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Statistics 1 Revision Notes - Mr Barton Maths

Statistics 1 Revision Notes - Mr Barton Maths

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Example: The weights of chocolate bars are normally distributed with mean 205 g and<br />

standard deviation 2⋅6 g. The stated weight of each bar is 200 g.<br />

(a) Find the probability that a single bar is underweight.<br />

(b) Four bars are chosen at random. Find the probability that fewer than two bars are<br />

underweight.<br />

Solution:<br />

(a) Let W be the weight of a chocolate bar, W ~ N(205, 2⋅6 2 ).<br />

Z = <br />

<br />

= <br />

·<br />

= – 1⋅9230769…<br />

P(W < 200) = P(Z < – 1⋅92) = 1 – Φ(1⋅92) = 1 – 0⋅9726<br />

⇒ probability of an underweight bar is 0⋅0274.<br />

(b) We want the probability that 0 or 1 bars chosen from 4 are underweight.<br />

Let U be underweight and C be correct weight.<br />

P(1 underweight) = P(CCCU) + P(CCUC) + P(CUCC) + P(UCCC)<br />

= 4 × 0⋅0274 × 0⋅9726 3 = 0⋅1008354753<br />

P(0 underweight) = 0⋅9276 4 = 0⋅7403600224<br />

⇒ the probability that fewer than two bars are underweight = 0⋅841 to 3 S.F.<br />

14/04/2013 <strong>Statistics</strong> 1 SDB 41

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