Produced and Published by Observer Research Foundation 1 Vol. II ...
Produced and Published by Observer Research Foundation 1 Vol. II ...
Produced and Published by Observer Research Foundation 1 Vol. II ...
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power, Admiral Swift noted. He<br />
said this should be the focus from a<br />
military perspective as the military<br />
itself cannot increase stability<br />
because a combined effort is<br />
needed. He opined that<br />
organisations such as the Western<br />
Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS)<br />
<strong>and</strong> Association of Southeast Asian<br />
Nations ( ASEAN) have been<br />
making positive impact in the<br />
region in this respect.<br />
He suggested that it is important<br />
for likeminded governments to<br />
embrace the approach to resolving<br />
differences between countries<br />
through adherence to international<br />
norms, st<strong>and</strong>ards, rules <strong>and</strong> laws.<br />
These are mechanisms that are<br />
developed over time <strong>and</strong> have<br />
served well <strong>and</strong> rejected the use of<br />
coercion <strong>and</strong> force in resolving<br />
these differences, he noted.<br />
Emerging Flashpoints in the<br />
Region<br />
He said a trigger could be a<br />
territorial claim or dispute <strong>and</strong><br />
there are many of them throughout<br />
the region. This would be<br />
precipitated <strong>by</strong> the powers with an<br />
interest in a given specific claim, he<br />
opined. He noted that a trigger<br />
could be something along the lines<br />
of what happened between China<br />
<strong>and</strong> the Philippines with the<br />
Scarborough Reef last year where<br />
unintended consequence of a<br />
police action taken against the<br />
fishermen escalated into as<br />
something big. He also said that it<br />
could be along the context of a<br />
misunderst<strong>and</strong>ing, as in the<br />
Senkakus where the Japanese<br />
government felt that it was taking<br />
proactive measures to deescalate<br />
the situation when the Tokyo<br />
Governor wanted to buy the<br />
Senkakus <strong>and</strong> the government said<br />
it would buy the isl<strong>and</strong>s <strong>and</strong> not<br />
allow an individual to have sway.<br />
This was seen <strong>by</strong> the Chinese as a<br />
nationalisation of the disputed<br />
territory, he observed.<br />
He also noted that it would not be<br />
a specific issue that could be<br />
predictive <strong>and</strong> this, he said, is a<br />
source of concern. Admiral Swift<br />
noted that it is not possible to look<br />
ahead six months <strong>and</strong> predict high<br />
probability of an incident<br />
happening in a given area. He<br />
suggested that where there is no<br />
unanimity on the utilization of<br />
international norms, st<strong>and</strong>ards,<br />
rules <strong>and</strong> laws, there would be<br />
concerns because there is a higher<br />
potential of friction <strong>and</strong> conflict<br />
where two concepts clash, one is<br />
national laws <strong>and</strong> the other is<br />
international laws. This is the<br />
essence of the challenge that the<br />
region faces today, he said.<br />
China: Establishing a New<br />
Equilibrium<br />
Admiral Swift observed that China<br />
is trying to establish a new<br />
equilibrium. He pointed out that<br />
whether China is desirous of the<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards on which the world is<br />
governed today remains to be seen.<br />
Furthermore, he observed that it is<br />
up to the international community<br />
to decide whether an application of<br />
a new rule set is acceptable.<br />
Admiral Swift suggested that a<br />
majority of countries in Asia do not<br />
think that the present international<br />
norms need to be changed, at least<br />
the mechanism <strong>by</strong> which they<br />
operate. He noted that the<br />
Philippines <strong>and</strong> the Japanese do not<br />
feel the need. He observed that as<br />
an emerging power with global<br />
interests China has a say on what<br />
the rule set should be. He also<br />
noted that the rule set changes over<br />
time but that changes should be<br />
made from within the existing<br />
system, <strong>and</strong> this is a challenge that<br />
the world is facing today.<br />
He observed that the world always<br />
seeks a sense of balance <strong>and</strong><br />
equilibrium. Even as China’s effort<br />
to find its way up is<br />
underst<strong>and</strong>able, its rise has<br />
disturbed the balance, he noted.<br />
Admiral Swift suggested that China<br />
is also working through what role<br />
would it play <strong>and</strong> how will it play<br />
that role on the global stage, <strong>and</strong> <strong>by</strong><br />
what rule sets. He observed that<br />
China is trying to establish a new<br />
equilibrium but it is sometimes<br />
against the balance of consensus<br />
from a global perspective. There is<br />
bound to be friction as this<br />
pendulum of equilibrium swings<br />
back <strong>and</strong> forth, he noted. As it<br />
swings back <strong>and</strong> forth there is need<br />
to be mindful not to stop that<br />
pendulum in a specific place<br />
because that is done with military<br />
force, he said. He noted that<br />
military power is disruptive <strong>by</strong><br />
nature <strong>and</strong> it should absolutely be<br />
the last resort. He pointed out that<br />
China <strong>and</strong> the US have much more<br />
in common than competition<br />
though much of the focus is on<br />
those areas where there is<br />
competition.<br />
Admiral Swift suggested that room<br />
would need to be made to<br />
accommodate China <strong>and</strong> that is a<br />
challenge, he said. He also noted<br />
that the world is going through an<br />
adjustment period <strong>and</strong> eventually<br />
<strong>Produced</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Published</strong> <strong>by</strong> <strong>Observer</strong> <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Foundation</strong><br />
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