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Global Markets<br />
The Fifth Annual new England Public Finance<br />
Conference Bos<strong>to</strong>n, MA<br />
The Importance of Swap Pricing<br />
Marko Issever, Managing Direc<strong>to</strong>r<br />
Oc<strong>to</strong>ber 22-23 2007
Agenda<br />
I. Introduction <strong>to</strong> The Bank of New York Mellon<br />
II. Current Swap Opportunities<br />
III. How <strong>to</strong> rebalance existing CMS swaps in <strong>the</strong> current market environment<br />
IV. What are some of <strong>the</strong> reasons BMA vs. LIBOR swaps move?<br />
V. Relationship Contacts<br />
Page 2
Section I.<br />
Introduction <strong>to</strong> The Bank of New York Mellon
The Bank of New York Mellon<br />
• One of <strong>the</strong> largest U.S. bank<br />
holding companies<br />
• Average assets of $140 billion<br />
• $1 trillion in assets under<br />
management<br />
• Presence in 37 countries<br />
• Subcus<strong>to</strong>dian Network spanning more<br />
than 100 markets<br />
• Current market capitalization over<br />
$32 billion<br />
• $18 trillion under cus<strong>to</strong>dy and<br />
administration worldwide<br />
• The nation’s oldest bank, founded by<br />
Alexander Hamil<strong>to</strong>n in 1784<br />
Page 4
Over<strong>view</strong> of Derivatives Capabilities<br />
Bank of New York Mellon’s Strengths<br />
• Major dealer in a broad range of derivative<br />
products (interest rates, FX, and equity)<br />
• Strong credit rating; Moody’s: Aaa, S&P: AA-<br />
• Consultative sales approach – client driven<br />
business<br />
• Market leadership in OTC options and<br />
structured products<br />
• BK is a market leader in Bermuda options<br />
market<br />
• Robust client risk management<br />
Key Takeaways<br />
• BK is a global leader in derivatives<br />
• BK provides risk management structuring and<br />
solution ideas<br />
• BK is a highly rated derivative (Aaa, AA-) and<br />
provides competitive pricing<br />
• BK provides information flow, advice and<br />
counterparty diversity<br />
Breadth of Products<br />
• Tax Exempt Swaps and Options<br />
• Taxable Indices – Libor Based Percentage<br />
Swaps Applied <strong>to</strong> Tax-Exempt Market<br />
• Basis Swaps – BMA, CP, Fed Funds,<br />
LIBOR, Prime, T-Bill<br />
• Interest Rate Swaps & Treasury Locks<br />
• Swaptions and Forward Rate Agreements<br />
• Cross Currency Swaps<br />
• Interest Rate Options - Simple & Exotic<br />
• OTC Treasury Options<br />
• Equity Derivatives<br />
Page 5
Section II.<br />
Current Swap Opportunities
Benefits of Swaps and Derivatives<br />
• Swaps enable issuers and inves<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> make efficient financial decisions.<br />
• Most often, it will be advantageous <strong>to</strong> execute a transaction ei<strong>the</strong>r purely in<br />
<strong>the</strong> “cash market’ or syn<strong>the</strong>tically in <strong>the</strong> “cash and derivative markets”.<br />
• Derivatives can be used in two ways:<br />
Arbitrage<br />
Hedging<br />
Cash Flow matched<br />
Statistical<br />
Perfect<br />
Close but imperfect<br />
Perfect<br />
Close but imperfect<br />
Page 7
Interest Rate Management – Issuance Hedging<br />
Forward Starting Interest Rate Swap (Cash flows at start of forward date)<br />
Today, Issuer and Counterparty enter in<strong>to</strong> forward starting interest rate swap<br />
All documentation and terms of <strong>the</strong> swap are put in<strong>to</strong> place <strong>to</strong>day<br />
Forward start date <strong>to</strong> match expected fixed rate bond issuance date<br />
Embedded forward premium is cost of <strong>the</strong> hedge<br />
Timeline<br />
Execute Swap <strong>to</strong><br />
