VLSIresearch - Semiconductor Wafer Test Workshop
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VLSIresearch - Semiconductor Wafer Test Workshop
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<strong>Test</strong> Economics Driving<br />
SWTW -- June 2009<br />
<strong>Test</strong> Technology<br />
A storm blowing into Lake McDonald. Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park World Heritage Site, Montana<br />
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1
Market Observations<br />
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Copyright © 2009 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission from VLSI RESEARCH INC.<br />
2
Half of The Chip Recession Was Caused by<br />
Overspending in Taiwan Memory<br />
Capital Expenditure Ratio by Market Type<br />
140%<br />
120%<br />
100%<br />
Nan, Inot, PrM, PChp<br />
Mic, Span, Elp, Tosh, Hy, Sam<br />
AMD, IBM, Intel<br />
Chart, TSMC, UMC<br />
NSC, TI, & Mats<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
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3
Deep-Freeze Has Subsided<br />
Temperature in Degrees F<br />
120<br />
110<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
-10<br />
-20<br />
Jan-05<br />
Feb-05<br />
Apr-05<br />
May-05<br />
VLSI's GLOBAL CHIP MAKING CLIMATE TREND INDEX<br />
(Average of Regional Order Activity Patterns in Chip Equipment)<br />
Grow th Decline Line<br />
Negative Concerns:<br />
- Global economy in recession,<br />
could be entering a depression.<br />
- Confidence Lost, Caution prevails<br />
- Unemployment soaring<br />
- Consumer debt payoffs<br />
- Excess capacity in memory &<br />
foundry<br />
- No access to funds<br />
Jul-05<br />
Sep-05<br />
Oct-05<br />
Dec-05<br />
Jan-06<br />
Positive Drivers:<br />
+ G20 govts w orking in concert<br />
+ U.S. money supply rising<br />
+ Gas prices declining<br />
+ Declining IC inventories<br />
+ 32/28nm Ramp<br />
+Consumer confidence rising<br />
+Memory capacity is burning<br />
+<strong>Test</strong>&Assy capacity tightening<br />
+CPPI is hot<br />
Mar-06<br />
May-06<br />
Jun-06<br />
Aug-06<br />
Oct-06<br />
Nov-06<br />
Jan-07<br />
Feb-07<br />
Apr-07<br />
Jun-07<br />
Jul-07<br />
Week<br />
08/07:<br />
Financial<br />
markets<br />
tumble.<br />
Order activity inched higher, hitting 58 degrees on the<br />
back of improving industry fundamentals. Equipment<br />
suppliers are becoming more optimistic about their<br />
outlook. Chip prices and utilization rates are increasing.<br />
Demand is also picking up, prompting several memory<br />
suppliers to increase production. They believe that<br />
demand is now strong enough to soak up the increases in<br />
supply. This will eventually translate into capacity buys.<br />
Check below for the Customer Weather.<br />
Sep-07<br />
Oct-07<br />
Dec-07<br />
Feb-08<br />
Mar-08<br />
May-08<br />
Jun-08<br />
Aug-08<br />
Oct-08<br />
Nov-08<br />
RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only w ithin your company. Copyright © 2009 by VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved.<br />
09/08:<br />
Financial<br />
markets<br />
crashed<br />
forcing govt.<br />
intervention.<br />
10/08: Cisco<br />
warns.<br />
01/09<br />
Samsung<br />
reports its first<br />
qua rterl y l oss.<br />
Qimonda<br />
bankrupt.<br />
Jan-09<br />
Mar-09<br />
Apr-09<br />
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4
Six Month Improvement in<br />
Spot Prices<br />
VLSI's Spot Market Chip Price Performance Index<br />
330<br />
320<br />
310<br />
300<br />
290<br />
280<br />
270<br />
260<br />
250<br />
240<br />
230<br />
220<br />
210<br />
200<br />
190<br />
180<br />
170<br />
160<br />
150<br />
140<br />
130<br />
120<br />
110<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
VLSI's CPPI<br />
24 Month Moore's Law Cycle<br />
12 Month Moore's Law Cycle<br />
Spot Prices:Stable ML Gap: From +23.3 to +24.3<br />
VLSI's CPPI finished the last w eek of May on a positive note,<br />
increasing 0.3 points. Memory spot prices remained soft, but MPUs<br />
picked up the slack and finished the w eek higher. The overall level of<br />
activity in the spot market w as light as traders continued to retreat.<br />
Many fear that the impending increases in memory production could<br />
w eaken prices again. How ever, memory suppliers appear confident<br />
that demand is strong enough to absorb the increases in supply. It’s a<br />
gamble that w ill likely help the leading suppliers, w hich have the funds<br />
