Produced and Published by Observer Research Foundation 1 Vol. II ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

power, Admiral Swift noted. He said this should be the focus from a military perspective as the military itself cannot increase stability because a combined effort is needed. He opined that organisations such as the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN) have been making positive impact in the region in this respect. He suggested that it is important for likeminded governments to embrace the approach to resolving differences between countries through adherence to international norms, standards, rules and laws. These are mechanisms that are developed over time and have served well and rejected the use of coercion and force in resolving these differences, he noted. Emerging Flashpoints in the Region He said a trigger could be a territorial claim or dispute and there are many of them throughout the region. This would be precipitated by the powers with an interest in a given specific claim, he opined. He noted that a trigger could be something along the lines of what happened between China and the Philippines with the Scarborough Reef last year where unintended consequence of a police action taken against the fishermen escalated into as something big. He also said that it could be along the context of a misunderstanding, as in the Senkakus where the Japanese government felt that it was taking proactive measures to deescalate the situation when the Tokyo Governor wanted to buy the Senkakus and the government said it would buy the islands and not allow an individual to have sway. This was seen by the Chinese as a nationalisation of the disputed territory, he observed. He also noted that it would not be a specific issue that could be predictive and this, he said, is a source of concern. Admiral Swift noted that it is not possible to look ahead six months and predict high probability of an incident happening in a given area. He suggested that where there is no unanimity on the utilization of international norms, standards, rules and laws, there would be concerns because there is a higher potential of friction and conflict where two concepts clash, one is national laws and the other is international laws. This is the essence of the challenge that the region faces today, he said. China: Establishing a New Equilibrium Admiral Swift observed that China is trying to establish a new equilibrium. He pointed out that whether China is desirous of the standards on which the world is governed today remains to be seen. Furthermore, he observed that it is up to the international community to decide whether an application of a new rule set is acceptable. Admiral Swift suggested that a majority of countries in Asia do not think that the present international norms need to be changed, at least the mechanism by which they operate. He noted that the Philippines and the Japanese do not feel the need. He observed that as an emerging power with global interests China has a say on what the rule set should be. He also noted that the rule set changes over time but that changes should be made from within the existing system, and this is a challenge that the world is facing today. He observed that the world always seeks a sense of balance and equilibrium. Even as China’s effort to find its way up is understandable, its rise has disturbed the balance, he noted. Admiral Swift suggested that China is also working through what role would it play and how will it play that role on the global stage, and by what rule sets. He observed that China is trying to establish a new equilibrium but it is sometimes against the balance of consensus from a global perspective. There is bound to be friction as this pendulum of equilibrium swings back and forth, he noted. As it swings back and forth there is need to be mindful not to stop that pendulum in a specific place because that is done with military force, he said. He noted that military power is disruptive by nature and it should absolutely be the last resort. He pointed out that China and the US have much more in common than competition though much of the focus is on those areas where there is competition. Admiral Swift suggested that room would need to be made to accommodate China and that is a challenge, he said. He also noted that the world is going through an adjustment period and eventually Produced and Published by Observer Research Foundation 12
there would be an accommodation made in the context of international norms, standards, rules and laws with China. Admiral Swift rejected the notion that the world is entering into another cold war. The Cold War between the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union was a result of the great doubt on both sides about each other’s strength that led to great uncertainty around the world about which was more powerful and consequently who would side with who became a matter of concern globally, he explained. That is not the case where the world is today, he said. Because of its economic weight, China is a global power from a policy perspective, but from a military perspective, it is a regional power, he observed. Hence, the perspective of power is different in the Cold War context, he added. The Unpredictable North Korea Admiral Swift observed that North Korea is the primary concern today because it is difficult to predict exactly what the government in North Korea is striving for. He noted that Kim Jong-un’s recent success of getting a satellite in the space followed by a nuclear test and now the latest ratcheting up of tensions are of great concern. Even as Pyongyang is said to be seeking a dialogue with the United States, its method of threatening to generate a discussion is not acceptable, he pointed out. Admiral Swift noted that the United States takes the threat seriously and it has been taking measures to reduce the risk. He said the US is in a dialogue with other countries in the region that are equally concerned about how destabilizing an open conflict would create and the fact that it would be the first order consequences, the second and third order consequences from an economic perspective. He observed that the capabilities that some attribute to North Korea are somewhat exaggerated, even though the risk is a serious one. The danger is the unpredictability and without understanding the goal of North Korea, it is difficult to develop a policy approach that would deescalate the situation, he suggested. Admiral Swift said that all the rhetoric coming out of North Korea may be something that is a cover for something smaller that might occur in the background and needs to pay attention to, he said. He noted that North Korea would not utilize international norms, standards, rules and laws to resolve disputes, given that it is not even approachable in a dialogue. South China Sea and the Senkakus/Diaoyu Islands Admiral Swift noted that China may understand the necessity of turning to international arbitration to resolve the territorial issues, if not value the global norms. With respect to the Philippines bringing its claim in Scarborough Reef to international arbitration, he said, the Chinese rejection would not matter as the issue would be resolved by the international tribunal with or without China’s participation. He observed that China’s position has been clear all along in rejecting multilateral resolution, but its bilateral approach to resolving differences is problematic, he added. He observed that taking the issue to an international court empowers other countries in the region and the move itself is a victory, even as China rejects the outcome. Admiral Swift made an interesting observation about what if China were to win the case in absentia. This would raise the dilemma whether it would embrace international arbitration or not. He also pointed out that Vietnam may be interested in pursuing the Philippines’ way. On the Senkaku issue, Admiral Swift noted that Japan is unwilling to acknowledge that there is a dispute because from the Japanese perspective the acknowledgment of the dispute diminishes the power of their opposition. He also noted that China thought that the same model that proved successful with Scarborough Reef would gain the same level of success with the Senkakus. Admiral Swift said Taiwan does not support the Chinese position on the disputed island. The Taiwanese position is that the Chinese claim is not valid and that their claim to the island is valid, he added. The great risk is that if there is no arbitration and dialogue to resolve these issues, the unfortunate experience globally is, people turn to force, he pointed out. On Japan’s move towards relaxing some of their laws to govern their activities of self-defence, Admiral Swift observed that Tokyo appears Produced and Published by Observer Research Foundation 13
Page 1 and 2: Vol. II, Issue 5 - May 2013 THE ISS
Page 3 and 4: MEDIA WATCH Chinese officials fill
Page 5 and 6: the Senkakus, five other ships —
Page 7 and 8: from Japan’s foreign and defense
Page 9 and 10: In accordance with international la
Page 11: the Indo-Pacific region. He pointed
Page 15: Perspective”, CNAS, 9 January 201

Produced and Published by Observer Research Foundation 1 Vol. II ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?