Abbreviated Interrupted Time-Series - Institute for Policy Research

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Contrast 2 Study Conclusions • NCLB increased – 4 th Grade Math – 8 points. – 6 months of learning – .26 SD – .21 Pct – 8 th grade math – 8 points – 12 months of learning – .19 SD – .20 pct – 4 th Grade Reading • No significant effect <strong>for</strong> either contrast but all are in the hypothesized direction
Overall Conclusions • Similar results obtain from both strategies: – significant 4 th and 8 th grade math effects but not <strong>for</strong> reading • Viable internal threats are factors independent of NCLB that changed in 2002 and are correlated with both the public/private and the high/low proficiency contrasts • Most alternative interpretations do not apply to both strategies, and this should reduce concerns about internal validity • A few are shared (e.g., changes in math standards in public schools in 2002). These are discussed in the paper and shown to highly unlikely.
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Abbreviated Interrupted Time‐Seri
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The effect can be a change in inter
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The effect can be a change in slope
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The effect can be delayed in time.
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Interrupted Time Series Can Provide
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Meeting ITS Conditions in Education
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• O X O Theoretical Rationales fo
Page 15 and 16: O O O X O • Initial standing asse
Page 17 and 18: Threats to Validity: History • Wi
Page 19 and 20: Threat to SCV • When a treatment
Page 21 and 22: External Validity • The essence o
Page 23 and 24: O X O O O • Now we add a comparis
Page 25 and 26: O O O X O O O O O • Now mean diff
Page 27 and 28: Results: Percent of Students Obtain
Page 29 and 30: Adding a nonequivalent dependent va
Page 31 and 32: Note that the outcome variable (ope
Page 33 and 34: Only the targeted dependent variabl
Page 35 and 36: Example: Evaluating No Child Left B
Page 37 and 38: Contrast Type 1 & 2 • Contrast 1:
Page 39 and 40: Hypothetical NCLB effects on public
Page 41 and 42: Analytic Model • NCLB Public vs.
Page 43 and 44: Main NAEP 4 th grade math scores by
Page 45 and 46: Difference in differences in Total
Page 49 and 50: Trend NAEP Time Series Graphs Publi
Page 51 and 52: Trend NAEP 8 th grade math scores b
Page 53 and 54: Public vs Private School Findings
Page 55 and 56: Contrast 2: Comparing States that v
Page 57 and 58: Evidence of Differing Standards Hig
Page 59 and 60: Main NAEP Time Series Graphs States
Page 61 and 62: ], ) ( ) ( ) ( [ ) _ _ ( ) _ _ ( )
Page 65: Difference in differences in 2009 T
Page 69 and 70: Basic Insight of D & J • NCLB pas
Page 71 and 72: D & J Results: 4 th Grade Math
Page 73 and 74: Dee and Jacob Results • Similar c
Page 75 and 76: 4 th Grade Reading
Page 77 and 78: The Use of Multiple Comparison Grou
Page 79 and 80: Adding Treatment Introduction and R
Page 81 and 82: Medication decreased hyperactivity,
Page 83 and 84: Example: Chorpita • A child with
Page 85 and 86: Multiple Baselines on Different Uni
Page 88 and 89: The effects of screening for phenyl
Page 90 and 91: Multilevel Models: Current Work •
Page 92 and 93: Potential drawbacks of using HLM to
Page 94 and 95: Stuart Data Example (Stuart, 1967)
Page 96 and 97: Level 2 data: Persons Level-2 data
Page 98 and 99: HLM: Linear Model Estimates Final e
Page 100 and 101: HLM Output from Quadratic Model: Fi
Page 102 and 103: So Simple: What Could Go Wrong? •
Page 104 and 105: Problematically • Different combi
Page 106 and 107: Do you have any examples to share w
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