Technical University Munich Commodities as an Asset Class - risklab
Technical University Munich Commodities as an Asset Class - risklab
Technical University Munich Commodities as an Asset Class - risklab
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Contents<br />
1 Introduction 1<br />
2 Overview of Commodity Markets 4<br />
2.1 The different Commodity Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5<br />
2.1.1 Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7<br />
2.1.1.1 Crude Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7<br />
2.1.1.2 Natural G<strong>as</strong> . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12<br />
2.1.2 Metals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15<br />
2.1.2.1 Precious Metals exemplified by Gold . . . . . . . . . 16<br />
2.1.2.2 Industrial Metals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19<br />
2.1.3 Agricultures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21<br />
2.1.3.1 Softs exemplified by Cocoa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23<br />
2.1.3.2 Grains exemplified by Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25<br />
2.1.3.3 Livestock exemplified by Live <strong>an</strong>d Feeder Cattle . . . 26<br />
2.2 Characteristics of Commodity Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28<br />
2.3 Trading <strong>Commodities</strong> . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31<br />
2.3.1 Commodity Derivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32<br />
2.3.1.1 Forwards <strong>an</strong>d Futures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33<br />
2.3.1.2 Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35<br />
2.3.1.3 Swaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37<br />
2.3.1.4 Commodity Linked Structured Notes . . . . . . . . . 38<br />
2.3.1.5 Certificates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39<br />
2.3.2 M<strong>an</strong>aged Futures Funds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39<br />
2.3.3 Stocks of Commodity Producing Comp<strong>an</strong>ies . . . . . . . . . . 41<br />
3 Pricing of Commodity Futures 44<br />
3.1 The Risk Premium Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45<br />
3.2 The Convenience Yield Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50<br />
3.3 Relationship of the Risk Premium <strong>an</strong>d Convenience Yield Model . . . 53<br />
3.4 Stoch<strong>as</strong>tic Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55<br />
3.4.1 One Factor Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56<br />
3.4.2 Two Factor Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63<br />
3.4.3 Three Factor Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70<br />
4 Commodity Indices 73<br />
4.1 Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74<br />
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