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Fundamental<br />
Assessment<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> EQUITY RESEARCH SERVICE<br />
KEWAL KIRAN CLOTHING LIMITED<br />
Initiating Coverage Industry: Textile & Retail December 30, 2011<br />
Fundamental and Valuation Grades<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service has assigned the Fundamental Grade ‘4’ and<br />
the Valuation Grade ‘C’ to <strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> (KKCL). The<br />
Fundamental Grade “4” assigned to KKCL implies that the company has<br />
“Strong Fundamentals”. The Valuation Grade ‘C’ assigned to KKCL implies<br />
that the company is “Fairly Valued” on a relative basis (as on the date of the<br />
grading assigned).<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> (KKCL) is one of the leading manufacturer and retailer of<br />
branded apparels and fashion-wear in India. KKCL has over two decades of experience<br />
in the domestic readymade garments industry with some established brands like<br />
‘Killer’, ‘Lawman Pg3’, ‘Integriti’, ‘Easies’ and ‘ADDICTIONS’. KKCL markets its products<br />
through a chain of 223 ‘K-LOUNGE’ showrooms and exclusive brand outlets (EBOs)<br />
across the country. Besides, KKCL’s products are widely marketed at over 3,500 multibrand<br />
outlets (MBOs) and national chain stores like Shoppers’ Stop and Hypercity.<br />
KKCL is an established player in the denim Jeans category through its flagship Killer<br />
brand, besides having a presence in Trousers, Shirts, T-shirts & Jackets. It has also<br />
entered the lifestyle accessories segments like shoes, belts, watches, bracelets, wallets,<br />
caps, bags, sunglasses and deodorants through the ADDICTIONS brand. KKCL’s<br />
designing and manufacturing facilities are mainly located at Dadar and Goregoan<br />
(Mumbai), Daman and Vapi in Western India.<br />
Grading Positives<br />
The key grading positives in our view are: 1) Strongly positioned to benefit from the<br />
domestic consumption play due to Pan-India presence, including its first-mover’s<br />
advantage in the Tier-II / Tier-III cities as well as relatively less penetrated eastern<br />
states 2) established brand equity of its flagship product – Killer Jeans 3) Asset light<br />
model reduces overhead costs while maintaining product & service standards 4)<br />
Continued focus on profitable growth and careful store expansion are expected to<br />
ensure healthy profitability indicators (like RoCE) for the company going forward 5)<br />
Strong designing expertise, vast experience of the promoters’ in the branded apparel<br />
business<br />
Grading Sensitivities<br />
The key grading sensitivities in our view are: 1) Intense competition in the domestic<br />
branded apparels market with presence of large number of domestic as well as global<br />
brands 2) Vulnerability to cotton price fluctuations and regulatory changes (like excise<br />
duty levy) 3) Ability to scale up business while maintaining its financial profile 4) High<br />
dependence on multi-brand outlets (MBOs) and National Chain Stores, which together<br />
contribute ~70% of revenues, can limit bargaining power 5) Increasing contribution<br />
from value brands (like Integriti, Lawman Pg3) and low margin products (like shirts,<br />
T-shirts) could moderate margins; cash reserves held by the company yields lower<br />
returns. 6) Merchandise obsolescence risks due to rapidly evolving fashion trends and<br />
changing customer preferences<br />
Table 1: KKCL’s key financial indicators (Consolidated)<br />
FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E<br />
Operating Income (Rs. crore) 175.9 236.5 315.5 399.5 485.9<br />
EBITDA Margin (%) 27.3% 29.1% 25.6% 25.1% 24.6%<br />
PAT Margin (%) 18.5% 19.6% 17.3% 16.7% 16.2%<br />
EPS (Rs.) 26.4 37.5 44.2 54.1 63.8<br />
EPS Growth (%) 101.6% 43.3% 17.4% 24.2% 19.2%<br />
P/E (x) 26.5 18.7 15.9 12.9 11.0<br />
P/BV (x) 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.3 2.8<br />
RoE 19.9% 24.8% 25.6% 27.1% 27.5%<br />
RoCE 28.2% 36.6% 38.1% 40.2% 40.9%<br />
EV/EBITDA 16.6 11.2 9.4 7.5 6.2<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Online Grading Matrix<br />
Valuation Assessment<br />
A B C D E<br />
5<br />
4 4C<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
• Fundamental Grading of ‘4/5’ indicates “Strong<br />
Fundamentals”<br />
• Valuation Grading of ‘C’ indicates “Fairly Valued”<br />
on a relative basis<br />
Key Stock Statistics<br />
Bloomberg Code<br />
KEKC IN<br />
Equity<br />
Current Market Price* (Rs.) 700.0<br />
Shares Outstanding (crore) 1.2<br />
Market Cap (Rs. crore) 862.8<br />
52-Week High (Rs.) 875.0<br />
52-Week Low (Rs.) 426.5<br />
Free Float (%) 25.9%<br />
Beta 0.7<br />
6 Month Avg Daily Volumes (Rs Cr) 0.3<br />
Source: Bloomberg, as on 30th December, 2011<br />
KKCL Industries: Current Valuations<br />
30.0<br />
25.0<br />
20.0<br />
15.0<br />
10.0<br />
5.0<br />
-<br />
26.5<br />
16.6<br />
18.7<br />
11.2<br />
15.9<br />
Shareholding Pattern (30 th September, 2011)<br />
9.4<br />
Share Price Movement (18 months)<br />
12.9<br />
11.0<br />
7.5 6.2<br />
FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e<br />
DIIs<br />
4%<br />
FIIs<br />
12%<br />
Price/Earnings<br />
Others<br />
10%<br />
EV/EBITDA<br />
Source: Bloomberg, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
Promoters<br />
74%<br />
1
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
INVESTMENT SUMMARY<br />
Strong domestic consumption play with Pan-India presence and negligible dependence on exports<br />
East<br />
29%<br />
South<br />
24%<br />
Export<br />
3%<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
North<br />
15%<br />
West<br />
29%<br />
Rising disposable incomes, rapid urbanisation, increasing<br />
organized retail penetration and changing spending<br />
trends are expected to result in branded apparels market<br />
reach ~Rs. 700 billion by 2015 (implying 28% CAGR).<br />
KKCL is strongly positioned to benefit from the domestic<br />
consumption boom due to its pan-India franchise and<br />
distribution through a wide network of multi-brand<br />
outlets across the country. Besides, KKCL enjoys the firstmover’s<br />
advantage in the Tier-II / Tier-III cities and<br />
under-penetrated eastern states, which are expected to<br />
remain the growth engines over the medium term.<br />
Diversified brand portfolio, Strong homegrown brands nurtured over decades; presence across product<br />
spectrum and price points<br />
KKCL has a mature portfolio of well-established fashion<br />
brands like ‘Killer’, ‘Lawman Pg3’ and ‘Integriti’ that have<br />
survived across economic cycles and successfully evolved<br />
with changing customer preferences over last two<br />
decades. KKCL’s flagship ‘Killer’ brand enjoys strong<br />
brand equity and is amongst the few homegrown denim<br />
brands that have survived the competitive pressures<br />
emanating from the entry of leading global brands. As per<br />
recent IMRB research report, Killer brand has been<br />
slotted amongst the Top 5 denim brands in the country.<br />
Shirts<br />
20%<br />
Trousers<br />
15%<br />
T-Shirts<br />
4%<br />
Others<br />
4%<br />
Jeans<br />
57%<br />
Easies<br />
2%<br />
Integriti<br />
25%<br />
Lawman<br />
21%<br />
Others<br />
1%<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
Killer is positioned mainly to cater to premium and designer wear (mainly denim jeans category), Lawman Pg3 is<br />
positioned as trendy fashion for mid-premium clubwear (across products like jeans, trousers, shirts, t-shirts, jackets),<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
Killer<br />
51%<br />
Integriti is positioned as value or mass market brand<br />
(across product range) for the price conscious consumer,<br />
Easies is positioned as formal and semi-formal wear<br />
(mainly trousers and shirts) and ADDICTIONS is<br />
positioned as a dedicated lifestyle accessories brand<br />
(across products like shoes, belts, watches, bracelets,<br />
wallets, caps, bags, sunglasses and deodorants). Overall,<br />
KKCL’s brands are positioned across product spectrum<br />
and price points to garner mind-wallet share of aspiring<br />
young population and burgeoning middle and uppermiddle<br />
class in India.<br />
2
<strong>Kewal</strong><br />
<strong>Kiran</strong><br />
Zodiac<br />
<strong>Clothing</strong><br />
Provogue<br />
Arvind<br />
Lifestyle<br />
Brands<br />
Arvind<br />
Retail<br />
Raymond<br />
Apparel<br />
Colorplus<br />
Fashions<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong><br />
<strong>Kiran</strong><br />
Zodiac<br />
<strong>Clothing</strong><br />
Provogue<br />
Arvind<br />
Lifestyle<br />
Brands<br />
Arvind<br />
Retail<br />
Raymond<br />
Apparel<br />
Colorplus<br />
Fashions<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
Industry leading profitability indicators due to careful expansion and efficient working capital management<br />
Unlike some domestic brand apparel manufacturers and large retailers, KKCL has restrained from acquiring market<br />
shares by sacrificing near term profitability. Also, KKCL has maintained a relatively modest presence in intensely<br />
competitive metro markets as high lease rentals and operating expenses could constrain profitability of its<br />
franchisees. The company has also limited its dependence on national chain stores that enjoy higher bargaining power<br />
and squeeze profit margins from the apparel manufacturers. Besides, the company has maintained low focus on the<br />
exports market, since it may not command the same premium and margins as the domestic markets. All these factors<br />
have combined to contribute a healthy profitability for KKCL.<br />
KKCL’s brands are predominantly targeted towards mid-premium and value segments; the strategy has paid rich<br />
dividends on account of down-trading by customers from the premium / ultra-premium catergories due to the twin<br />
impact of high inflation and slower economic / per-capita income growth rates over the last few years. The company<br />
