International Technology Roadmap for PV - PVMC

International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic
(ITRPV) - 4 th Edition - Results 2012
Stephan Raithel, SEMI Europe, Director PV Europe
10 July, 2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop, San Francisco

AGENDA
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV
• PV learning curve and cost considerations
• ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results 2012
- Materials
- Processes
- Products
• Summary and Outlook
2
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV history and structure
- Started w/ 9 European cell-manufacturing companies in June 2009
- Publication of 1st edition at the PV FMF 2010 (supported by SEMI PV Group)
- Extended along the value chain + including of new companies
- data of participants are processed by SEMI agreed results are published
- Today: publication of the 4 th edition with results collected 2012
- Working group now includes important players from Asia and Europe
ITRPV working group structure
ITRPV Steering
Committee
(2 co-chairs from each region &
SEMI representative*)
c-Si wafermodule
PV
System
Inverter
Silicon
Other technical topics deppend on input of the industry
3
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Methodology and structure
Parameters in main areas are discussed
along the value chain for:
Materials
- Poly-Silicon, Crystallization & Wafering
- Cell processing
- Module manufacturing
Process
Products
SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL MODULE SYSTEM
Poly-Si
Ingot wafer cell module system
value chain elements considered by the 4 th edition of the ITRPV
4
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

AGENDA
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV
• PV learning curve and cost considerations
• ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results 2012
- Materials
- Processes
- Products
• Summary and Outlook
5
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

The challenging price race of the PV industry
1976
2006
06 - 2011
06 - 2012*
01 - 2013
clear goal: competitive PV-based power generation
What measures have to be taken to keep path?
The ITRPV roadmap describes the way
6
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

Cost considerations
Price drop below cost challenges the PV industry
mc-Si module price – 01/13: 0,694 US$/Wp*
PRICES ALONG THE
VALUE CHAIN
(in USD/ Wp)
How to improve the cost position further w/o sacrificing quality and efficiency?
ITRPV helps to set the right markers
* Avg. Module prices end of January 2013 source: BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance), Energy Trend, PV Insights.
7
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

Cost considerations
Poly Si price dropped during the last years:
2010: 67$/kg
E 2011: 30$/kg
2H 2012 20$/kg
Module price dropped during the last years:
01 2010: 1.87 $/Wp
01 2013 : 0.69$/Wp
01 2013 : 17$/kg
prices drop below cost
…. in a tough battle
•Avg. Module prices source: BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance), Energy Trend, PV Insights.
8
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

AGENDA
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV
• PV learning curve and cost considerations
• ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results 2012
- Materials
- Processes
- Products
• Summary and Outlook
9
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Results – Materials – Poly - Si / Wafering
Poly-Si:
PV grade poly-Si quality between 8N and 9N sufficient, also for high eta cells
Poly-Si technologies will improve and
compete for cost reductions
umg –Si expected w/ small share
Wafering:
Diamond wire based sawing will become dominant for Mono from 2017 on
Synchronization in cell processing needed
Slurry based sawing will be dominating in mc-Si wafering
Kerf less technologies not yet seen as cost competitive against matured technologies
10
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Results – Materials – Cell
Wafer thickness trend had to be revised again
180 …160 µm wafers preferred due to cost benefits vs. material savings
But: gap between module and wafer/cell manufacturer expectations
But: gap between
Requirements of
Manufacturers for
module and
wafer/cell
11
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Results – Materials - Cell
Reduction of Silver consumption per cell
- necessary as Silver is most expensive material - Cu is supposed to replace
Silver starting in 2015
but for Cu, solutions for reliability and adhesion have to be available
- mainstream technology in metallization : screen printing for years to come
plating will compete from 2015
200mg @1000$/kg = 4.9$cent/Wp
30% of cell convertion cost!
12
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Results – Materials – Modules
Costs of module manufacturing are sensitive to all materials (aprox. equal share)
improvements are implemented in performance and costs
Approaches for performance increase:
- Reduction of optical losses
i.e. Reflection / Absorption
- Reduction of interconnection losses
Solutions for performance increase
- reduced Glass absorption and Frontside reflexion by AR coatings
- improvement of UV performance of encapsulants
13
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