to shrink and low er the manufacturing costs. How ever, the ones that<br />
are behind the technology curve could end up losing more money.<br />
5/11/2009<br />
4/6/2009<br />
3/2/2009<br />
1/26/2009<br />
12/22/2008<br />
11/17/2008<br />
10/13/2008<br />
9/8/2008<br />
8/4/2008<br />
6/30/2008<br />
5/26/2008<br />
4/21/2008<br />
3/17/2008<br />
2/11/2008<br />
1/7/2008<br />
12/3/2007<br />
10/29/2007<br />
9/24/2007<br />
8/20/2007<br />
7/16/2007<br />
6/11/2007<br />
5/7/2007<br />
4/2/2007<br />
2/26/2007<br />
1/22/2007<br />
12/18/2006<br />
11/13/2006<br />
10/9/2006<br />
9/4/2006<br />
7/31/2006<br />
6/26/2006<br />
5/22/2006<br />
4/17/2006<br />
3/13/2006<br />
2/6/2006<br />
1/2/2006<br />
Week Ending<br />
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5
Inventories Are at Normal Levels<br />
IC Inventories<br />
30<br />
2.5<br />
Total Inventory ($B) OEM IC Inventory ($B)<br />
Die Bank ($B) Total Inventory to Billings Ratio<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
2<br />
1.5<br />
1<br />
0.5<br />
0<br />
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6<br />
JAN '04<br />
MAR<br />
MAY<br />
JUL<br />
SEP<br />
NOV<br />
JAN '05<br />
MAR<br />
MAY<br />
JUL<br />
SEP<br />
NOV<br />
JAN '06<br />
MAR<br />
MAY<br />
JUL<br />
SEP<br />
NOV<br />
JAN '07<br />
MAR<br />
MAY<br />
JUL<br />
SEP<br />
NOV<br />
JAN '08<br />
MAR<br />
MAY<br />
JUL<br />
SEP<br />
NOV<br />
JAN '09<br />
MAR<br />
MAY F<br />
Billions of Dollars<br />
Inventory to Billings Ratio<br />
0
Utilization Rates Recovering<br />
CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATES<br />
(chip production/manufacturing capacity, in %)<br />
100<br />
95<br />
90<br />
85<br />
80<br />
75<br />
70<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
W.W. Front End Utilization<br />
W.W. <strong>Test</strong> Utilization<br />
W.W.Assembly Utilization<br />
50<br />
2005 JAN<br />
MAR<br />
MAY<br />
JUL<br />
SEPT<br />
NOV<br />
2006 JAN<br />
MAR<br />
MAY<br />
JUL<br />
SEPT<br />
NOV<br />
2007 JAN<br />
MAR<br />
MAY<br />
JUL<br />
SEPT<br />
NOV<br />
2008 JAN<br />
MAR<br />
MAY<br />
JUL<br />
SEPT<br />
NOV<br />
2009 JAN<br />
MAR<br />
MAY F<br />
JUL F<br />
SEPT F<br />
NOV F<br />
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7
<strong>Semiconductor</strong> Business is Improving<br />
-11%<br />
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8
Drivers for Next Upturn<br />
• Mobile Internet Device (MID)<br />
•Windows 7<br />
•SSDs<br />
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9
Questions<br />
• Does this economic downturn affect Moore’s law?<br />
– Not really<br />
• When do you think the industry will be moving to<br />
450mm diameter wafer?<br />
– 2020<br />
• Do you predict more consolidation in big companies<br />
especially in Memory market?<br />
– Absolutely<br />
• Can you comment on the current trend of smart<br />
phones taking on more personal computer<br />
characteristics and what that means for the various<br />
semiconductor market segments?<br />
– Processors alone can be $20 – $30B<br />
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10
Market Summary<br />
• <strong>Semiconductor</strong> industry was healthy<br />
entering into this recession.<br />
• <strong>Semiconductor</strong> business is returning to<br />
normal but lower operating levels.<br />
• Spot prices improving.<br />
– Production cuts help tremendeously<br />
• Capex still remains very low.<br />
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11
Probe Card Market<br />
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12
Top Probe Card Suppliers<br />
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13
Probe Card Forecast<br />
Probe Card History & Forecast<br />
1,800<br />
1,600<br />
Total Probe Card & Related Revenue:<br />
Spares & Service Revenue:<br />
1,400<br />
1,200<br />
1,000<br />
$M<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
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14
Probe Card Revenue Distribution<br />
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15
And The Data<br />
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16
Questions<br />
• With so many private companies supplying 'front-end'<br />
hardware (probes, boards, sockets, etc.) for test &<br />
burn-in, what is the reliability of collected market<br />
information; how are 'blind spots' mitigated?<br />
– We drive to about 80% survey response coverage (revenues),<br />
probe card report was close to 90%<br />
