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Global Markets<br />

The Fifth Annual new England Public Finance<br />

Conference Bos<strong>to</strong>n, MA<br />

The Importance of Swap Pricing<br />

Marko Issever, Managing Direc<strong>to</strong>r<br />

Oc<strong>to</strong>ber 22-23 2007


Agenda<br />

I. Introduction <strong>to</strong> The Bank of New York Mellon<br />

II. Current Swap Opportunities<br />

III. How <strong>to</strong> rebalance existing CMS swaps in <strong>the</strong> current market environment<br />

IV. What are some of <strong>the</strong> reasons BMA vs. LIBOR swaps move?<br />

V. Relationship Contacts<br />

Page 2


Section I.<br />

Introduction <strong>to</strong> The Bank of New York Mellon


The Bank of New York Mellon<br />

• One of <strong>the</strong> largest U.S. bank<br />

holding companies<br />

• Average assets of $140 billion<br />

• $1 trillion in assets under<br />

management<br />

• Presence in 37 countries<br />

• Subcus<strong>to</strong>dian Network spanning more<br />

than 100 markets<br />

• Current market capitalization over<br />

$32 billion<br />

• $18 trillion under cus<strong>to</strong>dy and<br />

administration worldwide<br />

• The nation’s oldest bank, founded by<br />

Alexander Hamil<strong>to</strong>n in 1784<br />

Page 4


Over<strong>view</strong> of Derivatives Capabilities<br />

Bank of New York Mellon’s Strengths<br />

• Major dealer in a broad range of derivative<br />

products (interest rates, FX, and equity)<br />

• Strong credit rating; Moody’s: Aaa, S&P: AA-<br />

• Consultative sales approach – client driven<br />

business<br />

• Market leadership in OTC options and<br />

structured products<br />

• BK is a market leader in Bermuda options<br />

market<br />

• Robust client risk management<br />

Key Takeaways<br />

• BK is a global leader in derivatives<br />

• BK provides risk management structuring and<br />

solution ideas<br />

• BK is a highly rated derivative (Aaa, AA-) and<br />

provides competitive pricing<br />

• BK provides information flow, advice and<br />

counterparty diversity<br />

Breadth of Products<br />

• Tax Exempt Swaps and Options<br />

• Taxable Indices – Libor Based Percentage<br />

Swaps Applied <strong>to</strong> Tax-Exempt Market<br />

• Basis Swaps – BMA, CP, Fed Funds,<br />

LIBOR, Prime, T-Bill<br />

• Interest Rate Swaps & Treasury Locks<br />

• Swaptions and Forward Rate Agreements<br />

• Cross Currency Swaps<br />

• Interest Rate Options - Simple & Exotic<br />

• OTC Treasury Options<br />

• Equity Derivatives<br />

Page 5


Section II.<br />

Current Swap Opportunities


Benefits of Swaps and Derivatives<br />

• Swaps enable issuers and inves<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> make efficient financial decisions.<br />

• Most often, it will be advantageous <strong>to</strong> execute a transaction ei<strong>the</strong>r purely in<br />

<strong>the</strong> “cash market’ or syn<strong>the</strong>tically in <strong>the</strong> “cash and derivative markets”.<br />

• Derivatives can be used in two ways:<br />

Arbitrage<br />

Hedging<br />

Cash Flow matched<br />

Statistical<br />

Perfect<br />

Close but imperfect<br />

Perfect<br />

Close but imperfect<br />

Page 7


Interest Rate Management – Issuance Hedging<br />

Forward Starting Interest Rate Swap (Cash flows at start of forward date)<br />

Today, Issuer and Counterparty enter in<strong>to</strong> forward starting interest rate swap<br />

All documentation and terms of <strong>the</strong> swap are put in<strong>to</strong> place <strong>to</strong>day<br />

Forward start date <strong>to</strong> match expected fixed rate bond issuance date<br />

Embedded forward premium is cost of <strong>the</strong> hedge<br />

Timeline<br />

Execute Swap <strong>to</strong><br />

lock in forward<br />

fixed rate swap<br />

Option 1: Issue fixed<br />

rate bonds and<br />

terminate swap<br />

or<br />

Option 2: Issue floating<br />

rate bonds and swap<br />

payments begin<br />

Tax-Exempt<br />

Issuer<br />

Fixed Swap Rate<br />

Floating Index (BMA, %of<br />

Libor)<br />

The Bank of<br />

New York<br />

Mellon<br />

Swap and<br />

bonds mature<br />

Today<br />

Option 1 – Issue fixed and terminate swap:<br />

If rates rise, <strong>the</strong> swap is in-<strong>the</strong>-money. The cash received from <strong>the</strong> unwind offsets <strong>the</strong> higher issuing cost.<br />