lock in forward<br />
fixed rate swap<br />
Option 1: Issue fixed<br />
rate bonds and<br />
terminate swap<br />
or<br />
Option 2: Issue floating<br />
rate bonds and swap<br />
payments begin<br />
Tax-Exempt<br />
Issuer<br />
Fixed Swap Rate<br />
Floating Index (BMA, %of<br />
Libor)<br />
The Bank of<br />
New York<br />
Mellon<br />
Swap and<br />
bonds mature<br />
Today<br />
Option 1 – Issue fixed and terminate swap:<br />
If rates rise, <strong>the</strong> swap is in-<strong>the</strong>-money. The cash received from <strong>the</strong> unwind offsets <strong>the</strong> higher issuing cost.<br />
If rates decline, <strong>the</strong> swap is out-of-<strong>the</strong> money. The all-in cost for <strong>the</strong> issuance will be in line with <strong>the</strong> forward swap rate.<br />
Option 2 – Issue floating and leave swap outstanding:<br />
If issuing <strong>the</strong> fixed rate is less advantageous, <strong>the</strong> fixed rate term funding could be syn<strong>the</strong>tically achieved by leaving <strong>the</strong> swap<br />
intact and issuing floating.<br />
Page 8<br />
Issue Date and Swap Effective Date<br />
Indicative Forward Starting Swap Pricing – Based on 67% of 1-Month LIBOR (as of 9/20/07)<br />
5-Year Swaps<br />
10-Year Swaps<br />
30-Year Swaps<br />
Start Date/<br />
Lock Period Forward Rate Spot Rate Premium Forward Rate Spot Rate Premium Forward Rate Spot Rate Premium<br />
3-Months 3.271% 3.271% 0.000% 3.511% 3.503% 0.008% 3.688% 3.686% 0.003%<br />
6-Months 3.290% 3.271% 0.019% 3.526% 3.503% 0.023% 3.696% 3.686% 0.010%<br />
12-Months 3.355% 3.271% 0.084% 3.574% 3.503% 0.072% 3.719% 3.686% 0.033%<br />
Maturity
Flexible Start Date Swap<br />
Situation<br />
An issuer would like <strong>to</strong> hedge its interest rate exposure associated with a planned debt<br />
issuance <strong>to</strong> fund a capital project. The problem is that <strong>the</strong> project start date and debt issuance<br />
timing is not certain, but will occur from 2 <strong>to</strong> 6 months from <strong>to</strong>day. This makes it difficult <strong>to</strong><br />
effectively hedge <strong>the</strong> interest rate exposure associated with <strong>the</strong> debt issuance.<br />
Solution<br />
Issuers can lock in a fixed rate with a swap with a flexible start<br />
date <strong>to</strong> hedge a debt issuance with an uncertain closing date.<br />
Under <strong>the</strong> terms of <strong>the</strong> swap, <strong>the</strong> issuer pays fixed and<br />
receives 67% of 1-month LIBOR on a monthly basis.<br />
The future interest cost of project is locked in <strong>to</strong>day and can<br />
be accurately forecasted over <strong>the</strong> life of <strong>the</strong> project without yet<br />
knowing <strong>the</strong> exact starting date of <strong>the</strong> project.<br />
Today’s flat yield curve environment allows for locking in <strong>the</strong><br />
future interest expense at a relatively low cost <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> issuer.<br />
Indicative Pricing for a Flexible Start Date Swap<br />
Start Date of Sw ap w ill be from 2 <strong>to</strong> 6 months<br />
Notional<br />
$50mm Amortizing<br />
Sw ap Start Date<br />
2-months <strong>to</strong> 6-months<br />
Sw ap End Date<br />
30-Years<br />
Floating Rate Index for Sw ap<br />
67% of LIBOR<br />
Fixed Sw ap Rate for Sw ap starting in 2-months 3.687%<br />
Fixed Sw ap Rate for Sw ap starting in 6-months 3.696%<br />
Flexible Start Date Sw ap Rate (Starts in 2 <strong>to</strong> 6 months) 3.72%<br />
Client enters in<strong>to</strong><br />
Flexible Starting<br />
Swap<br />
Client Exercises<br />
Swap<br />
Exercise Window<br />
Today 2-Months 6-Months*<br />
Swap Rate is<br />
