slides here - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
slides here - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
slides here - Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
Ian Robertson,<br />
CEO
Welcome: AQN Investor Day 2012<br />
Some recurring themes…<br />
• AQN provides its investors stable<br />
exposure to the regulated and nonregulated<br />
utilities sectors<br />
• AQN has proved its ability to<br />
seamlessly execute on identified<br />
growth initiatives<br />
• AQN continues to have line of sight to<br />
significant value creation initiatives<br />
over the coming years<br />
“Still lots of gas in the AQN tank”<br />
3
Uncertain Economic Backdrop<br />
Safe and stable returns in an unstable environment<br />
• Global Economy<br />
• Faltering growth<br />
• Stagnating unemployment<br />
• Recovery timeline uncertain<br />
• Regulated <strong>Utilities</strong>: Safe Harbour<br />
• Rate-regulated essential services<br />
• Steady and predictable cash-flows<br />
• Significant portion of AQN earnings<br />
• Non-Regulated <strong>Utilities</strong>: Certainty in Uncertain Environment<br />
• Lack of bold policy support for renewable generation<br />
• Low natural gas prices have made renewable economics challenging<br />
• AQN contracted project pipeline ensures medium term growth 4
Regulated vs. Non-Regulated <strong>Utilities</strong><br />
Two sides to the same coin<br />
Similarities<br />
Part of the utility service distribution chain – generation, transmission distribution<br />
Based on investment highly similar long-lived physical assets<br />
Earnings largely driven by balance sheet<br />
Management of on-going CAPEX is key to business success<br />
Expectation to deliver reliable service<br />
5
Regulated vs. Non-Regulated <strong>Utilities</strong><br />
Two sides to the same coin<br />
Differences Regulated <strong>Utilities</strong> Non-Regulated<br />
<strong>Utilities</strong><br />
Revenue Cost based Market based / PPA<br />
Operating cost risk Borne by ratepayers Borne by AQN<br />
Interest rate risk Borne by ratepayers Borne by AQN<br />
Impact of CAPEX Earning opportunity Reduces return<br />
Typical equity returns 9-11% 11-14%<br />
6
Management Styles<br />
Different Management Styles for Different Environments<br />
Non-Regulated <strong>Utilities</strong><br />
Regulated <strong>Utilities</strong><br />
Margin Maximization:<br />
“Maximize returns in the<br />
context of risk”<br />
Risk Minimization:<br />
“Minimize risk in the<br />
context of fixed returns”<br />
Human Resources Entrepreneurial approach Customer-centric, full service<br />
Capital Reinvestment Highly controlled Prudency governed<br />
Risk Management<br />
Risk-return trade-off to be<br />
considered<br />
No incremental risks to be<br />
assumed<br />
7
Strategy Development Objectives<br />
Robust and Flexible Strategies are the Key to Success<br />
AQN objectives in strategy development:<br />
• Faultlessly execute on committed growth initiatives<br />
• Grow the business in the face of the evolving economic,<br />
political and regulatory landscapes<br />
• Manage our human resource strategies to keep pace<br />
• Maintain market and investor confidence<br />
8
Business Management in the Face of Uncertainty<br />
Some Common Consensus Views<br />
Impact on APUC<br />
U.S. economic recovery will continue to be<br />
anemic through 2013.<br />
Stagnant Economy<br />
Robust Recovery<br />
U.S Production Tax Credits will not be<br />
renewed promptly.<br />
Expire Un-renewed<br />
Are Renewed<br />
Interest rates will remain at current levels<br />
for the near term.<br />
Rates Unchanged<br />
Rates Rise<br />
Natural gas pricing will remain low for<br />
foreseeable future.<br />
NG Price Stays Low<br />
NG Price Rises<br />
9
2013 Growth Plans<br />
Non-Regulated <strong>Utilities</strong><br />
Regulated <strong>Utilities</strong><br />
• Complete the pipeline of existing PPAs<br />
• Take advantage of equipment<br />
procurement opportunities<br />
• Minimize exposure to change in<br />
macro-economic factors<br />
• Continue accretive acquisitions<br />
• Outbound calls to potential sellers<br />
• Maintain discipline approach to value<br />
• Successfully execute closing and<br />
transition of acquisitions<br />
• Exploit core development competency<br />
• Focus on contracted t wind, solar and<br />
small natural gas generating<br />
opportunities<br />
• Enhance focus on organic growth<br />
• Foster entrepreneurial spirit it within our<br />
State organizations<br />
• Drive roll-up opportunities in existing<br />
footprint<br />
10
Success to Date and Go Forward Targets<br />
On target to achieve 2010 stated goal of $2B in assets<br />
and over $200M in EBITDA by 2014<br />
• Re-stated Growth Objectives for 2013<br />
• Continue 15% CAGR Asset and EBITDA growth<br />
• Continue to drive EPS and CFPS by >5% CAGR<br />
• Our “March to a Million” by 2017<br />
• Liberty <strong>Utilities</strong>: targeting 1,000,000 regulated<br />
utility customers<br />
• APCo: targeting ti 1,000,000 kw of finstalled nonregulated<br />
generating capacity<br />
11
Continuing the Trajectory<br />
• Separate business origination teams with a demonstrated record of success<br />
• Identified growth opportunities providing more than 100% increase in assets<br />