If rates decline, <strong>the</strong> swap is out-of-<strong>the</strong> money. The all-in cost for <strong>the</strong> issuance will be in line with <strong>the</strong> forward swap rate.<br />

Option 2 – Issue floating and leave swap outstanding:<br />

If issuing <strong>the</strong> fixed rate is less advantageous, <strong>the</strong> fixed rate term funding could be syn<strong>the</strong>tically achieved by leaving <strong>the</strong> swap<br />

intact and issuing floating.<br />

Page 8<br />

Issue Date and Swap Effective Date<br />

Indicative Forward Starting Swap Pricing – Based on 67% of 1-Month LIBOR (as of 9/20/07)<br />

5-Year Swaps<br />

10-Year Swaps<br />

30-Year Swaps<br />

Start Date/<br />

Lock Period Forward Rate Spot Rate Premium Forward Rate Spot Rate Premium Forward Rate Spot Rate Premium<br />

3-Months 3.271% 3.271% 0.000% 3.511% 3.503% 0.008% 3.688% 3.686% 0.003%<br />

6-Months 3.290% 3.271% 0.019% 3.526% 3.503% 0.023% 3.696% 3.686% 0.010%<br />

12-Months 3.355% 3.271% 0.084% 3.574% 3.503% 0.072% 3.719% 3.686% 0.033%<br />

Maturity


Flexible Start Date Swap<br />

Situation<br />

An issuer would like <strong>to</strong> hedge its interest rate exposure associated with a planned debt<br />

issuance <strong>to</strong> fund a capital project. The problem is that <strong>the</strong> project start date and debt issuance<br />

timing is not certain, but will occur from 2 <strong>to</strong> 6 months from <strong>to</strong>day. This makes it difficult <strong>to</strong><br />

effectively hedge <strong>the</strong> interest rate exposure associated with <strong>the</strong> debt issuance.<br />

Solution<br />

Issuers can lock in a fixed rate with a swap with a flexible start<br />

date <strong>to</strong> hedge a debt issuance with an uncertain closing date.<br />

Under <strong>the</strong> terms of <strong>the</strong> swap, <strong>the</strong> issuer pays fixed and<br />

receives 67% of 1-month LIBOR on a monthly basis.<br />

The future interest cost of project is locked in <strong>to</strong>day and can<br />

be accurately forecasted over <strong>the</strong> life of <strong>the</strong> project without yet<br />

knowing <strong>the</strong> exact starting date of <strong>the</strong> project.<br />

Today’s flat yield curve environment allows for locking in <strong>the</strong><br />

future interest expense at a relatively low cost <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> issuer.<br />

Indicative Pricing for a Flexible Start Date Swap<br />

Start Date of Sw ap w ill be from 2 <strong>to</strong> 6 months<br />

Notional<br />

$50mm Amortizing<br />

Sw ap Start Date<br />

2-months <strong>to</strong> 6-months<br />

Sw ap End Date<br />

30-Years<br />

Floating Rate Index for Sw ap<br />

67% of LIBOR<br />

Fixed Sw ap Rate for Sw ap starting in 2-months 3.687%<br />

Fixed Sw ap Rate for Sw ap starting in 6-months 3.696%<br />

Flexible Start Date Sw ap Rate (Starts in 2 <strong>to</strong> 6 months) 3.72%<br />

Client enters in<strong>to</strong><br />

Flexible Starting<br />

Swap<br />

Client Exercises<br />

Swap<br />

Exercise Window<br />

Today 2-Months 6-Months*<br />

Swap Rate is<br />

Locked in<br />

First Day Swap<br />

Can be exercised.<br />

Last day of window.<br />

*Swap must be exercised by this date.<br />

Page 9


Issue Tax-Exempt Fixed or Swap <strong>to</strong> Fixed?<br />

In <strong>the</strong> current market environment, it is attractive <strong>to</strong> issue floating rate debt and<br />

syn<strong>the</strong>tically swap <strong>the</strong> debt <strong>to</strong> fixed.<br />

