Produced and Published by Observer Research Foundation 1 Vol. II ...

the Indo-Pacific region. He pointed
out that the original term “pivot”
that came out to describe this
refocus did not resonate well within
the US government as it is easy to
pivot towards something as it is
away from something. He also
noted that the term “rebalance”,
which also came to be used, does
not appropriately describes the
policy as it indicates resource
investment. He noted that the US
refocus was about a commitment
from a policy perspective and a
sense of doing the right thing and
the urgency to be focused. He
stressed the point that there was
need for broad dialogue in the
region so as to determine what
actions should be taken. Admiral
Swift, however, clarified that
“refocus” is not a new term.
Admiral Swift observed that the US
refocus is an acknowledgement of
the fact that the US interests in the
Middle-East had allowed its focus
to be overtly distractive away from
the Indo-Pacific region. Agreeing
that the “Indo-Pacific” region is
the epicentre of the global
economy, he noted that the refocus
is an acknowledgment of the
importance of the region. Admiral
Swift noted that the US refocus is
often seen from a military
perspective. However, he pointed
out, the US 7 th Fleet has been in the
Pacific for seventy years and,
therefore, it is no new to them.
The Admiral said that the
achievements of the US refocus
remains to be seen. He noted that
even as the focus was clearly in the
Indo-Pacific region, the challenge is
to define the right thing to do. He
pointed out that India is working
through this with its Look East
policy. He also stated that there is
talk about a Russian refocus. He
wondered whether the new
Chinese leadership’s visit to Russia
was just a visit or something more
with the centrality to the Indo-
Pacific region.
The Regional Dynamics
Admiral Swift observed that the
probability of conflict in the region
is very low, but the consequences
would be high. He pointed out that
no one in the region seeks conflict,
but there are some dynamics at play
that need to be kept in mind. He
noted that there is predominance
of very weak governments and
governance in the region.
He suggested that one source of
instability in the region comes from
leadership changes. He said that
although the resilience of the
Japanese government has increased
with Prime Minister Abe taking
over that role, there is still much to
be seen. He observed that there is
still some uncertainty about the
new government in South Korea
and there are new governments in
North Korea and China. The
Philippines is going through
elections and it goes around the
region, he said. This vector of
instability is there in the region, he
added.
Another major dynamics is
demographics, Admiral Swift
pointed out. From all perspectives,
demographics play heavily, he
noted. From a global perspective,
he said that India and the United
States are on a firm foundation,
while Japan and China are on the
downside of demographic stability.
He observed that there are
questions about China sustaining
itself because of the one-child
policy of the past. The concern is if
it fails to sustain itself economically
as a country from a demographic
perspective what would this mean
from a policy and a political
perspective, he questioned. He also
wondered if this will accelerate the
desire to establish the Chinese
position on a global stage.
The other vector he identified is
the economic dynamics. There are
many countries that are struggling
with the global downturn, while
there are new players taking
prominent roles that are unique
such as China, he observed. He
suggested that as an emerging
economic power with global
interests, it is normal to expect that
China would look after those global
interests. There is also the
perception of some countries being
more challenged than others such
as Japan and the United States.
Another perception is how long
South Korea would be able to
maintain its continued economic
growth. One of the most important
things the US 7 th Fleet Commander
does is building relationships with
the region to better understand
these dynamics, he said.
Admiral Swift observed that
security for security sake has little
value. The by-product that
countries should be pursuing from
a security perspective is stability
because the outcome of security is
stability, he pointed out. There is
need to use the military resources
in a smart way, or what Joseph Nye
called “smart power” - the
moulding of soft power and hard
Produced and Published by Observer Research Foundation
11