The impacts of climate change on australian - Sustainable Tourism ...

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THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AUSTRALIAN TOURISM DESTINATIONS research to draw on, both for the Great Barrier Reef and the Wet Tropics Rainforests, whereas destinations such as Kakadu, the Barossa Valley and the Blue Mountains had considerably fewer published papers outlining biophysical <strong>impacts</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong>. Despite differences in the quality and quantity <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> studies across the destinations, estimates <strong>of</strong> biophysical <strong>impacts</strong> were seen as being highly critical in terms <strong>of</strong> articulating anticipated <strong>change</strong>s to the stakeholders attending the workshops. To this end, considerable thought and effort were put into the task <strong>of</strong> developing a simple but defendable approach to communicating these <strong>change</strong>s to participants. <strong>The</strong> approach adopted across all case study destinations (except for the Victorian Alps) was modelled on that <strong>of</strong> a recently published paper by Scott, Amelung, Becken, Ceron, Dubois, Gossling, Peeters and Simpson (2007), which linked projected <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> to <strong>change</strong>s in biophysical components <strong>of</strong> the landscape in a particular national park in Canada (see Figure 9). Figure 9: National park visitor survey—environmental <strong>change</strong> scenarios NOTE: Respondents were not provided any timeframe for the three scenarios, but scenario 1 approximates the 2020s, scenario 2 approximates the 2050s and scenario 3 approximates the 2080s SOURCE: Scott et al. 2007 14
DEVELOPING ADAPTATION AND RESPONSE STRATEGIES—A SCOPING STUDY <strong>The</strong> main benefit <strong>of</strong> this approach lies with the fact that it effectively removes confusion regarding which emission scenario is being used to generate the biophysical response (in addition to all <strong>of</strong> the other uncertainties <strong>of</strong> the model). To explain, their study, which focussed on visitor responses to anticipated <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> in a national park in Canada, <strong>of</strong>fered three dateless scenarios, ranging from minimal <strong>change</strong>s, to medium <strong>change</strong>, to moderate <strong>change</strong> from present conditions. <strong>The</strong>y then categorised these <strong>change</strong>s against a range <strong>of</strong> indicators that were likely to represent a common language across all stakeholder groups. For example, some <strong>of</strong> the ‘types <strong>of</strong> environmental <strong>change</strong>’ they listed included ‘total number <strong>of</strong> mammal species in the park’, ‘number <strong>of</strong> mammal species lost from the park’, ‘population <strong>of</strong> grizzly bears, moose and big horn sheep’, ‘number <strong>of</strong> glaciers in the park’… all <strong>of</strong> these indicators tap into what visitors want from their tourism experience at that particular destination. <strong>The</strong>se aspects <strong>of</strong> visitor expectations can likely be pulled from the desktop review <strong>of</strong> existing tourism in each destination, such that each destination will be able to provide stakeholders with a range <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios for things they care about. Against these types <strong>of</strong> environmental <strong>change</strong>, Scott et al. (2007) provided three scenarios, which were linked to projections from biophysical scientists working on 2020, 2050 and 2080 timelines (Figure 9). However, they did not provide the tourists with these timelines—instead they simply listed the anticipated <strong>change</strong>s across these three scenarios and asked tourists how they might respond to these ‘hypothetical’ <strong>change</strong>s with respect to the likelihood <strong>of</strong> visitation and the duration <strong>of</strong> their visits in the future. In many ways, this approach enables us to move away with uncertainty and ‘lack <strong>of</strong> belief’ in the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> scenarios. Whether this makes the economic modelling component too hard to deal with is something explored later, but <strong>of</strong>fering a range <strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong>s to charismatic megafauna, or plants, or corals or whatever—so long as it is a common language for all stakeholders—represents an excellent way <strong>of</strong> assessing the desire and capacity <strong>of</strong> stakeholders to implement adaptation (or other) strategies in light <strong>of</strong> the <strong>of</strong>fered <strong>change</strong>s. This approach (Figure 9) was modified for Kakadu, Cairns, the Blue Mountains and the Barossa Valley. Given that the scenarios were being presenting to nominated workshop participants (not randomly selected tourists) it was decided to include timeframes for the three scenarios (2020, 2050 and 2070). <strong>The</strong> rationale for this was that the workshop participants had a generally good working knowledge <strong>of</strong> the <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> issues for their regions, albeit at a range <strong>of</strong> levels. 15
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