Global market review of driver assistance systems ... - Just-Auto.com
Global market review of driver assistance systems ... - Just-Auto.com
Global market review of driver assistance systems ... - Just-Auto.com
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
<strong>Global</strong> <strong>market</strong> <strong>review</strong><br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong><br />
<strong>systems</strong> (collision<br />
avoidance) – forecasts to<br />
2011<br />
2005 edition
Page i<br />
<strong>Global</strong> <strong>market</strong> <strong>review</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>driver</strong><br />
<strong>assistance</strong> <strong>systems</strong> (collision<br />
avoidance) – forecasts to 2011<br />
2nd edition<br />
by Matthew Beecham<br />
August 2005<br />
Published by<br />
Aroq Limited<br />
Seneca House<br />
Buntsford Park Road<br />
Bromsgrove<br />
Worcestershire<br />
B60 3DX<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Tel: +44 (0)1527 573 600<br />
Fax: +44 (0)1527 577 423<br />
Web: www.just-auto.<strong>com</strong><br />
Registered in England no: 4307068<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page ii<br />
Multi-user licence edition<br />
This report is provided with a cost-effective multi-user licence and can be<br />
freely and legally shared with your colleagues. This agreement includes<br />
sharing electronically via your corporate intranet or the making <strong>of</strong> physical<br />
copies for your <strong>com</strong>pany library. Excluded from this agreement is sharing any<br />
part <strong>of</strong> this publication with, or transmitting via any means to, anybody outside<br />
<strong>of</strong> your <strong>com</strong>pany. For further details regarding the terms <strong>of</strong> this licence please<br />
contact:<br />
Rebecca Rice<br />
Sales and <strong>market</strong>ing, just-auto.<strong>com</strong><br />
Tel: +44 (0)1527 573 605<br />
Fax: +44 (0)1527 577 423<br />
Email: rebecca.rice@just-auto.<strong>com</strong><br />
Copyright statement<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Limited. All rights reserved.<br />
This publication, nor any part <strong>of</strong> it, may be copied, reproduced, stored in a<br />
retrieval system, or be transmitted in any form by any means electronic,<br />
mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, for or to persons not<br />
employed directly by your <strong>com</strong>pany, without the prior permission <strong>of</strong> Aroq<br />
Limited. This report is the product <strong>of</strong> extensive research work. It is protected by<br />
copyright under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.<br />
Aroq Limited <strong>of</strong>fers a reward <strong>of</strong> £1,000 for information leading to the<br />
successful prosecution for illegal copying <strong>of</strong> this document.<br />
The authors <strong>of</strong> Aroq Limited research reports are drawn from a wide range <strong>of</strong><br />
pr<strong>of</strong>essional and academic disciplines. The facts within this report are believed<br />
to be correct at the time <strong>of</strong> publication but cannot be guaranteed. All<br />
information within this study has been reasonably verified to the author’s and<br />
publisher’s ability, but neither accept responsibility for loss arising from<br />
decisions based on this report.<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page iii<br />
Table <strong>of</strong> contents<br />
Multi-user licence edition.............................................................................................................ii<br />
Copyright statement.................................................................................................................. ii<br />
Table <strong>of</strong> contents ........................................................................................................................... iii<br />
List <strong>of</strong> tables .................................................................................................................................... v<br />
List <strong>of</strong> figures ................................................................................................................................. vi<br />
just-auto.<strong>com</strong>’s research portfolio ..............................................................................................vii<br />
Incredible ROI for your budget – single and multi-user licences..............................................vii<br />
just-auto.<strong>com</strong> membership ......................................................................................................... viii<br />
Chapter 1.......................................................................................................................................... 1<br />
Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1<br />
Report coverage........................................................................................................................ 1<br />
Chapter 2.......................................................................................................................................... 2<br />
Market players........................................................................................................................... 2<br />
Aisin Seiki ......................................................................................................................... 2<br />
Bosch................................................................................................................................ 2<br />
