US Downstream Market Outlook

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<strong>US</strong> Gulf Coast refinery profitability should remain strong as product markets remain tight . . . 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Forecast in 2004 Dollars per Barrel Heavy Sour Coking Light Sour Coking Light Sour Cat Cracking 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 18
However profitability will likely remain below levels necessary to support new grass roots capacity 12 10 Forecast in 2004 Dollars per Barrel Grass Roots Investment Margin Heavy Sour Coking Margin 8 6 4 2 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 19
Page 1 and 2: US Downstream Industry Outlook and
Page 3 and 4: Purvin & Gertz - Background • Fou
Page 5 and 6: Agenda • About Purvin & Gertz, In
Page 7 and 8: Factors that determine refining mar
Page 9 and 10: Overall U.S. downstream returns hav
Page 11 and 12: Is there enough refinery capacity?
Page 13 and 14: U.S. refinery capacity additions ha
Page 15 and 16: U.S. refinery capacity additions ar
Page 17: Efficiency gains and alternative fu
Page 21 and 22: Agenda • About Purvin & Gertz, In
Page 23 and 24: Canadian production is growing due
Page 25 and 26: Successful downstream strategies wi
Page 27 and 28: US Downstream Industry Outlook and

US Downstream Market Outlook

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