and EBITDA<br />
• Low payout ratio, strong equity relationship with Emera provide accretive<br />
sources of capital to fund growth<br />
Illustrative<br />
EPS/FFOPS Dividend id d Payout Model<br />
2011<br />
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016<br />
Dividend Payout Model<br />
Current Dividends Dividends<br />
12
David Bronicheski,<br />
CFO
Year in Review<br />
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT<br />
$95 MM - EQUITY<br />
APUC EQUITY ISSUE<br />
$100 MM - DEBT<br />
LIBERTY BANK FACILITY<br />
$60 MM - EQUITY<br />
APUC CONVERSION OF CDs<br />
$60 MM - EQUITY<br />
EMERA SUB RECEIPTS<br />
$155 MM - DEBT<br />
UPSIZE APCo BANK FACILITY<br />
$225 MM - DEBT<br />
US PRIVATE PLACEMENT<br />
$60 MM - EQUITY<br />
EMERA SUB RECEIPTS<br />
• $755 million of financings over the last 12 months<br />
• Access to capital remains strong 14
Credit Positive Developments<br />
• <strong>Corp</strong>orate BBB - credit rating<br />
• Outlook moved to “positive”<br />
• Liberty debt rating BBB (high)<br />
• Contributing factors:<br />
• Firm commitment to an investment<br />
grade credit rating with target of BBB flat<br />
• <strong>Corp</strong>orate level financing platforms<br />
• No near term debt maturities<br />
• Conversion of CDs to equity<br />
• Lengthening PPAs<br />
• Quality of cash flows have improved<br />
• New utility acquisitions in 2013<br />
15
Debt Financing Platforms Established<br />
• Financing platforms appropriate for each subsidiary are established<br />
• Straight forward execution and scalable<br />
• <strong>Corp</strong>orate level investment grade financings<br />
• Canadian Bond Indenture:<br />
• US Bond Indenture:<br />
• senior unsecured<br />
• included in Canadian bond<br />
index<br />
• incurrence based covenants<br />
• senior unsecured<br />
• permits US private placements and<br />
public bonds<br />
• now well established in US private<br />
placement market<br />
16
Capital Structure<br />
December<br />
2011<br />
June<br />
2012<br />
Post Q2<br />
Financings<br />
Long term liabilities $ 332,716 33.0% $ 399,406 35.0% $ 639,406 44.9%<br />
Convertible debentures 122,297 12.1% 62,390 5.5% 62,390 4.4%<br />
Total equity 552,695 54.8% 678,172 59.5% 723,172 50.8%<br />
$ 1,007,708 100.0% $ 1,139,968 100.0% $ 1,424,968 100.0%<br />
• AQN maintains an investment grade capital structure<br />
• Consolidated target 50% debt : 50% equity<br />
• AQN intends to convert final Series 3 CDs to equity in Q1 2013<br />
• Conversion further improves financial flexibility<br />
17
Debt Maturity Ladder<br />
• No near term debt maturities<br />
• Paced maturity ladder enhances liquidity<br />
‘000s<br />
$200,000<br />
$150,000<br />
$100,000 000<br />
$50,000<br />
$‐<br />
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023+<br />
Debt Maturities<br />
Convertible Debenture Maturity<br />
18<br />
18
Access to Equity<br />
• AQN access to equity remains strong<br />
• Large demand for predictable yield stock with a proven growth record<br />
• Multiple l tools available:<br />
Operating Cash<br />
Flow<br />
Conversion of CDs<br />
DRIP<br />
Emera Investment<br />
Preferred Shares<br />
Common Stock<br />
19
Tax Position<br />
<strong>Algonquin</strong> <strong>Power</strong> & <strong>Utilities</strong> <strong>Corp</strong>.<br />
Non-capital losses $145.0<br />
<strong>Algonquin</strong><br />
<strong>Power</strong> Co.<br />
Liberty<br />
<strong>Utilities</strong><br />
• APUC regularly assesses its<br />
consolidated d corporate tax<br />
position<br />
• $691 of tax attributes are<br />
available<br />
• APUC now expects to begin<br />
paying cash taxes in 2022<br />
Non-capital losses $ 67.0 $ 45.0<br />
• APCo – 2020<br />
PP&E tax shelter 281.0 153.0<br />
$ 348.0 $ 198.0<br />
• Liberty <strong>Utilities</strong> – 2017<br />
• <strong>Power</strong> development projects<br />
over the next 5 years will add<br />
additional shelter<br />
20<br />
20
The Year Ahead<br />
• Closing on committed acquisitions:<br />
Deal<br />
Debt<br />
Equity<br />
Size<br />
US Wind farms $240 $120 $120<br />
Ak Arkansas Water $27 $15 $12<br />
Georgia Gas $140 $77 $63<br />
$407 $212 $195<br />
21
The Year Ahead<br />
• AQN has proven access to debt capital markets:<br />
Debt Source<br />
Liberty US private placement $ 92<br />
APCo Bond $120<br />
$212<br />
22
The Year Ahead<br />
• AQN has significant and diverse equity availability:<br />
Equity Sources<br />
Conversion of CDs to equity $ 80<br />
DRIP $ 10<br />
Committed Emera sub receipts $ 45<br />
Additional Emera Equity available $ 60<br />
Plus operating cash flows<br />
$195<br />
23
Questions
Mike Snow,<br />
President
<strong>Algonquin</strong> <strong>Power</strong> Today<br />
Rene ewable<br />
• 76% of 2011 EBITDA<br />
• >95% of generation in PPAs<br />
• Remaining PPA life of 15.5 years<br />
nt Th hermal<br />
De evelopme<br />
• 24% of 2011 EBITDA<br />
• >95% of generation in PPAs<br />
• Remaining PPA life of 7.0 years<br />
• Greenfield, acquisitions, organic growth<br />
• Origination results: 541MW over 2012 – 2016<br />
• Development pipeline across 5 provinces<br />
26<br />
Note: The figures used in this presentation assume the divestment of<br />
AQN’s New York and New England micro-hydro facilities.