Continental Teves............................................................................................................. 3<br />
Delphi ............................................................................................................................... 3<br />
Hella ................................................................................................................................. 4<br />
TRW ................................................................................................................................. 4<br />
Visteon.............................................................................................................................. 4<br />
Market forecasts........................................................................................................................ 6<br />
Adaptive cruise control ..................................................................................................... 6<br />
Lane departure warning <strong>systems</strong> ..................................................................................... 9<br />
Parking aid <strong>systems</strong> ....................................................................................................... 11<br />
Chapter 3........................................................................................................................................ 15<br />
Technical <strong>review</strong> ..................................................................................................................... 15<br />
Defining the elements..................................................................................................... 15<br />
Do we need <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong>? ...................................................................................... 15<br />
Do we want <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong>?....................................................................................... 20<br />
Adaptive cruise control ................................................................................................... 21<br />
Parking aid <strong>systems</strong> ....................................................................................................... 31<br />
Night vision <strong>systems</strong>....................................................................................................... 36<br />
Tomorrow’s <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong> <strong>systems</strong>........................................................................... 38<br />
Online sources <strong>of</strong> information ..................................................................................................... 50<br />
Free email newsletters............................................................................................................ 50<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page iv<br />
Other research reports............................................................................................................ 50<br />
<strong>Global</strong> news and feature articles............................................................................................. 50<br />
Search the web ....................................................................................................................... 50<br />
Your feedback ............................................................................................................................... 51<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page v<br />
List <strong>of</strong> tables<br />
Table 1: Adaptive cruise control sales volumes in Western Europe and Japan, 2000 – 2011<br />
(Units) .........................................................................................................................8<br />
Table 2: Adaptive cruise control <strong>market</strong> value in Western Europe and Japan, 2000 – 2011<br />
(€Euros) ...................................................................................................................... 8<br />
Table 3: Lane departure warning system sales volumes in Western Europe and Japan, 2000 –<br />
2011 (Units) .............................................................................................................. 11<br />
Table 4: Lane departure warning system <strong>market</strong> value in Western Europe and Japan, 2000 –<br />
2011 (€Euros)........................................................................................................... 11<br />
Table 5: Parking aid system sales volumes in Western Europe, North America and Japan, 2000 –<br />
2011 (Units) .............................................................................................................. 12<br />
Table 6: Parking aid system <strong>market</strong> values in Western Europe, North America and Japan, 2000 –<br />
2011 (€Euros)........................................................................................................... 13<br />
Table 7: Market value <strong>of</strong> <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong> <strong>systems</strong> in Western Europe and Japan, 2000 – 2011<br />
(€Euros) .................................................................................................................... 13<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page vi<br />
List <strong>of</strong> figures<br />
Figure 1: European <strong>market</strong> shares for adaptive cruise control, 2004 (% <strong>of</strong> volume) ....................... 5<br />