4.80%<br />

4.60%<br />

4.40%<br />

4.20%<br />

4.00%<br />

3.80%<br />

3.60%<br />

3.40%<br />

3.20%<br />

3.00%<br />

MMD Tax-Exempt Yield Curve versus SIFMA and 67% of<br />

LIBOR Swap Curves<br />

VRDB 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30<br />

MMD "AAA" SIFMA Swap Rate 67% of LIBOR<br />

Sources: BNY Capital Markets, Inc., The Bank of New York, Municipal Market Data<br />

Page 10<br />

Tenor 5 10 15 20 25 30<br />

Issue Tax-Exempt Fixed 3.63% 3.96% 4.29% 4.47% 4.58% 4.62%<br />

SIFMA Swap 3.48% 3.80% 4.00% 4.11% 4.15% 4.20%<br />

Difference Vs. Issue Fixed -0.15% -0.16% -0.29% -0.36% -0.43% -0.42%<br />

67% of LIBOR Swap 3.23% 3.45% 3.55% 3.59% 3.60% 3.60%<br />

Difference vs. Issue Fixed -0.40% -0.51% -0.74% -0.88% -0.98% -1.02%


Issue Tax-Exempt Fixed or Swap <strong>to</strong> Fixed?<br />

• As a result of <strong>the</strong> Fed tightening cycle<br />

which began in mid-2004 and strong<br />

demand by foreign inves<strong>to</strong>rs for longdated<br />

US Treasuries, <strong>the</strong> LIBOR swap<br />

curve has flattened considerably.<br />

• Spread between 2-Year and 30-Year<br />

LIBOR swap rates (a measure of <strong>the</strong><br />

curve’s “steepness”) has declined from<br />

over 375 bps July 2003 and is<br />

approximately 86 bps <strong>to</strong>day.<br />

• The “flatness” of <strong>the</strong> LIBOR swap<br />

curve has approached current levels<br />

for only brief periods over <strong>the</strong> past 10<br />

years.<br />

• This flatness provides an Issuer with<br />

an opportunity <strong>to</strong> enhance its existing<br />

or new swap structures by going<br />

fur<strong>the</strong>r out on <strong>the</strong> yield curve using a<br />

Constant Maturity Swap (CMS).<br />

His<strong>to</strong>rical LIBOR-Based Swap Yield Curves<br />

6.00<br />

September 2006<br />

5.00<br />

September 2007<br />

4.00 September 2005<br />

3.00<br />

2.00 September 2004<br />

1.00<br />

1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr 15yr 20yr 30yr<br />

400<br />

350<br />

300<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

0<br />

-50<br />

His<strong>to</strong>rical Spread between 2Yr-30 Yr Swap Rates<br />

9/20/94<br />

9/20/95<br />

9/20/96<br />

9/20/97<br />

9/20/98<br />

9/20/99<br />

9/20/00<br />

9/20/01<br />

9/20/02<br />

9/20/03<br />

9/20/04<br />

9/20/05<br />

9/20/06<br />

9/20/07<br />

Page 11


What is a CMS Swap?<br />

CMS Swap Mechanics<br />

• In a CMS Swap based on <strong>the</strong> LIBOR index, an issuer receives a percentage of term LIBOR (such as a percentage of<br />

10-Year LIBOR, <strong>the</strong> 10-year constant maturity for LIBOR) instead of receiving a percentage of 1-Month LIBOR.<br />

• Identical <strong>to</strong> swaps based on 1-Month LIBOR, <strong>the</strong> variable rate index (percentage of 10-Year LIBOR) will be reset on any<br />

desirable frequency.<br />

Bondholders<br />

Issuer<br />

Fixed<br />

Rate<br />

Bank of New<br />

York Mellon<br />

Actual Auction<br />

Rate<br />

% of 10-Year LIBOR<br />

Execute CMS Transactions in Flat Curve Environment and Benefit When Curve Steepens<br />