2012 <strong>Algonquin</strong> <strong>Power</strong> Successes<br />
25 Year PPA with<br />
Sask<strong>Power</strong> for<br />
177MW Wind Farm<br />
Sanger transformer<br />
upgrade and generator<br />
replacement<br />
Achieved 365<br />
days without a<br />
lost time injury<br />
Closing of interest in<br />
200MW Minonk, IL<br />
and 150MW Senate,<br />
TX wind farms<br />
Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012<br />
$1.2B Pipeline to Drive Growth<br />
Adding 541MW of Generating Capacity by 2016<br />
76<br />
EBITDA Growth<br />
($MM)<br />
192<br />
• Build $1.2B of contracted pipeline<br />
• 16% annual growth in generation capacity<br />
• Optimize facilities with a focused capital program<br />
• Continue asset rationalization<br />
Project<br />
MW (net)<br />
CAPEX<br />
(net $MM) COD PPA (yrs)<br />
2011 2016<br />
Minonk 118 227 2012 10<br />
Senate 88 163 2012 15<br />
Cornwall Solar 10 45 2013 20<br />
St. Damase 24 65 2014 20<br />
Morse Wind 25 65 2014 20<br />
Amherst Island 75 230 2014 20<br />
Val Eo 24 70 2015 20<br />
Chaplin Wind 177 355 2016 25<br />
TOTAL 541 1,220<br />
Combined annual EBITDA of $124 Million<br />
28
Changing Complexion of Portfolio<br />
Significant Growth in Generation Across Fewer Sites<br />
Number of<br />
Facilities 2012<br />
Number of<br />
Facilities 2016<br />
6<br />
11<br />
0 - 5MW<br />
5 - 10MW<br />
17<br />
14<br />
37 10MW+<br />
7<br />
Average PPA Length (yrs)<br />
Total Facilities 54 38<br />
Av. Facility Size (net) 9.5MW 26.4MW<br />
2016<br />
16.8<br />
Total MW (net) 510 1,000<br />
2012<br />
12.4<br />
0 5 10 15 20<br />
29
Portfolio Management<br />
Wind, Solar Remain Attractive in the Long Term<br />
Objectives:<br />
• Deliver reliable EBITDA with minimal volatility<br />
• Demonstrate sustainability in the business model<br />
• Acquire sufficient assets by fuel type to operate safely and competitively<br />
US Generation Capacity Additions<br />
Portfolio Considerations<br />
Wind<br />
PV<br />
Solar<br />
Natural<br />
Gas<br />
Hydro<br />
• Diversify revenue geographically<br />
• Annual resource variability similar to hydro<br />
• Expand existing sites with proven resource<br />
• Least complex; attractive margins<br />
• Costs declining; efficiencies improving<br />
• Availability of low cost gas<br />
• Focus: non-merchant generation<br />
• Pursuing accretive acquisitions in a<br />
competitive environment<br />
30
Capital Project Management<br />
Reduce Risk Over Project Life Cycle<br />
Title<br />
Stage<br />
Gate<br />
Activity<br />
Needed<br />
Funds<br />
Engineering<br />
Completion<br />
Contingency<br />
Required<br />
Porch<br />
Gat te 0 – Th he Front<br />
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4<br />
Project Options Project<br />
Screening Selection Refinement<br />
Conceptual<br />
Study<br />
Ga ate 1<br />
Feasibility<br />
Study<br />
Ga ate 2<br />
Engineering<br />
Study<br />
Up to 0.1% Up to 0.5% Up to 1.5%<br />
Ga ate 3<br />
Execution<br />
Detailed Eng.<br />
& Construction<br />
100% of<br />
Engineering Value<br />
0-5% 5-20% 30-40% 50-100%<br />
30-50% 15-20% 10-15%<br />
• Risk managed process from business plan to start-up (Stage 1 – Stage 4)<br />
• Approval stage gates across the project life cycle (Gate 0 – Gate 3)<br />
• Owner reviews deliverables at each gate; management can modify / stop project<br />
• Project funding is tightly managed<br />
31
Operations Strategy<br />
Focus on Standardization<br />
Operations Organized for Seamless Growth Integration<br />
Divisional i i Organization<br />
• Wind / Hydro / Thermal<br />
Integrated Safety<br />
Common Tools<br />
Standardization<br />
• Embed Safety into Operations<br />
• Dashboards / CMMS / Document Control<br />
• Plug ‘n Play Growth / Maintenance Strategy<br />
2011 EBITDA ($MM) 2011 Capacity (net MW)<br />
18.6<br />
23.0<br />
Wind<br />
Hydro<br />
182.5<br />
140.3<br />
34.5<br />
Thermal<br />
113.7<br />
32
Mike Griffin,<br />
Senior Director, Asset Management
Portfolio Planning<br />
• Managing growth<br />
• Adding appropriate resources for new assets<br />
• Divesting smaller assets<br />
• Plan for rationalization of micro-hydro assets<br />
• Off contract micro-hydro no longer strategic in AQN’s growing portfolio<br />
• High operating cost vs. larger hydro<br />
• Typically y higher volatility vs. larger hydro<br />
• High volatility due to market pricing<br />
• Six plants sold over last 12 months<br />
• Considering further divestments<br />
34
2012 CAPEX Plan and Progress<br />
Project<br />
• Sanger - Transformer upgraded, new STG installed<br />
• PPA amended to manage carbon risk through 2013<br />
• Preparing capital plan to support PPA negotiations with<br />
PG&E for 16 MW additional capacity<br />
