Statistics 1 Revision Notes - Mr Barton Maths

Independent events
Definition. A and B are independent ⇔ P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)
It is also true that P(A | B) = P(A | B′ ) = P(A).
A and B are not linked, they have no effect on each other.
To prove that A and B are independent
first find P(A), P(B) and P(A ∩ B) without assuming that P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B),
second show that P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B).
Note: If A and B are not independent then P(A ∩ B) ≠ P(A) × P(B), and must be found in
another way, usually considering sample spaces and/or Venn diagrams.
Example: A red die and a green die are rolled and the total score recorded.
A is the event ‘total score is 7’, B is the event ‘green score is 6’ and C is the event ‘total
score is 10’.
Show that A and B are independent, but B and C are not independent.
Solution:
The events A, B and C are shown on the diagram.
green
6 × × × × × × B P(A) = , P(B) =
5 × × × × × × and P(A ∩ B) =
4 × × × × × × P(A) × P(B) =
C
3 × × × × × × ⇒ A and B are independent.
2 × × × × × ×
= P(A ∩ B)
1 × × × × × × P(B) = , P(C) =
A
and P(B ∩ C) =
1 2 3 4 5 6 red P(B) × P(C) = ≠ P(B ∩ C)
from diagram
from diagram
⇒
B and C are not independent
Example: A and B are independent events. P(A) = 0⋅5 and P(A ∩ B′) = 0⋅3. Find P(B).
Solution:
⇒
P(A) = 0⋅5 and P(A ∩ B′) = 0⋅3
P(A ∩ B) = 0⋅5 – 0⋅3 = 0⋅2
A
0⋅3
B
26 14/04/2013 Statistics 1 SDB