Locked in<br />
First Day Swap<br />
Can be exercised.<br />
Last day of window.<br />
*Swap must be exercised by this date.<br />
Page 9
Issue Tax-Exempt Fixed or Swap <strong>to</strong> Fixed?<br />
In <strong>the</strong> current market environment, it is attractive <strong>to</strong> issue floating rate debt and<br />
syn<strong>the</strong>tically swap <strong>the</strong> debt <strong>to</strong> fixed.<br />
4.80%<br />
4.60%<br />
4.40%<br />
4.20%<br />
4.00%<br />
3.80%<br />
3.60%<br />
3.40%<br />
3.20%<br />
3.00%<br />
MMD Tax-Exempt Yield Curve versus SIFMA and 67% of<br />
LIBOR Swap Curves<br />
VRDB 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30<br />
MMD "AAA" SIFMA Swap Rate 67% of LIBOR<br />
Sources: BNY Capital Markets, Inc., The Bank of New York, Municipal Market Data<br />
Page 10<br />
Tenor 5 10 15 20 25 30<br />
Issue Tax-Exempt Fixed 3.63% 3.96% 4.29% 4.47% 4.58% 4.62%<br />
SIFMA Swap 3.48% 3.80% 4.00% 4.11% 4.15% 4.20%<br />
Difference Vs. Issue Fixed -0.15% -0.16% -0.29% -0.36% -0.43% -0.42%<br />
67% of LIBOR Swap 3.23% 3.45% 3.55% 3.59% 3.60% 3.60%<br />
Difference vs. Issue Fixed -0.40% -0.51% -0.74% -0.88% -0.98% -1.02%
Issue Tax-Exempt Fixed or Swap <strong>to</strong> Fixed?<br />
• As a result of <strong>the</strong> Fed tightening cycle<br />
which began in mid-2004 and strong<br />
demand by foreign inves<strong>to</strong>rs for longdated<br />
US Treasuries, <strong>the</strong> LIBOR swap<br />
curve has flattened considerably.<br />
• Spread between 2-Year and 30-Year<br />
LIBOR swap rates (a measure of <strong>the</strong><br />
curve’s “steepness”) has declined from<br />
over 375 bps July 2003 and is<br />
approximately 86 bps <strong>to</strong>day.<br />
• The “flatness” of <strong>the</strong> LIBOR swap<br />
curve has approached current levels<br />
for only brief periods over <strong>the</strong> past 10<br />
years.<br />
• This flatness provides an Issuer with<br />
an opportunity <strong>to</strong> enhance its existing<br />
or new swap structures by going<br />
fur<strong>the</strong>r out on <strong>the</strong> yield curve using a<br />
Constant Maturity Swap (CMS).<br />
His<strong>to</strong>rical LIBOR-Based Swap Yield Curves<br />
6.00<br />
September 2006<br />
5.00<br />
September 2007<br />
4.00 September 2005<br />
3.00<br />
2.00 September 2004<br />
1.00<br />
1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr 15yr 20yr 30yr<br />
400<br />
350<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
-50<br />
His<strong>to</strong>rical Spread between 2Yr-30 Yr Swap Rates<br />
9/20/94<br />
9/20/95<br />
9/20/96<br />
9/20/97<br />
9/20/98<br />
9/20/99<br />
9/20/00<br />
9/20/01<br />
9/20/02<br />
9/20/03<br />
9/20/04<br />
9/20/05<br />
9/20/06<br />
9/20/07<br />
Page 11
What is a CMS Swap?<br />
CMS Swap Mechanics<br />
• In a CMS Swap based on <strong>the</strong> LIBOR index, an issuer receives a percentage of term LIBOR (such as a percentage of<br />
10-Year LIBOR, <strong>the</strong> 10-year constant maturity for LIBOR) instead of receiving a percentage of 1-Month LIBOR.<br />
• Identical <strong>to</strong> swaps based on 1-Month LIBOR, <strong>the</strong> variable rate index (percentage of 10-Year LIBOR) will be reset on any<br />
desirable frequency.<br />
Bondholders<br />
Issuer<br />
Fixed<br />
Rate<br />
Bank of New<br />
York Mellon<br />
Actual Auction<br />
Rate<br />
% of 10-Year LIBOR<br />
Execute CMS Transactions in Flat Curve Environment and Benefit When Curve Steepens<br />
Yield (%)<br />
8.00<br />
Current Flat Yield Curve Environment<br />
Yield (%)<br />
8.00<br />
Traditional Steep Yield Curve<br />
7.00<br />
6.00<br />
10-Year LIBOR<br />
7.00<br />
6.00<br />
CMS<br />
Benefit<br />
10-Year LIBOR<br />
5.00<br />
