The Russian Fashion Retail Market - Igedo Company

More documents

Recommendations

Info

4. Shopping Mall Development 4.1. Shopping Center JUNE opened in Cherepovets, North-West Region 4.2. OZ-MALL under construction in Krasnodar on 46 hectares 4.3. Owners of EVROPEYSKIY Mall in Moscow investing in PAVELETSKAYA MALL 4.4. Second GOLDEN PARK MALL to open in Novosibirsk 4-5. KOMSOMOL MALL inaugurated in Ekaterinburg 4.6. St. Petersburg in second place of shopping mall implementation in Europe 1) Politics and Economics 1.1. Gross Domestic Product might rise by 6,2 per cent in 2010 September 2010, Bloomberg Corporate Executive Board (CEB) and cisstat After subsequent higher one digit growth of the Russian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the past ten years, this indicator dipped by 7,9 per cent in 2009. Over the first quarter of 2010 GDP increased by 2,9 per cent against the same period of 2009. The first semester of this year saw a rise of 4,0 per cent. According to the chart below, CEB projects a GDP growth for 2010 ranging between 2,9 % (low estimate), 4,0 (medium estimate) and 6,2% (high estimate) at real terms: 1.2. Industrial production up by 10,2 per cent over 2 nd Quarter 2010 September 2010, www.cisstat.com, main macroeconomic indicators Industrial production increased in Russia at an average rate of 5,3 per cent from 2000 till 2008. In 2009 this indicator declined by 10,8 per cent against 2008. During the first quarter of this year industrial production attained a growth of 5,8 per cent. From January till June output of the Russian industry recorded an increase of 10,2 per cent against the first semester of 2009. Agricultural production faced different results. Whereas turnover rose by 3,6 per cent during the first quarter of this year, the first six months saw a reduced growth at 2,9 per cent. 1.3. Unemployment down by 20 per cent September 2010, cisstat.com According to ROSSTAT records, unemployment in Russia, which kept rising over the crisis year 2009 and the first quarter of 2010 to a peak of 2,3 mn people (in February 2010) started to decline in April 2010. Over the second quarter including July 2010, the rate of reduction accounted for 20 %. In July there were 1,79 mn people registered as unemployed against a total of 2,234 mn in March 2010. 2
1.4. Imports back on the growth path September 2010, cisstat.com, first semester key macro indicators As it is commonly known due to the lack of diversified industry basis, Russia is highly dependant on imports of both, industrial products and consumer goods. From 2000 till 2008, imports from third countries, excluding CIS-nations rose at an average annual rate of 29 per cent . The peak was reached in 2007, when imports surged by 47 per cent against 2006. In 2008 growth slowed down by 23 per cent against the year before an it plummeted at a rate of 37 per cent in 2009. The turnaround has been reached over the first quarter of this year, when imports from third countries rose by 17,2 per cent compared to the first three months of 2009. At the end of the first semester of this year imports picked up at a cumulated rise of 28, 6 per cent. 1.5. Capital investments keep increasing: higher yields August 30, 2010, Handelsblatt/Investment Strategies According to Matthias Siller, manager of Barings Russia Fund, the country is the cheapest market for investors at a time right now when fundamental economic data for Russia are commonly considered as very convincing. As Siller says, global portfolio investors find no way around Russia for getting higher yields than here. Shocked by the Euro-crisis in May, this year, global institutional investors jumped on Russian government bonds issued in Roubles and US Dollars, bringing the investor an annual yield of 5,4 per cent. According to Segei Arsenyev, analyst at Goldman Sachs, he expects high profit margins from investments in stock of Russian trading and retail companies selling consumer products as well as raw materials for industrial use. 1.6. Inflation likely to rise 3 rd Quarter 2010, The Global Blue Respective/ Handelsblatt Although monthly inflation came down from 8 per cent at the beginning of this year to 3,6 per cent in May, forecasts of the Russian Ministry of Finance aiming at an average inflation rate of 5 to 6 per cent for 2010, may not come true. According to the US economist Nourid Roubini, there are a number of indicators pointing at an overall inflation rate possibly reaching 8 per cent this year. Higher inflation than originally forecasted by the government may result from strong rising prices for wheat, other foodstuffs and basic commodities, raw materials, increase of salaries and wages such as from a declining US $ in combination with a stronger € and a weaker Russian Rouble. 1.7. Fire devastation may cost Russia US $ 15 bn August 11, 2010, Stuttgarter Zeitung It is still premature to assess the economic and social damage caused by the heat-wave and forest fire devastation which have hit Russia in July and August 2010. Experts speak of a cost burden of around US $ 15 bn resulting from this catastrophy. Almost any economy sector has been directly or indirectly affected. Mobile telephone providers were hit extremely hard because their networks collapsed under destroyed transmission posts, telephone cable and networks. Water supply was partially interrupted from the breakdown of power pumps. Consumption of electricity surged because air conditioners operated at their maximum capacity. In 27 Russian federal regions agriculture faces losses in crops of wheat and other foodstuffs accounting for 20 percent below average summer crops results. The government stopped wheat exports on August 5. This decree is valid until December 31, 2010. Russia is the fourth largest wheat exporter world wide and expects a negative effect on its balance of trade. According to Vladimir Milov, former federal energy minister and leader of the liberal opposition party 3
Page 1: no.10/ July/August 2010 the profash
Page 5 and 6: 2.3. Strong recovery of demand for
Page 7 and 8: take responsibility for the Belo-Ru
Page 9 and 10: Shpagina, Director General of DIALM
Page 11 and 12: electronics and household appliance

The Russian Fashion Retail Market - Igedo Company

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?