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to follow changes in electrical load. System effects
refer to the costs above plant-level costs to supply
electricity at a given load and level of security of
supply. The report focuses on “grid-level system
costs”, the subset of system costs mediated by the
electricity grid, which include i) the costs for extending
and reinforcing transport and distribution grids
as well as for connecting new capacity to the grid,
and ii) the costs for increased short-term balancing
and for maintaining the long-term adequacy of
electricity supply. System costs are increasingly capturing
the attention of electricity industry experts
and decision-makers due to the large system costs
of decentralised, intermittent renewables such as
wind and solar. Not accounting for system costs
means adding implicit subsidies to already sizeable
explicit subsidies. As long as this situation continues,
dispatchable technologies will increasingly not
be replaced as they reach the end of their operating
lifetimes, thereby weakening security of supply.
The existence of sizeable system costs implies
that significant changes will be needed to generate
the flexibility required for an economically viable
coexistence of nuclear energy and renewables in
increasingly decarbonised electricity systems. This
includes carbon prices, long-term contracts and
capacity mechanisms in order to provide adequate
incentives for investment in dispatchable low carbon
technologies such as nuclear.
Two other important studies were pursued in 2012
on the economics of the back end of the fuel cycle
and the economics of long-term operation of nuclear
power plants. The former study will be concluded
in 2013, and considers the cost of final disposal for
three scenarios relating to the once-through cycle,
partial recycling and a cycle involving fast reactors.
The study on the economics of long-term operation
(LTO) of nuclear power plants was published in
December. The study found that in nearly all cases,
the continued operation of nuclear power plants
for at least ten more years is profitable, even taking
into account the additional costs of post-Fukushima
modifications. The preliminary estimates of the economic
impact of post-Fukushima modifications are
about 10‐17% of the initially projected LTO investment.
Despite the economic attractiveness of LTO,
there are several risks and uncertainties that can
influence the utilities’ decision to extend the operational
lifetime of a plant, such as public acceptance,
changes in national policies or security concerns.
projections developed in the Red Book indicate that
demand for uranium is expected to continue to rise
in the foreseeable future.
Nuclear Energy Data 2012, an annual publication
that aims to keep member countries abreast of the
latest nuclear power developments in OECD countries,
was published in September. The 2012 edition
has been written in light of the real and potential
impacts of the Fukushima Daiichi accident.
Security of supply of medical
radioisotopes
The NEA continued its efforts related to improving
the global security of supply of molybdenum-99
( 99 Mo) and its decay product, technetium-99m ( 99m Tc),
which is the most widely used medical radioisotope.
The High-level Group on the Security of Supply of
Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR) completed work
on capacity and cost impacts from converting to
the use of low-enriched uranium (LEU) targets for
99
Mo production with the release of a report entitled
The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes: Market Impacts of
Converting to Low-enriched Uranium Targets for Medical
Isotope Production. Evidence presented in the report
indicates that governments have a role in encouraging
manufacturers to convert to LEU fuel and targets
in order to mitigate proliferation and security risks
and ensure a long-term, secure supply of this important
medical isotope.
As a direct action to monitor implementation of
the principles of the HLG-MR policy approach, the
NEA has undertaken a review of the 99 Mo/ 99m Tc supply
chain by means of a self-assessment by supply
chain participants. The objectives of the review are
to analyse and report on progress made by supply
chain participants in implementing the HLG-MR
policy approach, with a particular focus on full-cost
recovery, outage reserve capacity and the role of
governments in the market. A report on the selfassessment
will be issued in 2013.
Data and resources
Published in July by the NEA in co-operation with the
IAEA, Uranium 2011: Resources, Production and Demand,
commonly referred to as the “Red Book”, shows that
uranium resources and production have been on
the rise and that the security of uranium supply is
assured for the long term. Total identified resources
have increased by 12% since 2009. Despite nuclear
phase-out policies in three countries in western
Europe and delays in nuclear development in other
countries as a result of the Fukushima accident,
Contact:
Ron Cameron
Head, Nuclear Development Division
+33 (0)1 45 24 10 60
ron.cameron@oecd.org
NEA Annual Report 2012
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