has also demonstrated adequate flexibility in passing on the input cost escalations (cotton prices, fuel prices & labour<br />
costs) relative to its peers in the value / economy segments.<br />
KKCL derives majority of its revenues from denim jeans category that normally enjoy better margins due to higher<br />
scope for designing and value-addition relative to casuals, shirts & trousers categories. The company has introduced<br />
its own brands and nurtured them over the years to save royalty payments, which range around 3 to 5% for some<br />
foreign brands leased by of its domestic competitors. Besides, KKCL’s brands are well established and focused only on<br />
mid-premium to value segments, thereby resulting in relatively moderate advertising requirements (~4-5% of<br />
revenues).<br />
35%<br />
30%<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
Branded Apparel Industry: EBITDA Margins<br />
29%<br />
12%<br />
11%<br />
9%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
12%<br />
40%<br />
35%<br />
30%<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
Branded Apparel Industry : RoCE (%)<br />
37%<br />
20%<br />
13%<br />
12%<br />
9%<br />
7%<br />
17%<br />
Source: Company Filings, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
KKCL has made continuous investments in advertising/innovations to increase brand recall and create a ‘customer<br />
pull effect’ rather than pushing its products aggressively through the distribution channel. Since the company follows<br />
an outright sale model instead of consignment model; it has been able to efficiently manage its inventory levels, avoid<br />
major markdowns / write-offs in case of obsolete inventories and hence optimizes operating margins for the<br />
company. Besides, the company has low cost assets (estimated market value of manufacturing facilities, corporate<br />
office and company owned stores significantly exceeds book value of ~Rs. 43 crore) and strong balance sheet (~Rs.<br />
115 crore net cash and investments); resulting in low depreciation / interest costs and high non-operating incomes.<br />
The working capital intensity too is favourable compared to its peers with strict control on receivables, while<br />
inventory risk is partly mitigated by production against confirmed orders from its franchisees. Moreover, the<br />
company mainly outsources production (> 55% outsourced) and distribution (~90% exclusive brand outlets are<br />
franchisee owned) to reduce the fixed capital investments and uses outright sale model to reduce the working capital<br />
requirements; thereby ensuring industry leading return indicators for the company.<br />
3
Jul-10<br />
Aug-10<br />
Sep-10<br />
Oct-10<br />
Nov-10<br />
Dec-10<br />
Jan-11<br />
Feb-11<br />
Mar-11<br />
Apr-11<br />
May-11<br />
Jun-11<br />
Jul-11<br />
Aug-11<br />
Sep-11<br />
Oct-11<br />
Nov-11<br />
Dec-11<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
On the other side, merchandize obsolescence risks remain high in fashion industry; intense competition and<br />
dependence on MBOs and National Chain Stores reduces margin for error<br />
The company operates in rapidly evolving fashion industry, where it competes with large number of domestic as well<br />
as global brands. Hence, failure to keep abreast with the latest fashion trends and changing customer preferences<br />
Factory<br />
Outlet<br />
3%<br />
National<br />
Chain<br />
Stores<br />
9%<br />
MBO<br />
60%<br />
Exports<br />
3%<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
K-Lounge<br />
25%<br />
could result in obsolete inventories and affect the<br />
competitiveness / brand equity of the company. Besides,<br />
high dependence on MBOs and National Chain Stores<br />
reduces the margin for error, as these third party retailers<br />
stock products of all competing brands and are inclined<br />
towards the latest fashion products providing higher<br />
inventory turns and better margins. However, the<br />
company has been able to demonstrate efficient inventory<br />
management so far by regular monitoring of<br />
inventory/products with its franchisses to take swift<br />
corrective actions wherever necessary.<br />
Profitability indicators remain vulnerable to cotton price fluctuations and regulatory changes<br />
KKCL, being a garments manufacturer, remains vulnerable to<br />
steep fluctuations in cotton prices. Raw cotton prices for the<br />
Domestic Cotton Prices (Sankar 6;<br />
Sankar-6 variety had increased from ~30,000 Rs/candy (1 70,000<br />
Rs/Candy)<br />
candy = 355 kg) in July 2010 to ~62,000 Rs/candy (1 candy = 60,000<br />
355 kg) in March 2011 on account of demand revival in 50,000<br />
developed economies and production disruptions due to 40,000<br />
adverse agro-climatic conditions in China and Pakistan. The 30,000<br />
steep rise in cotton prices had resulted in high cost inventories 20,000<br />
and hence constrained volume growth as well as operating<br />
10,000<br />
margins across the value chain until the Q3, FY12. However, the<br />
0<br />
raw cotton prices have corrected significantly over the last 6-8<br />
months to ~35,000 Rs/candy in Nov 2011 on account of<br />
deterioration in global demand outlook and strong productions<br />
Source: EmergingTextiles.com<br />
estimates for the 2011-12 cotton season globally. As the high<br />
cost inventory gets liquidated, the company is expected to benefit from lower cotton prices in the coming quarters.<br />
The company also remains vulnerable to regulatory changes like the 10% excise duty levied on all branded apparel<br />
during the last union budget, leading to a cascading effect across the value chain. After a representation from the<br />
industry participants, the government agreed to a partial rollback, imposing the duty on 45% as against the earlier<br />
60% of the MRP. The excise duty hike complicated matters at the time when the industry was already grappling with<br />
severe cost inflation and higher raw material (cotton, polyester, etc) prices. Besides, the organized retail industry in<br />
India continues to suffer due to stringent labour laws, multiple licences and clearances (40-45 approvals) required for<br />
setting up and operating a retail stores, high stamp duties on property deals and exceptionally high property prices<br />
and lease rentals in cities due to, among other things, urban land ceiling act and delays in new project approvals.<br />
Although the proposed goods and services tax (GST) is expected to reduce complexities in doing business and<br />
allowing foreign direct investments (FDI) in multi-brand retail is expected to improve efficiencies across the supply<br />
chain and give a boost to KKCL’s MBO & national chain store sales, the timelines for their implementation continue to<br />
remain uncertain.<br />
4
FY11a<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
Return indicator (%)<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
Strong revenue growth expected in-line with the branded apparel industry; increasing contribution from value<br />
brands and low margin products could moderate margins<br />
50.0%<br />
45.0%<br />
40.0%<br />
35.0%<br />
30.0%<br />
25.0%<br />
20.0%<br />
15.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
5.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
43%<br />
42%<br />
34% 33%<br />
17%<br />
18%<br />
27%<br />
24%<br />
23%<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
22%<br />
19%<br />
18%<br />
FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e<br />
Sales Growth EBITDA Growth EPS Growth<br />
We expect the company to report 27% CAGR growth in<br />
gross sales over the next three years, in-line with the<br />
industry growth rates for branded apparels in India.<br />
However, increasing contribution from value and mass<br />
market brands like Lawman Pg3 and Integriti (which have<br />
~3.0 times and ~2.8x MRP to prime cost ratio respectively<br />
as compared to ~3.5 times for Killer brand) and lower<br />
margin products like trouser, shirts and T-shirts (due to<br />
lower scope for designing and value-addition) are<br />
expected to moderate margins and result in 20% CAGR<br />
EBITDA growth going forward. Finally, relatively low<br />
depreciation and interest costs on account of asset light<br />
business model, is expected to result in a healthy ~19%<br />
CAGR EPS growth over the FY11-FY14e period.<br />
However, asset light business model of expansion through franchise and third party distribution route are<br />
expected to ensure robust profitability indicators and strong capital structure<br />
The company had changed its business strategy in favour of an asset light model post 2008, when the lease rentals<br />
reached peak levels and threatened the business viability of a large number of retailers. Instead of expanding through<br />
own retail stores, KKCL’s management focussed on expanding through the franchisee and third party distribution<br />
route, thereby lowering operational costs (overhead costs) and capex requirements. Besides, the company opted for<br />
an outright sales model instead of consignment model and maintained tight control on receivables as well as<br />
inventory levels. This strategy of positioning itself as a “fashion brand” rather than a “fashion retailer” has paid rich<br />
dividends and helped the company build a business model with established brand equity, well penetrated distribution<br />
network, healthy profitability indicators and robust capital structure. We expect the company to retain and strengthen<br />
its asset light model with focus on branding and product innovations, supported by increasing outsourcing of<br />
production and franchise lead distribution.<br />
Exhibit 1: KKCL’s store details (September 2011)<br />
KKCL's Profitability Indicators & Gearing<br />
Store type COCO COMFO FOFO Total<br />
K-Lounge 1 11 113 125<br />
Killer EBO 3 45 48<br />
LawmanPg3-EBO 4 3 7<br />
Integriti-EBO 32 32<br />
Addiction-EBO 5 4<br />
Factory Outlet 7 7<br />
Total 1 25 198 223<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
37% 38% 40% 41%<br />
29%<br />
26% 25% 25%<br />
Source: Company<br />