• Windsor Locks - Repowering complete in Q3 2012<br />
• ESA extended through 2027 with Ahlstrom<br />
• Frame 6 & STG successfully bid into ISONE Reserve Market<br />
Expected<br />
Impact<br />
EBITDA increase:<br />
- $500k (2013)<br />
- $500k (2014)<br />
EBITDA:<br />
- $2.5 – $3MM<br />
• Tinker<br />
• G5 repowering underway expected completion Fall 2012<br />
• Increase output & reduce operating costs<br />
−<br />
−<br />
24 GWh/year<br />
of increased<br />
generation<br />
EBITDA<br />
increase:<br />
$750k/year<br />
35
CAPEX Forecast (2013-2017)<br />
• Expected CAPEX for organic growth projects of ~$1MM/year<br />
• Case-by-case examination based on increased EBITDA analysis<br />
• For example: Considering chiller upgrade at Sanger in 2013<br />
• Quebec Dam Act<br />
• All required studies have been completed<br />
• Remedial work required on 8 facilities<br />
• Completed at 2 facilities, work on remaining 6 completed by 2015<br />
CAPEX Spending by Division ($MM)<br />
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017<br />
Renewable 9.3 10.5 6.2 2.6 2.3<br />
Thermal 4.5 3.7 3.9 1.2 3.3<br />
Total 13.7 14.2 10.1 3.8 5.6<br />
36
Achieving Price Certainty<br />
• Average PPA length increases from 2012 to 2016<br />
• For Quebec hydro facilities, AQN has negotiated two contract renewals<br />
with Hydro Quebec<br />
• All contracts contemplate renewal terms<br />
• Long-lived hedges<br />
• Dickson Dam: ~ 75% of output<br />
• US wind: Majority of output<br />
Average PPA Life<br />
(years remaining)<br />
2012 2016<br />
Wind 20.22 19.3<br />
Solar - 18.0<br />
Hydro 10.8 10.3<br />
Thermal 7.0 8.1<br />
Total 12.4 16.8<br />
37
REC Sales Strategies<br />
• REC Sales<br />
• Register/Qualify in multiple<br />
programs<br />
• Forward sales of generation<br />
• RPS requirements will<br />
increase significantly<br />
• Market for longer term sales<br />
not well developed<br />
Expected<br />
REC Volume<br />
(1,000/yr)*<br />
$/REC<br />
2013<br />
$/REC<br />
2017<br />
Sandy Ridge (PA) 95 $1.19 $15.20<br />
Minonk (IL) 400 $2.14 $15.20<br />
Senate (TX) 305 $2.10 $3.39<br />
Windsor Locks(CT) 75 $11.00 $11.91<br />
Totals 875 $2.4MM $9.4MM<br />
*APCo’s Share<br />
RPS Requirements<br />
EY2013 EY2014 EY2015 EY2016 EY2017<br />
PA 4% 4.5% 5% 5.5% 6%<br />
IL 7% 8% 9% 10% 11.5%<br />
CT 11% 12.5% 14% 15.5% 17%<br />
TX 5,880 MW by 2014 10,000 MW by 2025<br />
38
Energy From Waste Update<br />
• EFW is ready to continue operations beyond Nov 1st<br />
• Waste supply outlook<br />
1) Municipal sector<br />
• Limited landfill capacity<br />
• Alternatives ti to landfill significant ifi technology and price risk<br />
2) Industrial/Commercial sector<br />
• Significant market for product destruction, bulky items<br />
• Geographic advantage vs. alternatives<br />
• Equipment/Operational modifications will increase plant flexibility<br />
• EBITDA Forecasts for combined EFW/BCI<br />
• 2013: ~$2-3MM/yr<br />
• 2014/15: ~$5-6MM/yr<br />
39
Jeff Norman,<br />
Vice President, Project Development
Levelized Cost of Energy<br />
Levelized cost of electricity for different generation<br />
technologies, Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2011 ($ per MWh)<br />
41<br />
41
Growth Strategy Focus<br />
Project Type<br />
Interest to<br />
Develop<br />
Solar High High<br />
Interest to<br />
Acquire<br />
Wind High Medium<br />
Hydroelectric High Medium<br />
Natural Gas (150 MW) Low Very Low<br />
Biomass Very Low Very Low<br />
Geothermal Very Low Very Low<br />
• Modality – primary development focus on solar and wind<br />
• Minimum Size – gain economies of scale: solar / hydro 10MW; wind 25 MW<br />
• Geography – focus development in Canada and the United States<br />
42<br />
42
Non-Regulated Electric Generation Pipeline<br />
2013 10 MW SOLAR FACILITY IN ONTARIO ($45 M)<br />
• 20 year PPA at Cornwall<br />
200 MW WIND FACILITY IN ILLINOIS ($400 M)*<br />
• Long term power sales agreements ~10 year average length<br />
150 MW WIND FACILITY IN TEXAS ($300 M)*<br />
• Long term power sales agreements ~15 year average length<br />
2014 75 MW WIND FACILITY IN ONTARIO ($230 M)<br />
• 20 year PPA at Amherst Island<br />
24 MW WIND FACILITY IN QUEBEC ($70 M)<br />
• 20 year PPA in partnership with Town of St. Damase<br />
25 MW WIND FACILITY IN SASKATCHEWAN ($70 M)<br />
• 20 year PPA at Morse<br />
2015 24 MW WIND FACILITY IN QUEBEC ($70 M)<br />
• 20 year PPA in partnership with community cooperative<br />
IN EXCESS OF $1<br />
BILLION IN NEW<br />
INVESTMENT<br />
OVER 5 YEARS<br />
9.9 MW WIND FACILITY IN NEW BRUNSWICK ($25 M)<br />
• 20 year PPA in New Brunswick<br />
2016 177 MW WIND FACILITY IN SASKATCHEWAN ($355 M)<br />
• 25 year PPA at Chaplin<br />
43<br />
* APCO Interest 58.75% of Sponsor Co.