5.00<br />
4.00<br />
1-month LIBOR<br />
1m 3m 1yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr<br />
Maturity<br />
4.00<br />
1-month LIBOR<br />
1 m 3m 1yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr<br />
Maturity<br />
Page 12
Considerations of Utilizing CMS<br />
Benefits<br />
• A CMS provides economic benefit during periods<br />
when <strong>the</strong> yield curve is normally shaped (upward<br />
sloping)<br />
• A CMS adds diversification <strong>to</strong> an Issuer’s swap<br />
portfolio<br />
Considerations<br />
• The primary risk associated with LIBOR CMS is <strong>the</strong><br />
long-term continuation of a flat or inversion of <strong>the</strong><br />
LIBOR curve (long term rates are lower than short<br />
term rates)<br />
• Will not qualify for hedge accounting.<br />
• A CMS enhancement has his<strong>to</strong>rically mitigated<br />
“compression” risk often experienced in low interest<br />
rate environments<br />
His<strong>to</strong>rical Comparison of <strong>the</strong> 10-Year Treasury vs. <strong>the</strong> 3-Month Treasury Bill<br />
23.0<br />
19.0<br />
15.0<br />
11.0<br />
7.0<br />
3.0<br />
(1.0)<br />
(5.0)<br />
Page 13<br />
Spread 3m T-bill 10yr Treasury<br />
CMS transactions<br />
mitigated basis risk during<br />
<strong>the</strong> recent yield<br />
compression period<br />
04/02/62 05/21/66 07/09/70 08/27/74 10/15/78 12/03/82 01/22/87 03/12/91 04/30/95 06/18/99 08/06/03 09/24/07<br />
24.0<br />
20.0<br />
16.0<br />
12.0<br />
8.0<br />
4.0<br />
0.0<br />
(4.0)
Plain Vanilla Interest Rate Swap Mechanics<br />
Interest Rate Swap<br />
• A swap is priced in order <strong>to</strong> equate <strong>the</strong> fixed rate payments <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> expected floating<br />
rate payments<br />
− PV floating = PV fixed<br />
• Floating rate cash flows are calculated from <strong>the</strong> market’s expectations of a forward<br />
interest curve<br />
• Fixed rate is <strong>the</strong> IRR of forward rate meaning that initially, a swap has a zero NPV <strong>to</strong><br />
both parties<br />
• The swap will take on a positive or negative value throughout its duration based on<br />
market rates at <strong>the</strong> time or valuation<br />
• Floating rate exposures can create volatility in interest expense<br />
• A swap <strong>to</strong> fixed can syn<strong>the</strong>tically convert floating rate exposure <strong>to</strong> a fixed rate<br />
• Benefits include:<br />
− Predictable interest expense<br />
− Can eliminate exposure <strong>to</strong> volatile movements in short term interest rates<br />
Rate<br />
= Forward rates<br />
Maturity<br />
Forward curve<br />
Fixed rate<br />
Indicative Swap Pricing for a $100mm 30-Year Swap that began August 1, 2007<br />
Floating<br />
Index<br />
Issuer<br />
Floating<br />
Rate Debt<br />
Fixed Rate<br />
Floating Index<br />
Bank of<br />
New York<br />
Mellon<br />
Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />
Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />
Notional:<br />
$100mm (no amortization)<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer pays fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer receives floating index on a monthly, actual/actual day count basis<br />
Floating Index<br />
Fixed Rate<br />
SIFMA 4.28%<br />
67% 1-M LIBOR 3.84%<br />
67% 5-Y CMS 4.02%<br />
Page 14
Example of Monthly Cash Flow for SIFMA Swap<br />
Swap Details<br />
This is an example of swap payment flows for a hypo<strong>the</strong>tical trade in August 2007.<br />
Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />
Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />
Notional:<br />