COCO: Company-owned company-operated<br />
COMFO: Company-owned management franchisee-operated<br />
FOFO: Franchisee-owned franchisee-operated<br />
EBITDA Margin<br />
ROCE<br />
Total Debt/(Equity + MI)<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
o<br />
u<br />
5 r<br />
c<br />
e<br />
:<br />
S
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
As shown in the exhibit above, the company currently has 1:8 ratio of company-owned: franchise owned K-Lounge<br />
stores and exclusive brand outlets (EBOs). Going forward, we expect the company to maintain such ratio and add over<br />
50 exclusive stores in each of the next three years. Besides, the company currently outsources ~55% of production to<br />
unorganized third party garment manufactures to reduce capital expenditure, labour costs and concentrate on its core<br />
areas of designing and brand building. Overall, we expect the management to continue to focus on profitable growth<br />
along with a careful store expansion, which will ensure strong return indicators (over 40% returns on capital<br />
employed) and financial profile (below 0.1x debt to equity) for the company going forward.<br />
Premium valuations justified considering the strong market positioning and balance sheet strengths<br />
KKCL’s current valuation multiple (~12.9x times FY13 earnings) is at a premium to broader market indices like Nifty<br />
Index, CNX 500 index or CNX Midcap index. However, KKCL continues to be one of the most reasonably valued<br />
domestic consumption plays with strong established brand, wide distribution reach and strong balance sheet. Overall,<br />
we expect the company to report a healthy 27% CAGR revenue growth and 19% CAGR EPS growth over the FY11a-<br />
FY14e period, aided by rapid expansions in Tier – II and Tier – III cities. Hence, we assign a valuation grade of “C” to<br />
KKCL on a grading scale of ‘A’ to ‘E’, which indicates that the company is “Fairly Valued” on a relative basis.<br />
Exhibit 2: KKCL’S Relative Valuations<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Estimates<br />
KEWAL KIRAN<br />
CLOTHING<br />
NIFTY<br />
INDEX<br />
CNX 500<br />
INDEX<br />
CNX MIDCAP<br />
INDEX<br />
FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E<br />
Price/Earnings 15.85 12.93 13.19 11.29 12.38 10.31 10.63 8.79<br />
EV/EBITDA 9.45 7.53 9.25 8.11 9.13 7.69 9.39 7.44<br />
Price /Sales 2.73 2.16 1.45 1.33 1.15 1.04 0.67 0.61<br />
Price /Book Value 3.79 3.26 2.03 1.78 1.78 1.56 1.21 1.09<br />
Price/Cash Flow 14.06 11.46 9.46 8.15 8.93 7.42 8.17 6.34<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Estimates<br />
KEWAL KIRAN<br />
CLOTHING<br />
PANTALOON<br />
RETAIL<br />
SHOPPERS<br />
STOP<br />
TRENT<br />
ARVIND<br />
PROVOGUE<br />
(INDIA)<br />
FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13<br />
Price/Earnings 15.85 12.93 13.72 10.25 36.49 23.53 n.m. 35.29 6.75 5.27 6.37 5.20<br />
EV/EBITDA 9.45 7.53 9.66 8.26 17.01 12.14 146.01 14.70 6.14 5.54 9.42 8.14<br />
Price /Sales 2.73 2.16 0.21 0.18 0.73 0.59 0.89 0.63 0.38 0.34 0.37 0.34<br />
Price /Book Value 3.79 3.26 0.84 0.78 3.82 3.40 1.99 2.24 0.75 0.66 0.43 0.40<br />
Price/Cash Flow 14.06 11.46 6.30 5.13 19.92 14.35 57.93 19.81 3.45 2.90 5.34 4.59<br />
Source: Bloomberg, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service * Bloomberg Consensus Estimates as on 30 th December, 2011<br />
6
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
OPERATING PROFILE<br />
Strong brands built over the years through product designing / innovations rather than competing on price<br />
points; presence in mid-premium / value segments have paid rich dividends due to down-trading by customers<br />
Over the years, the company has built and nourished strong brands through focus on the product innovations and<br />
designs to create a brand identity, rather competing on price points. For example, it has always positioned “Killer” as<br />
an upmarket/international brand by associating with foreign models for the advertisement campaigns. The exclusive<br />
brand outlets (EBOs) are aesthetically designed to maintain consistency with the advertising campaigns and resonate<br />
with the brand appeal. The company has stayed away from advertising on price points, thereby helping it to absorb<br />
cost escalation and report margins better than the competition. Also, KKCL’s brands are predominantly targeted<br />
towards mid-premium and value segments, which has paid rich dividends due to the down-trading of customers from<br />
the premium / ultra-premium catergories due to the twin impacts of high inflation and slower economic / per-capita<br />
income growth rates over the last few years.<br />
Exhibit 3: KKCL’s Brand Portfolio<br />
Brand<br />
Launch<br />
Year<br />
Positioning<br />
Average<br />
MRP in Rs<br />
Average<br />
Denim<br />
MRP in Rs<br />
Competition<br />
FY11<br />
Revenues<br />
(Rs. Cr.)<br />
Revenues<br />
% Share<br />
Killer 1989<br />
Mid-Premium<br />
to Premium<br />
~1,650 1,800<br />
Lee, Levi’s, Wrangler,<br />
UCB, Pepe Jeans<br />
120.6 51%<br />
Lawman Pg3 1998 Mid Premium ~1,500 1,500<br />
Mufti, Trigger, Spykar,<br />
Flying Machine, Bare<br />
49.2 21%<br />
Integriti 2002<br />
Easies 1989<br />
Value<br />
to mid-premium<br />
Value<br />
to mid-premium<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
~1,150 1,200<br />
~1,550<br />
Not<br />
Applicable<br />
Denizen, Indigo Nation,<br />
John Players, Peter England<br />
John Players,<br />
Austin Reed,<br />
Indian Terrain<br />
32.4 25%<br />
5.9 2%<br />
Killer: It was launched in 1989 and is KKCL’s flagship brand positioned as a global Indian brand conveying the trendy,<br />
vibrant and youthful look with an attitude. With average MRP at around Rs, 1,800 per piece, it is focused towards the<br />
mid-premium to premium denim segment for 16-30 years age group. Throughout its brand history, it has focused on<br />
continuous innovation in style, design and product supported by adequate advertising campaign conveying the above<br />
features and creating imagery in sync with an international brand. This has enabled it to compete well with the large<br />
number of international denim players that have entered Indian markets. It is distributed through MBOs, EBOs, both<br />
“K-Lounge” as well as exclusive “Killer” stores and national chain stores like ‘Shoppers Stop’ and ‘Lifestyle’.<br />
Product portfolio: It includes ready-to-wear jeans, trousers, cargos, capris, shirts, jackets, t-shirts, innerwear (vests<br />
and briefs), footwear (shoes, socks). It also has eye-wear and other accessories (belts, bracelets etc) in its portfolio. To<br />
target the growing women-wear denim segment, the 'Killer for her' range was launched in 2007.<br />
Lawman Pg3: The brand was launched in 1998 and targets the 18-30 years age group in the mid-premium segment<br />
with average MRP for denim jeans at around Rs. 1,500. For Lawman, the company has focused on creating a theme<br />
each season under which the designers add different textures, cuts, drapes, washes and feel to the product. The<br />
company holds three patents under the “Lawman” brand - for introducing the ‘Yi-Fi’ stitch, Vertebrae collection<br />
(where it has patented the ‘wash and stitch’) and “Emboss” (which was another stitch related improvement). It is<br />
distributed through MBOs, EBOs, both “K-Lounge” as well as exclusive “Killer” stores and national chain stores like<br />
‘Westside’ and ‘Central’.<br />
7
Zodiac<br />
<strong>Clothing</strong><br />
Raymond<br />
Apparel<br />
Arvind<br />
Lifestyle<br />
Provogue<br />
Colorplus<br />
Fashions<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong><br />
<strong>Kiran</strong><br />
Arvind<br />
Retail<br />
Page<br />
Industries<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
Product portfolio: The LawmanPg3 apparel range has shirts, blazers, jackets, denim and cotton trousers, tee-shirts,<br />
cargos, capris, drapes, jeggings, skirts and shorts. It accessories collection includes innerwear, socks, footwear,<br />
headwear, sunglasses, deodorants and trinkets.<br />
Integriti: The brand was launched in 2002 mainly to counter completion from unorganised players as well as other<br />
domestic players competing through low price points. Integriti is aimed at the price conscious value segment with<br />
average MRP at around Rs. 1,150 for its products. Being a value brand, majority (~70%) of its sales are in Tier-II and<br />
Tier-III cities mainly through the MBOs, balance through EBOs and a small proportion through national chain stores.<br />
Product portfolio: The product range under the brand includes casuals and formal shirts, T-shirts, Jeans and cotton<br />
trousers. A sub-brand “Integriti Galz” was also launched to cater to women-wear category.<br />
Thrust on enhancing brand equity, designing latest fashions and introducing innovative product; lower focus on<br />
in-house production to reduce fixed overheads and avoid labour issues<br />
Over the years the company has steadily reduced its focus on manufacturing. In FY10, the company produced 76% of<br />
the garments in-house and rest were outsourced to vendors located in Bangalore and Mumbai. In FY11, the in-house<br />
to outsourced manufacturing ratio was 53:47, which is further expected to tilt in favour of outsourcing in FY12.<br />
Garmenting is a labour intensive business – high labour costs coupled with the rigid labour laws has resulted in weak<br />
competitive positioning for Indian garment manufacturers. Overall, as the management plans to stay focused on<br />
higher value added activities like brand building and product design, significance of activities like manufacturing are<br />
expected to reduce.<br />
Continuous investments in advertising/marketing over the years to nurture brand image; however advertising<br />
costs remain moderate due to established brands and exposure to mid-premium / value segments<br />
15.0%<br />
12.8%<br />
12.0%<br />
9.0%<br />
8.3%<br />
7.0% 7.3% 6.6%<br />
6.0%<br />
3.0%<br />
4.7% 4.1%<br />
2.5%<br />
0.0%<br />
Source: Annual Reports, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