• And more and more we see semiconductor<br />
manufacturers transferring test coverage complexity<br />
into the tester interface (probe card) thereby increasing<br />
the cost of the cards and making the conscience<br />
decision to not upgrade testers. - The long-term<br />
implications of this trend are thought provoking.<br />
– I can not tell but see the data in next few slides<br />
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17
Challenges in <strong>Test</strong><br />
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18
Buy Rates Show That<br />
No Glut in ATE<br />
ATE Buy Rates<br />
(ATE sales as a % of device sales)<br />
6.0%<br />
5.0%<br />
Memory<br />
Non-Memory<br />
4.0%<br />
3.0%<br />
2.0%<br />
1.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
1991<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009F<br />
Year<br />
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19
ATE is Less Than Half of<br />
Total <strong>Test</strong> Hardware Spending<br />
TEST HARDWARE SPENDING<br />
10000<br />
9000<br />
8000<br />
Interface Boards<br />
Sockets<br />
7000<br />
Probe Cards<br />
$M<br />
6000<br />
5000<br />
4000<br />
3000<br />
Handlers<br />
Probers<br />
Other ATE<br />
2000<br />
1000<br />
0<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
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SOC ATE<br />
Memory ATE<br />
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20
Rapid Decline in ATE Buy Rate<br />
<strong>Test</strong> Hardware Buy Rates<br />
3.5%<br />
3.0%<br />
2.5%<br />
Probe Card & Sockets<br />
Handlers & Probers<br />
ATE<br />
2.0%<br />
1.5%<br />
1.0%<br />
0.5%<br />
0.0%<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
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21
Drivers for Declining ATE &<br />
Material Handling Buy Rates<br />
• End of Functional <strong>Test</strong>ing Era.<br />
– <strong>Test</strong>ers cost less.<br />
• Large Scale Implementation of DFT.<br />
• Modular <strong>Test</strong>er<br />
– Upgrade cards only, higher utilization<br />
• Parallel <strong>Test</strong>ing<br />
• OSATs increasing share of testing.<br />
– Higher utilization, efficiencies due to business model.<br />
• <strong>Test</strong>ing less<br />
– Probe card & socket data does not agree.<br />
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22
Problem of The Last Decade<br />
– IC ASPs<br />
IC Average Selling Prices<br />
2.20<br />
2.00<br />
'98 - '08 CAGR = -3.2%<br />
1.80<br />
1.60<br />
1.40<br />
1.20<br />
1.00<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
$<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
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23
<strong>Test</strong> Has Responded to the<br />
Challenge<br />
ATE Capital Cost per IC Unit Shipped<br />
(ATE, Handler and Prober Depreciation Cost per IC)<br />
0.120<br />
7.0%<br />
0.100<br />
6.0%<br />
0.080<br />
5.0%<br />
4.0%<br />
0.060<br />
0.040<br />
0.020<br />
ATE Capital cost per IC unit<br />
ATE Capital cost as % of IC ASP<br />
3.0%<br />
2.0%<br />
1.0%<br />
0.000<br />
0.0%<br />
1982<br />
1983<br />
1984<br />
1985<br />
1986<br />
1987<br />
1988<br />
1989<br />
1990<br />
1991<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
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24
Questions<br />
• Relative test costs per unit are increasing,<br />
what are the best ways to reduce them?<br />
– Data shows that hardware cost portion has declined<br />
• Regarding trend of outsourcing test to<br />
subcons, which difficulties do you expect for<br />
the "old fashioned" manufacturers?<br />
– Product differentiation is the key<br />
• How will things shake out w/r/t the<br />
juggling/changes in the top suppliers?<br />
– ATE & probers are ok w/ 3 suppliers. Others will<br />
see number of suppliers to decline.<br />
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25
Summary<br />
• Deep freeze in semiconductor manufacturing is<br />
easing.<br />
• Expect probe card and socket business recovers<br />
sooner than ATE.<br />
– Back-end consumables/materials are already<br />
bouncing back.<br />
• <strong>Test</strong> hardware is $6 - $7B business.<br />
– Understanding the dynamics of the industry helps<br />
both the suppliers and chip makers.<br />
• <strong>Test</strong> has responded to declining ASPs and<br />
continues to do so<br />
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26
Thank You<br />
<strong>VLSIresearch</strong><br />
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27