The Global Use of Medicines - IMS Health

Key drivers of change
KEY DRIVERS OF CHANGE
The impact of patent expiries will offset growth in brand spending
The impact of patent expiries will offset growth in brand spending
$139Bn
Components of Change in in Brand Brand Spending Spending
Brand Growth
$69Bn
$119Bn
Brand Growth
-$1Bn
• Spending • for branded products will will be be near
the nearly same the in same 2015 in 2015 as in as 2010. in 2010.
• Protected • brands will grow at at 7-8%, 7-8%,
approximately 3-4% of of which which will will come come from
price from growth, price growth, mostly mostly from from the the US. U.S.
• Population
• Population
and
and
aging
aging trends
trends
will
will
add
add
1%
1% to
age to and age and drug-use drug-use adjusted adjusted spending. spending.
• Volume growth for branded products,
• Volume
including
growth
expected
for
new
branded
launches,
products,
will be
including expected new launches, will be
much lower than in the past five as
much generics lower are than increasingly the preferred past five toyears as
generics existing are or new increasingly brands. preferred to existi
or new brands.
-$70Bn
-$120Bn
2006-10 2011-15
Source: IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics; Market Prognosis,
Source: Apr IMS Institute 2011 for Healthcare Informatics; Market Prognosis, Apr 2011
The Global
The Global
Use of
Use
Medicines:
of Medicines:
Outlook Through
Outlook
2015
Through 2015
Report by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics
Report by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics
Chart notes
Spending growth in US$ with constant exchange rates.
Protected brands from IMS MIDAS market segmentation
methodology.
Chart Notes:
Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) impact is calculated as the loss of
Spending growth in US$ with constant exchange rates.
Protected
brand
brands
sales due
from
to the
IMS
impact
Market
of expected
segmentation
generic entry.
methodology.
Loss of Population Exclusivity and aging (LOE) trends impact include is calculated population as growth the loss of bran
sales estimates due to the from impact the Economist of expected Intelligence generic Unit entry. and agerelated
and drug-usage aging trends adjustments include from population IMS Market Prognosis. growth estimate
Population
from the Economist Intelligence Unit and age-related drug-usag
adjustments from IMS Market Prognosis.
8
8