W o r ld O il O u tlo o k O P E C 2 1

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Acknowledgements Director, Research Division Hasan M Qabazard Project coordinator Oswaldo Tapia Solis, Head, Energy Studies Department Senior Advisor Mohamed Hamel Contributors Namat Abu Al-Soof, Fuad Siala, Brahim Aklil, Mohammad Taeb, Mohammad Khesali, Mohammad Mazraati, Benny Lubiantara, Taher Najah, Amal Alawami, Claude Clemenz, Nadir Guerer, Garry Brennand, Jan Ban, Joerg Spitzy, Douglas Linton, James Griffin, Martin Tallett, Petr Steiner, Ula Szalkowska Editor James Griffin Senior Editing Assistant Anne Rechbach Secretarial support Vivien Pilles-Broadley, Khedoudja Zeghdoud, Marie Brearley Art designer Alaa Al-Saigh Typesetting Andrea Birnbach Additional support was provided by Ibibia L Worika, Mohammad Alipour-Jeddi, Fuad Al-Zayer, Hojatollah Ghanimi Fard, Ulunma Agoawike, Puguh Irawan, Ramadan Janan, Haidar Khadadeh, Monika Psenner, Aziz Yahyai, Kurt Zach, Pantelis Christodoulides, Steve Hughes, Hannes Windholz, Mouhamad Moudassir, Klaus Stoeger, Harvir Kalirai OPEC’s Economic Commission Board Mustapha Hanifi, Luís Neves, Diego Armijos-Hidalgo, Seyed Mohammad Ali Khatibi Tabatabai, Adel Al-Taee, Nawal Al-Fuzaia, Omar Gazal, Suleman Ademola Raji, Sultan Al-Binali, Ahmad Al-Ghamdi, Hamdan Mubarak Al Akbari, Fadi Kabboul
C o n t e n t s Foreword 1 Executive summary 4 Section One Oil supply and demand outlook to 2030 18 Section Two Oil downstream outlook to 2030 152 Footnotes 246 Annexes 250
Page 1: World Oil Outlook 2010 Organization
Page 4 and 5: 4 The data, analysis and any other
Page 8 and 9: Section One Oil supply and demand o
Page 10 and 11: L i s t o f b oxe s Box 1.1 The eme
Page 12 and 13: Figure 1.19 OECD and non-OECD oil d
Page 14 and 15: Foreword
Page 16 and 17: 2 Moreover, it is important not to
Page 18 and 19: Executive summary
Page 20 and 21: 6 expectations, with a pervasive re
Page 22 and 23: 8 to exploit. However, the melding
Page 24 and 25: 10 term implications for the offsho
Page 26 and 27: 12 a combination of an ethanol supp
Page 28 and 29: 14 production will be required, but
Page 30 and 31: 16 addressed by OPEC Member Countri
Page 32 and 33: Section One
Page 35 and 36: Chapter 1 W o r l d e n e r g y t r
Page 37 and 38: feasible, whether they are non-conv
Page 39 and 40: Futures and options contracts outst
Page 41 and 42: the publishing of aggregate positio
Page 43 and 44: led to a profound debt burden for m
Page 45 and 46: Meanwhile, domestic consumption in
Page 47 and 48: egions. Moreover, the evolving age
Page 49 and 50: Compounding the effect of lower bir
Page 51 and 52: OPEC Middle East & Africa of the si
Page 53 and 54: ising protectionism implies real th
Page 55 and 56: Figure Figure 1.6 1.6 Real Real GDP
Page 57 and 58:
and 2.1 mb/d by 2030. This was incl
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In looking at the issue of energy s
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Figure 1.7 Energy use per capita bo
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Figure 1.8 Figure 1.7 World supply
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Table 1.6 Coal and gas demand growt
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America. Over the past year or so t
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natural gas (LNG) was generally pro
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construction in 13 countries, with
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US New Figure 1.13 (29.9.10) In rec
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Figure 1.16 Annual growth of oil de
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modifications to the assumptions fo
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Figure 70 1.20 Oil use per capita i
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Figure 1.24 Annual growth in oil de
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The initial focus is upon the prosp
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linked to what is realistically fea
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- e e EC 8 6 Figure 1.28 Figure 1.2
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Figure 1.32 Non-OPEC oil supply, tr
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2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
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Looking long-term there is a consid
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82 Figure 2.1 Oil demand by sector
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84 Table 2.1 (continued) Vehicle an
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lation (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000
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88 Figure 2.6 Increase in number of
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90 Figure 2.7 Increase in volume of
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92 Second generation fuels and biom
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94 in developing Asia. By 2025, dev
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96 7.6 barrels of oil equivalent (b
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98 Table 2.6 Oil demand in domestic
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100 8 7 6 petrochemical sector grew
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102 Figure 2.12 Petroleum product f
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104 Other industry sectors Oil use
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106 Figure 2.14 Oil demand in other
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108 Figure 2.15 The evolution of oi
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15 110 Figure 2.16 Average annual p
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112 Demand by product The key findi
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114 Figure 2.17 Global product dema
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116 lubricants, waxes and solvents
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118 By 2014, non-OPEC crude plus NG
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120 Norwegian production fell to 2.