Since it takes decades to nurture superior brands (for<br />
example Levis, Diesel, Tommy Hilfiger, etc), KKCL has<br />
made continuous investments in advertising/marketing to<br />
increase brand recall and pull customers rather pushing<br />
its brand across various channels of distribution. In<br />
addition to print media, the company also attempts to<br />
reach out to target audiences through contemporary<br />
forms of advertising such as in-film placements and<br />
cricket sponsorships (like Pune Warriors in Indian<br />
Premium League, IPL). The company is currently running<br />
a television advertisement campaign for its “Killer”<br />
deodorant. However, since the company has well<br />
established brands focused on mid-premium to value<br />
segments, overall advertising spend for the company has<br />
remained near the industry average (~4-5% of revenues).<br />
Effective distribution strategy through exclusive franchisees and multi-brand outlets ensures wider penetration;<br />
outright sale model ensures efficient inventory management<br />
The company has carved out an effective distribution strategy wherein it has a mix of Exclusive Brand outlets – EBOs<br />
(own as well as franchisees), Multi-brand outlets - MBOs and sales through National Chain Stores (organized retailers)<br />
to maintain an optimum balance between growth rate / penetration levels and profitability margins.<br />
8
FY09<br />
FY10<br />
FY11<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
FY09<br />
FY10<br />
FY11<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
The aesthetically designed EBOs for its “Killer”, “Lawman Pg3” and “Integriti” brands and complete brand portfolio<br />
under “K-Lounge” stores helps builds brand image and visibility for the company. The company also has considerable<br />
presence through national chain stores such as Shoppers’ Stop that have high footfalls and provide a vital channel for<br />
swiftly building up brand awareness. On the other hand, distribution through multi-brand outlets (MBOs) enables the<br />
company to expand its distribution network wide across the country and deep into Tier-III and Tier-IV towns.<br />
The management has cautiously limited its dependence on national chain stores that enjoy higher bargaining power<br />
and squeeze profit margins for the apparel manufacturers. Even for the exclusive brand outlets, the company mainly<br />
uses franchisee route to reduce capital investments (fixed assets as well as inventories) and concentrate on its core<br />
strengths of designing and brand building. However, careful screening of the franchisees owners in terms of relevant<br />
industry experience and business acumen has helped the company to maintain services standards and brand equity.<br />
Since the management follows an outright sale model instead of a consignment model, for its franchisees as well as<br />
distributors, the company has been able to efficiently manage its inventory levels and hence report better the<br />
operating margins. Again, the management has consciously maintained low focus on the exports market, since the<br />
company may not command the same premium as domestic markets where it has high brand equity. The lower<br />
exports dependence has also shielded the company from near term global economic uncertainties and currency<br />
fluctuations.<br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
KKCL : Distribution-wise revenue Break-up<br />
5% 8% 9% 10% 12% 13%<br />
58% 58% 60% 58% 56% 54%<br />
28% 27% 25% 26% 27% 27%<br />
Exports<br />
Factory Outlet<br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
KKCL : Geographic revenue break-up<br />
22% 25% 29% 31% 32% 33%<br />
National Chain<br />
60% 26% 25% 24% 22% 22% 21%<br />
Stores<br />
40%<br />
MBO<br />
34% 32% 29% 27% 27% 26%<br />
20%<br />
K Lounge 14% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17%<br />
0%<br />
Export<br />
East<br />
South<br />
West<br />
North<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
Geographically well diversified sales mix; thrust on under-penetrated Eastern region likely to continue<br />
KKCL has a well diversified geographic sales mix, mainly owing to its wide distribution network spanning the length<br />
and breadth of the country. The company is based out of Mumbai and has traditionally had a strong presence in the<br />
Western region and Southern states of the country. However, the Eastern region has emerged as a strong growth<br />
driver for the company in recent periods due to increasing brand recognition, rapid distribution expansion and low<br />
penetration of branded apparels and fashion products in these markets.<br />
However, the company has relatively modest presence and market share in the otherwise lucrative Northern region<br />
due to intense competition, unfavourable credit terms demanded by the distributors and lack of winter-wear products<br />
in its portfolio. Nevertheless, the company has revamped its distribution set-up in the region to focus on growth<br />
through exclusive stores and introduced a wide range of winter-wear merchandises (like jackets and woollen wears)<br />
to cater to the northern region. The above strategies seem to have already started to pay off, as evident through ~43%<br />
revenue growth in the region in FY11.<br />
9
FY09<br />
FY10<br />
FY11<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
FY09<br />
FY10<br />
FY11<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
Dependence on flagship “Killer” brand to reduce with strong growth from value brands as well as recently<br />
launched lifestyle accessories brand ‘ADDICTIONS’<br />
KKCL is an established player in the domestic denim jeans market through its flagship “Killer” brand, which has been<br />
consistently contributing over 50% of KKCL’s revenues in the past. The mid-premium brand continues to be slotted<br />
amongst the Top-5 denim brands in the country, enjoys strong brand equity and is amongst the few homegrown<br />
denim brands that have survived the competitive pressures emanating from the entry of leading global brands.<br />
However, the Killer brand did not cater to the mass value-conscious segment constituting the largest consumer base<br />
in the domestic market. As a result, the company introduced “Lawman Pg3” and “Integriti” cater to “mid-premium”<br />
and “Value” segments respectively and garner its fair market share in the value market segment. These brands have<br />
exhibited robust growth rates over the last few years due to customer down-trading due to high primary articles<br />
inflations and impact of uncertain economic conditions. We expect these brands to continue to grow at a faster CAGR<br />
going forward due to increasing acceptance / brand awareness for these brands. Besides, the recently launched<br />
lifestyle accessories brand “ADDICTIONS” too is expected to start contributing meaningfully in the top-line growth of<br />
the company going forward. Overall, we expect the revenue contribution from ‘Killer’ brand to reduce from ~51% in<br />
FY11 to ~45% in FY14 and thereby reducing the brand concentration of the company over the next three years.<br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
KKCL : Brand-wise revenue break-up<br />
Addictions<br />
22% 23% 25% 23% 23% 23% Integriti<br />
21% 22% 21% 20% 21% 21% Easies<br />
52% 52% 51% 47% 46% 45%<br />
Lawman<br />
Killer<br />
KKCL : Product-wise revenue contributions<br />
100%<br />
Others<br />
80% 19% 21% 20% 22% 23% 24% T-Shirts<br />
60% 19% 17% 15% 12% 11% 10%<br />
Shirts<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
53% 55% 57% 54% 53% 52% Trousers<br />
0%<br />
Jeans<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
Presence across product spectrum and price points; dependence on jeans category to reduce with increasing<br />
contribution from Shirts, T-shirts, Winter-wears and lifestyle accessories<br />
“Killer” is positioned mainly to cater to mid-premium to premium and designer wears (mainly denim jeans category),<br />
“Lawman Pg3” is positioned as trendy fashion for mid-premium clubwears (across products like jeans, trousers,<br />
shirts, t-shirts, jackets), “Integriti” is positioned as value or mass market brand (across product range) for the price<br />
conscious consumer, “Easies” is positioned as formal and semi-formal wear (mainly trousers and shirts) and<br />
“ADDICTIONS” is positioned as a dedicated lifestyle accessories brand (across products like shoes, belts, watches,<br />
bracelets, wallets, caps, bags, sunglasses and deodorants). Overall, KKCL’s brands are positioned across product<br />
spectrum and price points to garner mind-wallet share of aspiring young population and burgeoning middle and<br />
upper-middle class in India.<br />
Traditionally, KKCL has been strongly associated with the denim jeans category that contributed over 55% of the<br />
overall revenues of the company. However, the company has introduced large number of products and brand<br />
extension across categories like women’s wears, winter-wears, shirts, t-shirts, trousers and lifestyle accessories. As a<br />
result, we expect the contribution of jeans category to decline from ~57% in FY11 to ~52% in FY14.<br />
10
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
Industry leading profitability indicators due to careful expansion and efficient working capital management<br />
KKCL enjoys the highest operating margins among the industry peers attributable to its focus on profitable growth.<br />
Additionally, since the company operates on an outright sales model for majority of its sales, it does not have to<br />
provide for inventory markdowns in its books as compared to the industry players aiding operating profitability. The<br />
working capital intensity too is favourable compared to its peers with strict control on receivables while inventory<br />
risk is partly mitigated by production against confirmed orders. Besides, the company continues to enjoy high net<br />
margins as its depreciation & interest costs are among the lowest in the industry, while the return indicators benefit<br />
