Uncertainty in Forecasting
Uncertainty in Forecasting
Uncertainty in Forecasting
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Quandary Fac<strong>in</strong>g Forecasters<br />
• Forecast<strong>in</strong>g is impossible yet unavoidable<br />
• Forecasts are needed for decision-mak<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
must be <strong>in</strong> the form of numbers<br />
• Forecasts <strong>in</strong>variably turn out to be different<br />
than the numbers that occur<br />
• Users demand that forecasts meet standards<br />
of accuracy that exceed those commonly<br />
accepted as reasonable by forecasters<br />
COG/MPO Model<strong>in</strong>g Conference, July 17, 2009, San Diego, CA<br />
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