Growth Considerations – 2012 Pipeline<br />
Contracted Wind<br />
Un-contracted Wind<br />
Un-contracted Hydro<br />
Un-contracted Solar<br />
Contracted Solar<br />
44
US Electricity Demand: 1990 - 2035<br />
Electricity Generation by fuel, 1990-2035<br />
(trillion kW-h per year)<br />
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration |<br />
Annual Energy Outlook 2012<br />
45<br />
45
Recent Turbine Prices<br />
Source: Bolinger, M., & Wiser, R. (2011). Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine<br />
Prices Over The Past Decade. U.S: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.<br />
46
Turbine Technology Unlocks Opportunities<br />
CLASS I-II<br />
113m Rotor Diameter<br />
CLASS II-III<br />
93m Rotor Diameter<br />
Gearbox & Double-<br />
Fed Induction<br />
Generator<br />
Direct-drive (no gear<br />
box), permanent<br />
magnet, full conversion<br />
80 metre<br />
Hub Height<br />
99.5 metre<br />
80m<br />
Hub Hub Height Height<br />
47
PV Module Price Trend<br />
48
Growth of Non-Regulated Business<br />
Executing on power developments<br />
Projects<br />
Amherst<br />
Cornwall Morse Chaplin St-<br />
Val-<br />
Senate Minonk Sandy<br />
NB<br />
St.<br />
Island<br />
Damase Eo<br />
Ridge<br />
Leon<br />
II<br />
Off-Take<br />
Agreement<br />
Interconnection<br />
Capacity<br />
Permitting /<br />
Environmental<br />
Impact<br />
Assessment<br />
YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES<br />
YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES<br />
75 % 95% 97% 40% 85% 25% 100% 100% 100% 100 % 100%<br />
Engineering 25% 25% 0% 0% 20% 1% 100% 100% 100% 10% 100%<br />
Construction 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 95% 100% 0% 100%<br />
Stage Gate 3 3 2 2 3 2-3 4 4 4 2 4<br />
49
Charlie Ashman,<br />
Vice President, Technology
Technology Developments and Cost Trends<br />
• Innovative Technologies<br />
• Impact to existing business<br />
• Opportunities for future development<br />
• Natural Gas<br />
• Supply<br />
• Generation<br />
• CHP<br />
• FERC<br />
• Renewables<br />
• Materials<br />
• Solar<br />
• Wind
Shale Gas Natural Gas Supply<br />
52
Natural Gas Generation Technologies<br />
GE LMS100<br />
• High simple cycle, base<br />
load efficiency (44%)<br />
• Fast start capability<br />
delivers 100 MW in 10<br />
min<br />
Wartsila Duel Fuel<br />
• Stepwise investment, smaller risks<br />
• Excellent plant availability<br />
• Net plant electrical efficiency over 44%<br />
• Full output at high altitude/hot - dry<br />
conditions<br />
• High part-load efficiency<br />
• Fast start-up, 5 min hot standby to full plant<br />
load<br />
F t t t bilit • Minimal water consumption<br />
• Low gas fuel pressure<br />
• Excellent cycling, part<br />
load and hot day<br />
performance<br />
53
Recent U.S. Governmental Action<br />
• Presidential Order CHP August 30, 2012<br />
• Coordinate policies: encourage investment in industrial efficiency<br />
• National goal of deploying 40 GW of new CHP by 2020<br />
• Electricity/Natural Gas Coordination<br />
• Adequacy of gas infrastructure coordination between industries:<br />
• February 2011 gas outages in Southwest lead to blackouts<br />
• Adequacy of gas supply for generation New England winter peak<br />
• Midwest ISO projects $billions of new gas infrastructure needed quickly to<br />
address projected coal-fired generator retirements<br />
• Disconnect between intermittent itt t peak demand d of electric generators<br />
and full subscribed pipelines<br />
• FERC sought industry input and seeks full rule making<br />
• DOE to establish Strategic Materials Hub
Rare Earth Materials for Renewable Technology<br />
• High temperature superconductor<br />
(HTS)<br />
• 10 year horizon<br />
• Significant size and weight reduction<br />
• Demonstration on electric motors for<br />
ship propulsion<br />
• Rare Earth Minerals<br />
• Permanent Magnets (Nd Dy)<br />
• Reduced weight and size<br />
• Direct Drive<br />
• Virtually every technology needs<br />
REM<br />
• Morlycorp reopens Mountain<br />
Pass-Technology innovations<br />
reduce cost w/environmentally<br />
sound mining<br />
• Increased Canadian exploration<br />
• DOE creates Strategic Materials<br />
Hub
PV Highlights 2012<br />
• Module is 50% of PV installed cost<br />
• Module cost reduced to
Innovative Solar Technologies
Wind Industry 2012<br />
Trends<br />
Events<br />
• Wind is credible source of new<br />
generation in U.S.<br />
•<br />
•<br />
GE 10 years in wind industry<br />
Dependency of rare earth materials<br />
• Lack of governmental policy clarity (REM) for magnets<br />
• Turbine manufacturers/supplier<br />
• 2011 nearly all REM supplied by<br />
continue to localize production<br />
unreliable foreign source<br />
• Falling turbine prices push<br />
• Industry experiences price escalation<br />
and limited supplies<br />
installed cost lower<br />
• Molycorp re-opens Mountain Pass,<br />
• With improved capacity factors<br />
