International Technology Roadmap for PV - PVMC
International Technology Roadmap for PV - PVMC
International Technology Roadmap for PV - PVMC
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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Technology</strong> <strong>Roadmap</strong> <strong>for</strong> Photovoltaic<br />
(ITR<strong>PV</strong>) - 4 th Edition - Results 2012<br />
Stephan Raithel, SEMI Europe, Director <strong>PV</strong> Europe<br />
10 July, 2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop, San Francisco
AGENDA<br />
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITR<strong>PV</strong><br />
• <strong>PV</strong> learning curve and cost considerations<br />
• ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 rd edition - some results 2012<br />
- Materials<br />
- Processes<br />
- Products<br />
• Summary and Outlook<br />
2<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> history and structure<br />
- Started w/ 9 European cell-manufacturing companies in June 2009<br />
- Publication of 1st edition at the <strong>PV</strong> FMF 2010 (supported by SEMI <strong>PV</strong> Group)<br />
- Extended along the value chain + including of new companies<br />
- data of participants are processed by SEMI agreed results are published<br />
- Today: publication of the 4 th edition with results collected 2012<br />
- Working group now includes important players from Asia and Europe<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> working group structure<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Steering<br />
Committee<br />
(2 co-chairs from each region &<br />
SEMI representative*)<br />
c-Si wafermodule<br />
<strong>PV</strong><br />
System<br />
Inverter<br />
Silicon<br />
Other technical topics deppend on input of the industry<br />
3<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Methodology and structure<br />
Parameters in main areas are discussed<br />
along the value chain <strong>for</strong>:<br />
Materials<br />
- Poly-Silicon, Crystallization & Wafering<br />
- Cell processing<br />
- Module manufacturing<br />
Process<br />
Products<br />
SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL MODULE SYSTEM<br />
Poly-Si<br />
Ingot wafer cell module system<br />
value chain elements considered by the 4 th edition of the ITR<strong>PV</strong><br />
4<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
AGENDA<br />
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITR<strong>PV</strong><br />
• <strong>PV</strong> learning curve and cost considerations<br />
• ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 rd edition - some results 2012<br />
- Materials<br />
- Processes<br />
- Products<br />
• Summary and Outlook<br />
5<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
The challenging price race of the <strong>PV</strong> industry<br />
1976<br />
2006<br />
06 - 2011<br />
06 - 2012*<br />
01 - 2013<br />
clear goal: competitive <strong>PV</strong>-based power generation<br />
What measures have to be taken to keep path?<br />
The ITR<strong>PV</strong> roadmap describes the way<br />
6<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
Cost considerations<br />
Price drop below cost challenges the <strong>PV</strong> industry<br />
mc-Si module price – 01/13: 0,694 US$/Wp*<br />
PRICES ALONG THE<br />
VALUE CHAIN<br />
(in USD/ Wp)<br />
How to improve the cost position further w/o sacrificing quality and efficiency?<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> helps to set the right markers<br />
* Avg. Module prices end of January 2013 source: BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance), Energy Trend, <strong>PV</strong> Insights.<br />
7<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
Cost considerations<br />
Poly Si price dropped during the last years:<br />
2010: 67$/kg<br />
E 2011: 30$/kg<br />
2H 2012 20$/kg<br />
Module price dropped during the last years:<br />
01 2010: 1.87 $/Wp<br />
01 2013 : 0.69$/Wp<br />
01 2013 : 17$/kg<br />
prices drop below cost<br />
…. in a tough battle<br />
•Avg. Module prices source: BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance), Energy Trend, <strong>PV</strong> Insights.<br />
8<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
AGENDA<br />
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITR<strong>PV</strong><br />
• <strong>PV</strong> learning curve and cost considerations<br />
• ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 rd edition - some results 2012<br />
- Materials<br />
- Processes<br />
- Products<br />
• Summary and Outlook<br />
9<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Materials – Poly - Si / Wafering<br />
Poly-Si:<br />
<strong>PV</strong> grade poly-Si quality between 8N and 9N sufficient, also <strong>for</strong> high eta cells<br />
Poly-Si technologies will improve and<br />
compete <strong>for</strong> cost reductions<br />
umg –Si expected w/ small share<br />
Wafering:<br />
Diamond wire based sawing will become dominant <strong>for</strong> Mono from 2017 on<br />
Synchronization in cell processing needed<br />
Slurry based sawing will be dominating in mc-Si wafering<br />
Kerf less technologies not yet seen as cost competitive against matured technologies<br />
10<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Materials – Cell<br />
Wafer thickness trend had to be revised again<br />
180 …160 µm wafers preferred due to cost benefits vs. material savings<br />
But: gap between module and wafer/cell manufacturer expectations<br />
But: gap between<br />
Requirements of<br />
Manufacturers <strong>for</strong><br />
module and<br />
wafer/cell<br />
11<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Materials - Cell<br />
Reduction of Silver consumption per cell<br />
- necessary as Silver is most expensive material - Cu is supposed to replace<br />
Silver starting in 2015<br />
but <strong>for</strong> Cu, solutions <strong>for</strong> reliability and adhesion have to be available<br />
- mainstream technology in metallization : screen printing <strong>for</strong> years to come<br />
plating will compete from 2015<br />
200mg @1000$/kg = 4.9$cent/Wp<br />
30% of cell convertion cost!<br />
12<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Materials – Modules<br />
Costs of module manufacturing are sensitive to all materials (aprox. equal share)<br />
improvements are implemented in per<strong>for</strong>mance and costs<br />
Approaches <strong>for</strong> per<strong>for</strong>mance increase:<br />
- Reduction of optical losses<br />
i.e. Reflection / Absorption<br />
- Reduction of interconnection losses<br />
Solutions <strong>for</strong> per<strong>for</strong>mance increase<br />
- reduced Glass absorption and Frontside reflexion by AR coatings<br />
- improvement of UV per<strong>for</strong>mance of encapsulants<br />
13<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
AGENDA<br />
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITR<strong>PV</strong><br />
• <strong>PV</strong> learning curve and cost considerations<br />
• ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 rd edition - some results 2012<br />
- Materials<br />
- Processes<br />
- Products<br />
• Summary and Outlook<br />
14<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Processes – Manufacturing (1)<br />
Crystallization:<br />
- Using economy of scale requires<br />
high throughput approaches<br />
accelerated trend to larger ingots<br />
Gen 6 dominates high volume casting<br />
- higher throughput in mono pulling by<br />
increased ingot mass<br />
Wafering:<br />
- increased troughput by<br />
continouse improvement (slurry)<br />
New technology roll out (diamond)<br />
15<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Processes – Manufacturing (2)<br />
Cell production:<br />
- tools have to get increased throughputs<br />
current situation requires<br />
- maturing the per<strong>for</strong>mance of installed base<br />
- focusing on upgrades vs. new invests<br />
the gap between front- and back end should be closed<br />
in-line and clustered fab concepts are possible<br />
Year<br />
Front end [wafer/h]<br />
(chemical + thermal)<br />
Single line back end [wafer/h]<br />
(metallization + classification)<br />
2012 3600 2800<br />
2013-2015 5000 3200<br />
2017 6400 4200<br />
2023 7200 7200<br />
- Improvements result in reduction of relative invest <strong>for</strong> new cell fabs<br />
over the next<br />
16<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Processes – Manufacturing (3)<br />
Module :<br />
- throughput of module tools is expected to increase<br />
Introducing
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Processes – <strong>Technology</strong> ( Cell 1)<br />
Recombination losses have to be reduced<br />
- in the crystalline Si bulk material<br />
- at the front side of the cell<br />