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122 Crude oil and NGLs in non-OPEC
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124 Box 3.1 Oil supply: lessons fro
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126 prices had remained that low, t
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128 In the coming years, advances i
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130 postponed until at least 2011,
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132 Nordaland and the Barents Sea,
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134 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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136 Biofuels With the recent oil pr
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138 OPEC upstream investment activi
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140 Figure 5.1 (6.10.10) Figure 4.1
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142 fundamentally affect the prospe
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144 Table 4.2 OPEC crude and non-OP
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146 oil as a financial asset traded
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148 over the past few years regardi
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150 It is critical that the UN MDGs
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Section Two
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Chapter 5 D i s t i l l a t i o n c
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With demand growing in the 1990s, t
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In respect to projects where no fir
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From other sources highlighted, onl
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on stream in September 2010. These
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the project. There is less certaint
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Figure 5.2 presents the yearly incr
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Table 5.1 Estimation of secondary p
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levels. In line with the expected d
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Figure 5.3 Figure 5.5 puts the same
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With utilization rates of at least
Page 191 and 192:
upgrading capacity as a percentage
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Table 5.2 shows that cumulative ref
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Figure 5.6 Figure 5.6 Global gasoli
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elatively low in complexity and low
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Chapter 6 C o n v e r s i o n a n d
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Figure 6.2 Crude quality outlook in
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East, Latin America and Russia. Pro
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gallon cap and a 30 ppm annual aver
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It is diesel sulphur that presents
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y 20%, increase renewable energies
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for processing Mayan heavy crude, a
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that these processes can attain ove
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Long-term outlook Requirements for
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10 0 Figure 6.9 presents the region
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Figure 6.10 Desulphurization capaci
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There are several other factors tha
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Figure Figure 7.12 7.12 Figure 6.12
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Chapter 7 D o w n s t r e a m i n v
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Figure 8.1 than $10 billion will be
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Chapter 8 O i l m o v e m e n t s T
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growth in the global crude oil trad
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mb/d 50 decline in its crude export
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gasoline and diesel imbalance in th
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face the problem of a gasoline surp
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Figure 8.9 Net imports of liquid pr
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ica ada fic st Figure 8.10 Figure 9
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America pe a Canada -Pacific le Eas
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Chapter 9 D o w n s t r e a m c h a
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strongly in international markets,
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The overall conclusion is that the
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there is still the question about w
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equired GHG inventory and reporting
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Canada signalled a shift towards a
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• The impact will also be felt on
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245 Chapter 9
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1. http://www.ief.org/Events/Docume
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39. Gasoline desulphurization repor
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Abbreviations
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254 EUROPIA European Petroleum Indu
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256 UN MDGs United Nations Millenni
Page 272 and 273:
Annex B
Page 275 and 276:
OECD North America Canada Puerto Ri
Page 277 and 278:
Equatorial Guinea Seychelles Eritre
Page 279 and 280:
Tajikistan Uzbekistan The Former Yu
Page 281:
World Oil Refining Logistics and De
Page 284 and 285:
270 Brazil Uruguay Chile Africa Nor
Page 286 and 287:
272 Croatia Slovakia Czech Republic
Page 288 and 289:
Annex D
Page 290 and 291:
276
Page 292 and 293:
278 Global Subsidies Initiative (GS
Page 294 and 295:
280 Society of Petroleum Engineers
Page 296:
Organization of the Petroleum Expor
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W o r ld O il O u tlo o k O P E C 2 1

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