Figure 2: Bosch’s <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong> <strong>systems</strong> have two functions: <strong>com</strong>fort and safety................... 17<br />
Figure 3: Accident statistics in Europe, 1985 – 2001 ..................................................................... 18<br />
Figure 4: European Commission’s eSafety programme ................................................................ 18<br />
Figure 5: Hella’s Lane Change Assistant.......................................................................................24<br />
Figure 6: Hella’s Lane Change Assistant.......................................................................................25<br />
Figure 7: Hella’s ACC system ........................................................................................................ 26<br />
Figure 8: Hella’s ACC system ........................................................................................................ 26<br />
Figure 9: Hella’s ACC system ........................................................................................................ 27<br />
Figure 10: Citroën’s lane departure warning system...................................................................... 30<br />
Figure 11: Hella’s rear view camera............................................................................................... 33<br />
Figure 12: Hella’s rear view camera............................................................................................... 34<br />
Figure 13: Hella’s rear view camera............................................................................................... 35<br />
Figure 14: Siemens VDO’s night vision system ............................................................................. 38<br />
Figure 15: Bosch’s ParkPilot ........................................................................................................... 44<br />
Figure 16: Bosch’s ACCPlus.......................................................................................................... 45<br />
Figure 17: Bosch’s CAPS: Combination <strong>of</strong> Active and Passive Safety Systems with Driver<br />
Assistance Systems.................................................................................................. 45<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page vii<br />
just-auto.<strong>com</strong>’s research portfolio<br />
just-auto.<strong>com</strong> has been providing timely auto industry intelligence to the<br />
automotive industry globally since 1999. We use only experienced and<br />
respected authors to publish our portfolio <strong>of</strong> automotive <strong>com</strong>ponent sector<br />
reports. Our approach is to cover niche technology sectors - <strong>of</strong>ten at a module<br />
level, such as ro<strong>of</strong> <strong>systems</strong> or fuel injection <strong>systems</strong>, to provide you with the<br />
best available analysis at a good-value price point.<br />
All <strong>of</strong> the reports in our growing portfolio, many in their 2nd or 3rd editions, give<br />
you an essential overview <strong>of</strong> a sector. Each study pr<strong>of</strong>iles the key players,<br />
assesses which technologies are being developed, and gives you other<br />
essential intelligence including <strong>market</strong> share data, forecasts and exclusive<br />
interviews with relevant senior executives.<br />
A full list <strong>of</strong> available reports is online at www.just-auto.<strong>com</strong>/store<br />
Incredible ROI for your budget – single and multi-user licences<br />
We understand the pressure your research budget is under and price our<br />
reports realistically. You won't find our reports with four, or even five-figure<br />
price tags, but you will find that they make some <strong>of</strong> the <strong>com</strong>petition look<br />
expensive.<br />
Each title is available to you on a single-user basis, supplied on the strict<br />
understanding that each title is not to be copied or shared. Alternatively, titles<br />
can be shared within departments or entire corporations via a cost-effective<br />
multi-user licence. Multi-user licences can also save you money by avoiding<br />
unnecessary order duplication. To further add value, all multi-user copies are<br />
hosted on a password protected extranet for your department or <strong>com</strong>pany -<br />
saving you time, resources and effort when sharing research with your<br />
colleagues. To find out more about multi-user pricing please contact:<br />
Rebecca Rice, research manager, just-auto.<strong>com</strong><br />
Tel: +44 (0)1527 573 605 Fax: +44 (0)1527 577 423<br />
Email: rebecca.rice@just-auto.<strong>com</strong><br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Page viii<br />
just-auto.<strong>com</strong> membership<br />
As a 'consumer' <strong>of</strong> automotive research, just-auto site membership will be<br />
especially valuable to you. For just £125 / $195 / €175* a year you will gain<br />
access to a growing portfolio <strong>of</strong> exclusive management briefing reports, and<br />
also receive 12 new reports for each year you are a member.<br />
These reports are between 5,000 and 10,000 words and give you fresh insight<br />
into diverse sectors such as retailing, transmissions, x-by-wire, after<strong>market</strong><br />
issues and emerging <strong>market</strong>s.<br />
As well as this impressive list <strong>of</strong> members' only reports, you also gain one<br />
year’s access to a constantly updated stream <strong>of</strong> news, feature articles and<br />
