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Uncertainty in Forecasting

Uncertainty in Forecasting

Quandary

Quandary Facing Forecasters • Forecasting is impossible yet unavoidable • Forecasts are needed for decision-making and must be in the form of numbers • Forecasts invariably turn out to be different than the numbers that occur • Users demand that forecasts meet standards of accuracy that exceed those commonly accepted as reasonable by forecasters COG/MPO Modeling Conference, July 17, 2009, San Diego, CA 4

Value of Understanding Forecast Uncertainty • Forecasting is an uncertain business • Presence of uncertainty is inherent in management or policy decisions • Make forecasts more valuable to planners, policy makers, and the public • Better decisions regarding potential costs and benefits that rely on forecasts • Improve forecasting methods and processes COG/MPO Modeling Conference, July 17, 2009, San Diego, CA 5

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