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Consumer Brands & Retail Global luxury goods – Equity March 2013 abc Macau retail sales breakdown (2011-12) MOPbn 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 +22% 36% 37% 11% 9% 11% 9% 14% 14% 29% 30% 2011 2012 Others Adults' Clothing Leather Goods Department Store Watches & Jewelry Source: Macau DSEC On a per capita basis, Macau ranks first in terms of tourism receipts (USD50,002 per citizen) 4500 4000 >50,000 3917 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 1388 1296 822 708 573 475 373 500 0 36 Macao Hong Kong Australia Spain France Italy United Kingdom Germany United States China Source: UNWTO (as of June 2012), HSBC calculations Macau gross gaming revenue 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 VIP GGR Mass GGR Mass grow th (RHS) VIP grow th (RHS) 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% Source: HSBC calculations, DSEC 47
Consumer Brands & Retail Global luxury goods – Equity March 2013 abc Taiwan: Japan with tourists? Market dynamics resembling those of Japan, not just for historical and cultural reasons, Chinese influence barely starting to be felt Tourist-targeting infrastructure slowly becoming more qualitative Becoming the next Hong Kong? Wishful thinking, for now… China/Japan influences Why history counts Consumers, brand managers and retailers that we have met in Taipei haven’t conveyed a message that would make us at all confident about the prospects of the local consumer for high-end brands. Historically and culturally, the Taiwanese have very strong ties with Japan. There is also a long history with mainland China; remember that the People's Republic succeeded the Republic of China (which had withdrawn to Taiwan in 1949) as the holder of China's seat in the United Nations in 1971; neither has Taiwan succeeded in its attempts to join the WTO. If history has any influence on consumer behaviour, it is not surprising that Taiwan is stuck between a sluggish Japan-like local luxury market and the prospects of strong growth coming from mainland tourists. We take the view though that for now the former dominates the latter and that overall, growth should not impress in the near term. Taiwanese may be in awe of China’s economic growth but are wary of the side effects (pollution, corruption, single party politics, speed) and the society is probably one of the most environmentally aware. Interviewees also pride themselves on a better work/life balance than in many other parts of Asia. Taiwan ranked as one of the highest Asian countries on Forbes’ ranking of the world’s happiest countries. The Japanese influence can be felt in manners, attention to detail, fascination for food, general retail (Far East Sogo and Shinkong Mitsukoshi are the two dominant operators) as well as edgy niche retail concepts that are not “me-too” but really draw on local consumer insights (eg 85 o C coffee chain not imitating Starbuck’s slavishly). Many of the successful Chinese consumer and tech companies are of Taiwanese origin (Tingyi, WantWant, Daphne, UniPresident, Yue Yuen, Stella, Foxconn). Online retailing is also a big thing with Yahoo very successful and again, edgy concepts such as Lativ, a well-known online fashion retailer (with no brick and mortar stores). 48
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