analysis at www.just-auto.<strong>com</strong>. Established in 1999, just-auto.<strong>com</strong> has<br />
rapidly evolved into the premier source <strong>of</strong> global automotive news, analysis<br />
and data for busy senior executives.<br />
In addition, membership gives you full access to four years <strong>of</strong> news and<br />
feature archives, key news headlines from around the web and your own email<br />
alerting tool - AMANDA. In short, a one-stop shop for global automotive<br />
intelligence.<br />
For further details <strong>of</strong> this month’s special joining <strong>of</strong>fer visit:<br />
www.just-auto.<strong>com</strong>/<strong>of</strong>fer.asp<br />
* Prices correct at time <strong>of</strong> publication.<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Chapter 1<br />
Page 1<br />
Chapter 1<br />
Introduction<br />
Recent research shows that six out <strong>of</strong> ten front-end crashes would not occur if<br />
the <strong>driver</strong> could react a split second earlier. Driver <strong>assistance</strong> <strong>systems</strong> can<br />
help cut the accident toll. According to Bosch, <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong> <strong>systems</strong> aim to<br />
make the vehicle capable <strong>of</strong> perceiving its surroundings, interpret them,<br />
identify critical situations, and assist the <strong>driver</strong> in performing driving<br />
manoeuvres. The object is, at best, to prevent accidents <strong>com</strong>pletely and, at<br />
worst, to minimise the consequences <strong>of</strong> an accident for those concerned.<br />
The European Commission estimates that the X.Xm road accidents per year in<br />
Europe cause X.Xm injuries andXX,XXX fatalities at an estimated cost <strong>of</strong><br />
€XXXbn. The EC has therefore established its eSafety programme, which aims<br />
to halve the number <strong>of</strong> deaths from traffic accidents by 2010. “The EC target to<br />
reduce the road mortality rate by half by the end <strong>of</strong> the decade is certainly an<br />
ambitious goal,” said Dr Rainer Kallenbach, executive vice president for<br />
Bosch’s automotive electronics division, in an exclusive interview with justauto.<br />
“Driver Assistance Systems, however, are still in their infancy with not<br />
many cars equipped with it. Therefore they can only make a contribution<br />
toward meeting this goal. However, we see that increasing fitment <strong>of</strong> ESP<br />
(electronic stability programme) will make an even bigger contribution to<br />
cutting the number <strong>of</strong> fatalities on European roads.”<br />
In addition to Bosch, Continental Teves, TRW <strong>Auto</strong>motive, Hella, Iteris, Valeo,<br />
Delphi, Siemens VDO and Visteon are among those investing huge amounts<br />
to developing <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong> and pushing back the technical boundaries.<br />
Report coverage<br />
In this second edition report, just-auto extends the analysis to provide detailed<br />
<strong>market</strong> volume and value forecasts through 2011 for three primary <strong>driver</strong><br />
<strong>assistance</strong> technologies: adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning and<br />
parking aid <strong>systems</strong>. Chapter three <strong>review</strong>s some <strong>of</strong> the <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong><br />
innovations and main issues facing manufacturers serving this blossoming<br />
<strong>market</strong>.<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Chapter 2<br />
Page 2<br />
Chapter 2<br />
Market players<br />
Aisin Seiki<br />
Aisin Seiki is one <strong>of</strong> the world’s largest automotive manufacturing groups.<br />
Since its formation, the Japanese <strong>com</strong>pany has expanded its operations<br />
abroad. The Aisin Group is organised into six product areas. They are: engine<br />
related products; drivetrain related products; brake and chassis related<br />
products; body related products; <strong>driver</strong> information related products; and life<br />
and energy related products. Its <strong>driver</strong> information related products include<br />
navigation <strong>systems</strong>; parking assist <strong>systems</strong>; and lane departure warning<br />
<strong>systems</strong>, accounting for about X% <strong>of</strong> turnover.<br />
Aisin Seiki has worked with Toyota to develop a system that helps <strong>driver</strong>s<br />
reverse into parking spaces without touching the steering wheel. Known as<br />
Intelligent Parking Assist, it <strong>com</strong>bines electronically controlled power steering<br />
and monitoring technologies to enable the <strong>driver</strong> to set where a vehicle is to be<br />
parked by using a touch-sensitive panel and images from cameras on both<br />
sides <strong>of</strong> the rear <strong>of</strong> the vehicle. The <strong>com</strong>pany has also developed technology<br />
using image processing for a lane departure warning system. Aisin’s system<br />
sounds an alarm when the vehicle makes an unintentional lane departure. The<br />
front and side monitors check the <strong>driver</strong>’s blind spots using a camera,<br />
displaying the image on the navigation screen. Last year [2004], Aisin and<br />
Toyota introduced the world's first active parking system, Intelligent Park<br />
Assist, in the Japan-<strong>market</strong>, Toyota Prius hybrid car.<br />
Bosch<br />
As far as Bosch’s <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong> philosophy is concerned, its technology fills<br />