- et the back side of the cell<br />
AL-BSF not suitable below 200fA/cm²<br />
color coding indicates the progress<br />
rear side passivation concepts are ramping in mass production<br />
new production machines need to become mature<br />
improved mc-Si casting boosts material per<strong>for</strong>mance <strong>for</strong> processes w/ lower CoO<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012<br />
18
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Processes – <strong>Technology</strong> ( Cell 2)<br />
Cell front side (n-doped emitters ):<br />
- emitter sheet resistance increase is needed<br />
reduced FS J0 to below 100 fA/cm²<br />
enable contacting by new pasts and/or SE<br />
- Reduction of finger width w/o losses in<br />
conductivity down to 40µm<br />
screen printing improves<br />
new techniques <strong>for</strong> fine line print<br />
CoO has to be competitive<br />
- Improved alignment accuracy <strong>for</strong> SE,<br />
double printing and new cell concepts<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012<br />
19
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Processes – <strong>Technology</strong> (Module)<br />
Trend of cell to module power loss according to ITR<strong>PV</strong><br />
- Improvements in 2013 due to wide introduction of AR glass<br />
- new interconnect<br />
- improved encapsulation techniques<br />
power gain by encapsulation is possible<br />
Gap between alkaline and acidic texturing will remain valid<br />
20<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
AGENDA<br />
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITR<strong>PV</strong><br />
• <strong>PV</strong> learning curve and cost considerations<br />
• ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 rd edition - some results 2012<br />
- Materials<br />
- Processes<br />
- Products<br />
• Summary and Outlook<br />
21<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Products – Crystallization<br />
Material landscape <strong>for</strong> c-Si is expected to diversify (market shares o/a)<br />
Casted mc–Si will develop from<br />
classic mc- Si<br />
HPmc – Si<br />
mono–Si will split<br />
n- type will increase share<br />
p-type will reduce share<br />
share casted / mono is expected shift from 60:40 to 50:50 in 2023<br />
n-type mono material will be used <strong>for</strong> high eta cell concepts<br />
new mc-Si products (HPmc-Si)gain market share vs. conventional mc-Si casting<br />
mono-like material has less share due to non maturation<br />
22<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Products – Cell / Module (1)<br />
Trends <strong>for</strong> Double sided contact c-Si cells<br />
Efficiencies of p-and n-type c-Si cells will rise<br />
- stabilized efficiencies only are considered<br />
- shown are cells out of a state of the art mass<br />
production line<br />
- gap between mono and multi remains valid<br />
Trend of output power of 60 cell modules<br />
- cell efficiency + module improvements included<br />
- trend implies shift to full square Mono<br />
- alkalic texturing is assumed <strong>for</strong> mono/mono-like<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012<br />
23
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Products – Cell / Module (2)<br />
Diversification in c-Si cell concepts and Module products is expected<br />
Double sided contact cells remain main stream<br />
- rear side contact cells up to 35% in 2023<br />
- bi-facial cell concepts are expected<br />
Module size is expected to diversify<br />
- 60 cell modules remain main stream<br />
- > 20% share <strong>for</strong> large modules (≥72)<br />
- 10% share special sizes <strong>for</strong> niche markets<br />
- frameless modules gain market share<br />
(>20% from 2015 onwards)<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012<br />
24
ITR<strong>PV</strong> Results – Products – <strong>PV</strong> Systems<br />
Considerations of BOS cost trend <strong>for</strong> <strong>PV</strong> Systems >100kWp in different reagions<br />
BOS – cost excluding Module cost<br />
- Mounting, wiring, and inverter are most expensive elements<br />
- <strong>PV</strong> system set up is in competition w/ non <strong>PV</strong> industry<br />
i.e. cost reductions compete w/ increasing prices<br />
- Special solutions will reduce mounting cost<br />
Example: EU<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012<br />
25
AGENDA<br />
