Future Society in 2024: 21st Century 'Good Life' - Rural Economy ...

The chart below shows the outcome for the amount of land accounted for by the Deep Rural typology
in 2024. In 2001 the LADs described as Deep Rural accounted for 25.1% of all rural land. Our model
suggests that by 2024 anywhere between 8% and 34% of the land area might be made up of this
typology, but that the mean level from all the simulations would be 19.4%. Using the distribution
function shown below we are also able to make statements such as ‘on the basis of the distribution
functions for each of the drivers in the model we are 87% certain that the Deep Rural typology will
account for less land in 2024 than it did in 2001’.
Distribution for the amount of rural land accounted for
by the Deep Rural typology in 2024
Probability
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
Mean value for
proportion of land
accounted for by
Deep Rural in 2004
P
r
o
p
o
r
t
i
o
n
2%
0%
5%
8%
11%
14%
17%
20%
23%
26%
29%
Deep Rural's share of rural land mass
32%
3.3 Summary of 20 year workshop process
In order to arrive at the 20 year scenarios, the outputs from the typology creation process and the
modelling exercise were used in two carefully constructed syndicate exercises as follows:
• Firstly, teams were allocated to review two of the typologies today and develop, with
reference to the Rural Futures Knowledge Base summary, a view of how life within this
typology will have developed in 20 years time. Teams were given an holistic schematic to
work with to ensure that they thought about the future lives of people in the round and
were asked to make a presentation to the plenary group using prepared visual materials and
‘mood boards’ to express the key aspects of how life would be. These outputs are
summarised in the appendix in the 20 year typology descriptions (see appendix 2).
• Taking these as a starting point, following a presentation of the modelling process, three
teams were assigned to work one of the three scenario outputs each. The task for the
exercise was to review the relative weight of the typologies within the scenario, discuss
what this would mean for rural society as a whole and to find ways of characterising and
describing the resulting mix in a short hand and compelling way. These again were
presented back to the plenary group and form the basis of the 20 year scenario descriptions
below.
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