AGENDA
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV
• PV learning curve and cost considerations
• ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results 2012
- Materials
- Processes
- Products
• Summary and Outlook
14
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Results – Processes – Manufacturing (1)
Crystallization:
- Using economy of scale requires
high throughput approaches
accelerated trend to larger ingots
Gen 6 dominates high volume casting
- higher throughput in mono pulling by
increased ingot mass
Wafering:
- increased troughput by
continouse improvement (slurry)
New technology roll out (diamond)
15
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Results – Processes – Manufacturing (2)
Cell production:
- tools have to get increased throughputs
current situation requires
- maturing the performance of installed base
- focusing on upgrades vs. new invests
the gap between front- and back end should be closed
in-line and clustered fab concepts are possible
Year
Front end [wafer/h]
(chemical + thermal)
Single line back end [wafer/h]
(metallization + classification)
2012 3600 2800
2013-2015 5000 3200
2017 6400 4200
2023 7200 7200
- Improvements result in reduction of relative invest for new cell fabs
over the next
16
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Results – Processes – Manufacturing (3)
Module :
- throughput of module tools is expected to increase
Introducing

ITRPV Results – Processes – Technology ( Cell 1)
Recombination losses have to be reduced
- in the crystalline Si bulk material
- at the front side of the cell
- et the back side of the cell
AL-BSF not suitable below 200fA/cm²
color coding indicates the progress
rear side passivation concepts are ramping in mass production
new production machines need to become mature
improved mc-Si casting boosts material performance for processes w/ lower CoO
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012
18

ITRPV Results – Processes – Technology ( Cell 2)
Cell front side (n-doped emitters ):
- emitter sheet resistance increase is needed
reduced FS J0 to below 100 fA/cm²
enable contacting by new pasts and/or SE
- Reduction of finger width w/o losses in
conductivity down to 40µm
screen printing improves
new techniques for fine line print
CoO has to be competitive
- Improved alignment accuracy for SE,
double printing and new cell concepts
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012
19

ITRPV Results – Processes – Technology (Module)
Trend of cell to module power loss according to ITRPV
- Improvements in 2013 due to wide introduction of AR glass
- new interconnect
- improved encapsulation techniques
power gain by encapsulation is possible
Gap between alkaline and acidic texturing will remain valid
20
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

AGENDA
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV
• PV learning curve and cost considerations
• ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results 2012
- Materials
- Processes
- Products
• Summary and Outlook
21
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Results – Products – Crystallization
Material landscape for c-Si is expected to diversify (market shares o/a)
Casted mc–Si will develop from
classic mc- Si
HPmc – Si
mono–Si will split
n- type will increase share
p-type will reduce share
share casted / mono is expected shift from 60:40 to 50:50 in 2023
n-type mono material will be used for high eta cell concepts
new mc-Si products (HPmc-Si)gain market share vs. conventional mc-Si casting
mono-like material has less share due to non maturation
22
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

ITRPV Results – Products – Cell / Module (1)
Trends for Double sided contact c-Si cells
Efficiencies of p-and n-type c-Si cells will rise
- stabilized efficiencies only are considered
- shown are cells out of a state of the art mass
production line
- gap between mono and multi remains valid
Trend of output power of 60 cell modules
- cell efficiency + module improvements included
- trend implies shift to full square Mono
- alkalic texturing is assumed for mono/mono-like
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012
23

ITRPV Results – Products – Cell / Module (2)
Diversification in c-Si cell concepts and Module products is expected
Double sided contact cells remain main stream
- rear side contact cells up to 35% in 2023
- bi-facial cell concepts are expected
Module size is expected to diversify
- 60 cell modules remain main stream
- > 20% share for large modules (≥72)
- 10% share special sizes for niche markets
- frameless modules gain market share
(>20% from 2015 onwards)
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012
24