CA/other sources<br />
aggressive wind power pricing<br />
i<br />
• US DOE investment in Strategic<br />
• Strong growth 2012 but<br />
Materials Hub<br />
dramatically lower and uncertain • Permanent Magnetic Direct-Drive<br />
2013 (PMDD) eliminates gearbox<br />
• Significant turbine production over<br />
capacity<br />
• PTC set to expire December 31, 2012<br />
58
Wind Turbine Drive Train Evolution<br />
Induction Generator<br />
Permanent Magnet Direct Dive<br />
59
Questions
David Pasieka,<br />
President
A Year of Achievements<br />
Liberty <strong>Utilities</strong><br />
$100M Credit Facility<br />
Regulatory Approval<br />
of 100% Calpeco<br />
ownership<br />
Closing of<br />
Mid-States<br />
Gas assets<br />
acquisitions<br />
Pending<br />
Approval of<br />
Calpeco rate<br />
case by CPUC<br />
January April July October<br />
Closing of Granite State<br />
Electric and EnergyNorth<br />
Gas acquisitions<br />
Liberty <strong>Utilities</strong><br />
$225M debt facility<br />
Announcement<br />
of Georgia gas<br />
assets<br />
acquisition<br />
Announcement<br />
of Arkansas<br />
water assets<br />
acquisition<br />
62
Flawless Execution<br />
• Disciplined approach to<br />
transitioning our<br />
acquisitions<br />
• Planning starts during the<br />
initial negotiation process<br />
• Day 1 in Mid-States and<br />
New Hampshire without<br />
Customer, Employee or<br />
Regulator incident<br />
63
Expanding our Geographic Footprint<br />
Pine Bluff, Arkansas<br />
• Water distribution tuck in<br />
• Purchase price $28.6M<br />
• Acquisition Premium 1.16x<br />
• 17,280 customers<br />
• 41 Employees<br />
Columbus, Georgia<br />
• Natural gas distribution<br />
• Purchase Price $140.7M<br />
• Acquisition Premium 1.1x1x<br />
• 64,000 customers<br />
• 64 Employees<br />
64
Liberty <strong>Utilities</strong> - Systems<br />
NEW HAMPSHIRE<br />
IOWA<br />
CALIFORNIA<br />
MISSOURI<br />
ILLINOIS<br />
ARIZONA<br />
Arkansas<br />
Georgia<br />
TEXAS<br />
Liberty <strong>Utilities</strong> (West)<br />
Water & Electric<br />
Rate Base: $238 M<br />
Customers: 110,000000<br />
Liberty <strong>Utilities</strong> t (Central)<br />
Gas & Water<br />
Rate Base: $137 M<br />
Customers: 113,000<br />
Liberty <strong>Utilities</strong> (East)<br />
Electric & Gas<br />
Rate Base: $336M<br />
Customers: 187,000<br />
65
Issues Affecting our <strong>Utilities</strong><br />
• Safe, reliable service provided<br />
using reasonable cost<br />
structures<br />
• Customer service expectations<br />
• Increased demands d for<br />
stakeholder communications<br />
66
Organizational Approach<br />
Head Office: Oakville<br />
Strategy, Standards, Consistency<br />
State Presidents<br />
Operations<br />
Customer<br />
Service<br />
Regulatory<br />
& Gov’t<br />
Finance &<br />
Admin<br />
Environment,<br />
Health &<br />
Safety<br />
Human<br />
Resources<br />
67
Success Model<br />
• Local<br />
• Responsive<br />
• Caring<br />
• Employee Engagement<br />
• Better Regulatory Access<br />
• Comparable cost structure<br />
• Improved Customer Experience<br />
• Repeatable Scalable Growth<br />
68
On Being Local<br />
• Customer service best<br />
delivered by opening the<br />
doors to our customers<br />
• Leverage experience of the<br />
existing management team<br />
• Repatriate jobs into the state<br />
• Build strong community<br />
presence home / schools<br />
• Poised to capture local growth<br />
opportunities<br />
69
On Being Responsive<br />
• Focus on maintaining reliable<br />
service<br />
• Build standardized platform<br />
• Empower employees to do the<br />
right thing<br />
• Enhance our stakeholder<br />
communications<br />
70
Caring<br />
• Safety is paramount<br />
• Support of the low income<br />
programs<br />
• Care for the environment<br />
• Annual survey validates our<br />
focus on our customers<br />
71
We are Poised for Success<br />
• Proven scalable local model<br />
• Prudent in our cost<br />
management including<br />
commodity procurement<br />
• Well positioned to capitalize on<br />
both organic and acquisitive<br />
growth prospects<br />
• High touch regulatory focus is<br />
demonstrating benefit<br />
72
Peter Eichler,<br />
Director, Regulatory Strategy
Regulatory Overview<br />
New Hampshire/3<br />
Iowa/3<br />
Illinois/2<br />
California/1<br />
Missouri/2<br />
Arkansas/3<br />
Director of Regulatory<br />
& Government Affairs,<br />
New Hampshire<br />
Arizona/3<br />
Texas/1<br />
Georgia/1<br />
Georgia/1<br />
RRA Ranking<br />
Manager Regulatory &<br />
Government Affairs,<br />
California<br />
Below average<br />
Aerage Average<br />
Above average<br />
Manager Regulatory &<br />
Government Affairs,<br />
Arizona, Texas<br />
Director of Regulatory<br />
& Government Affairs,<br />
Mid-States<br />
74
Utility ROE Trends<br />
• Average authorized returns remain reasonable<br />
• Approximately 9-11% for both gas, electric, and water utilities<br />
