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globalCOAL - Country & Industry Forecasting: IHS Global Insight

globalCOAL - Country & Industry Forecasting: IHS Global Insight

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Change in the coal market<br />

Factors / history through the 1990’s:<br />

PAST<br />

FUTURE<br />

E-trade<br />

Typically coal bought on long term contract<br />

Annual pricing<br />

Deregulation of the power sector led to competition<br />

Tenure of contracts became shorter<br />

Increased spot purchasing<br />

Paper coal contracts (API2) started 1998<br />

Asia still well behind but deregulation is coming<br />

Approximate annual volumes:<br />

SPOT<br />

MARKETS<br />

LONG<br />

TERM<br />

CONTRACT<br />

SPOT<br />

MARKETS<br />

TENDER<br />

CONTRACT<br />

LONG<br />

TERM<br />

CONTRACT<br />

but short term<br />

pricing<br />

Atlantic seaborne steam coal:<br />

Atlantic (ARA + RBCT, SA) swaps:<br />

Asia-Pacific steam coal:<br />

Pacific swaps (Newcastle):<br />

180 MT p.a.<br />

600 MT p.a.?<br />

250 MT p.a<br />

10 MT p.a.?

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