The impacts of climate change on australian - Sustainable Tourism ...

DEVELOPING ADAPTATION AND RESPONSE STRATEGIES—A SCOPING STUDY
<strong>The</strong> CSIRO <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> report commissioned as part <strong>of</strong> this study (Hennessey et al. 2008) recommended
the use <strong>of</strong> the high (A1F1), medium (A1B) and low (B1) scenarios for <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> projections for the five
tourist destinations. <strong>The</strong>ir report notes that the low emission (B1) scenario is unlikely over the next two decades
because the mid-high emission scenarios are currently being tracked and this will probably continue due to
activities in China and India until at least 2030, as noted in the Garnaut Report (2008). However, up until 2020,
the emission scenarios are tightly clustered, so the A1B (medium) scenario is used. Beyond 2030, there is greater
uncertainty about emissions, so the CSIRO Report has provided high, medium and low emission scenarios for
2050 and 2070. <strong>The</strong> B1 scenario (low emissions) for post-2030 assumes that C0 2 -equivalent concentrations will
stabilise at about 550 ppmv, which is one <strong>of</strong> the scenarios considered in the Garnaut Report (2008).
<strong>The</strong>re is considerable confusion in the wider community about ‘<strong>climate</strong> variability’ and ‘<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>’.
Climate variability refers to natural variations in the <strong>climate</strong> system around a so-called stationary <strong>climate</strong> (Figure
8). Climate attributes, such as rainfall and temperatures, vary from year to year and socioeconomic systems are
designed to cope with any variability, within a stationary <strong>climate</strong> regime. <strong>The</strong> World is currently entering a
period <strong>of</strong> changing <strong>climate</strong> (Figure 8); in fact there is evidence that this phase was entered in the mid-1970s
(Figure 3), and anthropogenic forcing <strong>of</strong> the <strong>climate</strong> system is now the dominant forcing mechanism. Beyond the
coping range (Figure 8) socioeconomic and biophysical systems will have to adapt to a changing <strong>climate</strong> with
increased variability.
Figure 8: A conceptual diagram <strong>of</strong> the planning horizon timeframe in the context <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> variability
and <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>
SOURCE: Jones & Mearns 2005, cited in Hennessey et al. 2008
Throughout this report both adaptation to and mitigation <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> are referred to, which may be
defined as:
1. Adaptation to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> consists <strong>of</strong> initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability <strong>of</strong> natural
and human systems against actual or expected <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> effects (IPCC 2007). Adaptation is seen as
a necessary step to attend to <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> effects already built into long-term <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>s already
set in motion by past or present greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Mitigation <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> involves taking actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to enhance
sinks aimed at reducing the extent <strong>of</strong> global warming (IPCC 2007). This is distinct from adaptation to
<strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>, which involves taking action to minimise the effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>.
Adaptation is seen as a more immediate, necessary, short-term action, while mitigation mechanisms involve
the development and deployment <strong>of</strong> new technologies, fuels and the like. Both are clearly linked—and may act
for or against each other. For example, increased use <strong>of</strong> air conditioning may be an adaptation, but their use <strong>of</strong>
energy (arising from fossil fuels) will act against mitigation.
As noted above, the primary goal <strong>of</strong> this research was to gauge current knowledge and preparedness at the
business and tourism destination level, via a social learning approach. As such, while the technical definitions
above are useful in the science and policy realms, such distinctions do not readily appear at the community /
tourism destination level—and this report has therefore sought to represent its findings as generated by study
participants themselves and without such sharp distinction.
Climate <strong>change</strong> adaptation, as referred to in this technical report, is those strategies that can be implemented
to build resilience and resistance in systems, whether they be environmental, social, economic or business
systems, in light <strong>of</strong> the anticipated <strong>change</strong>s in <strong>climate</strong> that have been forecast by CSIRO and other international
<strong>climate</strong> research bodies, such as the IPCC (2007).
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