W o r ld O il O u tlo o k O P E C 2 1

36
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
medium variant of projections of the UN Department of Economic and Social Af-
Transition economies
fairs, grows on average –0.5 by 0.9% p.a. over the years to 2030, at which time it reaches
8.3 billion, an increase of 1.5 billion from 2009. Of this increase, 95% will be in
–1.0
developing countries, with 1970 developing 1980 Asia 1990 accounting 2000 for 2010close to 2020half of 2030 the global
increase (Figure 1.3).
In the discussion of demographics, focus has been upon median estimates,
although the UN also provides high and low growth estimates, which is an often
Figure 1.3
Increase in population, 2009–2030
South Asia
Middle East & Africa
OPEC
Southeast Asia
China
Latin America
North America
Western Europe
Other transition economies
OECD Pacific
Figure 1.3
Russia
–100 0 100 200 300 400
millions
500
overlooked source of uncertainty. Reference has been made to the changing age
structure of populations and the impact that this will have upon the growth of
working age populations, and by extension, the size of the labour force, a key determinant
of potential Figure economic 1.5 growth. OECD countries have an average of 66% of
the population at Real a working GDP in age 2009 (defined and 2030 here as aged 15–64). However, this figure
is already shrinking as a result of ageing populations. It means that the available labour
force in Western Europe 2009
$ (2005) trillion is expected to peak this year, before declining, unless
changes to the retirement 35 age are made and/or immigration inflows are increased.
In Japan, the size of the working age population actually peaked in the 1990s, and
30
in the OECD Pacific as a whole, the figure has also already begun to fall. In North
America, the share of this 25 age group in the total population will soon begin to fall,
but the relatively strong total population growth will ensure a continued expansion
20
15
10
OECD