• Trend toward increased earnings certainty<br />
• Through regulatory mechanisms<br />
12 US Average Utilty ROEs vs 10 Year US Treasury<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012<br />
US Utility ROE<br />
10 Year Treasury Rates<br />
75
Increased Earnings Certainty<br />
Mechanism AZ CA MO NH AR GA<br />
Commodity<br />
Pass Through<br />
Accelerated<br />
Recovery<br />
Decoupling<br />
Memorandum<br />
Accounts<br />
76
Decoupling Flavours<br />
• Straight Fixed Variable<br />
• Places all non-fuel costs and returns in<br />
monthly fixed charges<br />
• Popular in Missouri; Liberty assets<br />
currently at 75% of costs in fixed charges<br />
• Weather Normalization<br />
• Adjustments to historical weather<br />
patterns on real time basis<br />
• Liberty will adopt this method in Georgia<br />
• Economic Normalization<br />
• Annual adjustments to ensure earnings<br />
can be met<br />
• Liberty has mechanisms that adjust<br />
annually in California and Georgia 77
Case Study: CalPeco 2013 Rate Case<br />
CalPeco rate case<br />
• Filed February 28 th , 2012<br />
• Extensive interaction with CPUC staff<br />
before and during filing<br />
• Filing based on prospective test year<br />
• Non-Revenue requests<br />
• Decoupling<br />
• Continuation of inflation and major plant<br />
addition adjustment mechanism<br />
• Likely January 1, 2013 implementation<br />
78
CalPeco 2013 Rate Case<br />
• Major Drivers<br />
• Plant Investment: $41 million<br />
• Vegetation Management: $3.3 million<br />
• All party settlement t achieved that t will result<br />
in achievement of $19.0 million EBITDA<br />
• Base revenue decoupling mechanism<br />
• New rates will be implemented Jan 1, 2013<br />
• Subject to final approval by CPUC<br />
79
Regulatory Strategy<br />
• Starts with proactive outreach<br />
• Minimum 4 times annually per jurisdiction<br />
• Keeps regulatory agencies aware of issues<br />
and successes<br />
• Use feedback to implement mutually<br />
beneficial programs<br />
• Customer focused programs<br />
• Regulatory programs<br />
• Locally focused<br />
• No surprises during rate cases<br />
80
Upcoming Rate Cases<br />
• Liberty <strong>Utilities</strong> will file a case for<br />
West<br />
Filing Date<br />
each major system at least once<br />
every 4 years<br />
Rio Rico Q2 2012<br />
LPSCo Q1 2013<br />
• Rate cases will focus on<br />
continually increasing earnings<br />
certainty<br />
East Filing Date<br />
Granite State Q1 2013<br />
EnergyNorth Q1 2014<br />
Central<br />
Filing Date<br />
Missouri Gas Q1 2014<br />
Woodmark Q1 2013<br />
81
In Summary<br />
• Continued increased trend towards<br />
earnings certainty<br />
• Future rate cases to focus on<br />
incremental improvement<br />
• Regulatory Strategy key to successful<br />
rate case outcomes<br />
82
Chico DaFonte,<br />
Director, Energy Procurement
Commodity Procurement Team<br />
• Average of 20 years experience in electric and<br />
natural gas industries<br />
• Commodity supply chain – production/generation,<br />
retail/wholesale sales, purchasing<br />
• Multi-state and federal regulatory experience<br />
84
Business Support<br />
Sales &<br />
Marketing<br />
Customer<br />
Relations<br />
Finance &<br />
Accounting<br />
Government<br />
Relations<br />
Commodity<br />
Procurement<br />
Operations<br />
Rates &<br />
Regulatory<br />
Treasury<br />
Legal<br />
85
Core Obligation<br />
Sales &<br />
Marketing<br />
Customer<br />
Relations<br />
Finance &<br />
Accounting<br />
Government<br />
Relations<br />
To provide safe &<br />
reliable service to all<br />
customers at the<br />
least possible cost<br />
consistent with all<br />
state and federal<br />
regulations, ensuring<br />
full recovery of<br />
commodity costs.<br />
Operations<br />
Rates &<br />
Regulatory<br />
Treasury<br />
Legal<br />
86
Commodity Cost Recovery<br />
• Pass-through cost recovery<br />
• Purchased gas costs<br />
• Electric utility default service – NH<br />
• Electric utility sales service – CA<br />
• Water<br />
• EnergyNorth Natural Gas<br />
• Integrated resource plan filed every 2 years –<br />
capacity cost approval<br />
• Annual hedging plan – Commission approved design<br />
• Semi-annual cost of gas filing – commodity, capacity<br />
and hedging cost pass-through<br />
87
Daily Planning<br />
Forecast<br />
24/7<br />
Market Intelligence<br />
Planning<br />
7:00 AM<br />
Optimization<br />
8:00 AM<br />
3:00 PM<br />
9:00 PM<br />
8:15 AM – 11:00 AM<br />
Procurement<br />
Scheduling<br />
24/7<br />
8:15 AM – 11:00 AM<br />
9:00 AM – 11:30 AM<br />
88
Natural Gas Delivery System<br />
Procurement - Centralized<br />
89
Natural Gas Portfolio<br />
• 17 Interstate Pipelines<br />
• 10 Underground Storage Facilities<br />
• 3 LNG Facilities<br />
• 5 Propane Facilities<br />
• Over 30 Firm Transportation Contracts<br />
90
Natural Gas: The Fuel of Choice<br />
91
Changing Supply Basins<br />
Alaska<br />
Mackenzie<br />
Delta<br />