from the franchisee model requiring lower capital investments.<br />
Exhibit 4: Industry Comparison<br />
Brands<br />
Brand<br />
ownership<br />
Category<br />
Domestic-<br />
Export mix<br />
Distribution<br />
Manufacturing<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> Zodiac Provogue<br />
Killer, Lawman<br />
Pg 3,Integriti<br />
Owned<br />
Present across<br />
premium, midpremium<br />
and<br />
value segments<br />
for casual wear<br />
Domestic<br />
~95%, balance<br />
5% exports<br />
Mainly through<br />
MBOs and<br />
exclusive<br />
franchisees<br />
53% in-house,<br />
balance 47%<br />
outsourced<br />
Zodiac, Z3 and<br />
ZOD!<br />
Licensed from<br />
its group<br />
company<br />
Premium<br />
segment across<br />
formal wear,<br />
party and<br />
relaxed casual<br />
wear<br />
60% Exports<br />
and balance<br />
40% domestic<br />
Through MBOs,<br />
company leased<br />
stores and<br />
national chain<br />
stores<br />
In-house<br />
Provogue<br />
Owned<br />
Mid-premium<br />
to premium<br />
segment for<br />
casual, party<br />
and formal<br />
wear<br />
44% Exports<br />
and balance<br />
56% domestic<br />
sales<br />
Through<br />
exclusive<br />
outlets and<br />
national chain<br />
stores<br />
60% in-house,<br />
balance<br />
outsourced<br />
Arvind<br />
Lifestyle<br />
Brands<br />
<strong>Limited</strong><br />
Flying Machine,<br />
Arrow, US Polo<br />
Assn., IZOD,<br />
Energee, Gant<br />
Except Flying<br />
Machine others<br />
are licensed<br />
Premium to<br />
super-premium<br />
segment for<br />
casual wear,<br />
semi-formal<br />
and formal<br />
wear<br />
Majority<br />
domestic sales<br />
Own retail<br />
stores, MBOs as<br />
well as National<br />
chain stores<br />
Arvind Retail<br />
Excalibur,<br />
Cherokee,<br />
Mix of owned<br />
and licensed<br />
Value segment<br />
across casual<br />
wear, formal<br />
wear and semiformal<br />
wear<br />
Majority<br />
domestic sales<br />
Distribution<br />
through own<br />
retail<br />
Raymond<br />
Apparel<br />
Raymond, Park<br />
Avenue and<br />
Parx<br />
Owned<br />
Premium<br />
segment for<br />
casual and<br />
formal wear<br />
Majority<br />
domestic sales<br />
Through<br />
wholesalers,<br />
MBOs, national<br />
chain stores<br />
and exclusive<br />
stores<br />
Colorplus<br />
Fashions<br />
Colorplus<br />
Owned<br />
Premium<br />
segment for<br />
casual wear<br />
Majority<br />
domestic sales<br />
Through<br />
wholesalers,<br />
MBOs, national<br />
chain stores<br />
and exclusive<br />
stores<br />
Not available Not available Not available Not available<br />
FY11 (Rs Cr) FY11 (Rs Cr) FY11 (Rs Cr) FY11 (Rs Cr) FY11 (Rs Cr) FY11 (Rs Cr) FY11 (Rs Cr)<br />
Net Sales 236.5 356.3 561.3 415.8 374.6 471.3 172.2<br />
EBITDA 68.9 38.3 69.9 38.2 20.1 48.6 20.5<br />
PAT 46.2 33.2 33.5 10.2 -0.2 22.6 10.4<br />
Sales growth 34% 8% 26% 64% 32% 8% 5%<br />
PAT growth 42% 26% 9% 387% n.m.* 99% n.m.*<br />
EBITDA (%) 29% 11% 12% 9% 5% 10% 12%<br />
PAT (%) 20% 9% 6% 2% 0% 5% 6%<br />
ROCE 37% 20% 7% 13% 9% 12% 17%<br />
RONW 25% 17% 5% 7% 0% 22% 14%<br />
Gearing 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.1<br />
Debtor days 46 37 114 105 5 30 20<br />
Payable days 51 42 47 177 142 70 62<br />
Inventory days 112 127 235 209 164 196 194<br />
Source: Company filings, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
*n.m. stands for ‘not meaningful’<br />
11
Jul-10<br />
Aug-10<br />
Sep-10<br />
Oct-10<br />
Nov-10<br />
Dec-10<br />
Jan-11<br />
Feb-11<br />
Mar-11<br />
Apr-11<br />
May-11<br />
Jun-11<br />
Jul-11<br />
Aug-11<br />
Sep-11<br />
Oct-11<br />
Nov-11<br />
Dec-11<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
Profitability indicators remain vulnerable to cotton price fluctuations; volume/margin pressures likely to ease<br />
from Q4, FY12 onwards when the decline in cotton prices will reflect for the garment retail industry<br />
KKCL, being a leading garments manufacturer, remains<br />
vulnerable to steep fluctuations in cotton prices. Raw cotton<br />
Domestic Cotton Prices (Sankar 6;<br />
prices for the Sankar-6 variety had increased from ~30,000<br />
Rs/Candy)<br />
Rs/candy (1 candy = 355 kg) in July 2010 to ~62,000 70,000<br />
Rs/candy (1 candy = 355 kg) in March 2011 on account of 60,000<br />
demand revival in developed economies and production 50,000<br />
disruptions due to adverse agro-climatic conditions in China<br />
40,000<br />
and Pakistan. The steep rise in cotton prices had resulted in<br />
30,000<br />
high cost inventories and hence constrained volume growth<br />
20,000<br />
as well as operating margins across the value chain until the<br />
10,000<br />
Q3, FY12. However, the raw cotton prices have corrected<br />
0<br />
significantly over the last 6-8 months to ~35,000 Rs/candy<br />
in Dec 2011 on account of deterioration in global demand<br />
outlook and healthy productions estimates for the 2011-12<br />
cotton season globally.<br />
Source: EmergingTextiles.com; <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
Raw material costs accounts for a higher proportion of the<br />
Denim fabric costs due to higher cotton yarn usage than trouser/shirting fabrics. As a result, the denim fabric prices<br />
had risen by approximately 30-40% in the past one year while shirting fabric prices had risen by 20-25% in the same<br />
period. Faced with the twin challenge of rising input costs and excise duty hike, most players had increased their<br />
prices with KKCL increasing it by about 10-12%. Since the production cycle for branded apparel manufacturers<br />
function with a lag of about eight-nine months, the pricier garments produced from high cost fabric inventory will<br />
remain in the retail stores until Q3, FY12. This has led to some volume pressure as witnessed in slowdown in same<br />
store sales during the current season as well as margin pressure as the raw material cost increases could not be<br />
passed on completely. The lower cotton costs will start reflecting for branded apparel industry only from Q4 FY12<br />
onwards, easing pressure on the volumes as well as operating margins of the players across the value chain.<br />
Regulatory changes a risk factor..<br />
The company also remains vulnerable to regulatory changes like the 10% excise duty levied on all branded apparel<br />
during the last union budget, leading to a cascading effect across the value chain. After a representation from the<br />
industry participants, the government agreed to a partial rollback, imposing the duty on 45% as against the earlier<br />
60% of the MRP. The excise duty hike complicated matters at the time when the industry was already grappling with<br />
severe cost inflation and higher raw material (cotton, polyester, etc) prices. Besides, the organized retail industry in<br />
India continues to suffer due to stringent labour laws, multiple licences and clearances (40-45 approvals) required for<br />
setting up and operating a retail stores, high stamp duties on property deals and exceptionally high property prices<br />
and lease rentals in cities due to urban land ceiling act and delays in new project approvals. Although the proposed<br />
goods and services tax (GST) is expected to reduce complexities in doing business and allowing foreign direct<br />
investments (FDI) in multi-brand retail is expected to improve efficiencies across the supply chain and give a boost to<br />
KKCL’s MBO & national chain store sales, the timelines for their implementation continue to remain uncertain.<br />
Free Trade Agreement with Bangladesh likely to result in cost efficiencies for the branded apparel companies<br />
KKCL’s strategy towards outsourcing is expected to receive a thrust after the recent Free Trade Agreement signed<br />
with Bangladesh. Earlier, there was a cap on import of garments from Bangladesh at 10 million pieces, which is now<br />
removed with effect from September, 2011. Though the Bangladeshi garment sector lacks a raw material base, it has<br />
12
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
emerged more cost competitive than even the Chinese manufacturers owing to significant low labour cost costs,<br />
economies of scale, flexible labour laws and subsidies from the Government which makes garmenting cost effective.<br />
The recent free trade agreement is likely to create substantial cost savings for the industry and help the branded<br />
apparel industry to reduce prices after recent inflationary trends witnessed over the past one year. KKCL has also<br />
started making efforts in this direction for exploring the options of outsourcing manufacturing to Bangladesh.<br />
Proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST) could provide further fillip<br />
The implementation of the proposed goods and services tax (GST) can provide further fillip to organized retail growth<br />
by reducing complexities of doing business, improving efficiencies across the supply chain and optimizing the taxation<br />
system of the country. Currently organized retailers pay value added tax (VAT: 5% to 12.5%) which is generally<br />
evaded by the unorganized players. Besides, organized retailers pay service tax (10.3%) on lease rentals which would<br />
be completely setoff once GST is implemented. Again, Inter-state taxes like central sales tax (2%) and local octroi taxes<br />
result in retailers having multiple warehouses to reduce taxes. This results in losses due to wastage, over-investments<br />
and sub-optimal inventories, while investments in high-end warehousing and storage facilities remain restricted. GST<br />
implementation will enable efficient implementation of hub-and-spoke distribution model, help rationalize entire<br />
supply chain, optimize warehousing capacities and reduce storage, handling and transport costs for the organized<br />
retailers. Besides, GST is expected to streamline documentation and reduce multiple tax incidences from central, state<br />
and local government bodies; thereby facilitating uniform retail pricing across the country.<br />
Robust growth expected over the next three years through product/brand extensions and entry into “lifestyle”<br />