the gap between safety and <strong>com</strong>fort. “We are approaching it from the <strong>com</strong>fort<br />
side, adding features to assist the <strong>driver</strong>. The <strong>driver</strong> maintains the full<br />
responsibility for what he is doing,” said Dr Rainer Kallenbach, executive vice<br />
president for Bosch’s automotive electronics division. At its bi-annual press<br />
event in June 2005 in Boxberg, Germany, Bosch showed ideas and displayed<br />
plans for its future safety and <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong> technologies, part <strong>of</strong> its CAPS<br />
(<strong>com</strong>bined active and passive safety) system.<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Chapter 3<br />
Page 15<br />
Chapter 3<br />
Technical <strong>review</strong><br />
Defining the elements<br />
Driver <strong>assistance</strong> <strong>systems</strong> – either on the road or still on the drawing board –<br />
divide into three distinct categories:<br />
○<br />
Collision-warning <strong>systems</strong> – this is the original term for forward and side<br />
radar <strong>systems</strong>, which simply alert the <strong>driver</strong>, but do not control engine<br />
speed. Driver support <strong>systems</strong> without active intervention can be viewed<br />
as a pre-stage to vehicle guidance. They only warn the <strong>driver</strong> or suggest a<br />
driving manoeuvre.<br />
○<br />
Collision-mitigation <strong>systems</strong> – in addition to sending out a warning to<br />
the <strong>driver</strong> (either through audio, visual or vibrating the steering wheel),<br />
these <strong>systems</strong> aim to assess the danger ahead and activate various active<br />
safety features, such as pre-tensioning the seatbelts.<br />
○<br />
Collision-avoidance <strong>systems</strong> – using these <strong>systems</strong> means that some<br />
degree <strong>of</strong> control is taken over from the <strong>driver</strong> if he/she doesn’t react in<br />
time to avoid a crash.<br />
Do we need <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong>?<br />
On average, someone dies every minute somewhere in the world as a result <strong>of</strong><br />
a traffic accident. Bosch pursues the aim <strong>of</strong> reducing the frequency and<br />
severity <strong>of</strong> accidents by developing active and passive driving <strong>assistance</strong><br />
<strong>systems</strong>. According to Bosch, <strong>driver</strong> <strong>assistance</strong> <strong>systems</strong> aim to make the<br />
vehicle capable <strong>of</strong> perceiving its surroundings, interpret them, identify critical<br />
situations, and assist the <strong>driver</strong> in performing driving manoeuvres. The object<br />
is, at best, to prevent accidents <strong>com</strong>pletely and, at worst, to minimise the<br />
consequences <strong>of</strong> an accident for those concerned.<br />
In critical driving situations, fractions <strong>of</strong> a second are <strong>of</strong>ten decisive in<br />
determining whether an accident occurs or not, says Bosch. According to<br />
various studies, about XX% <strong>of</strong> rear-end collisions and a third <strong>of</strong> frontal impacts<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Online sources <strong>of</strong> information Page 50<br />
Online sources <strong>of</strong> information<br />
Free email newsletters<br />
Experience just-auto.<strong>com</strong> via our free newsletters:<br />
○<br />
○<br />
○<br />
Daily industry headlines<br />
The most important headlines direct to your inbox daily.<br />
Dave Leggett's 'Editors weekly highlights'<br />
Dave's unique take on the most important industry events each week.<br />
Rebecca Rice's 'Research Update'<br />
A monthly synopsis <strong>of</strong> new, important and reduced-price research.<br />
Sign up at www.just-auto.<strong>com</strong>/newsletter<br />
Other research reports<br />
Search for related research reports from over 20 leading research suppliers in<br />
the just-auto.<strong>com</strong> store.<br />
<strong>Global</strong> news and feature articles<br />
Search for related news items and feature articles from just-auto’s news and<br />
feature archives, going back more than four years.<br />
Search the web<br />
Try www.google.<strong>com</strong> to search for related web sites and pages.<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Your feedback Page 51<br />
Your feedback<br />
Your feedback is greatly valued. Please <strong>com</strong>plete the form below with your<br />
positive and negative <strong>com</strong>ments, along with any questions or queries, and fax<br />
it to us on +44 (0)1527 577 423. Thank you.<br />
Name ________________________ Job title ________________________<br />
Company ________________________ Phone ________________________<br />
Email<br />
________________________<br />
Study title _________________________________________________________________<br />
Things I liked about this study...<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
Things I disliked about this study...<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
My questions regarding the content...<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
I would like to see more information on...<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
Other subject areas <strong>of</strong> interest to me include...<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
_________________________________________________________________________<br />
© 2005 All content copyright Aroq Ltd. All rights reserved.
Change language