Report - Nikko AM Asia Limited
Report - Nikko AM Asia Limited
Report - Nikko AM Asia Limited
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Portfolio Review<br />
Underperformed due to stock selection in North America<br />
During the year under review, the <strong>Nikko</strong> <strong>AM</strong> Shenton Global Property Securities Fund (the “Fund”)<br />
delivered a return of 9.41% (SGD terms, on NAV-NAV basis), underperforming the benchmark by 2.66%.<br />
Our stock selection in the U.S. and Canada detracted from performance as small caps and defensive<br />
sectors rallied, driven by the search for yield. Cash allocation was also a drag. This was mitigated by our<br />
stock selection in the UK and Japan, particularly our exposure to specialist firms in the UK and Tokyo<br />
office names. Our overweight to the Singapore REITs also added value as the sector outperformed.<br />
Outlook / Portfolio Strategy<br />
U.S. economic environment should remain positive<br />
Investors continue to be optimistic regarding growth in the U.S., we believe. Even so, the possibility of<br />
withdrawal of stimulus has been a source of concern. Our view continues to be that policy support from<br />
the U.S. Fed is not indefinite and that withdrawal is indicative of more normal economic growth which<br />
is a positive in the long run. As long as jobs data and retail sales show a stable recovery, the economic<br />
environment should remain positive, in our opinion. The Canadian economy is set to continue expanding<br />
on the back of the resources industry and stable commodity prices.<br />
Stable debt markets, but growth to be sluggish<br />
European sovereign debt markets have been relatively stable on the back of continued easing in the U.S.<br />
and Japan. Our expectation continues to be that European growth should be sluggish in 2013. We also<br />
expect the European Central Bank to further ease monetary policy once German elections are complete.<br />
Southern European countries should continue to bear the painful readjustments in their economy on the<br />
back of the austerity drive. We continue to be pessimistic on the economic outlook of Southern Europe<br />
in the long run vis-à-vis Northern Europe and Scandinavia but have reduced our underweight given<br />
reduction in sovereign risk.<br />
UK economy sluggish, but London remains attractive<br />
UK economic conditions continue to be sluggish, which is being reflected in the weakness of the GBP.<br />
We expect new Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, to have an accommodative monetary policy.<br />
The current weakness in the currency continues to make London an attractive place for capital. We<br />
continue to focus on specialty names with London exposure.<br />
Waiting for structural changes in Japan<br />
In Japan, fiscal and monetary support measures are in place, and the market is focused on what structural<br />
changes will be announced by the government over the next few months. It is positive that the government<br />
has a majority in both houses following the recent upper house elections. The most immediate point of<br />
interest is whether the government decides to go through with raising the consumption tax from the<br />
current 5% to 8% in April 2014. The expectation continues to be that monetary base will double over<br />
the next two years. From a fundamental perspective we feel that Grade A office vacancy should continue<br />
to improve through the year. High quality industrial space should also see stable demand. We also expect<br />
multiple primary and secondary offerings in the Japanese REIT space.<br />
<strong>Asia</strong>n REITs are attractive<br />
We continue to believe that the economies in the <strong>Asia</strong> Pacific ex-Japan region will grow at a pace which<br />
will remain supportive of commercial real estate values and rents. We are sanguine about the <strong>Asia</strong>n REITs<br />
in the current environment of rising bond yields as they are likely to benefit from stronger rents in an<br />
environment of recovering global growth. <strong>Asia</strong>n REIT yields remain at attractive levels, having recovered<br />
only mildly following their recent sell-down. In particular, spreads between REIT yields and long bond<br />
yields are still elevated, leaving room for compression. We remain overweight in the <strong>Asia</strong>-Pacific ex-Japan<br />
region.<br />
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