Yield (%)<br />

8.00<br />

Current Flat Yield Curve Environment<br />

Yield (%)<br />

8.00<br />

Traditional Steep Yield Curve<br />

7.00<br />

6.00<br />

10-Year LIBOR<br />

7.00<br />

6.00<br />

CMS<br />

Benefit<br />

10-Year LIBOR<br />

5.00<br />

5.00<br />

4.00<br />

1-month LIBOR<br />

1m 3m 1yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr<br />

Maturity<br />

4.00<br />

1-month LIBOR<br />

1 m 3m 1yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr<br />

Maturity<br />

Page 12


Considerations of Utilizing CMS<br />

Benefits<br />

• A CMS provides economic benefit during periods<br />

when <strong>the</strong> yield curve is normally shaped (upward<br />

sloping)<br />

• A CMS adds diversification <strong>to</strong> an Issuer’s swap<br />

portfolio<br />

Considerations<br />

• The primary risk associated with LIBOR CMS is <strong>the</strong><br />

long-term continuation of a flat or inversion of <strong>the</strong><br />

LIBOR curve (long term rates are lower than short<br />

term rates)<br />

• Will not qualify for hedge accounting.<br />

• A CMS enhancement has his<strong>to</strong>rically mitigated<br />

“compression” risk often experienced in low interest<br />

rate environments<br />

His<strong>to</strong>rical Comparison of <strong>the</strong> 10-Year Treasury vs. <strong>the</strong> 3-Month Treasury Bill<br />

23.0<br />

19.0<br />

15.0<br />

11.0<br />

7.0<br />

3.0<br />

(1.0)<br />

(5.0)<br />

Page 13<br />

Spread 3m T-bill 10yr Treasury<br />

CMS transactions<br />

mitigated basis risk during<br />

<strong>the</strong> recent yield<br />

compression period<br />

04/02/62 05/21/66 07/09/70 08/27/74 10/15/78 12/03/82 01/22/87 03/12/91 04/30/95 06/18/99 08/06/03 09/24/07<br />

24.0<br />

20.0<br />

16.0<br />

12.0<br />

8.0<br />

4.0<br />

0.0<br />

(4.0)


Plain Vanilla Interest Rate Swap Mechanics<br />

Interest Rate Swap<br />

• A swap is priced in order <strong>to</strong> equate <strong>the</strong> fixed rate payments <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> expected floating<br />

rate payments<br />

− PV floating = PV fixed<br />

• Floating rate cash flows are calculated from <strong>the</strong> market’s expectations of a forward<br />

interest curve<br />

• Fixed rate is <strong>the</strong> IRR of forward rate meaning that initially, a swap has a zero NPV <strong>to</strong><br />

both parties<br />

• The swap will take on a positive or negative value throughout its duration based on<br />

market rates at <strong>the</strong> time or valuation<br />

• Floating rate exposures can create volatility in interest expense<br />

• A swap <strong>to</strong> fixed can syn<strong>the</strong>tically convert floating rate exposure <strong>to</strong> a fixed rate<br />

• Benefits include:<br />

− Predictable interest expense<br />

− Can eliminate exposure <strong>to</strong> volatile movements in short term interest rates<br />

Rate<br />

= Forward rates<br />

Maturity<br />

Forward curve<br />

Fixed rate<br />

Indicative Swap Pricing for a $100mm 30-Year Swap that began August 1, 2007<br />

Floating<br />

Index<br />

Issuer<br />

Floating<br />

Rate Debt<br />

Fixed Rate<br />

Floating Index<br />

Bank of<br />

New York<br />

Mellon<br />

Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />

Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />

Notional:<br />

$100mm (no amortization)<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer pays fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer receives floating index on a monthly, actual/actual day count basis<br />

Floating Index<br />

Fixed Rate<br />

SIFMA 4.28%<br />

67% 1-M LIBOR 3.84%<br />

67% 5-Y CMS 4.02%<br />

Page 14


Example of Monthly Cash Flow for SIFMA Swap<br />

Swap Details<br />

This is an example of swap payment flows for a hypo<strong>the</strong>tical trade in August 2007.<br />

Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />

Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />

Notional:<br />

$100mm (no amortization)<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer receives SIFMA on a monthly, actual/actual day count basis<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 4.28% fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />

