The impacts of climate change on australian - Sustainable Tourism ...

DEVELOPING ADAPTATION AND RESPONSE STRATEGIES—A SCOPING STUDY
• Resources from government and private stakeholders.
• Effective monitoring and evaluation—<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is a moving target.
Economic <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on tourism in the case study regions
This project is the first that examines the likely flow-on effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on tourism activity, or in other
words <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> induced tourism <strong>impacts</strong>, on the regional tourism economies <strong>of</strong> Australia in the modelling
framework <strong>of</strong> a fully bottom-up Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. <strong>The</strong> project was developed in
two stages, first to estimate the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> alone, and then from that basis the <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> tourism
<strong>change</strong>s were measured against the base case. <strong>The</strong> inputs in the first stage <strong>of</strong> the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> effects were
taken from the Garnaut Climate Change Review (Garnaut 2008).
Results indicate that the economy will be adversely affected, and more so in the second half <strong>of</strong> the century
than in the next decade. Overall, the economy declines steadily over time, due to (a) the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> effect on
productivity losses <strong>of</strong> labour, capital and intermediate inputs, and (b) loss <strong>of</strong> export demands from overseas as
tougher international competition against young developing countries increases. <strong>The</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> capital productivity
makes the economy relatively more capital intensive; thus investment becomes an important driver <strong>of</strong> growth.
Coupled with the lower level <strong>of</strong> productivity, the loss <strong>of</strong> overseas exports results in a reduction in domestic
production, which subsequently reduces labour income and household consumption. In a comparison, the
adverse impact <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> falls more on wage earners than on owners <strong>of</strong> capital.
Tourism impact in the context <strong>of</strong> this project is an extension <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> analysis, which explicitly
attempts to measure the flow-on effect <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on tourism activity by applying guesstimates <strong>of</strong>
tourists’ responses to losses <strong>of</strong> tourist attraction. In the longer term, it is almost a case that losses <strong>of</strong> tourist
attraction imply losses <strong>of</strong> tourism demand.
Lower demand for tourism has the effect <strong>of</strong> stimulating mining and manufacturing to expand their outputs
and exports further. Given that the tourism sector is labour intensive, while mining and manufacturing are
relatively more capital intensive, this diversion <strong>of</strong> resources actually shifts the structure <strong>of</strong> the economy toward
being more capital intensive. <strong>The</strong> negative impact on wage earners is exacerbated.
At the national level, the total <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> induced tourism <strong>impacts</strong> given in this report is insignificant,
as this project examines only five out <strong>of</strong> many tourism destinations in Australia. If all destinations across
Australia are taken into account, the national impact would be very likely significant.
At the regional level, tourism <strong>impacts</strong> are not distributed evenly across tourism destinations, as it largely
depends on how tourism-reliant a destination is. <strong>The</strong> Victorian Alps region is the hardest hit region, because its
tourism output shares 25% in the total output produced by the region; the second hardest hit region is the
Tropical North Queensland, with 13% <strong>of</strong> tourism share.
It is important to note that the flow-on effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on tourism activity in fact are an endogenous
factor in the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> process. And it is these <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> induced tourism <strong>impacts</strong> that can <strong>change</strong> the
actual impact level <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> as a whole on a region. Results in Chapter 8 points out that Kakadu is the
most affected region under the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> effect alone, the rest <strong>of</strong> Northern Territory and the rest <strong>of</strong>
Australia are the next two regions after Kakadu. However, when the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> induced tourism <strong>impacts</strong> are
considered, Alpine Victoria and Tropical North Queensland (Cairns) are the most affected regions. As a result,
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> analysis, without further consideration <strong>of</strong> its induced tourism impact, will very likely
underestimate the total economic costs to a region under <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> effects.
Integration across case studies
Common points across regions
• Significant knowledge gaps around <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, level <strong>of</strong> uncertainty and adaptation.
• Degree <strong>of</strong> scepticism in the community that <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> is associated with anthropogenic behaviour.
• Better communication is needed across sectors, i.e. government, tourist industry, community and
researchers, on the likely <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> and how to adapt to avoid duplication.
• Need to consider the importance <strong>of</strong> the community in creating, influencing, and contributing to the sense
<strong>of</strong> place and making tourism possible.
• In all regions, tourism demand could be reduced by <strong>change</strong>s which affect the character <strong>of</strong> the landscape,
the region’s economy or the strength <strong>of</strong> community spirit.
• Bigger operators were more likely than smaller operators to be planning and responding to <strong>impacts</strong> by
implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies. <strong>The</strong>y are more likely to have the resources to act, and
may have a responsibility to shareholders to manage the risks <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>impacts</strong>.
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