$100mm (no amortization)<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer receives SIFMA on a monthly, actual/actual day count basis<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 4.28% fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />
Floating Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />
PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />
END DATE: 09/01/07<br />
PERIOD DAY COUNT: Actual/Actual<br />
Fixed Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />
PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />
END DATE: 09/01/07<br />
PERIOD DAY COUNT: 30/360 Unadjusted<br />
ACTUAL # OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 31<br />
DATE TO # OF DAYS BMA RATES RESET DATE<br />
8/1/2007 08/02/07 1 3.61000 3.61000% 07/25/07 WED<br />
8/2/2007 08/09/07 7 3.52000 24.64000% 08/01/07 WED<br />
08/09/07 08/16/07 7 3.51000 24.57000% 08/08/07 WED<br />
08/16/07 08/23/07 7 3.69000 25.83000% 08/15/07 WED<br />
08/23/07 08/30/07 7 3.89000 27.23000% 08/22/07 WED<br />
08/30/07 09/01/07 2 3.95000 7.90000% 08/29/07 WED<br />
NUMBER OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 30<br />
SWAP FIXED RATE: 4.280%<br />
Issuer pays BK $100mm X 3.84% X 30 days / 360 days per year = $356,666.67<br />
# OF DAYS: 31 BMA Weighted: 3.67032%<br />
# OF RATES: 6 100% of BMA Weighted: 3.67032%<br />
BK pays Issuer $100mm X 3.67032% X 31 days / 365 days in year = $311,726.03<br />
Swap Payment Flows for August 2007<br />
Bank of New York Mellon Pays Tax-Exempt Issuer for month of August: $311,726.03<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer Pays Bank of New York Mellon for month of August: $356,666.67<br />
NET PAYMENT: Tax-Exempt Issuer pays BK $44,940.64.<br />
Page 15
Example of Monthly Cash Flow for 67% of 1-Month LIBOR Swap<br />
Swap Details<br />
This is an example of swap payment flows for a hypo<strong>the</strong>tical trade in August 2007.<br />
Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />
Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />
Notional:<br />
$100mm (no amortization)<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer receives 67% of 1-month LIBOR on a monthly, actual/actual day count basis<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 3.84% fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />
Floating Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />
PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />
END DATE: 09/01/07<br />
PERIOD DAY COUNT: Actual/Actual<br />
Fixed Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />
PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />
END DATE: 09/01/07<br />
PERIOD DAY COUNT: 30/360 Unadjusted<br />
ACTUAL # OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 31<br />
DATE TO # OF DAYS LIBOR RATES RESET DATE<br />
8/1/2007 08/02/07 1 5.32000 5.32000% 07/25/07 WED<br />
8/2/2007 08/09/07 7 5.32750 37.29250% 08/01/07 WED<br />
08/09/07 08/16/07 7 5.35000 37.45000% 08/08/07 WED<br />
08/16/07 08/23/07 7 5.56938 38.98566% 08/15/07 WED<br />
08/23/07 08/30/07 7 5.50000 38.50000% 08/22/07 WED<br />
08/30/07 09/01/07 2 5.56500 11.13000% 08/29/07 WED<br />
NUMBER OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 30<br />
SWAP FIXED RATE: 4.020%<br />
Issuer pays BK $100mm X 3.84% X 30 days / 360 days per year = $320,000.00<br />
# OF DAYS: 31 1-Month LIBOR Weighted: 5.44123%<br />
# OF RATES: 6 67% of 1-Month LIBOR Weighted: 3.64562%<br />
Page 16<br />
BK pays Issuer $100mm X 3.64562% X 31 days / 365 days in year= $309,628.40<br />
Swap Payment Flows for August 2007<br />
Bank of New York Mellon Pays Tax-Exempt Issuer for month of August: $309,628.40<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer Pays Bank of New York Mellon for month of August: $320,000.00<br />
NET PAYMENT: Tax-Exempt Issuer pays BK $10,375.60.