Floating Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />

PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />

END DATE: 09/01/07<br />

PERIOD DAY COUNT: Actual/Actual<br />

Fixed Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />

PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />

END DATE: 09/01/07<br />

PERIOD DAY COUNT: 30/360 Unadjusted<br />

ACTUAL # OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 31<br />

DATE TO # OF DAYS BMA RATES RESET DATE<br />

8/1/2007 08/02/07 1 3.61000 3.61000% 07/25/07 WED<br />

8/2/2007 08/09/07 7 3.52000 24.64000% 08/01/07 WED<br />

08/09/07 08/16/07 7 3.51000 24.57000% 08/08/07 WED<br />

08/16/07 08/23/07 7 3.69000 25.83000% 08/15/07 WED<br />

08/23/07 08/30/07 7 3.89000 27.23000% 08/22/07 WED<br />

08/30/07 09/01/07 2 3.95000 7.90000% 08/29/07 WED<br />

NUMBER OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 30<br />

SWAP FIXED RATE: 4.280%<br />

Issuer pays BK $100mm X 3.84% X 30 days / 360 days per year = $356,666.67<br />

# OF DAYS: 31 BMA Weighted: 3.67032%<br />

# OF RATES: 6 100% of BMA Weighted: 3.67032%<br />

BK pays Issuer $100mm X 3.67032% X 31 days / 365 days in year = $311,726.03<br />

Swap Payment Flows for August 2007<br />

Bank of New York Mellon Pays Tax-Exempt Issuer for month of August: $311,726.03<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer Pays Bank of New York Mellon for month of August: $356,666.67<br />

NET PAYMENT: Tax-Exempt Issuer pays BK $44,940.64.<br />

Page 15


Example of Monthly Cash Flow for 67% of 1-Month LIBOR Swap<br />

Swap Details<br />

This is an example of swap payment flows for a hypo<strong>the</strong>tical trade in August 2007.<br />

Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />

Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />

Notional:<br />

$100mm (no amortization)<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer receives 67% of 1-month LIBOR on a monthly, actual/actual day count basis<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 3.84% fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />

Floating Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />

PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />

END DATE: 09/01/07<br />

PERIOD DAY COUNT: Actual/Actual<br />

Fixed Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />

PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />

END DATE: 09/01/07<br />

PERIOD DAY COUNT: 30/360 Unadjusted<br />

ACTUAL # OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 31<br />

DATE TO # OF DAYS LIBOR RATES RESET DATE<br />

8/1/2007 08/02/07 1 5.32000 5.32000% 07/25/07 WED<br />

8/2/2007 08/09/07 7 5.32750 37.29250% 08/01/07 WED<br />

08/09/07 08/16/07 7 5.35000 37.45000% 08/08/07 WED<br />

08/16/07 08/23/07 7 5.56938 38.98566% 08/15/07 WED<br />

08/23/07 08/30/07 7 5.50000 38.50000% 08/22/07 WED<br />

08/30/07 09/01/07 2 5.56500 11.13000% 08/29/07 WED<br />

NUMBER OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 30<br />

SWAP FIXED RATE: 4.020%<br />

Issuer pays BK $100mm X 3.84% X 30 days / 360 days per year = $320,000.00<br />

# OF DAYS: 31 1-Month LIBOR Weighted: 5.44123%<br />

# OF RATES: 6 67% of 1-Month LIBOR Weighted: 3.64562%<br />

Page 16<br />

BK pays Issuer $100mm X 3.64562% X 31 days / 365 days in year= $309,628.40<br />

Swap Payment Flows for August 2007<br />

Bank of New York Mellon Pays Tax-Exempt Issuer for month of August: $309,628.40<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer Pays Bank of New York Mellon for month of August: $320,000.00<br />

NET PAYMENT: Tax-Exempt Issuer pays BK $10,375.60.


Example of Monthly Cash Flow for<br />

67% of 5-Year LIBOR Swap<br />

Swap Details<br />

This is an example of swap payment flows for a hypo<strong>the</strong>tical trade in August 2007.<br />

Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />

Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />

Notional:<br />

$100mm (no amortization)<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer receives 67% of 5-year LIBOR on a monthly, actual/actual day count basis<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 4.02% fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />

Floating Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />

PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />

END DATE: 09/01/07<br />

PERIOD DAY COUNT: Actual/Actual<br />

Fixed Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />

PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />

END DATE: 09/01/07<br />

PERIOD DAY COUNT: 30/360 Unadjusted<br />

ACTUAL # OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 31<br />

DATE TO # OF DAYS CMS RATES RESET DATE<br />

8/1/2007 08/02/07 1 5.40450 5.40450% 07/25/07 WED<br />

8/2/2007 08/09/07 7 5.30100 37.10700% 08/01/07 WED<br />

08/09/07 08/16/07 7 5.31550 37.20850% 08/08/07 WED<br />

08/16/07 08/23/07 7 5.17250 36.20750% 08/15/07 WED<br />

08/23/07 08/30/07 7 5.08750 35.61250% 08/22/07 WED<br />

08/30/07 09/01/07 2 5.01850 10.03700% 08/29/07 WED<br />

NUMBER OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 30<br />

SWAP FIXED RATE: 4.020%<br />

Issuer pays BK $100mm X 4.02% X 30 days / 360 days per year = $335,000.00<br />

# OF DAYS: 31 5-Year CMS Weighted: 5.21216%<br />

# OF RATES: 6 67% of 5-Year CMS Weighted: 3.49215%<br />

BK pays Issuer $100mm X 3.49215% X 31 days / 365 days in year= $296,593.40<br />

Swap Payment Flows for August 2007<br />

Bank of New York Mellon Pays Tax-Exempt Issuer for month of August: $296,593.40<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer Pays Bank of New York Mellon for month of August: $335,000.00<br />

NET PAYMENT: Tax-Exempt Issuer pays BK $38,406.60.<br />

Page 17


Interest Rate Management - Pros & Cons of Utilizing<br />

Alternative Indices<br />

Variable Leg<br />

Advantages (Hedges)<br />

Disadvantages (Does not hedge)<br />

BMA Index<br />

Percentage of LIBOR<br />

(LIBOR*)<br />

Percentage of<br />

5 year CMS (CMS*)<br />

Interest Rate Risk<br />

Federal Tax Exemption risk<br />

Interest Rate Risk<br />

Provides additional pick-up over<br />

BMA based swap<br />

Interest Rate Risk<br />

Assuming a traditional upward<br />

sloping yield curve environment<br />

most cost-effective and provides<br />

additional pick-up over percentage<br />

of LIBOR swap<br />

Most expensive<br />

State Tax Exemption<br />

Basis risk between BMA and actual issuer<br />

specific reset rate<br />

Federal and State Tax Exemption<br />

Basis risk between LIBOR* and actual<br />

issuer specific reset rate<br />

Federal and State Tax Exemption<br />

Basis risk between CMS* and actual issuer<br />

specific reset rate<br />

If <strong>the</strong> yield curve inverts <strong>the</strong>re could be<br />

additional costs.<br />

Page 18


Section III.<br />

How <strong>to</strong> rebalance existing CMS swaps in <strong>the</strong> current market<br />

environment <strong>to</strong> deal with “negative carry”


Stepped 67% of 5-Year CMS (LIBOR) Swap<br />

CMS Swap Mechanics<br />

Issuer<br />

3.84%<br />

67% of 5-Yr LIBOR X Coefficient<br />

Bank of New<br />

York<br />

Floating<br />

Rate<br />

Bondholders<br />

Proposed Basis Swap Overlay<br />

Start Date: 8/1/2007<br />

End Date: 8/1/2037<br />

Notional: $100mm (no amortization)<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 3.84%, monthly, 30/360 unadjusted<br />

BK pays 67% of 5-year CMS multiplied by <strong>the</strong> following coefficients, monthly, actual/360:<br />

Year Coefficient % of 5-Year LIBOR<br />

Year 1: 1.20 80.40%<br />

Year 2: 1.11 74.37%<br />

Year 3: 1.05 70.35%<br />

Year 4: 1.01 67.67%<br />

Year 5: 1.00 67.00%<br />

Year 6: 0.90 60.30%<br />

Year 7: 0.86 57.62%<br />

Year 8: 0.83 55.61%<br />

Year 9: 0.80 53.60%<br />

Years 10+: 0.77 51.59%<br />

Page 20


Overlay Stepped CMS Basis Swap<br />

Step CMS Swap is Expected <strong>to</strong> Produce Positive Revenue while mitigating risk of Negative Carry<br />

• These numbers are generated by a BK internal proprietary statistical model<br />

and assures within a 95% confidence interval that <strong>the</strong> trade should<br />

not result in negative cash flow on a cumulative, yearly basis. We<br />

used a mean-reverting model calibrated <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> previous 17 years of<br />