Western Canada<br />
Oil Sands<br />
Eastern Canada<br />
Rocky<br />
Mountain<br />
Woodford<br />
Shale<br />
Marcellus<br />
Shale<br />
Conventional<br />
Midcontinent/<br />
Texas<br />
Barnett<br />
Shale<br />
Haynesville<br />
Shale<br />
Unconventional<br />
Gulf Coast<br />
92
Pipeline Infrastructure Expansion…<br />
• Northeast Pipeline Projects<br />
• $4.6 billion – completed or under<br />
construction<br />
• $5.5 billion – under review or announced<br />
• 16.3 Bcf per day of capacity<br />
• Pi Primarily il producer di driven<br />
93<br />
* CAPEX estimates were not available for certain of the Announced projects; t<strong>here</strong>fore, the CAPEX estimate reflects the data that is available.<br />
Source: Sussex Economics Advisors , LLC
…Leads to Liberty Growth Opportunity<br />
• Organic Growth<br />
• Residential oil/propane conversions<br />
• Commercial and industrial applications<br />
• New power plants and power plant<br />
conversions<br />
• Compressed natural gas vehicles<br />
94
In Summary<br />
• Team – Experience<br />
• Process – Risk Avoidance<br />
• Natural Gas – Infrastructure and Opportunity<br />
The Future is Bright<br />
95
Gerald Tremblay,<br />
Vice President, Finance
Growing the Business<br />
• Organic Growth<br />
• Leveraging opportunities within existing<br />
assets<br />
• Business Development Growth<br />
• Leveraging opportunities via acquisitions<br />
97
Capital Management<br />
Objective<br />
• Prudently maintain and invest<br />
capital within all our utilities<br />
Strategies<br />
Process Flow<br />
Identification<br />
Efficiency<br />
• Effective and efficient<br />
i deployment of capital<br />
• Consistency in evaluating<br />
capital projects<br />
• Establish accountability<br />
Evaluation<br />
Approval<br />
Implementation<br />
98
Capital Categories<br />
Category<br />
Growth<br />
Program<br />
Mains, services, meters,<br />
system reinforcements<br />
Mandated/Safety<br />
Integrity/Reliability<br />
Corrosion control, meter<br />
change outs, street lights,<br />
new customers<br />
Main replacements,<br />
substation capacity,<br />
pipeline reinforcements<br />
99
Five Year Capital Plan by Region<br />
$ ‘000s<br />
• Average yearly spend of<br />
approximately $69M<br />
• Translates into annual Net<br />
PPE growth of<br />
approximately 3-5%<br />
80,000<br />
70,000<br />
60,000<br />
50,000<br />
40,000<br />
30,000<br />
East<br />
Central<br />
West<br />
20,000<br />
10,000000<br />
-<br />
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017<br />
100
Selected Major Projects<br />
State Project Highlights Dollars Spend<br />
California • Transmission major line re build $50M -7 years<br />
New<br />
Hampshire<br />
• Non discretionary pipe replacement $32.8M-5 years<br />
• Cast iron/bare steel replacement $26.7M-5 years<br />
• New services growth strategy<br />
$18.1M-5 years<br />
• Transformer installation $10.2M-5 Years<br />
Arizona • Palm Valley expansion $5.0M-1 Year<br />
101
Other Organic Growth Opportunities - Gas<br />
• Low commodity prices along EnergyNorth Penetration<br />
with additional gas supply<br />
• Programs in place<br />
• Increase in conversion<br />
Natural<br />
Gas<br />
opportunities<br />
• Increase load volume of<br />
customers<br />
39%<br />
Other<br />
Heating<br />
61%<br />
Approximately 16,000 heating<br />
structures currently on other<br />
heating within 100ft of our mains<br />
102
Acquisition Criteria<br />
• Modest premium to regulatory<br />
book value<br />
• Supportiveness of regulatory<br />
jurisdiction<br />
• Organic growth potential<br />
• Service territory demographics<br />
103
Consistent with our Growth Strategy<br />
• 2012 growth expectations - announce<br />
$150M of rate base assets<br />
• Recent announcements<br />
• Georgia (Gas)<br />
• Arkansas (Water)<br />
• “Saving the Orphans”<br />
• Pipeline<br />
• Water<br />
• Gas<br />
• Electric<br />
104
Consistent with our Growth Strategy<br />
• Continue to build both organic<br />
and acquisition growth<br />
• Over $1.1B in net PP&E by<br />
end of 2013 including<br />
Arkansas and Georgia<br />
• Growing pipeline<br />
$ millions<br />
1,200<br />
1,000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
Net PP&E Organic and Acquisition<br />
Growth<br />
1,108<br />
801<br />
400<br />
200<br />
189<br />
350<br />
0<br />
2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
105
2011 Towards the Million Customers<br />
Organic Growth<br />
Current Activity Growth<br />
106
2012 Towards the Million Customers<br />
Organic Growth<br />
Current Activity Growth<br />
107
2013 Towards the Million Customers<br />
Organic Growth<br />
Areas of Focus<br />
108
In Summary<br />
• Continue to grow our business<br />
organically – approximately<br />
3-5% in annual net PP&E<br />
growth<br />
• Continue to strengthen<br />
pipeline acquisition growth –<br />
over $1.1B in net PP&E by end<br />
of 2013<br />
109
Questions
Thank-you