Uncertainty in Forecasting
Uncertainty in Forecasting
Uncertainty in Forecasting
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Key Po<strong>in</strong>ts<br />
• Knowledge of the behavior of forecast<br />
uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty is important for users and<br />
producers of forecasts<br />
• Characteristics of forecast uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty is known<br />
for states and counties; <strong>in</strong>formation for<br />
subcounty areas lack<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• Options for <strong>in</strong>corporat<strong>in</strong>g uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong>to<br />
forecasts vary <strong>in</strong> resource requirements and<br />
political sensitivity<br />
• 96% of state and regional agencies surveyed<br />
currently or plan to <strong>in</strong>corporate uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong>to<br />
their forecasts<br />
COG/MPO Model<strong>in</strong>g Conference, July 17, 2009, San Diego, CA<br />
3
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