Example of Monthly Cash Flow for<br />
67% of 5-Year LIBOR Swap<br />
Swap Details<br />
This is an example of swap payment flows for a hypo<strong>the</strong>tical trade in August 2007.<br />
Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />
Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />
Notional:<br />
$100mm (no amortization)<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer receives 67% of 5-year LIBOR on a monthly, actual/actual day count basis<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 4.02% fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />
Floating Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />
PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />
END DATE: 09/01/07<br />
PERIOD DAY COUNT: Actual/Actual<br />
Fixed Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />
PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />
END DATE: 09/01/07<br />
PERIOD DAY COUNT: 30/360 Unadjusted<br />
ACTUAL # OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 31<br />
DATE TO # OF DAYS CMS RATES RESET DATE<br />
8/1/2007 08/02/07 1 5.40450 5.40450% 07/25/07 WED<br />
8/2/2007 08/09/07 7 5.30100 37.10700% 08/01/07 WED<br />
08/09/07 08/16/07 7 5.31550 37.20850% 08/08/07 WED<br />
08/16/07 08/23/07 7 5.17250 36.20750% 08/15/07 WED<br />
08/23/07 08/30/07 7 5.08750 35.61250% 08/22/07 WED<br />
08/30/07 09/01/07 2 5.01850 10.03700% 08/29/07 WED<br />
NUMBER OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 30<br />
SWAP FIXED RATE: 4.020%<br />
Issuer pays BK $100mm X 4.02% X 30 days / 360 days per year = $335,000.00<br />
# OF DAYS: 31 5-Year CMS Weighted: 5.21216%<br />
# OF RATES: 6 67% of 5-Year CMS Weighted: 3.49215%<br />
BK pays Issuer $100mm X 3.49215% X 31 days / 365 days in year= $296,593.40<br />
Swap Payment Flows for August 2007<br />
Bank of New York Mellon Pays Tax-Exempt Issuer for month of August: $296,593.40<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer Pays Bank of New York Mellon for month of August: $335,000.00<br />
NET PAYMENT: Tax-Exempt Issuer pays BK $38,406.60.<br />
Page 17
Interest Rate Management - Pros & Cons of Utilizing<br />
Alternative Indices<br />
Variable Leg<br />
Advantages (Hedges)<br />
Disadvantages (Does not hedge)<br />
BMA Index<br />
Percentage of LIBOR<br />
(LIBOR*)<br />
Percentage of<br />
5 year CMS (CMS*)<br />
Interest Rate Risk<br />
Federal Tax Exemption risk<br />
Interest Rate Risk<br />
Provides additional pick-up over<br />
BMA based swap<br />
Interest Rate Risk<br />
Assuming a traditional upward<br />
sloping yield curve environment<br />
most cost-effective and provides<br />
additional pick-up over percentage<br />
of LIBOR swap<br />
Most expensive<br />
State Tax Exemption<br />
Basis risk between BMA and actual issuer<br />
specific reset rate<br />
Federal and State Tax Exemption<br />
Basis risk between LIBOR* and actual<br />
issuer specific reset rate<br />
Federal and State Tax Exemption<br />
Basis risk between CMS* and actual issuer<br />
specific reset rate<br />
If <strong>the</strong> yield curve inverts <strong>the</strong>re could be<br />
additional costs.<br />
Page 18
Section III.<br />
How <strong>to</strong> rebalance existing CMS swaps in <strong>the</strong> current market<br />
environment <strong>to</strong> deal with “negative carry”
Stepped 67% of 5-Year CMS (LIBOR) Swap<br />
CMS Swap Mechanics<br />
Issuer<br />
3.84%<br />
67% of 5-Yr LIBOR X Coefficient<br />
Bank of New<br />
York<br />
Floating<br />
Rate<br />
Bondholders<br />
Proposed Basis Swap Overlay<br />
Start Date: 8/1/2007<br />
End Date: 8/1/2037<br />
Notional: $100mm (no amortization)<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 3.84%, monthly, 30/360 unadjusted<br />
BK pays 67% of 5-year CMS multiplied by <strong>the</strong> following coefficients, monthly, actual/360:<br />
Year Coefficient % of 5-Year LIBOR<br />
Year 1: 1.20 80.40%<br />
Year 2: 1.11 74.37%<br />
Year 3: 1.05 70.35%<br />
Year 4: 1.01 67.67%<br />
Year 5: 1.00 67.00%<br />
Year 6: 0.90 60.30%<br />
Year 7: 0.86 57.62%<br />
Year 8: 0.83 55.61%<br />
