MIT) + at least + $100/tC new 2005 carbon tax subsidies Combined-cycle 2003–04 wind, Combined- gas (MIT) firmed (0.6¢/kWh) cycle $4–7/MCF + integration (0.3¢) industrial + $100/tC add back subsidy carbon tax (but ignore the BuildingscaleRecoveredheat industrial Optimized new installations (all sectors) probably bigger nuclear subsidies) $5–8/MCF gas Central stations, 2004 subsidies, expected 2012 (some cost less now) Cogeneration (CHP) End-use no reserve margin; the official efficiency studies count only these www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid171.php#E05-14, -15; LBL-41435
So it’s not surprising that worldwide in 2006 … ◊ New nuclear capacity was smaller than solar PV additions, or 1/10 th of windpower additions ◊ Nuclear retirements exceeded additions, so net nuclear capacity fell by 0.5 GW while micropower added >30 net GW ◊ Micropower passed nuclear power in total annual electricity production (16% of total) ◊ Distributed renewables got $56b of private risk capital; nuclear, as always, got zero ◊ And in China, distributed renewables had 49 GW—7× nuclear capacity—and added 7× more per year
Page 2 and 3: Berlin Conference on the Human Dime
Page 4 and 5: What has reduced energy intensity a
Page 6 and 7: 2007 Vattenfall/McKinsey supply cur
Page 8 and 9: Profitable climate protection ◊ G
Page 10 and 11: Independent, transparent, peer-revi
Page 12 and 13: CARS: save 69% at $0.15/L Surprise:
Page 14 and 15: Three technology paths: aluminum, l
Page 16 and 17: Midsize Revolution midsize SUV, 5 a
Page 18 and 19: Carbon-fiber composites: some autom
Page 20 and 21: Emerging powertrain breakthroughs t
Page 22 and 23: 35-kW load-leveling batteries 857-k
Page 24 and 25: The oil industry’s conventional w
Page 26 and 27: Stretching oil supply curve by ~3 T
Page 28 and 29: Key: integrative design—multiple
Page 30 and 31: Houses comfortable with no heating
Page 32 and 33: New design mentality: expanding ret
Page 34 and 35: New design mentality • Pumps and
Page 36 and 37: 99% It’s often remarkably simple
Page 38 and 39: Examples from RMI’s industrial pr
Page 42 and 43: All options face implementation ris
Page 44 and 45: Nuclear power’s market collapse i
Page 46 and 47: Five implementation myths ◊ “It
Page 48 and 49: Implementation reality: Compete to

Berlin Conference On The Human Dimensions Of - Rocky Mountain ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?