PERF RMANCE 04 - The Performance Portal - Ernst & Young
PERF RMANCE 04 - The Performance Portal - Ernst & Young
PERF RMANCE 04 - The Performance Portal - Ernst & Young
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Use discipline to select<br />
technologies<br />
For firms facing rapid technological<br />
change, knowing which technology to back<br />
need not be a guessing game or a purely<br />
creative exercise. We provide a framework<br />
for informed decisions as shown in Figure<br />
7. <strong>The</strong> framework consists of identifying<br />
the levels of innovation, the competing<br />
technologies at each level, the dimensions<br />
of performance on which to compare<br />
them and the patterns of evolution on<br />
each dimension.<br />
Our study has shown that some prior beliefs about<br />
technology evolution and selection are wrong. It<br />
refutes the “confirmed wisdom” that technology<br />
evolution patterns follow simple successive S-shaped<br />
curves. Rather, patterns of evolution are complex,<br />
on multiple dimensions and only partly predictable.<br />
Importantly, firms need to invest in, or<br />
at least monitor, a portfolio of technologies in<br />
order to appreciate which technology to back.<br />
Figure 7. Suggested tellis/sood framework for technology selection<br />
1. Do not rely on simplistic models such as the “S-curve.”<br />
2. Identify the different levels of innovation (platform, design, or<br />
component?).<br />
3. Identify the competing technologies at each level.<br />
4. Identify the dimensions of performance on which to compare them.<br />
5. Follow the patterns of evolution on each dimension.<br />
6. Continuously monitor a portfolio of technologies in order to<br />
appreciate which technology to back.<br />
7. Be ready to change technologies if one seems to be improving<br />
faster than others.<br />
Note: <strong>The</strong> tellis/sood framework for technology evaluation study examined the<br />
evolution of all the technologies in seven markets. <strong>The</strong> study used data from as early<br />
as 1879 to 2001.