2002 - OPEC

3.0 per cent. There was a degree of stabilization at the end of the year, but hopes of sustainable
growth were dashed as the strong dollar began to constrain US exports. This weakness in exports and
investments meant that US economic activity lost momentum in the fourth quarter and industrial
production began to fall in October. The US economy managed to grow by 2.4 per cent, which was
largely due to strong growth in personal and government consumption, but personal spending growth
also began to slow in the fourth quarter, as rising unemployment affected consumer confidence.
Japan remained in recession, although in the second half, the economy accelerated as a result of rising
exports and the end of the decline in investment spending. Personal consumption continued to grow
at a steady rate of over 1.0 per cent and government spending supported the economy. Inventories
were sharply reduced, and this factor, coupled with the falls in capital spending early in the year,
meant that Japan’s overall GDP growth rate in the first half of 2002 stood at 0.2 per cent, versus the
1.8 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rate in the second half of the year.
The euro-zone economies saw little growth. Government spending was the only category of German
domestic demand to show any improvement. The weak euro provided a stimulus to German exports,
which grew by 3.4 per cent. Only the positive impact of net trade kept the level of German GDP in
2002 above 2001 levels. In France, the economy benefited from better domestic demand and net
exports gained from the strong dollar. As a result, French GDP managed to grow by 1.2 per cent, but
the economy weakened by the third quarter and GDP fell slightly in the final quarter. Outside the euro-
zone, the UK economy relied on strong domestic demand to achieve a growth rate of 1.9 per cent.
UK export performance was poor and industrial production suffered, falling over 3.0 per cent below
levels registered the previous year.
The Russian economy experienced healthy domestic demand and grew by over 4.0 per cent in 2002,
despite the deterioration in the current account. The restructuring process in the region continued and growth
rates of 4.0 per cent or higher were achieved by most of states of the former Soviet Union (FSU).
Emerging Asia was badly affected by the slowdown in the information technology industry in 2001.
However, the recovery in 2002 was impressive. Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) grew by 3.9 per cent,
despite weakness in the G7 economies. The opening of the Chinese economy has been boosted by
the growing self-sufficiency of Asia and the increasing importance of fast-growing regional demand.
The Chinese economy expanded by 8.0 per cent as a result of substantial growth in fixed investment
and large gains in market share. South Korea made good progress as both private consumption and
fixed investment rose by about 7.0 per cent. India also showed that Asian growth prospects were not
overly dependent on the health of the G7 economies. The Indian economy benefited from steps to
open up to foreign investment and industrial production rose by over 5.0 per cent. Agriculture was
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