W o r ld O il O u tlo o k O P E C 2 1

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Section One Oil supply and demand outlook to 2030 Chapter 1 World energy trends: overview of the Reference Case 21 Main assumptions 21 Energy demand 46 Oil demand 60 Oil supply 68 Upstream investment 75 CO2 emissions 76 Oil demand projections have been falling 78 Chapter 2 Oil demand by sector 81 Road transportation 81 Aviation 94 Other transportation: domestic waterways and rail 96 Other sectors 97 Demand by product 112 Chapter 3 Oil supply 117 Medium-term non-OPEC crude and NGLs 117 Long-term non-OPEC crude and NGLs 123 Non-conventional oil (excluding biofuels) 134 Biofuels 136 OPEC upstream investment activity 138 Chapter 4 Upstream challenges 139 Making appropriate investment decisions in the face of supply, demand and price uncertainties 139 Oil as a financial asset 145 Costs remain high 146 Human resources 147 Technology and R&D 148 Sustainable development 149 Dialogue and cooperation 150
Section Two Oil downstream outlook to 2030 Chapter 5 Distillation capacity requirements 155 Assessment of refining capacity expansion – review of existing projects 156 Medium-term outlook 171 Long-term distillation capacity outlook 177 Chapter 6 Conversion and desulphurization capacity requirements 185 Crude quality 185 Refined products quality developments 189 Capacity requirements 195 Crude and product pricing and differentials 206 Chapter 7 Downstream investment requirements 211 Chapter 8 Oil movements 215 Crude oil 216 Oil products 220 Tanker capacity requirements 225 Chapter 9 Downstream challenges 231 A new downstream outlook 231 Decline in market share 231 Capacity competition – expansion or closure 232 Distillate benefit; gasoline bust? 233 Demand and technology responses 233 Refining investments: risks and rewards 234 Energy and climate change policy impacts 235 Footnotes 246 Annex A 250 Abbreviations Annex B 258 OPEC World Energy Model (OWEM): definitions of regions Annex C 266 World Oil Refining Logistics Demand (WORLD) model: definitions of regions Annex D 274 Major data sources
Page 1: World Oil Outlook 2010 Organization
Page 4 and 5: 4 The data, analysis and any other
Page 6 and 7: Acknowledgements Director, Research
Page 10 and 11: L i s t o f b oxe s Box 1.1 The eme
Page 12 and 13: Figure 1.19 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 14 and 15: Foreword
Page 16 and 17: 2 Moreover, it is important not to
Page 18 and 19: Executive summary
Page 20 and 21: 6 expectations, with a pervasive re
Page 22 and 23: 8 to exploit. However, the melding
Page 24 and 25: 10 term implications for the offsho
Page 26 and 27: 12 a combination of an ethanol supp
Page 28 and 29: 14 production will be required, but
Page 30 and 31: 16 addressed by OPEC Member Countri
Page 32 and 33: Section One
Page 35 and 36: Chapter 1 W o r l d e n e r g y t r
Page 37 and 38: feasible, whether they are non-conv
Page 39 and 40: Futures and options contracts outst
Page 41 and 42: the publishing of aggregate positio
Page 43 and 44: led to a profound debt burden for m
Page 45 and 46: Meanwhile, domestic consumption in
Page 47 and 48: egions. Moreover, the evolving age
Page 49 and 50: Compounding the effect of lower bir
Page 51 and 52: OPEC Middle East & Africa of the si
Page 53 and 54: ising protectionism implies real th
Page 55 and 56: Figure Figure 1.6 1.6 Real Real GDP
Page 57 and 58: and 2.1 mb/d by 2030. This was incl
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In looking at the issue of energy s
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Figure 1.7 Energy use per capita bo
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Figure 1.8 Figure 1.7 World supply
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Table 1.6 Coal and gas demand growt
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America. Over the past year or so t
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natural gas (LNG) was generally pro
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construction in 13 countries, with
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US New Figure 1.13 (29.9.10) In rec
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Figure 1.16 Annual growth of oil de
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modifications to the assumptions fo
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Figure 70 1.20 Oil use per capita i
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Figure 1.24 Annual growth in oil de
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The initial focus is upon the prosp
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linked to what is realistically fea
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- e e EC 8 6 Figure 1.28 Figure 1.2
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Figure 1.32 Non-OPEC oil supply, tr
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2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
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Looking long-term there is a consid
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82 Figure 2.1 Oil demand by sector
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84 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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lation (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000
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88 Figure 2.6 Increase in number of
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90 Figure 2.7 Increase in volume of
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92 Second generation fuels and biom
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94 in developing Asia. By 2025, dev
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96 7.6 barrels of oil equivalent (b
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98 Table 2.6 Oil demand in domestic
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100 8 7 6 petrochemical sector grew
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102 Figure 2.12 Petroleum product f
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104 Other industry sectors Oil use
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106 Figure 2.14 Oil demand in other
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108 Figure 2.15 The evolution of oi
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15 110 Figure 2.16 Average annual p
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112 Demand by product The key findi
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114 Figure 2.17 Global product dema
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116 lubricants, waxes and solvents
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118 By 2014, non-OPEC crude plus NG
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120 Norwegian production fell to 2.
