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Generics, Frequency Adverbs, and Probability

Generics, Frequency Adverbs, and Probability

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intended for, we need to discuss the restriction of partitions to “suitable”<br />

ones.<br />

Salmon notes that there are two trivial cases of homogeneous reference<br />

classes: when all ψs are φs <strong>and</strong> when no ψs are φs. In the former case, the<br />

probability of φ given any subset of the reference class would be equal to 1,<br />

<strong>and</strong> in the latter case to 0. He observes that, if every partition is considered<br />

suitable, homogeneity would only be satisfied in the trivial cases, since a<br />

partition which violates homogeneity can always be found in any non-trivial<br />

case. Suppose that at least one ψ is a φ, <strong>and</strong> at least one ψ is not a φ;<br />

now let Ω = {φ, ψ ∧ ¬φ}. Ω is clearly a partition of ψ; moreover, it violates<br />

homogeneity, since P (φ|ψ ∧ φ) = 1 <strong>and</strong> P (φ|ψ ∧ (ψ ∧ ¬φ)) = 0. Clearly,<br />

then, not every conceivable way to partition the reference class ought to be<br />

considered; the class of possible partitions must be constrained in some way,<br />

so that only suitable ones be considered, if the concept of homogeneity is to<br />

play any useful role at all.<br />

3.1 F-Admissibility<br />

A natural way to partition the domain of a generic or a frequency adverb is<br />

according to time. Let us redefine the admissibility of histories in such a way<br />

that only histories in which a homogeneous sequence of individuals occurs<br />

will be admissible. We will require that for every “sufficiently long” time<br />

interval, the relative frequency of φs among ψ during this interval should be<br />

equal to the relative frequency over the history as a whole.<br />

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