Future Society in 2024: 21st Century 'Good Life' - Rural Economy ...

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6.1 Summary of drivers and assumptions for this scenario Economic Possible Degrees Actual Degrees Economic growth Fast, medium or slow Slow/ medium Countryside as a place of Partial production - agriculture Countryside as a place of No production - manufacture Countryside as a place of Yes, partial or no Partial/Yes production - new enterprises Countryside as a place of Yes consumption Energy Issues Solved, partially solved, not solved Partially solved Political Possible Degrees Actual Degrees General description of UK political environment General description of global political environment Description of rural policy regime Centres of political power Laissez faire, mixed or protectionist Local, regional, national or international Mixed Protectionist Local Policy Possible Degrees Actual Degrees Housing policy Strict, no change or lax Strict Transport policy Successful, no change or unsuccessful No change Political initiatives toward the countryside (promotion of…) Urban regeneration Successful, neutral or unsuccessful Successful Other Possible Degrees Actual Degrees Effects of climate change High, moderate or low Moderate Occurrence of one-off events - terrorism, bio terrorism etc Frequent, occasional or not frequent Occasional 'Consumer' attitudes toward the countryside (symbolic rurality) Positive, neutral or negative Positive Degree of eco - protection High, moderate or low High Inclusive, neutral or Social Policy exclusive Exclusive Technology Active, neutral or passive Passive Rural population growth High, moderate or low Low Assumptions for agriculture: Although under this scenario there may be a decline in the importance of agriculture it is likely to be one where the sector fares best (in terms of remaining a significant economic sector in its own right). However, in many areas the purpose of farming will be more for landscape gardening that for food production although there may be successful local initiatives to create local produce specialised fare. As in most scenarios an increasing share of the food consumed in the UK will be imported. 22
6.2 Main features Due to political pressure from established rural in-migrants, their control over local and regional planning authorities and the effectiveness of the countryside lobby, there is a tighter land use policy. This policy shift is made demographically feasible by a ‘tailing-off’ of counterurbanisation: by 2024, many of the groups most attracted to the countryside are already there and the inflow of newcomers is balanced by the outflow of the rural young to city areas and the rising mortality of the baby-boom generation. Under this scenario there is a cessation of many of the present trends which we associate with counterurbanisation, such as, the expansion of a local service and small business economy. In addition, international competition means that firms are led to move, not from the city to the countryside, but rather to outsource their operations to other countries. Rural manufacturing and back-office functions have gone the same way as their urban counterparts - overseas. The end of rural manufacturing - presently responsible for a fifth of all rural jobs - will lead to greater income polarisation as former workers move into low skilled service sector employment. Failure to attract new businesses to rural areas will mean that the most affluent in rural areas will be those that have made their money elsewhere. 6.3 Change in rural typologies Under this scenario, commuter zones and retirement retreats shrink, and the deep rural areas expand considerably (in land area but not population) – see table below. Alternative scenarios for rural land use in 2024 35% 30% 25% 2001 2024 - 21st Century Good Life 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Peripheral Amenity Deep Rural Retirement retreats Transient Rural Dynamic commuter Dynamic Rural Settled commuter 23
Page 1 and 2: Rural Futures Project: Scenario bui
Page 3 and 4: 1. Introduction to the Rural Future
Page 5 and 6: 3. Developing the 20 year rural fut
Page 7 and 8: • Transient rural Mainly located
Page 9 and 10: More detailed definitions of each o
Page 11 and 12: So, for example for the driver ‘t
Page 13 and 14: 4. Overview of the 20 year scenario
Page 15 and 16: 5. 2024a: Central Scenario - Consum
Page 17 and 18: 5.2 Main features ‘From farming a
Page 19 and 20: 5.4 Life in the… dynamic commuter
Page 21: 6. 2024b: 21 st Century ‘Good Lif
Page 25 and 26: 6.6 Public response For those livin
Page 27 and 28: 7.1 Summary of drivers and assumpti
Page 29 and 30: 7.4 Life in the… settled commuter
Page 31 and 32: 8. Developing the 50 year rural fut
Page 33 and 34: 8.6 Write up and visualisation deve
Page 35 and 36: 10. 2054a: Vibrant Variety 35
Page 37 and 38: 10.2 Main features The essence of t
Page 39 and 40: 10.5.2 Implications for Defra/polic
Page 41 and 42: 11.1 Summary of drivers and assumpt
Page 43 and 44: The key industries in the countrysi
Page 45 and 46: 12. 2054c: Fortress and Fences 45
Page 47 and 48: 12.2 Main features In the gated cou
Page 49 and 50: Much of John’s leisure time is ca
Page 51 and 52: 13. 2054d: Garden and guilds 51
Page 53 and 54: 13.2 Main features Under this scena
Page 55 and 56: 13.3 A day in the life of… Isabel
Page 57 and 58: Contributors Scenario Workshop Atte
Page 59 and 60: Scenario Workshop Attendees - Wedne
Page 61 and 62: Appendices 1. Typology definitions
Page 63 and 64: B. Settled Commuter Average Settled
Page 65 and 66: D. ‘Deep rural’ Average Deep ru
Page 67 and 68: F. ‘Dynamic Commuter’ Average D
Page 69 and 70: Appendix 2: Life in the typologies
Page 71 and 72: Economic: In recent years there has
Page 73 and 74:
Economic: Deep rural areas are surp
Page 75 and 76:
Key Trends Political: A key politic
Page 77 and 78:
Economic: The trend for a new speci
Page 79 and 80:
It is also possible that such areas
Page 81 and 82:
D. Background The areas around Alnw
Page 83 and 84:
Some respondents felt that in 2054,
Page 85 and 86:
J. Conclusions On this evidence, th
Page 87 and 88:
David Darton: followed by posing wh
Page 89 and 90:
F. Final discussion session Followi
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Future Society in 2024: 21st Century 'Good Life' - Rural Economy ...

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