ITRPV Results – Products – PV Systems
Considerations of BOS cost trend for PV Systems >100kWp in different reagions
BOS – cost excluding Module cost
- Mounting, wiring, and inverter are most expensive elements
- PV system set up is in competition w/ non PV industry
i.e. cost reductions compete w/ increasing prices
- Special solutions will reduce mounting cost
Example: EU
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012
25

AGENDA
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITRPV
• PV learning curve and cost considerations
• ITRPV 4 rd edition - some results 2012
- Materials
- Processes
- Products
• Summary and Outlook
26
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

Summary Challenges – near term
Basic challenge for near term: upgrades vs. new invest
• Further reduction in process costs for poly-Si
• cell-to-module conversion w/o power loss
• Througput increase (front-end & back-end)
• Efficiency increase with existing lines / technologies
• Ongoing cost reduction
• Silver reduction / plating technologies
27
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

Summary Challenges – mid term / long term
• Further reduction in process costs for poly-Si
• Wafer thickness reduction
• Automation & cell-to-module integration
• „new cell concepts“ vs. Standardizes processes
• Ongoing cost reduction
• Silver replacement (printing vs. Plating)
• Different module types
• Glass-glass / frameless
• Efficiency increase as forecasted
• Picking the right / most promising technology (process)
• Implementation of new sawing technologies
28
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

Summary ITRPV
ITRPV shows:
- ways to reach cost reduction of PV generated electricity
- Efficiency improvements have to be implemented without huge cost increases
- costs per piece have to be reduced continuously in parallel to efficiency increases
ITRPV is a common platform for manufacturers, suppliers, and customers
Conclusion:
- Further reduction of Si-PV manufacturing cost is possible
without sacrificing quality and reliability
- Increasing cell efficiencies will support the cost reduction
Next Steps of ITRPV:
- Include more manufactures from Asia and America
- Create subgroups w/ focus on high-eta / rear-side concepts
- Include equipment and material suppliers to provide solutions
- Consider more system trends 29
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

Outlook
ITRPV parameter trends considered in different learning scenarios
1) eta gain @ constant cost, 2) cost increase, 3) cost reduction + eta gain
06/2012 12/2012 12/2013 12/2015 12/2017 12/2020 12/2023
Cum. volume shipped (GWp)* 92 110 140 210 310 460 640
Avg. Wp increase - 2% 4% 4% 6% 7% 7%
Scenario 1 ($/Wp) 0.83 0.81 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.65 0,61
Increased complexity - 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Scenario 2 ($/Wp) 0,83 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.83 0,83
Cost reduction - 1% 5% 5% 10% 10% 10%
Scenario 3 ($/Wp) 0,83 0.80 0.73 0.67 0.55 0.46 0,38
Module pricing in June 2012
Module pricing in January 2013
= cost level (EU/US/J 0.8 $/Wp; PRC 0.65 $/Wp)**
= below cost
Possible and needed cost reductions will meet prices around 2015
Roadmap identifies focus points
efficiency gain is needed; cost reduction is mandatory
* Yearly shipment volume between 30 GWp and 60 GWp
** S. Mehta, GTM Study, Global PV Module Manufacturers 2013: Competitive Positioning, Consolidation and the China Factor”October 15, 2012
30
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

Roadmap outlook: PV learning continues
Efficiency gains and cost reductions per piece have to be combined
31
2nd Annual c-Si PVMC Workshop,
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA
ITRPV 4 th Edition – Results 2012

Questions?
Stephan Raithel
SEMI Europe
Director PV Europe
Helmholtzstrasse 2-9
D-10587 Berlin, Germany
sraithel@semi.org
Cell: +49.170.4731126
Phone:
+49.30.3030807712