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Generics, Frequency Adverbs, and Probability

Generics, Frequency Adverbs, and Probability

Generics, Frequency Adverbs, and Probability

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only world open to our inspection is the actual one, but under any reasonable<br />

conception of normality, the actual world is not normal. How, then, can<br />

we tell what things are like in a normal world? And how can we judge the<br />

truth values of generics <strong>and</strong> frequency statements, if such judgments require<br />

knowledge of normal worlds?<br />

Admissible histories, in contrast with normal worlds, are not opaque.<br />

While it is true that admissible histories cannot be observed in their entirety<br />

in the actual world, we are in a position to observe their initial segment,<br />

since all admissible histories continue the relevant part of the actual history.<br />

Thus, the longer the relevant actual history, the more information we have<br />

regarding the admissible histories, <strong>and</strong> the more confidence we have in extrapolating<br />

their properties. This approach provides a direct link between<br />

observations in the actual world <strong>and</strong> the truth judgments of generics <strong>and</strong> frequency<br />

statements: while not completely determining such truth judgments,<br />

observations in the actual world help us extrapolate to admissible histories,<br />

with respect to which we make our truth judgments. No such link is provided<br />

by theories which propose that generics <strong>and</strong> frequency statements are<br />

expressions of normality.<br />

The only requirement from an admissible history is that it continue a<br />

regularity observed throughout a sufficiently long sample in the actual world.<br />

In particular, we need not postulate any rules or laws which hold in an<br />

admissible history. Presumably, an observed regularity does follow from some<br />

rule, be it physical, social, genetic, or whatever; but importantly, we need<br />

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