Year 9: 0.80 53.60%<br />
Years 10+: 0.77 51.59%<br />
Page 20
Overlay Stepped CMS Basis Swap<br />
Step CMS Swap is Expected <strong>to</strong> Produce Positive Revenue while mitigating risk of Negative Carry<br />
• These numbers are generated by a BK internal proprietary statistical model<br />
and assures within a 95% confidence interval that <strong>the</strong> trade should<br />
not result in negative cash flow on a cumulative, yearly basis. We<br />
used a mean-reverting model calibrated <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> previous 17 years of<br />
LIBOR/swap rate data. The model's results assume his<strong>to</strong>rical term-structure<br />
dynamics found within this his<strong>to</strong>rical period will continue <strong>to</strong> hold going<br />
forward.<br />
• In order <strong>to</strong> come up with <strong>the</strong>se coefficients we ran a Monte Carlo analysis using<br />
data that goes back <strong>to</strong> late 1980's and projecting 25,000 scenario paths going <strong>to</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> maturity of <strong>the</strong> trade. 97% of <strong>the</strong> generated paths produced no negative<br />
cash flow on a cumulative, annual basis.<br />
• According <strong>to</strong> our model, at <strong>the</strong> end of <strong>the</strong> maturity of <strong>the</strong> proposed basis swap:<br />
– The expected future revenue of <strong>the</strong> basis swap is $29,349,000.<br />
– 97% of <strong>the</strong> paths generated have resulted in positive cumulative future<br />
cash flow.<br />
Page 21
Example of Monthly Cash Flow for<br />
67% of 5-Year LIBOR Swap<br />
Swap Details<br />
This is an example of a swap payment flows for a hypo<strong>the</strong>tical trade in August 2007.<br />
Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />
Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />
Notional:<br />
$100mm(no amortization)<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer receives 67% of 5-year LIBOR times a coefficient on a monthly, A/A basis<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 3.84% fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />
Year Coefficient % of 5-Year CMS<br />
Year 1: 1.20 80.40%<br />
Year 2: 1.11 74.37%<br />
Year 3: 1.05 70.35%<br />
Year 4: 1.01 67.67%<br />
Year 5: 1.00 67.00%<br />
Year 6: 0.90 60.30%<br />
Year 7: 0.86 57.62%<br />
Year 8: 0.83 55.61%<br />
Year 9: 0.80 53.60%<br />
Years 10+: 0.77 51.59%<br />
Floating Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />
PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />
END DATE: 09/01/07<br />
PERIOD DAY COUNT: Actual/Actual<br />
ACTUAL # OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 31<br />
DATE TO # OF DAYS LIBOR RATES RESET DATE<br />
8/1/2007 08/02/07 1 5.40450 5.40450% 07/25/07 WED<br />
8/2/2007 08/09/07 7 5.30100 37.10700% 08/01/07 WED<br />
08/09/07 08/16/07 7 5.31550 37.20850% 08/08/07 WED<br />
08/16/07 08/23/07 7 5.17250 36.20750% 08/15/07 WED<br />
08/23/07 08/30/07 7 5.08750 35.61250% 08/22/07 WED<br />
08/30/07 09/01/07 2 5.01850 10.03700% 08/29/07 WED<br />
Fixed Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />
PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />
END DATE: 09/01/07<br />
PERIOD DAY COUNT: 30/360 Unadjusted<br />
NUMBER OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 30<br />
SWAP FIXED RATE: 3.840%<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer pays BK $100mm X 3.84% X 30 days / 360 days in year = $320,000.00<br />
# OF DAYS: 31 5-Year CMS Weighted: 5.21216%<br />
# OF RATES: 6 1.20 * 67% of 5-Year CMS +10 bps: 4.29058%<br />
BK pays Tax-Exempt $100mm X 4.29058% X 31 days / 365 days in year = $364,405.42<br />
Swap Payment Flows for August 2007<br />
Bank of New York Mellon Pays Tax-Exempt Issuer for month of August: $364,405.42<br />
Tax-Exempt Issuer Pays Bank of New York Mellon for month of August: $320,000.00<br />
NET PAYMENT: BK pays Tax-Exempt Issuer $44,405.42.<br />
Page 22
Section IV.<br />
What are some of <strong>the</strong> reasons BMA vs. LIBOR swaps move?