products such as bags, headgear, eyewear etc. and personal care segment<br />
The company initially mainly focused on jeans under its flagship brand, “Killer”. However, over the years, it gradually<br />
expanded into other product categories such as trousers, shirts and T-shirts under “Killer” as well as its other brands.<br />
Additionally, most of the sales were of men’s apparels until now, with little focus on women’s wear. With the increase<br />
in number of working women, rising income levels and a cultural shift in favour of western outfits, the women’s<br />
branded apparels market has seen higher growth rates where KKCL has already started tapping the opportunity. We<br />
expect the proportion of sales from women’s apparels to increase in the coming future and drive part of the growth<br />
for the company. Additionally, with rise in disposable incomes, spend on personal care products like deodorants and<br />
lifestyle accessories such as eyewear, sunglasses etc., has received a huge thrust in the past few years. With the<br />
growth the segment has seen increased competition from players such as Provogue and Titan which have launched<br />
their own stores in the past. The company has started retailing such products through its newly launched<br />
“ADDICTIONS” outlets. Currently, the concept is in the initial stage and management expects to give the segment a<br />
push once it is able to gauge the initial market response and demand. We expect “ADDICTIONS” to contribute ~9% of<br />
overall sales by FY14.<br />
Asset light franchisee model leading to low capital requirements and high return on investments<br />
Post FY08, the company had changed its retail distribution model from company owned/leased stores to franchisee<br />
owned/leased stores, where the franchisee bears all capital investments as well as the operational costs, chiefly rental<br />
and overhead costs for the stores. While the company shares considerable margins with its franchisees, distributors<br />
as well as third party manufacturers; the asset light business model facilitates rapid ramp-up in operations without<br />
substantial capital requirements. Besides, substantial outsourced production provides economies of scale while<br />
keeping the company relatively immune to demand slowdowns or labour unrest related issues. Moreover, lower<br />
capital requirements results in robust return indicators (RoCE ~36%) and strong balance sheet position with almost<br />
zero debt and free cash & cash equivalents of ~Rs. 120 crore. Currently the ratio of company owned to franchisee<br />
stores stand at 1:8; going forward we expect the company to maintain such ratio and add about 75 exclusive stores in<br />
each of the next three years ensuring strong free cash flow generation and return indicators.<br />
13
2005<br />
2009<br />
2010e<br />
2015e<br />
2020e<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
Industry Scenario<br />
As per Images Yearbook 2011, the size of the domestic textile and apparel Industry is estimated at Rs. 246,000 crore<br />
with apparels constituting approximately 70% of the market at Rs. 170,900 crore. The apparel segment is expected to<br />
grow at a CAGR of 11% over the next five years to grow to Rs, 288,880 crore. Increasing population with rising<br />
disposable incomes, rapid urbanisation, change in spending attitude and increasing retail penetration into smaller<br />
cities are expected to be crucial growth drivers.<br />
Total Apparel Market (Rs Crore)<br />
470,000<br />
Total Apparel Market (Rs Crore)<br />
11%<br />
101,425<br />
154,000 170,900<br />
288,880<br />
1%<br />
5% 5%<br />
Population<br />
Growth<br />
Increase in<br />
Individual<br />
Consumption<br />
Growth in Unit<br />
Value<br />
Total CAGR<br />
Source: Images Yearbook, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
Percentage of Organized and Unorganized Sectors<br />
in Retail Industry<br />
87% 86% 83% 75%<br />
13% 14% 17% 25%<br />
Source: Images Yearbook, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
2005 2009 2010e 2015e 2020e<br />
Organised<br />
Unorganized<br />
The organised apparel retail sector shall lead the way for<br />
the domestic apparel industry, likely to grow at ~28%<br />
CAGR between 2010 and 2015. Thus the organised<br />
garment retail penetration shall increase to ~25%<br />
(translating to a market of Rs. 72,200 crore) in 2015 from<br />
~16% at present (~Rs. 27,350 crore). This presents ample<br />
room for all organised players to compete and grow while<br />
presenting significant advantage for established industry<br />
players such as KKCL to capture a greater share of the<br />
consumer’s wallet.<br />
KKCL’s target segment between 16-25 age is expected to witness higher than the average 11% growth expected for<br />
the readymade garment industry. This is expected to be fuelled by the growth of services sector especially the new<br />
generation IT and BPOs which is expected to generate higher employment among the youth leading to their greater<br />
consumption. Furthermore, Segment wise, women’s wear and girl’s wear is expected to lead the growth with CAGR of<br />
12% and 11% respectively while menswear and boy’s wear are expected to grow at relatively lower CAGR of 9% and<br />
10% respectively. The increased growth in women’s wear reflects increasing independence among women as a<br />
greater number enters the workforce and changing lifestyle which encourages higher spending among women. In line<br />
with higher expected growth for women’s wear, KKCL too has increased its focus on the segment and is marketing<br />
aggressively through events and advertising focussing on women. Also there is paucity of national brands targeted<br />
exclusively at women and KKCL intends to capture this largely untapped market.<br />
14
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
Currently share of urban market is higher at 55% with greater organised retail penetration than the rural market.<br />
However, the rural market at 45% share remains extremely underserved with huge potential for organised retail to<br />
grow. KKCL is well positioned with respect to the rural market too having its value to mid-premium brand, Integriti<br />
and mid-premium offering, Lawman Pg3 in the portfolio.<br />
Boys<br />
10%<br />
Girls<br />
9%<br />
2009<br />
Mens<br />
43%<br />
Boys<br />
10%<br />
Girls<br />
9%<br />
2015e<br />
Mens<br />
40%<br />
Boys<br />
10%<br />
Girls<br />
10%<br />
2020e<br />
Mens<br />
37%<br />
Women<br />
38%<br />
Women<br />
41%<br />
Women<br />
43%<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
The Indian denim market (CY 2009) is estimated at Rs. 4,600 crore with menswear segment dominating at Rs. 3,900<br />
crore, followed by women-wear at Rs. 415 crore and balance comprised by girls-wear and boys-wear categories. The<br />
menswear market is expected to exhibit a moderate 9% CAGR with the women-wear category to expand at 13%<br />
CAGR. Even though the readymade denim wear market has been on a growth trajectory, the per capita consumption<br />
still lags behind considerably that of large consuming economies. The Indian average is between 2-3 pairs of jeans visa-vis<br />
China at 4 and US with 9, indicating the growth potential of the domestic denim market. A fast growing middle<br />
class and changing income pyramid is further expected to fuel growth. In terms of demanding the latest fashion<br />
trends, the Indian consumer is less dynamic as compared to the more fashion forward western consumers. Currently,<br />
basic denims comprise 50-60% of the denim category, 25-30% is value-added while only 5-10% can be considered as<br />
a “fashion” product. The proportion is broadly expected to remain on similar lines in the medium term.<br />
The company has maintained distinct identity of each of its brands by focussing on the softer aspects such as unique<br />
features and creating a lifestyle product so that people are drawn towards the brand for these reasons and not on<br />
price. For example, it has always positioned “Killer” as an upmarket brand by associating/using foreign models for the<br />
advertisement campaigns. It has never advertised on pricing of its products, as it is difficult to retain customers once<br />
the price point moves. Thus it has been able to pass on cost increases better than the peer group, which in-turn has<br />
allowed it to generate above-average operating margins.<br />
15
FY10a<br />
FY11a<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
FY10a<br />
FY11a<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
Rs Crore<br />
Rs Crore<br />
FY09a<br />
FY10a<br />
FY11a<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
FY09a<br />
FY10a<br />
FY11a<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
Rs Crore<br />
Rs Crore<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK<br />
Healthy revenue growth visibility through higher sales volumes and increasing realizations<br />
We expect KKCL to remain a leading branded apparel manufacturer with a strong retail presence across the country<br />
through a mix of own stores, franchisee stores, national chain stores and multi-brand outlets. We expect KKCL’s sales<br />
to increase from ~3.36 million pieces in FY11 to ~5.55 million pieces by FY14e, resulting in a healthy 18% CAGR<br />
volume growth. While the realizations are expected to increase by ~10% in FY12e due to the increase in excise duties<br />
on branded apparels, we have assumed 5% CAGR increase in realizations thereafter.<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
15%<br />
2.36 2.72<br />
23% 30%<br />
20% 20% 25%<br />
15% 20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5.55<br />
5%<br />
4.82<br />
0%<br />
4.03<br />
3.36<br />
-5%<br />
-10%<br />
-15%<br />
-20%<br />
900<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
8% 5% 7%<br />
10% 5%<br />
5%<br />
608 639 685 750 787 827<br />
10%<br />
9%<br />
8%<br />
7%<br />
6%<br />
5%<br />
4%<br />
3%<br />
2%<br />
1%<br />
0%<br />
Apparels in Mns Growth %<br />
Realization Rs/Pc Growth %<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
