The Global Use of Medicines - IMS Health

Key drivers of change
KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE
Patent expiries will reduce brand spending by $120Bn through 2015
Patent expiries will reduce brand spending by $120Bn through 201
Developed
Developed Markets
Markets
Patent
Patent
Expiries
Expiries
$171Bn
47
31
36 34
23
-14
-18
-26
-26
-35
• Patent
• Patent
expiries
expiries
will
will save
save
payers
payers
in
in Develope
markets
developed
$120Bn
markets
in
$120Bn
the next
in the
five
next
years, offse
five years, offset by $22Bn of expected
by $22Bn of expected generic spending for
generic spending for these medicines,
these medicines, resulting in a $98Bn paten
resulting in a $98Bn patent “dividend” in
“dividend” during this period.
these years.
• This • This compares to $70Bn in in 2006-10 2006-10 which
was which offset was by offset $16Bn by $16Bn of incremental of incremental generic
usage generic of those usage of expired those expired brands, brands, a net a saving
of net $54Bn. savings of $54Bn.
• Patents • are expected to to expire expire in one in one or or
more more of of the developed markets for for 11 of 11 of the
top the 20, top or 20, 6 or of 6 the of the top top 10, 10, current leading
medicines leading medicines including including Lipitor ® Lipitor , Plavix ® , ® ,
Advair Plavix ® ® Diskus , Advair ® , Diskus Nexium ® , Nexium ® and ® Seroquel and ® .
Seroquel ® .
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pre-Expiry Spending
-$120Bn
Lower Brand Spending
Source: Source: IMS Institute IMS for Institute Healthcare Informatics; Healthcare MIDAS, Dec Informatics; 2010 MIDAS, Dec 2010
The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook Through 2015
Report The by the Global IMS Institute Use for of Healthcare Medicines: InformaticsOutlook Through 2015
Report by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics
Chart notes
Spending expressed in US$ at constant exchange rates.
Chart covers developed markets.
Chart Lower Notes: brand spending reflects the expected impact in that
Spending year expressed on drug spending US$ of patent constant expiries exchange (includingrates.
Chart continuing covers developed impact from markets. expiries in prior years).
Lower
Pre-expiry
brand spending
spending
reflects
are the projected
the expected
sales in
impact
the year
in that year o
drug spending of patent expiries (including continuing impact fro
prior to expiry.
expiries in prior years).
Pre-expiry spending are the projected sales in the year prior to
expiry.
10
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