LIBOR/swap rate data. The model's results assume his<strong>to</strong>rical term-structure<br />

dynamics found within this his<strong>to</strong>rical period will continue <strong>to</strong> hold going<br />

forward.<br />

• In order <strong>to</strong> come up with <strong>the</strong>se coefficients we ran a Monte Carlo analysis using<br />

data that goes back <strong>to</strong> late 1980's and projecting 25,000 scenario paths going <strong>to</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> maturity of <strong>the</strong> trade. 97% of <strong>the</strong> generated paths produced no negative<br />

cash flow on a cumulative, annual basis.<br />

• According <strong>to</strong> our model, at <strong>the</strong> end of <strong>the</strong> maturity of <strong>the</strong> proposed basis swap:<br />

– The expected future revenue of <strong>the</strong> basis swap is $29,349,000.<br />

– 97% of <strong>the</strong> paths generated have resulted in positive cumulative future<br />

cash flow.<br />

Page 21


Example of Monthly Cash Flow for<br />

67% of 5-Year LIBOR Swap<br />

Swap Details<br />

This is an example of a swap payment flows for a hypo<strong>the</strong>tical trade in August 2007.<br />

Swap Start Date: 8/1/07<br />

Swap End Date: 8/1/37<br />

Notional:<br />

$100mm(no amortization)<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer receives 67% of 5-year LIBOR times a coefficient on a monthly, A/A basis<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer pays 3.84% fixed on a monthly, 30/360 day count basis<br />

Year Coefficient % of 5-Year CMS<br />

Year 1: 1.20 80.40%<br />

Year 2: 1.11 74.37%<br />

Year 3: 1.05 70.35%<br />

Year 4: 1.01 67.67%<br />

Year 5: 1.00 67.00%<br />

Year 6: 0.90 60.30%<br />

Year 7: 0.86 57.62%<br />

Year 8: 0.83 55.61%<br />

Year 9: 0.80 53.60%<br />

Years 10+: 0.77 51.59%<br />

Floating Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />

PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />

END DATE: 09/01/07<br />

PERIOD DAY COUNT: Actual/Actual<br />

ACTUAL # OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 31<br />

DATE TO # OF DAYS LIBOR RATES RESET DATE<br />

8/1/2007 08/02/07 1 5.40450 5.40450% 07/25/07 WED<br />

8/2/2007 08/09/07 7 5.30100 37.10700% 08/01/07 WED<br />

08/09/07 08/16/07 7 5.31550 37.20850% 08/08/07 WED<br />

08/16/07 08/23/07 7 5.17250 36.20750% 08/15/07 WED<br />

08/23/07 08/30/07 7 5.08750 35.61250% 08/22/07 WED<br />

08/30/07 09/01/07 2 5.01850 10.03700% 08/29/07 WED<br />

Fixed Leg Interest Calculation – August 2007<br />

PERIOD START DATE: 08/01/07<br />

END DATE: 09/01/07<br />

PERIOD DAY COUNT: 30/360 Unadjusted<br />

NUMBER OF DAYS IN PERIOD: 30<br />

SWAP FIXED RATE: 3.840%<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer pays BK $100mm X 3.84% X 30 days / 360 days in year = $320,000.00<br />

# OF DAYS: 31 5-Year CMS Weighted: 5.21216%<br />

# OF RATES: 6 1.20 * 67% of 5-Year CMS +10 bps: 4.29058%<br />

BK pays Tax-Exempt $100mm X 4.29058% X 31 days / 365 days in year = $364,405.42<br />

Swap Payment Flows for August 2007<br />

Bank of New York Mellon Pays Tax-Exempt Issuer for month of August: $364,405.42<br />

Tax-Exempt Issuer Pays Bank of New York Mellon for month of August: $320,000.00<br />

NET PAYMENT: BK pays Tax-Exempt Issuer $44,405.42.<br />

Page 22


Section IV.<br />

What are some of <strong>the</strong> reasons BMA vs. LIBOR swaps move?