Strong revenue growth expected in-line with the industry; increasing contribution from value brands & low<br />
margin products could moderate margins<br />
Overall, we expect the company to report a strong 27% CAGR in net sales over the next three years in line with the<br />
strong industry growth rates and KKCL’s established position in branded apparels in India. However, increasing<br />
contribution from value and mass market brands like Integriti (which has ~2.8x MRP to prime cost ratio vs. ~3.0<br />
times for Lawman Pg3 and ~3.5 times for Killer brand) and lower margin products like trouser, shirts and T-shirts<br />
(due to lower scope for designing than in denim jeans) are expected to moderate the EBITDA margins by ~450 bps<br />
(from ~29.1% in FY11 to ~24.6% in FY14e). However, relatively low depreciation and interest costs, on account of<br />
asset light business model followed by the company, is expected to reduce the impact on net profit margins, which are<br />
expected to contract by ~340 bps (from 19.6% in FY11 to 16.2% in FY14e) over the next three years.<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
KKCL's Consolidated Revenue Growth<br />
21%<br />
176<br />
34% 33% 27% 22%<br />
236<br />
315<br />
400<br />
486<br />
40.0%<br />
30.0%<br />
20.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
KKCL's Trend in Profitability Margins<br />
30.0%<br />
25.0%<br />
20.0%<br />
15.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
5.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
Operating Income (OI) Growth Rate (%)<br />
EBITDA<br />
EBITDA Margin (RHS)<br />
PAT<br />
PAT Margin (RHS)<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
16
FY10a<br />
FY11a<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
FY10a<br />
FY11a<br />
FY12e<br />
FY13e<br />
FY14e<br />
Rs / Share<br />
Return indicator (%)<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
Asset light business model of expansion through franchise and third party retailing route would ensure industry<br />
leading profitability indicators and strong capital structure going forward<br />
We expect the company to retain and strengthen its asset light model with optimal mix of own vs. outsourced<br />
production as well as own vs. franchise distribution that reduces overhead costs while maintaining product & service<br />
standards. The company currently has 1:8 ratio of company-owned: franchise owned K-Lounge stores and exclusive<br />
brand outlets (EBOs). Going forward, we expect the company to maintain similar ratio and add about 75 exclusive<br />
stores in each of the next three years at an estimated capex of Rs. 130 crore (Rs. 60 crore for infrastructure and Rs. 70<br />
crore for working capital management).<br />
Strong operating profitability and relatively moderate capital requirements are expected resulting in further<br />
improvement in RoCE (from ~36.6% to ~40.9%) and RoE (from ~24.8% to ~27.5%) during the next three years.<br />
Besides, healthy cash accruals are expected to increase the cash and bank balances from ~Rs 95 crore to ~Rs. 125<br />
crore during the same period. Overall, we expect a robust 19% CAGR growth in EPS from 37.5 Rs/share to 63.8<br />
Rs/share for the company over the FY11-FY14e period, aided by stable store expansion and healthy domestic demand<br />
for branded / fashion apparels.<br />
KKCL's EPS Growth<br />
KKCL's Return Indicators & Gearing<br />
70.0<br />
60.0<br />
50.0<br />
40.0<br />
30.0<br />
20.0<br />
10.0<br />
0.0<br />
26<br />
38<br />
44<br />
54<br />
64<br />
140.0%<br />
120.0%<br />
100.0%<br />
80.0%<br />
60.0%<br />
40.0%<br />
20.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
45%<br />
40%<br />
35%<br />
30%<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
0.10<br />
0.08<br />
0.06<br />
0.04<br />
0.02<br />
0.00<br />
EPS<br />
EPS Growth<br />
ROCE RoE Total Debt/(Equity + MI)<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
17
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
COMPANY PROFILE<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> (KKCL) is a leading manufacturer and retailer of branded apparels and fashion-wear in<br />
India. KKCL has over two decades of experience in the domestic readymade garments industry with some leading<br />
brands like ‘Killer’, ‘Lawman Pg3’, ‘Integriti’, ‘Easies’ and ‘ADDICTIONS’.<br />
KKCL is an established player in the ‘Jeans’ segment through its flagship Killer brand, besides having a formidable<br />
presence in Trousers, Shirts, T-shirts & Jackets segments and an emerging presence in lifestyle accessories like shoes,<br />
belts, watches, bracelets, wallets, caps, bags, sunglasses and deodorants through the ADDICTIONS brand.<br />
KKCL markets its products through a chain of 223 ‘K-LOUNGE’ showrooms and exclusive brand outlets (EBOs) across<br />
the country. Besides, KKCL’s products are widely marketed at over 3,500 multi-brand outlets (MBOs) and national<br />
chain stores like Shoppers stop and Hypercity. KKCL’s designing, fabric washing, cutting, stitching and garment<br />
manufacturing facilities are mainly located at Dadar and Goregoan (Mumbai), Daman and Vapi in Western India.<br />
Exhibit 5: Company Factsheet<br />
Name of the Company<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> (KKCL)<br />
Year of Incorporation 1980<br />
Nature of Businesses<br />
Branded apparels manufacturing and retailing<br />
Products<br />
Jeans, Trousers, Shirts, T-shirts, Jackets and Lifestyle accessories<br />
Brands<br />
‘Killer’, ‘Lawman Pg3’, ‘Integriti’, ‘Easies’ and ‘ADDICTIONS’<br />
Company Stores<br />
125 K-Lounges, 48 Killer EBOs, 32 Integriti EBOs, 7 LawmanPg3-EBOs, 4 Addiction-EBO, 7 Factoy Outlet<br />
Distribution Network<br />
Over 3,500 Multi-brand outlets (MBOs) and National Chain stores (like Shoppers stop and Hypercity)<br />
Exports<br />
Middle East, Sri Lanka, Nepal and other countries<br />
Vendors<br />
Fabric manufacturers like Arvind Mills, Raymond, KG Denim, etc<br />
Manufacturing Capacity<br />
3.5 Million pieces per annum (could be stretched further depending on product mix)<br />
Manufacturing Locations Washing, cutting, stitching and garmenting facilities at Dadar and Goregaon (Mumbai), Daman and Vapi<br />
Board of Directors<br />
Mr. <strong>Kewal</strong>chand P. Jain<br />
Mr. Hemant P. Jain<br />
Mr. Dinesh P. Jain<br />
Mr. Vikas P. Jain<br />
Mr. Popatlal F. Sundesha<br />
Mr. Mrudul D. Inamdar<br />
Dr. Prakash A.Mody<br />
Mr. Nimish G. Pandya<br />
- Chairman & Managing Director<br />
- Executive Director<br />
- Executive Director<br />
- Executive Director<br />
- Independent Director<br />
- Independent Director<br />
- Independent Director<br />
- Independent Director<br />
Key Joint Ventures<br />
33% stake in White Knitwear Private Ltd in Surat SEZ<br />
Bankers<br />
Standard Chartered Bank<br />
Auditors<br />
M/s. Jain & Trivedi, M/s. N.A. Shah Associates<br />
IPO Details<br />
Rs. 80.6 crore raised in 2006, Issue of 31 lac shares at Rs. 260 per share, shares are listed on BSE and NSE<br />
Registered & Corporate Office <strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> Estate, Behind Tirupati Udyog, 460/7, I.B. Patel Road, Goregaon (East), Mumbai - 400 063<br />
Windmill<br />
0.6 MW Capacity at Survey No.1119/P, Village Kuchhadi, Taluka Porbunder, District Porbunder, Gujarat<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Online Research<br />
18
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
KKCL’s Key Milestones:<br />
1980:<br />
M/s Keval <strong>Kiran</strong><br />
& Co<br />
incorporated<br />
1989:<br />
Launch of<br />
‘KILLER’<br />
1998:<br />
Launch of<br />
‘LAWMAN’<br />
& ‘EASIES’<br />
2002:<br />
Launch of<br />
‘INTEGRITI’<br />
2004:<br />
Launch of<br />
the first ‘K-<br />
LOUNGE’<br />
2006:<br />
IPO of 31<br />
Lac Shares<br />
2007:<br />
KILLER<br />
WOMEN<br />
Wear<br />
Launched<br />
2011:<br />
Launch of<br />
'Addictions'<br />
KKCL’s Corporate Structure:<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> (KKCL)<br />
Branded apparel<br />
manufacturer and retailer<br />
Killer<br />
Lawman Pg3<br />
easies<br />
Integriti<br />
Addictions<br />
Launch: 1989<br />
Launch: 1998<br />
Launch: 1998<br />
Launch: 2002<br />
Launch: 2011<br />
Segment: Premium<br />
Segment: Mid-premium<br />
Segment: Mid-premium<br />
Segment: Value<br />
Segment: Lifestyle<br />
Products: Denim Jeans,<br />
Designer wear<br />
Products: Clubwear<br />
Jeans, Shirts, Jackets,<br />
trousers, etc<br />
Products: Formal &<br />
Semi-formal menswear<br />
Products: Casuals,<br />
formals and Jeans<br />
Products: Footwear,<br />
Gym Wear, Swim Wear,<br />
eyewear, etc<br />
Revenue Contribution:<br />
51%<br />
Revenue Contribution:<br />
21%<br />
Revenue Contribution:<br />
2%<br />
Revenue Contribution:<br />
25%<br />
Revenue Contribution:<br />
1%<br />
Competition: Levis, Lee,<br />
Spyker, Pepe, Wrangler<br />
Latest Innovations &<br />
Launches: Winter wear –<br />
Jackets and Sweaters<br />
Competition: Mufti,<br />
Newport, Flying<br />
Machine, etc<br />
Latest Innovations &<br />
Launches: Vertebrae and<br />
Chica range<br />
Competition: Peter<br />
England, Dockers, S.<br />
Kumars, etc<br />
Latest Innovations &<br />
Launches: Winter wear<br />
Competition: Mufti,<br />
Adams, Ruff & Tuff, etc<br />
Latest Innovations &<br />
Launches: Integriti Galz<br />
Competition: Titan,<br />
Fastrack, etc<br />
Latest Innovations &<br />
Launches: Deodorants<br />
and personal care<br />
products<br />
Source: Company, <strong>ICRA</strong> Online Research<br />
Governance structure:<br />
KKCL is managed by an eight member Board, which includes four independent directors and four members from the<br />
Jain family. While the family is closely involved in running KKCL’s business, the company has a professional<br />
management structure across the company. The promoter group holds 74% equity stake in the company and the rest<br />
is widely held by institutional and retail investors. The disclosures in KKCL’s Annual Report are adequate and have<br />
been broadly in line with that followed by the industry.<br />
19
