report - Oceans Beyond Piracy

THE ECONOMIC COST OF SOMALI PIRACY, 2012
Second, basic user error sometimes results in faulty information. Finally, some users simply choose not to steam
through the HRA with their AIS transponders switched on. Moreover, there are variables such as current, wind,
and hull condition that affect a ship’s fuel consumption rate that are not captured in our data.
Nonetheless, our results are in line with our previous estimate that $2.7 billion was spent on increased speeds in
2011, especially when held up against our finding that both the proportion of ships speeding and the amount by
which they speed dropped from 2011 to 2012. Moreover, our finding that there are over 65,000 annual transits
through the Indian Ocean each year (as opposed to the 42,450 estimated in 2011) is in line with estimates given
by those familiar with vessel tracking and reporting practices. Thus despite the shortcomings inherent in our
methodology, our result falls well within reasonably acceptable estimates that have been endorsed by experts in
the field.
In addition to providing information on the cost of increased speed, the satellite AIS data used in this section
sheds some light on different ships’ abilities to comply with BMP4’s recommendation that ships transiting the
HRA should travel at a speed of at least 18 knots, as well as the effects of the summer and winter monsoon
seasons on steaming practices.
The chart below makes two separate but related points about BMP compliance. The first is that not all ships are
equally able to steam at 18 knots. In 2011 and 2012, the proportion of tankers steaming at or above 18 knots
was between 5% and 6%, while the proportion of other cargo ships travelling at the BMP recommended speed
was above 20%. Second, the decrease in the proportion of ships that reduced their speed in 2012 was much
more pronounced in other cargo ships than tankers, with the former seeing a 24.3% reduction and the latter
seeing a 6.3% reduction.
Proportion Steaming at or Above 18 knots by Year
Tankers Other Cargo Ships All Ships
2011 5.75% 27.21% 20.02%
2012 5.39% 20.59% 15.33%
Additionally, much has been made about the impact of monsoon seasons on maritime piracy. 73 However the
following chart suggests that these seasonal variations have minimal impact on steaming practices:
Proportion Steaming at or Above 18 knots, Monsoons Versus Interim Periods
Tankers Other Cargo Ships All Ships
2011 Monsoons 4.64% 26.77% 19.19%
2011 Interims 6.65% 27.56% 20.67%
2012 Monsoons 5.01% 21.01% 15.41%
2012 Interims 5.78% 20.18% 15.26%
Throughout 2011 and 2012, the proportion of ships steaming at or above 18 knots changed very little in
response to differences between the summer and winter monsoon seasons and the interim periods between
those seasons. In the past two years, the most pronounced effect that the monsoon seasons had on steaming
was a 2% increase in tankers steaming at or above 18 knots during 2011. The average observed change between
monsoon seasons and interim periods was under 1%, and fewer ships travelled at or above 18 knots during
interim periods than monsoon seasons in 2012. This is not to say that the summer and winter monsoon seasons
have no impact on maritime piracy; it is only to say that they appear to have little to no impact on commercial
steaming practices.
a project of One Earth Future Foundation ©2013
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