Cash Market vs. Swap Market<br />

• The relationship between <strong>the</strong> cash market and <strong>the</strong> swap market has shifted due <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

creation of Municipal Structured Products over <strong>the</strong> last 2-years.<br />

April 2006<br />

4.80%<br />

4.60%<br />

4.40%<br />

4.20%<br />

4.00%<br />

3.80%<br />

3.60%<br />

3.40%<br />

3.20%<br />

3.00%<br />

MMD Tax-Exempt Yield Curve vs. BMA and 67% of LIBOR<br />

Swap Curves<br />

VRDB1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30<br />

Sources: BNY Capital Markets, Inc., The Bank of New York, Municipal Market Data<br />

MMD "AAA" BMA Swap Rate 67% of LIBOR<br />

September 2007<br />

MMD Tax-Exempt Yield Curve versus BMA and 67% of LIBOR<br />

Swap Curves<br />

4.80%<br />

4.60%<br />

4.40%<br />

4.20%<br />

4.00%<br />

3.80%<br />

3.60%<br />

3.40%<br />

3.20%<br />

3.00%<br />

VRDB1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30<br />

MMD "AAA" BMA Swap Rate 67% of LIBOR<br />

Sources: BNY Capital Markets, Inc., The Bank of New York, Municipal Market Data<br />

• In April 2006, 10-Year BMA swap rates were 45 basis points higher than 10-year 67% of<br />

1-month LIBOR rates.<br />

• Today, BMA swap rates are approximately 35 basis points higher.<br />

• The demand for municipal structured products by inves<strong>to</strong>rs has made BMA fixed payer<br />

swaps more attractive for municipal issuers.<br />

Page 24


BMA/LIBOR Ratios<br />

BMA/LIBOR ratios are influenced by demand for municipal structured products<br />

10-Year BMA Swap Ratio<br />

The creation of structured notes<br />

have driven <strong>the</strong> BMA/LIBOR<br />

ratio lower<br />

Page 25<br />

Source: Bloomberg


A Typical Structured Note Issued in <strong>the</strong> Marketplace<br />

• 8% + 10 * (65% of 1-month LIBOR – SIFMA)<br />

• Capped at 8.50%<br />

• Floored at 0%<br />

• 10-year maturity<br />

• The average coupon would have been 7.20% if this note was launched in <strong>the</strong> last<br />

13 years.<br />

• If tax rates fall below 35%, SIFMA would be higher than <strong>the</strong> constant 65%<br />

LIBOR. This would lower <strong>the</strong> coupon on <strong>the</strong> notes, potentially resulting in a zero<br />

coupon note.<br />

• Dealers need <strong>to</strong> receive percentage of LIBOR and pay BMA in order <strong>to</strong> hedge <strong>the</strong><br />

resulting exposure in <strong>the</strong>se notes.<br />

Page 26


Dealers Need <strong>to</strong> Receive Percentage of LIBOR and Pay BMA<br />

in Order <strong>to</strong> Hedge <strong>the</strong> Resulting Exposure in These Notes<br />

Bank of New<br />

York Mellon<br />

% of LIBOR<br />

BMA<br />

Market<br />

Formula: Constant + multiplier * (65% LIBOR – BMA)<br />

Inves<strong>to</strong>r<br />

Page 27


Section V.<br />

Relationship Contacts


Relationship Contacts<br />

Tax Exempt Derivatives Team<br />

Marko Issever<br />

Managing Direc<strong>to</strong>r<br />

mjissever@bankofny.com<br />

Timothy Comerford<br />

Vice President<br />

tcomerford@bankofny.com<br />

Martin Woros<br />

Vice President<br />

mworos@bankofny.com<br />

Casey Kutner<br />

Vice President<br />

ckutner@bankofny.com<br />

Phone: 1-212-804-2137 Fax: 212-495-1015/16<br />

Websites<br />

www.bankofny.com<br />

http:// globalmarkets.bankofny.com or http://gm.bankofny.com<br />

This document has been prepared solely for informational and discussion purposes, for private circulation, and is not an offer or solicitation <strong>to</strong> buy or sell any<br />

financial product or <strong>to</strong> participate in any particular strategy. The Bank of New York Mellon, and its broker dealer affiliates, may have long or short positions in<br />

any currency, derivative or instrument discussed herein. The Bank of New York Mellon has included data in this document from information generally<br />

available <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> public from sources believed <strong>to</strong> be reliable. Any price or o<strong>the</strong>r data used for illustrative purposes may not reflect actual current conditions.<br />

No re<strong>presentation</strong>s or warranties are made, and The Bank of New York Mellon assumes no liability, as <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> accuracy or completeness of any data. Price<br />

and o<strong>the</strong>r data are subject <strong>to</strong> change at any time without notice.<br />

Page 29

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