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122 Crude oil and NGLs in non-OPEC
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124 Box 3.1 Oil supply: lessons fro
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126 prices had remained that low, t
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128 In the coming years, advances i
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130 postponed until at least 2011,
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132 Nordaland and the Barents Sea,
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134 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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136 Biofuels With the recent oil pr
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138 OPEC upstream investment activi
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140 Figure 5.1 (6.10.10) Figure 4.1
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142 fundamentally affect the prospe
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144 Table 4.2 OPEC crude and non-OP
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146 oil as a financial asset traded
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148 over the past few years regardi
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150 It is critical that the UN MDGs
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 D i s t i l l a t i o n c
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With demand growing in the 1990s, t
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In respect to projects where no fir
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From other sources highlighted, onl
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on stream in September 2010. These
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the project. There is less certaint
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Figure 5.2 presents the yearly incr
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Table 5.1 Estimation of secondary p
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levels. In line with the expected d
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Figure 5.3 Figure 5.5 puts the same
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With utilization rates of at least
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upgrading capacity as a percentage
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Table 5.2 shows that cumulative ref
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Figure 5.6 Figure 5.6 Global gasoli
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elatively low in complexity and low
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Chapter 6 C o n v e r s i o n a n d
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Figure 6.2 Crude quality outlook in
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East, Latin America and Russia. Pro
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gallon cap and a 30 ppm annual aver
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It is diesel sulphur that presents
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y 20%, increase renewable energies
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for processing Mayan heavy crude, a
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that these processes can attain ove
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Long-term outlook Requirements for
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10 0 Figure 6.9 presents the region
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Figure 6.10 Desulphurization capaci
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There are several other factors tha
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Figure Figure 7.12 7.12 Figure 6.12
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Chapter 7 D o w n s t r e a m i n v
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Figure 8.1 than $10 billion will be
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Chapter 8 O i l m o v e m e n t s T
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growth in the global crude oil trad
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mb/d 50 decline in its crude export
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gasoline and diesel imbalance in th
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face the problem of a gasoline surp
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Figure 8.9 Net imports of liquid pr
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ica ada fic st Figure 8.10 Figure 9
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America pe a Canada -Pacific le Eas
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Chapter 9 D o w n s t r e a m c h a
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strongly in international markets,
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The overall conclusion is that the
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there is still the question about w
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equired GHG inventory and reporting
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Canada signalled a shift towards a
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• The impact will also be felt on
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245 Chapter 9
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1. http://www.ief.org/Events/Docume
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39. Gasoline desulphurization repor
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Abbreviations
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254 EUROPIA European Petroleum Indu
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256 UN MDGs United Nations Millenni
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Annex B
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OECD North America Canada Puerto Ri
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Equatorial Guinea Seychelles Eritre
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Tajikistan Uzbekistan The Former Yu
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World Oil Refining Logistics and De
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270 Brazil Uruguay Chile Africa Nor
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272 Croatia Slovakia Czech Republic
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Annex D
Page 290 and 291:
276
Page 292 and 293:
278 Global Subsidies Initiative (GS
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280 Society of Petroleum Engineers
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Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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W o r ld O il O u tlo o k O P E C 2 1

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