Future Society in 2024: 21st Century 'Good Life' - Rural Economy ...

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maintaining the spirit of the countryside, government initiatives have helped farmers to make this transition. 11.2 Main features In this scenario countryside is treated, to all extents and purposes, as a protected remnant of English heritage – resulting in a huge effort to ensure its preservation, including traditional English flora and fauna, which will have difficulties surviving due to climate change and the effects of ‘alien’ species taking over key habitats. The countryside is recognised as a piece of British cultural inheritance and therefore efforts are made to restore it to an ideal condition. Britain has left the European Union, and national identity issues are very high up among voter concerns. There is a resurgent English (and Welsh) sense of nationalism/patriotism. English and Welsh identity politics are therefore foremost among political concerns. Socio-economic issues have very much faded from the political agenda and instead politics revolves around ‘post-material’ concerns such as identity politics – expressing who you are by your attachment to place or origin. This incorporates both the politics of national identity, the politics of regional identity and of countryside identity. Planning controls are very strict and do not allow any inward migration. Inward flows are primarily now from the wealthy retired, rather than those in working life. There is therefore a renewed lifecycle element to rural population movements, with the young moving to the city to find work, who then ‘cascade out’ to the countryside in later life. Strict planning controls are the result of political pressure on the part of established rural residents. Regionalisation of political structures gives rural areas stronger control over land use policy. There is a strong upsurge in the political salience of rural issues, with the consequence both that there is political support for rural interest parties (e.g. the Countryside Alliance) and recognition of the importance of rural issues among established political parties. Local politics are driven by a strong sense of ‘NIMBY’-ism. There are relatively vibrant communities among those that have bought into rural life, in particular among the affluent, mobile and sometimes single elderly population. These communities however tend to be ‘communities of choice’ – often with members from far and wide across rural Britain, who happen simply to share certain interests. 42
The key industries in the countryside are therefore tourism and retirement-related services. A massive increase in global travel and demand for experience-related services leads to a substantial growth in tourism, in all nations. Tourists will include not only Americans and Japanese, but also Chinese and Indians. Tourism in the countryside means that there is a great deal of rural ‘reconstruction’ to make the countryside into a showpiece of a bygone ‘traditional England’. This will include ‘mock’ English farms which will effectively be ‘museums’ of a now obsolete way of life. However, a select few farms will have survived as a rising demand for 'Englishness' gives rise to a niche market for branded local products, such as authentic Cheddar cheese and organic Cumberland sausages. Recognising the importance of agriculture in maintaining the spirit of the countryside, government initiatives have helped farmers to make this transition. An ageing population will result such that rural Britain is primarily composed of retired individuals and couples. Advances in genetics technology have generated a situation in which average life expectancies have reached well into the 100s, and the healthcare industry is one of the largest rural sectors, with retired individuals benefiting from extensive forms of new health treatments, e.g. gene therapy, etc. 11.3 A day in the life of… Atul Singh Atul is a gene therapy specialist previously based in Bangalore, who has arrived in the UK with his family on a special work permit. His main service is in providing treatment that delays the ageing process, and his client base in England lie in the wealthy retirement village of Kidlington, set in the heart of Oxfordshire. He lives in a mobile home, which he uses to travel from village to village, providing his services across the broad remit of the local county. The county has a strong degree of political autonomy and has granted him residency permission to work there. The local population are largely white, elderly, and highly affluent. During his day he gets up, sets his kids up on their long-distance learning, begins his rounds to all his health clients. Atul travels frequently to visit friends and professional contacts both domestically and abroad. The local people of Dimlington value his services and he is well remunerated – but has difficulty being accepted as a member of the community. 11.4 Public response Respondents saw this scenario as being very much a continuation of ‘21 st Century Good Life’. It appealed more to the ‘deep rural’ respondents around Alnwick than to the ‘transient rural’/’dynamic commuter’ respondents around Ashford. 43
Page 1 and 2: Rural Futures Project: Scenario bui
Page 3 and 4: 1. Introduction to the Rural Future
Page 5 and 6: 3. Developing the 20 year rural fut
Page 7 and 8: • Transient rural Mainly located
Page 9 and 10: More detailed definitions of each o
Page 11 and 12: So, for example for the driver ‘t
Page 13 and 14: 4. Overview of the 20 year scenario
Page 15 and 16: 5. 2024a: Central Scenario - Consum
Page 17 and 18: 5.2 Main features ‘From farming a
Page 19 and 20: 5.4 Life in the… dynamic commuter
Page 21 and 22: 6. 2024b: 21 st Century ‘Good Lif
Page 23 and 24: 6.2 Main features Due to political
Page 25 and 26: 6.6 Public response For those livin
Page 27 and 28: 7.1 Summary of drivers and assumpti
Page 29 and 30: 7.4 Life in the… settled commuter
Page 31 and 32: 8. Developing the 50 year rural fut
Page 33 and 34: 8.6 Write up and visualisation deve
Page 35 and 36: 10. 2054a: Vibrant Variety 35
Page 37 and 38: 10.2 Main features The essence of t
Page 39 and 40: 10.5.2 Implications for Defra/polic
Page 41: 11.1 Summary of drivers and assumpt
Page 45 and 46: 12. 2054c: Fortress and Fences 45
Page 47 and 48: 12.2 Main features In the gated cou
Page 49 and 50: Much of John’s leisure time is ca
Page 51 and 52: 13. 2054d: Garden and guilds 51
Page 53 and 54: 13.2 Main features Under this scena
Page 55 and 56: 13.3 A day in the life of… Isabel
Page 57 and 58: Contributors Scenario Workshop Atte
Page 59 and 60: Scenario Workshop Attendees - Wedne
Page 61 and 62: Appendices 1. Typology definitions
Page 63 and 64: B. Settled Commuter Average Settled
Page 65 and 66: D. ‘Deep rural’ Average Deep ru
Page 67 and 68: F. ‘Dynamic Commuter’ Average D
Page 69 and 70: Appendix 2: Life in the typologies
Page 71 and 72: Economic: In recent years there has
Page 73 and 74: Economic: Deep rural areas are surp
Page 75 and 76: Key Trends Political: A key politic
Page 77 and 78: Economic: The trend for a new speci
Page 79 and 80: It is also possible that such areas
Page 81 and 82: D. Background The areas around Alnw
Page 83 and 84: Some respondents felt that in 2054,
Page 85 and 86: J. Conclusions On this evidence, th
Page 87 and 88: David Darton: followed by posing wh
Page 89 and 90: F. Final discussion session Followi

Future Society in 2024: 21st Century 'Good Life' - Rural Economy ...

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