Cash Market vs. Swap Market<br />
• The relationship between <strong>the</strong> cash market and <strong>the</strong> swap market has shifted due <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
creation of Municipal Structured Products over <strong>the</strong> last 2-years.<br />
April 2006<br />
4.80%<br />
4.60%<br />
4.40%<br />
4.20%<br />
4.00%<br />
3.80%<br />
3.60%<br />
3.40%<br />
3.20%<br />
3.00%<br />
MMD Tax-Exempt Yield Curve vs. BMA and 67% of LIBOR<br />
Swap Curves<br />
VRDB1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30<br />
Sources: BNY Capital Markets, Inc., The Bank of New York, Municipal Market Data<br />
MMD "AAA" BMA Swap Rate 67% of LIBOR<br />
September 2007<br />
MMD Tax-Exempt Yield Curve versus BMA and 67% of LIBOR<br />
Swap Curves<br />
4.80%<br />
4.60%<br />
4.40%<br />
4.20%<br />
4.00%<br />
3.80%<br />
3.60%<br />
3.40%<br />
3.20%<br />
3.00%<br />
VRDB1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30<br />
MMD "AAA" BMA Swap Rate 67% of LIBOR<br />
Sources: BNY Capital Markets, Inc., The Bank of New York, Municipal Market Data<br />
• In April 2006, 10-Year BMA swap rates were 45 basis points higher than 10-year 67% of<br />
1-month LIBOR rates.<br />
• Today, BMA swap rates are approximately 35 basis points higher.<br />
• The demand for municipal structured products by inves<strong>to</strong>rs has made BMA fixed payer<br />
swaps more attractive for municipal issuers.<br />
Page 24
BMA/LIBOR Ratios<br />
BMA/LIBOR ratios are influenced by demand for municipal structured products<br />
10-Year BMA Swap Ratio<br />
The creation of structured notes<br />
have driven <strong>the</strong> BMA/LIBOR<br />
ratio lower<br />
Page 25<br />
Source: Bloomberg
A Typical Structured Note Issued in <strong>the</strong> Marketplace<br />
• 8% + 10 * (65% of 1-month LIBOR – SIFMA)<br />
• Capped at 8.50%<br />
• Floored at 0%<br />
• 10-year maturity<br />
• The average coupon would have been 7.20% if this note was launched in <strong>the</strong> last<br />
13 years.<br />
• If tax rates fall below 35%, SIFMA would be higher than <strong>the</strong> constant 65%<br />
LIBOR. This would lower <strong>the</strong> coupon on <strong>the</strong> notes, potentially resulting in a zero<br />
coupon note.<br />
• Dealers need <strong>to</strong> receive percentage of LIBOR and pay BMA in order <strong>to</strong> hedge <strong>the</strong><br />
resulting exposure in <strong>the</strong>se notes.<br />
Page 26
Dealers Need <strong>to</strong> Receive Percentage of LIBOR and Pay BMA<br />
in Order <strong>to</strong> Hedge <strong>the</strong> Resulting Exposure in These Notes<br />
Bank of New<br />
York Mellon<br />
% of LIBOR<br />
BMA<br />
Market<br />
Formula: Constant + multiplier * (65% LIBOR – BMA)<br />
Inves<strong>to</strong>r<br />
Page 27
Section V.<br />
Relationship Contacts
Relationship Contacts<br />
Tax Exempt Derivatives Team<br />
Marko Issever<br />
Managing Direc<strong>to</strong>r<br />
mjissever@bankofny.com<br />
Timothy Comerford<br />
Vice President<br />
tcomerford@bankofny.com<br />
Martin Woros<br />
Vice President<br />
mworos@bankofny.com<br />
Casey Kutner<br />
Vice President<br />
ckutner@bankofny.com<br />
Phone: 1-212-804-2137 Fax: 212-495-1015/16<br />
Websites<br />
www.bankofny.com<br />
http:// globalmarkets.bankofny.com or http://gm.bankofny.com<br />
This document has been prepared solely for informational and discussion purposes, for private circulation, and is not an offer or solicitation <strong>to</strong> buy or sell any<br />
financial product or <strong>to</strong> participate in any particular strategy. The Bank of New York Mellon, and its broker dealer affiliates, may have long or short positions in<br />
any currency, derivative or instrument discussed herein. The Bank of New York Mellon has included data in this document from information generally<br />
available <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> public from sources believed <strong>to</strong> be reliable. Any price or o<strong>the</strong>r data used for illustrative purposes may not reflect actual current conditions.<br />
No re<strong>presentation</strong>s or warranties are made, and The Bank of New York Mellon assumes no liability, as <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> accuracy or completeness of any data. Price<br />
and o<strong>the</strong>r data are subject <strong>to</strong> change at any time without notice.<br />
Page 29