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UK policy should aim at<br />

reduc<strong>in</strong>g global impacts<br />

For all three scenarios <strong>the</strong> global environmental impact<br />

is reduced, but <strong>in</strong> each case <strong>the</strong> environmental impact<br />

with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK alone is <strong>in</strong>creased. This is significant<br />

as UK environmental policy is generally focused on<br />

UK <strong>in</strong>dicators alone, which is politically rational but<br />

environmentally illogical.<br />

Mov<strong>in</strong>g production to <strong>the</strong><br />

UK has a social cost <strong>in</strong><br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a <strong>and</strong> India<br />

<strong>The</strong> base case shows that <strong>the</strong> contribution<br />

to GNI from <strong>the</strong>se two products is very<br />

much larger <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK than elsewhere,<br />

due to <strong>the</strong> higher gross marg<strong>in</strong>s<br />

available to retailers, <strong>and</strong> all three<br />

scenarios lead to <strong>in</strong>creased GNI <strong>and</strong><br />

improved balance <strong>of</strong> trade <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK as<br />

it becomes more self-sufficient.<br />

Scenario analysis for <strong>the</strong> T-shirt<br />

United States <strong>of</strong> America: impacts<br />

161 161<br />

148<br />

313 307<br />

281<br />

969 954 876<br />

75.5<br />

144<br />

448<br />

CCI<br />

WASTE<br />

EI<br />

252 252 231 46.0 10.2 10.2 9.33 2.36<br />

GNI<br />

EMP<br />

However, tak<strong>in</strong>g production away from Ch<strong>in</strong>a <strong>and</strong><br />

India clearly elim<strong>in</strong>ates any contribution to GNI<br />

from <strong>the</strong>se products <strong>and</strong> also takes away <strong>the</strong> jobs<br />

associated with production. Economists traditionally<br />

view <strong>the</strong> significance <strong>of</strong> this effect differently <strong>in</strong><br />

countries with full employment (UK <strong>and</strong> USA) <strong>and</strong><br />

those with under-employment (Ch<strong>in</strong>a, India). <strong>The</strong><br />

logic <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> dist<strong>in</strong>ction is that <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK, to a fair<br />

approximation, everyone who wants a job has one<br />

– so add<strong>in</strong>g jobs <strong>in</strong> <strong>cloth<strong>in</strong>g</strong> production, as happens<br />

dramatically <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> first scenario, is only possible by<br />

tak<strong>in</strong>g people away from o<strong>the</strong>r employment. It is<br />

likely that this will be harmful to <strong>the</strong> UK economy<br />

– as <strong>the</strong> free-market will already have led to <strong>the</strong><br />

most pr<strong>of</strong>itable employment. In contrast, <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />

or India, <strong>the</strong>re is an excess supply <strong>of</strong> people who<br />

would like work, but can’t f<strong>in</strong>d it. <strong>The</strong>ir alternative to<br />

employment is subsistence liv<strong>in</strong>g. Thus <strong>the</strong> scenarios<br />

tak<strong>in</strong>g production from Ch<strong>in</strong>a or India to <strong>the</strong> UK has<br />

no beneficial effect on UK employment, but is harmful<br />

<strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a <strong>and</strong> India as it forces those employed <strong>in</strong><br />

produc<strong>in</strong>g UK <strong>cloth<strong>in</strong>g</strong> to return to a poorer life.<br />

Mov<strong>in</strong>g production from Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />

to <strong>the</strong> UK would be expensive<br />

Although <strong>the</strong> UK’s national <strong>in</strong>come <strong>and</strong> balance <strong>of</strong><br />

trade is improved <strong>in</strong> all three scenarios, <strong>the</strong> operat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

surplus for <strong>the</strong> first scenario (shift<strong>in</strong>g production from<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a to <strong>the</strong> UK with no o<strong>the</strong>r change) is virtually zero.<br />

<strong>The</strong> analysis has assumed that <strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>al price to <strong>the</strong><br />

consumer is constant, so <strong>the</strong> high cost <strong>of</strong> employ<strong>in</strong>g<br />

an additional 147,000 people <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK is paid for<br />

by a loss <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>itability among UK companies. It is<br />

Key<br />

CCI<br />

WASTE<br />

EI<br />

BOT<br />

OS<br />

GNI<br />

EMP<br />

Base case<br />

Chang<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> location<br />

<strong>of</strong> exist<strong>in</strong>g operations<br />

Changed location with<br />

new production technology<br />

Change location with new production<br />

technology <strong>and</strong> local recycl<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Climate Change Impact [thous<strong>and</strong> tonnes CO 2e<br />

]<br />

Waste [thous<strong>and</strong> tonnes]<br />

Environmental Impact [thous<strong>and</strong> PET * ]<br />

Balance <strong>of</strong> Trade [million £GBP]<br />

Operat<strong>in</strong>g Surplus [million £GBP]<br />

Gross National Income [million £GBP]<br />

Employment [thous<strong>and</strong> employees]<br />

34 WELL DRESSED?

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