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
VALUATION GRADING<br />
In assessing a company's valuation, various parameters are looked at including the company's earnings and growth<br />
prospects; its ability to generate free cash flows and its capacity to generate returns from the capital invested. The<br />
valuation is also benchmarked against an appropriate peer set or index. The opinion on a company's relative valuation<br />
is expressed using the following five-point scale as follows:<br />
Exhibit 6: <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service—Valuation Grades<br />
Valuation Grade<br />
Grade Implication<br />
A<br />
Significantly Undervalued<br />
B<br />
Moderately Undervalued<br />
C<br />
Fairly Valued<br />
D<br />
Moderately Overvalued<br />
E<br />
Significantly Overvalued<br />
While assessing a company's relative valuation,<br />
the historical price volatility exhibited by the<br />
stock, besides its liquidity, is also taken into<br />
account. The extent of overvaluation or<br />
undervaluation is adjusted for the relative<br />
volatility displayed by the stock.<br />
Source: <strong>ICRA</strong> Online Research<br />
KKCL’s current valuation multiple (~12.9x times FY13 earnings) is at a premium to broader market indices like Nifty<br />
Index, CNX 500 index or CNX Midcap index. However, KKCL continues to be one of the most reasonably valued<br />
domestic consumption plays with strong established brand, wide distribution reach and strong balance sheet. Overall,<br />
we expect the company to report a healthy 27% CAGR revenue growth and 19% CAGR EPS growth over the FY11a-<br />
FY14e period, aided by rapid expansions in Tier – II and Tier – III cities. Hence, we assign a valuation grade of “C” to<br />
KKCL on a grading scale of ‘A’ to ‘E’, which indicates that the company is “Fairly Valued” on a relative basis.<br />
Exhibit 7: KKCL’S Relative Valuations:<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Estimates<br />
KEWAL KIRAN<br />
CLOTHING<br />
NIFTY<br />
INDEX<br />
CNX 500<br />
INDEX<br />
CNX MIDCAP<br />
INDEX<br />
FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E<br />
Price/Earnings 15.85 12.93 13.19 11.29 12.38 10.31 10.63 8.79<br />
EV/EBITDA 9.45 7.53 9.25 8.11 9.13 7.69 9.39 7.44<br />
Price /Sales 2.73 2.16 1.45 1.33 1.15 1.04 0.67 0.61<br />
Price /Book Value 3.79 3.26 2.03 1.78 1.78 1.56 1.21 1.09<br />
Price/Cash Flow 14.06 11.46 9.46 8.15 8.93 7.42 8.17 6.34<br />
<strong>ICRA</strong> Estimates<br />
KEWAL KIRAN<br />
CLOTHING<br />
PANTALOON<br />
RETAIL<br />
SHOPPERS<br />
STOP<br />
TRENT<br />
ARVIND<br />
PROVOGUE<br />
(INDIA)<br />
FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13<br />
Price/Earnings 15.85 12.93 13.72 10.25 36.49 23.53 n.m. 35.29 6.75 5.27 6.37 5.20<br />
EV/EBITDA 9.45 7.53 9.66 8.26 17.01 12.14 146.01 14.70 6.14 5.54 9.42 8.14<br />
Price /Sales 2.73 2.16 0.21 0.18 0.73 0.59 0.89 0.63 0.38 0.34 0.37 0.34<br />
Price /Book Value 3.79 3.26 0.84 0.78 3.82 3.40 1.99 2.24 0.75 0.66 0.43 0.40<br />
Price/Cash Flow 14.06 11.46 6.30 5.13 19.92 14.35 57.93 19.81 3.45 2.90 5.34 4.59<br />
Source: Bloomberg, <strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service * Bloomberg Consensus Estimates as on 30 th December, 2011<br />
20
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
ANNEXURES<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> – Revenue Break-up (Consolidated)<br />
FY09a FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e<br />
Killer<br />
Volumes (Mn Pcs) 1.10 1.31 1.52 1.81 2.12 2.42<br />
Growth % 18.5% 16.3% 18.7% 17.1% 14.3%<br />
Realizations (Rs/ Pc) 681 700 780 854 896 941<br />
Growth % 2.8% 11.3% 9.5% 5.0% 5.0%<br />
Sales (Rs Crore) 75.27 91.72 118.77 154.39 189.90 227.88<br />
Growth % 21.9% 29.5% 30.0% 23.0% 20.0%<br />
Integriti<br />
Volumes 0.68 0.80 1.05 1.23 1.50 1.74<br />
Growth % 16.5% 31.9% 17.0% 21.9% 16.2%<br />
Realizations 475 515 553 606 636 668<br />
Growth % 8.6% 7.3% 9.5% 5.0% 5.0%<br />
Sales 32.41 41.03 58.09 74.40 95.23 116.18<br />
Growth % 26.6% 41.6% 28.1% 28.0% 22.0%<br />
Lawman Pg3<br />
Volumes 0.50 0.59 0.70 0.87 1.06 1.23<br />
Growth % 17.8% 19.0% 24.6% 21.9% 16.2%<br />
Realizations 620 652 697 763 802 842<br />
Growth % 5.2% 6.9% 9.5% 5.0% 5.0%<br />
Sales 30.89 38.28 48.71 66.47 85.09 103.81<br />
Growth % 23.9% 27.2% 36.5% 28.0% 22.0%<br />
Easies<br />
Volumes 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.13<br />
Growth % -36.6% -0.9% 42.3% 23.8% 14.3%<br />
Realizations 600 660 731 801 841 883<br />
Growth % 10.0% 10.8% 9.5% 5.0% 5.0%<br />
Sales 6.10 4.25 4.67 7.28 9.46 11.35<br />
Growth % -30.3% 9.8% 55.8% 30.0% 20.0%<br />
Total Apparel sales<br />
Volumes 2.39 2.76 3.34 4.00 4.79 5.52<br />
Growth % 15.5% 21.0% 19.9% 19.8% 15.3%<br />
Realizations 606 636 690 757 793 832<br />
Growth % 4.9% 8.6% 9.5% 5.0% 5.0%<br />
Sales 144.66 175.28 230.24 302.54 379.68 459.22<br />
Growth % 21.2% 31.4% 31.4% 25.5% 20.9%<br />
Others / Addiction Sales 5.07 25.00 35.00 45.00<br />
Growth % 392.7% 40.0% 28.6%<br />
Total Gross Sales 144.46 175.28 235.31 327.54 414.68 504.22<br />
Growth % 21.3% 34.2% 39.2% 26.6% 21.6%<br />
21
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> – P&L Estimates (Consolidated)<br />
Rs. Crore FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e<br />
Net sales 175.3 235.3 313.9 397.6 483.6<br />
Other related income 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.4<br />
Operating Income (OI) 175.9 236.5 315.5 399.5 485.9<br />
Growth Rate (%) 21.0% 34.4% 33.4% 26.7% 21.6%<br />
EBITDA 48.1 68.9 80.8 100.4 119.7<br />
Depreciation 5.8 5.9 7.0 8.6 10.6<br />
EBIT 42.2 63.0 73.9 91.8 109.1<br />
Interest expenses 2.3 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.4<br />
Other income/expense 8.9 8.3 8.9 9.6 10.2<br />
PBT (before extraordinary) 48.7 69.3 81.5 99.9 117.8<br />
Extraordinary Gain/Loss 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
PAT 32.5 46.2 54.4 66.7 78.6<br />
PAT (concern share) 32.5 46.2 54.4 66.7 78.6<br />
No of shares 12,325,037 12,325,037 12,325,037 12,325,037 12,325,037<br />
DPS 85.5 40.8 17.0 20.8 24.5<br />
EPS 26.4 37.5 44.2 54.1 63.8<br />
CEPS 31.1 42.3 49.8 61.1 72.4<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> – Balance Sheet Estimates (Consolidated)<br />
Rs. Crore FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e<br />
Net worth 175.2 197.8 227.7 264.4 307.6<br />
Minority interest 0.0 - - - 0.0<br />
Total Debt 15.8 5.6 8.0 8.0 8.0<br />
Non-Operating Non Current Liability 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Deferred Tax Liability (1.7) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6)<br />
Trade Creditors 16.0 18.2 23.0 29.4 36.0<br />
Other Current Liabilities and Prov. 13.8 30.3 45.8 57.0 68.3<br />
Total liabilities 219.2 250.2 302.9 357.2 418.2<br />
Net Fixed Assets 40.0 40.6 48.6 60.0 74.4<br />
Capital Work in Progress 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1<br />
Total Net Fixed Assets 42.7 42.7 50.8 62.2 76.6<br />
Total Long-Term Investments 32.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8<br />
Cash and Bank Balances 80.2 95.3 107.1 115.3 125.2<br />
Receivables (incl. bills discounted) 24.1 29.8 44.9 62.5 82.9<br />
Inventories 21.8 36.8 48.4 58.8 68.3<br />
Loans & Advances 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.1<br />
Other Current Assets 16.0 16.7 22.3 28.2 34.3<br />
Total Current Assets 143.5 180.7 225.3 268.1 314.8<br />
Total Assets 219.2 250.2 302.9 357.2 418.2<br />
22
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> – Cash Flow Estimates (Consolidated)<br />
Rs. Crore FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e<br />
OPBDIT 48.1 68.9 80.8 100.4 119.7<br />
Less: Taxes 16.4 23.0 27.1 33.2 39.2<br />
Changes in Net Working Capital 2.8 (0.6) (13.8) (13.0) (14.2)<br />
Net Interest Charges (2.3) (2.1) (1.2) (1.4) (1.4)<br />
Cash flow from operating activities 32.1 43.2 38.7 52.7 64.9<br />
Investments (2.1) 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Capital expenditures (3.0) (5.7) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0)<br />
Cash flow from investing activities (5.1) 0.3 (15.0) (20.0) (25.0)<br />
Equity Raised / (Buyback) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Loans Raised / (Repaid) (7.8) (10.2) 2.4 0.0 0.0<br />
Others (Including Extra-ordinaries) 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Dividend (4.3) (15.4) (14.3) (24.5) (30.0)<br />
Cash Flow from Financing activities (12.1) (25.8) (11.9) (24.5) (30.0)<br />
Cumulative cash flow 14.9 17.7 11.8 8.2 9.8<br />
Opening Cash Balance 65.3 80.2 95.3 107.1 115.3<br />
Closing Cash Balance 80.2 97.9 107.1 115.3 125.2<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong> – Key Financial Ratios (Consolidated)<br />
FY10a FY11a FY12e FY13e FY14e<br />
Growth indicators<br />
Sales Growth 21.2% 34.2% 33.4% 26.7% 21.6%<br />
EBITDA Growth 101.6% 43.3% 17.4% 24.2% 19.2%<br />
EPS Growth 128.1% 42.2% 17.7% 22.5% 17.9%<br />
Cash EPS Growth 98.8% 35.8% 17.9% 22.7% 18.5%<br />
Profitability indicators<br />
EBITDA Margin 27.3% 29.1% 25.6% 25.1% 24.6%<br />
EBIT Margin 24.0% 26.7% 23.4% 23.0% 22.4%<br />
PAT Margin 18.5% 19.6% 17.3% 16.7% 16.2%<br />
RoE 19.9% 24.8% 25.6% 27.1% 27.5%<br />
ROCE 28.2% 36.6% 38.1% 40.2% 40.9%<br />
Liquidity ratios<br />
Debtor (days) 50 46 50 55 60<br />
Inventory (days) 90 112 105 100 95<br />
Net working capital/Revenues 24.0% 21.6% 23.4% 24.1% 24.9%<br />
Capitalization Ratios<br />
Total Debt/(Equity + MI) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Interest coverage 20.6 33.4 66.2 69.7 83.1<br />
Total Debt/EBITDA 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1<br />
Valuation Ratios<br />
Price/Sales 4.9 3.6 2.7 2.2 1.8<br />
Price/Earnings 26.5 18.7 15.9 12.9 11.0<br />
Price/Book Value 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.3 2.8<br />
EV/EBITDA 16.6 11.2 9.4 7.5 6.2<br />
Price/Cash Flows 22.5 16.6 14.1 11.5 9.7<br />
23
<strong>ICRA</strong> Equity Research Service<br />
<strong>Kewal</strong> <strong>Kiran</strong> <strong>Clothing</strong> <strong>Limited</strong><br />
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