potential-impacts-of-climate-change-on-the-swan-and-canning-rivers

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List <strong>of</strong> Appendixes Appendix 1: Draft Scenarios for Swan River Trust Climate Working Group ......................................85 Appendix 2: Rainfall/Streamfl ow Scenario Calculations ...................................................................95 Table 2-3. Projected winter rainfall and streamfl ow <strong>change</strong>s - ensemble median S/W ....................97 Appendix 3: Emission Scenarios <strong>of</strong> the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) ....101 Appendix 4: Work File .....................................................................................................................104 Appendix 5: Birds in the Swan and Canning River System ............................................................106
Preamble During the 21 st century the ecology and character <strong>of</strong> the Swan and Canning Rivers will <strong>change</strong>, forced by <strong>climate</strong>. By mid-century, community visions will anticipate a river system materially different from today. Goals for a healthy system will have adapted accordingly. Broadly, <strong>change</strong> in the river system will be driven by the inter-play <strong>of</strong> warming, reduced river infl ows and sea level rise. Ecologically and hydrodynamically the river system will become more marine in character. It is too early to reliably anticipate the pace <strong>of</strong> any systemic <strong>change</strong> but this should become clearer during the next few decades. These <strong>change</strong>s will re-defi ne future criteria <strong>of</strong> river health, productivity and foreshore connection. This report is a fi rst attempt to create scenarios projecting the main components <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>, their possible systemic inter-actions and their management implications.
Page 1 and 2: Potential impacts
Page 3 and 4: 2.2 Impacts on Swan and Canning rRi
Page 5: List of Figures Fi
Page 9 and 10: Increased development of</s
Page 11 and 12: from a diverse range of</st
Page 13 and 14: Figure 1 Mean surface temperature -
Page 15 and 16: 1.1.4 Weather patterns and rainfall
Page 17 and 18: Table 3 Atmospheric CO 2 concentrat
Page 19 and 20: Figure 3 Multi-model averages and a
Page 21 and 22: Table 6 Projected globally averaged
Page 23 and 24: on the region (remote forcing). For
Page 25 and 26: waters leading to low levels <stron
Page 27 and 28: 120 100 80 60 mm 40 20 0 Jan Feb Ma
Page 29 and 30: Table 9 Major water quality trends
Page 31 and 32: Table 10 Observed and projected (so
Page 33 and 34: Table 11 Projected annual mean warm
Page 35 and 36: 1.6.4 Storm surges Storm surge occu
Page 37 and 38: mate (see IOCI 2005d). This leaves
Page 39 and 40: Table 15 Observed and projected (so
Page 41 and 42: 2 POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Page 43 and 44: phorus) in river runof</str
Page 45 and 46: (after microbial decomposition) to
Page 47 and 48: Trophic dynamics Trophic dynamics a
Page 49 and 50: and squid now more consistently abu
Page 51 and 52: pools); and • result in a reducti
Page 53 and 54: the Swan River. Observations <stron
Page 55 and 56: Figure 15 - Waves overtopping a sea
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Human and social economics The prim
Page 59 and 60:
3 Adaptation to the impacts
Page 61 and 62:
Table 19 Climate change</st
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Further, assessment of</str
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Area / issue Likelihood Adverse imp
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Area / issue Likelihood Adverse imp
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extension of mudfl
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• apply planning legislation to l
Page 73 and 74:
Table 23 Economic impacts</
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State and local government planning
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Amelioration / adaptation Provide d
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increase system resilience. Economi
Page 81 and 82:
Acknowledgements Technical Advisory
Page 83 and 84:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Page 85 and 86:
Appendix 1: Draft Scenarios for Swa
Page 87 and 88:
dangerous instabilities in global <
Page 89 and 90:
Table A4 Projected mean winter rain
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Table A9 Qualitative summary <stron
Page 93 and 94:
Appendix 2: Rainfall/streamflow sce
Page 95 and 96:
Parameter Temperature increase deg
Page 97 and 98:
Table 2-3 Projected winter rainfall
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GHG reduced it to 95 %, other anthr
Page 101 and 102:
Appendix 3: Emission Scenarios <str
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improvement rates in all supply and
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Per 30 yrs (2000-2030) = 0.057 to 0
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Black Swan and some ducks but will
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