• Introduction of the 4 th edition of the ITR<strong>PV</strong><br />
• <strong>PV</strong> learning curve and cost considerations<br />
• ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 rd edition - some results 2012<br />
- Materials<br />
- Processes<br />
- Products<br />
• Summary and Outlook<br />
26<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
Summary Challenges – near term<br />
Basic challenge <strong>for</strong> near term: upgrades vs. new invest<br />
• Further reduction in process costs <strong>for</strong> poly-Si<br />
• cell-to-module conversion w/o power loss<br />
• Througput increase (front-end & back-end)<br />
• Efficiency increase with existing lines / technologies<br />
• Ongoing cost reduction<br />
• Silver reduction / plating technologies<br />
27<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
Summary Challenges – mid term / long term<br />
• Further reduction in process costs <strong>for</strong> poly-Si<br />
• Wafer thickness reduction<br />
• Automation & cell-to-module integration<br />
• „new cell concepts“ vs. Standardizes processes<br />
• Ongoing cost reduction<br />
• Silver replacement (printing vs. Plating)<br />
• Different module types<br />
• Glass-glass / frameless<br />
• Efficiency increase as <strong>for</strong>ecasted<br />
• Picking the right / most promising technology (process)<br />
• Implementation of new sawing technologies<br />
28<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
Summary ITR<strong>PV</strong><br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> shows:<br />
- ways to reach cost reduction of <strong>PV</strong> generated electricity<br />
- Efficiency improvements have to be implemented without huge cost increases<br />
- costs per piece have to be reduced continuously in parallel to efficiency increases<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> is a common plat<strong>for</strong>m <strong>for</strong> manufacturers, suppliers, and customers<br />
Conclusion:<br />
- Further reduction of Si-<strong>PV</strong> manufacturing cost is possible<br />
without sacrificing quality and reliability<br />
- Increasing cell efficiencies will support the cost reduction<br />
Next Steps of ITR<strong>PV</strong>:<br />
- Include more manufactures from Asia and America<br />
- Create subgroups w/ focus on high-eta / rear-side concepts<br />
- Include equipment and material suppliers to provide solutions<br />
- Consider more system trends 29<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
Outlook<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> parameter trends considered in different learning scenarios<br />
1) eta gain @ constant cost, 2) cost increase, 3) cost reduction + eta gain<br />
06/2012 12/2012 12/2013 12/2015 12/2017 12/2020 12/2023<br />
Cum. volume shipped (GWp)* 92 110 140 210 310 460 640<br />
Avg. Wp increase - 2% 4% 4% 6% 7% 7%<br />
Scenario 1 ($/Wp) 0.83 0.81 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.65 0,61<br />
Increased complexity - 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%<br />
Scenario 2 ($/Wp) 0,83 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.83 0,83<br />
Cost reduction - 1% 5% 5% 10% 10% 10%<br />
Scenario 3 ($/Wp) 0,83 0.80 0.73 0.67 0.55 0.46 0,38<br />
Module pricing in June 2012<br />
Module pricing in January 2013<br />
= cost level (EU/US/J 0.8 $/Wp; PRC 0.65 $/Wp)**<br />
= below cost<br />
Possible and needed cost reductions will meet prices around 2015<br />
<strong>Roadmap</strong> identifies focus points<br />
efficiency gain is needed; cost reduction is mandatory<br />
* Yearly shipment volume between 30 GWp and 60 GWp<br />
** S. Mehta, GTM Study, Global <strong>PV</strong> Module Manufacturers 2013: Competitive Positioning, Consolidation and the China Factor”October 15, 2012<br />
30<br />
2nd Annual c-Si <strong>PV</strong>MC Workshop,<br />
10 July 2013, San Francisco, USA<br />
ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
<strong>Roadmap</strong> outlook: <strong>PV</strong> learning continues<br />
Efficiency gains and cost reductions per piece have to be combined<br />
31<br />
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ITR<strong>PV</strong> 4 th Edition – Results 2012
Questions?<br />
Stephan Raithel<br />
SEMI Europe<br />
Director <strong>PV</strong> Europe<br />
Helmholtzstrasse 2-9<br />
D-10587 Berlin, Germany<br />
sraithel@semi.org<br />
Cell: +49.170.4731126<br />
Phone:<br />
+49.30.3030807712