Chapter 5 - Information - 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission

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2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission—Interim Report 5 INFORMATION 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15 Expert witnesses agreed that current FDI scales provide insufficient information on the severity of fires, and they highlighted the importance of revisiting the FDI and the related fire danger ratings. 22 The indices and ratings need to be enhanced to reflect a meaningful set of numbers and language to express fire danger ratings above the present FDI 50+ (Extreme) category. This would assist in informing and educating the community about the graduated degree of risk on days when the FDI exceeds 50. A revised FDI that retains its purpose as an operational tool, indicating the level of fire risk and the difficulty of suppression, could also provide the community with a more objective indicator of potential fire intensity. The Commonwealth agreed that research should be undertaken to explore the option of including an additional fire danger rating beyond ‘Extreme’. 23 The Commonwealth noted, however, that this would require careful consideration because, presently, FDI values above 100 are not supported by fire suppression research. This is accepted, and it is assumed that the validity of values over 100 would be considered in the proposed research. In its written submissions, the State also supported this proposal. It suggested it would, however, await the outcomes of a reconsideration of the FFDI and GFDI being undertaken by the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) before implementing any Commission recommendations on this issue. 24 The work of AFAC, to which reference was made by Ms Jillian Edwards, pertains to a new approach to bushfire warnings, dealt with in Chapter 4 of this report. 25 In supporting the proposed recommendation AFAC suggested that it, the Bushfire CRC and the BoM be included in the parties that could explore the options for revisiting the fire danger ratings. 26 Given that the Bushfire CRC, the CSIRO and a number of universities are potential recipients of research funds for this work, the Commission makes no recommendation on which body should be invited to undertake this research. RECOMMENDATION 5.1 The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council and the Bureau of Meteorology collaborate with researchers to explore options for the fire danger indices and fire danger ratings including: ■■ ■■ ■■ an additional fire danger rating beyond ‘Extreme’; adjusting the existing fire danger ratings to correspond to higher Fire Danger Index values; and developing a revised fire severity scale for use in bushfire warnings based on new fire danger ratings. Making the FDI Available to the Public 5.16 The BoM issues the FDI every afternoon for a selection of locations in each forecast district. When a rating of 50 or more is forecast at two or more locations, the BoM issues a Fire Weather Warning for that district after consulting with the CFA and the Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE). 27 5.17 5.18 The BoM makes the FDI available to the public, but only in the fire weather forecasts posted to the BoM website on the afternoon before the day in question. 28 The FDI is not included in the general weather forecasts posted on the BoM website or in material distributed to the media. Dr Williams accepted that if people knew where to look they could have accessed information about the FDI late on Friday, 6 February 2009 on the BoM website, but there was no general broadcast by the BoM of the FDI for 7 February. 29 Dr Williams was asked whether there was any reason why the FFDI and GFDI could not be provided with future general forecasts issued by the BoM. 158 Well, that’s an interesting question. It could be. I guess my concern is that I don’t know how well they would be understood. People like numbers and obviously the higher the number, the more extreme the fire danger index is. It is there for the 24 hour forecast so I suppose they could be made available for longer periods. We calculate them routinely, we do them every day. 30
Information 5.19 5.20 It does appear to be the case, as Dr Williams puts it, that ‘people like numbers’. The BoM is an extraordinarily popular site — one of the most popular in Australia. 31 The site received 75 million hits on 7 February, which compares with a daily average number of approximately 44 million hits. 32 This provides some indication of the level of public interest in the weather forecasts and fire information the BoM is able to provide. A number of lay witnesses expressed a desire to have the FDI published more widely and for it to be more readily available. Typical of these views was Ms Jesse Odgers of Kinglake, who said: I feel the information is absolutely essential and I would like to educate myself more as to better understand what those indexes mean because they are going to assist me in making a more informed choice about when to leave. It assists me in that somebody external to me who is educated and experienced in fire is going to be able to give me an external assessment as to the danger other than a broad message such as that it is a total fire ban day or it is a day of extreme fire danger. So the more information that we can receive the more informed we will be and the more informed choices we can make. 33 5.21 Mr Ken Rogers of St Andrews noted that he was surprised after the fires to learn that a fire severity index exists and felt that information about such an index would have helped him to decide whether to stay or go. 34 Mr David Brown of Strathewen also expressed a desire to have had access to the information that the FDI was forecast to be in excess of 100 in his area. 35 He said that it would be a very graphic way of demonstrating the level of potential risk: When you have an index that normally runs from nought to 100 as its top end and it was registering 328, that is a very graphic illustration of the seriousness of the potential event and I think that would have been quite easy for people to understand … 36 5.22 5.23 5.24 5.25 Dr Chris Harvey of Kinglake expressed a similar view that the FDI should be more readily available to the public, and accompanied by education about its meaning. 37 Ms Karen Ward of Mudgegonga also said that had she ‘known how high the fire danger index was for that day,’ she would have left as soon as she knew of a fire in the area, because she would have known ‘how bad the fire was going to be’. 38 It therefore appears that in times of fire threat, the public has a strong desire for fire knowledge and information. It appears likely that there are as many in the community who prefer to have access to FDI figures, as there are those who find language such as high or extreme helpful and it would, therefore, assist the public to have ready access to the FDI. When asked whether there was any reason why the FDI is not provided to the community by the CFA with the other information provided about bushfires, Mr Russell Rees, Chief Officer, CFA, responded: Only in the sense that to understand those figures ... you need to understand what they mean so there needs to be an educative process and the language of low, moderate to extreme, high extreme is the language that is considered best to explain that scenario. If we move to explain those numbers it is a bit like using the UV index. If I say, ‘the UV index today is 35’ what does that mean to you and I? But if I said, ‘it is extreme today’, the chances are we would take action and put sunscreen on. 39 40 5.26 But Mr Rees accepted that if one provided the FDI in conjunction with ‘the words as well’ this ‘would be fine’. 5.27 5.28 In relation to Mr Rees’ concerns that some may not understand the index figures, it is expected that the FDI would be provided in combination with the fire danger rating descriptors. In short, the numbers and words would be provided together. Of course, it is also desirable that information be available to the public about the meaning of both these resources. The FDI should be placed in easily accessible publicly available material, along with the fire danger rating, to increase the prospect that the message is understood by the widest possible sector of the community, including those who ‘like numbers’ and those who find language more comprehensible. 159
Page 1 and 2: INFORMATION 5
Page 3: Information Table 5.2: Fire danger
Page 7 and 8: Information 5.38 Counsel Assisting
Page 9 and 10: Information 69 5.51 The BoM website
Page 11 and 12: Information 5.69 The technical and
Page 13 and 14: Information 5.90 5.91 5.92 5.93 5.9
Page 15 and 16: Information 5.101 Table 5.3 indicat
Page 17 and 18: Information 5.118 Some aspects of t

Chapter 5 - Information - 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission

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